Affordable Preliminary HOUSING Data Study Report September 26, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Affordable

September 26, 2013

HOUSING

Study

Preliminary Data Report

Purpose

Compiles existing information to establish the context for affordable housing. Identify information gaps.

POPULATION

212,900 People in 2013

5 9.6% from 2000-2010 5 15.1% from 2000-2010 Metro Washington Region

POPULATION

Arlington looks very different from the region

Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over

Metropolitan Washington Region

Male Female

Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over

Arlington County

10% 5% 5% 10% 10% 5% 5% 10%

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1: P12

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1: P12

Population Distribution by Age and Sex

POPULATION

A closer look at age distribution and change

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 SF1

• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Percent change in population from 2000-2010 by age range

POPULATION

A closer look at age distribution and change

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1

• 100%
• 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Age cohort in 2010

Percent change in population from 2000-2010 by age cohort

POPULATION

Comparison of Change in Population by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Arlington and DC Metro Region 2000-2010

• 20.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

Hispanic or Latino White Black/African American Asian/Pacific Islander Other/Multi-Racial

Arlington DC Region

POPULATION

Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin by Jurisdiction 2010

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Hispanic or Latino White Black/African American Asian/Pacific Islander Other/Multi-Racial

District of Columbia, District of Columbia Montgomery County, Maryland Prince George's County, Maryland Arlington County, Virginia Fairfax County, Virginia Alexandria city, Virginia

HOUSEHOLDS

Household Income by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin 2011 Estimates

Source: US Census American Community Survey 2011 5-year Estimates

White (Non-hispanic) Asian

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Less than $30,000 $30,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000

• r more

Households

POPULATION - FORECAST

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Cumulative Change over 2010

Employment Population Households

Employment, Population and Households Forecast through 2040

HOUSING MARKET

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Apartment Rent

$1,999 $1,768 $1,311

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Salary Average Apartment Rent

$6,740/month

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Salary Retail trade Hospitality and Food Services Average Apartment Rent

$2,408/month $2,026/month

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Arlington County Rent and Vacancy Surveys

Cumulative Change in Average Rent Compared to Change in Average Salaries 2003-2013

HOUSING MARKET

Source: Arlington County Housing Division, Rent and Vacancy Surveys

Inventory of Market Affordable and Committed Affordable Units 2000-2012

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MARKs up to 60% AMI

• Net Loss of 11,547

Committed Affordable Units

• Net Gain of 2665

MARKs from 60% to 80% AMI

• Net Gain of 3,143 Units

From 2000 to 2012

• 11,547 Units

HOUSING MARKET

Source: Arlington County Housing Division, Rent and Vacancy Surveys

So Where have the MARKs Gone?

1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5% 1,367 Net Redevelopment 11.8% 581 Redevelopment CAFs 5.0% 1,948 Preserved as CAFs 16.9%

1,419 Renovation 12.3%

1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5% 1,367 Net Redevelopment 11.8% 581 Redevelopment CAFs 5.0%

1,948 Preserved as CAFs 16.9%

1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5% 1,367 Net Redevelopment 11.8%

581 Redevelopment CAFs 5.0%

1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5%

1,367 Net Redevelopment 11.8% 1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5%

1,218 Condo Conversion 10.5% 1,367 Net Redevelopment 11.8% 581 Redevelopment CAFs 5.0% 1,948 Preserved as CAFs 16.9% 1,419 Renovation 12.3%

5,014 Rent Increase 43.4%

HOUSING MARKET

Homeownership Rate

46.60%

• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Hartford, CT New York, NY Boston, MA Providence, RI CharlottesVAlle, VA Buffalo, NY District of Columbia Richmond, VA Milwaukee, WI Arlington County,VA Atlanta, GA Wilmington, DE Seattle, WA San Diego, CA Baltimore,MD Minneapolis, MN Denver, CO Portland, OR San Jose, CA

HOUSING MARKET

Snapshot of Housing Market

MIPAP Qualifying (Under $362,790) June 10, 2013 Bedrooms Property Type Inventory Condo/Coop 9 1 Condo/Coop 57 Single Family Residential 1 Townhouse 2 2 Condo/Coop 31 Single Family Residential 1 Townhouse 3 3 Townhouse 1 Total 105

Of 448 listed properties Source: Redfin

Goal 6: Serious Housing Need

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Housing Choice Vouchers Section 202 & Section 8* Housing Grants Other

Arlington Households Receiving Rental Assistance

*not administered or monitored by Arlington County

625 1,383

HOMELESSNESS

Results from 2013 Point-in-Time Count

• 479 persons counted January 30, 2013
• 6.2% one-year increase 2012-2013
• 6.3% decrease over five years 2009-2013
• 30% unsheltered
• Homeless ratio of 22 persons per 10,000

Also of note:

• Time in shelters has decreased 28%
• Average shelter stay 3.9 months

AFFORDABLE LIVING

Housing $25,590 35% Transportation $10,889 15% Food $8,342 12% Personal Insurance & Pensions $10,004 14% Healthcare $4,306 6% All Other $13,317 18%

Source: U.S. BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Washington, DC Area Average Annual Expenditures 2010-2011

Diversity

• Importance of supporting affordable access to

housing for lower income households to maintain cultural and racial diversity, as well as economic diversity.

• Need for at least 21,000 additional housing

units by 2040. Affordability of new housing will impact the future demographic make-up

• f Arlington.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

Affordable Homeownership

• Opportunities limited to 1 and 2-bedroom

condominiums and townhomes.

• ¼ of “for-sale” housing is within the price

limit of the County’s Moderate Income Purchase Assistance Program.

• Condominium and HOA fees further constrain

affordability.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

Affordability Gap

• Rents have increased, and lower wage

incomes have stagnated creating a wider gap in affordability.

• AMI growth outpaces lower wage growth.
• Affordability gap widening for CAF units as

well.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

Interrelatedness

• Majority of households receiving Housing

Grants and Housing Choice Vouchers live in CAF units.

• One third of CAF units are occupied by

persons receiving Housing Grants or Housing Choice Vouchers.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

What we don’t know

• Detailed information on household income

by family size.

• Estimates for households with persons with

disabilities.

• Housing preferences.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS