Arizona State Funding Project: Addressing the Teacher Labor Market Challenge Executive Summary Research conducted by Education Resource Strategies
Key y fin findin ings 1. Student outcomes in Arizona lag behind the rest of the nation. 2. Arizona struggles to attract and retain a strong and effective teacher workforce. 3. Low teacher salaries are a primary challenge leading to this unhealthy teacher labor market. 4. Arizona per pupil funding and state commitment to K-12 funding is low and declining. 5. Addressing the teacher workforce challenge will require new and strategic investments. 6. Arizona districts may have some limited opportunities to shift current spending, but the state will need to generate additional revenue for teacher salary investments. 2
Student outcomes in in Ariz izona la lag behind the rest of the nation Key Findings
Ariz rizona stu tudents have mad ade so some recent gain ains on th the NAEP as assessment in in readin ing 4 Source: “Funding PreK - 12 Education,” 110 th Arizona Town Hall Final Report
on th But Bu t overall the recent NAEP as Average Scale Score 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 207 New Mexico ll Ariz Alaska California Nevada rizona perf Mississippi 215 Arizona Hawaii West Virginia Louisiana Michigan Alabama assessment 2015 NAEP Average Scale Score, 4th Grade Reading South Carolina rformance remain Arkansas Texas National average = 223 Tennessee South Dakota Oregon Kansas Source: ERS analysis based on NAEP Data Explorer Illinois Idaho Georgia Oklahoma Maryland Minnesota Wisconsin Missouri New York ins at Delaware Maine Colorado Iowa t th Ohio the bottom end of North Dakota Montana Rhode Island Utah North Carolina Washington Pennsylvania Nebraska Indiana Florida Wyoming Kentucky Connecticut New Jersey Virginia Vermont f all New Hampshire 235 all states Massachusetts 5
…where it has been for over a decade 2015 NAEP Average Scale Score, 4th Grade Reading, Arizona vs. U.S., 2003-2015 240 Arizona U.S. 235 230 225 Average scale score 223 222 221 221 221 219 218 220 215 213 215 212 210 210 209 210 207 205 200 195 190 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Arizona NAEP 4 th 43/50 47/50 47/50 47/50 45/50 45/50 44/50 grade reading rank 6 Source: ERS analysis based on NAEP Data Explorer; NAEP reading rank based on average scale score
Ariz izona strugg ggles to attract and retain a strong and effective teacher workforce Key Findings
However, as as a a resu sult lt of f high tu turnover an and attrit itio ion, Ariz rizona stu tudents ar are unlik likely ly to have a a high ighly ly effecti tive teac acher th three year ars in in a a row Likelihood of student assignment to a novice or uncredentialled teacher in Arizona Research shows that teachers become more effective in producing student C E F G H I J A B D achievement gains after the first two Student years of teaching , with continued increases in gains as experience increases. Year 1 Additionally, research shows that teachers without certification are Year 2 significantly less likely to produce gains in student achievement. Year 3 Novice/uncredentialled teacher or long-term sub Source: ERS analysis using data from “A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S. ,” Learning Policy Institute; NCES Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Teachers [State] 2014-15; “Finding and Keeping Educators for Arizona’s Classrooms,” Morrison Institute for Public Policy 2017; “ Superintendent Annual Financial Report FY17; Does Teacher Preparation Matter? Evidence about Teacher Certification, Teach for America, and Teacher Effectiveness,” Linda Darling Hammond, Deborah J. Holtzman, Su Jin 8 Gatlin & Julian Vasquez Heilig, 2005; “Does teaching experience increase teacher effectiveness? A review of the research,” Learning Policy Institute 2016
Ariz izona teachers le leave th the teachin ing profession at t th the hig ighest rate in in th the countr try, , nearly ly 3x x hig igher th than th the natio tional media ian Rate of Teacher Attrition (Leavers) 2013 20% 19% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% National median = 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 0% Massachusetts Ohio Pennsylvania Arkansas California Illinois Georgia North Carolina Oklahoma Missouri Connecticut Colorado Florida Alabama Iowa Washington Virginia Kansas New York New Jersey Indiana Louisiana Michigan Minnesota Wisconsin South Carolina Kentucky Texas Arizona Source: ERS analysis using data from “A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S.”, Learn ing Policy Institute 2016. Note: data is only 9 available for 29 states
Co Consid iderin ing all all teac achers who leave th their sc schools ls, , AZ Z has as th the highest tu turn rnover in in th the U.S., .S., with ith close lose to a a quarter of f teachers lea leavin ing th their ir sc schools ls an annually lly, nearly ly double th the natio ional l media ian of f 14% Rate of Teacher Turnover (Movers & Leavers) 2013 30% 24% 25% Data from the Arizona 20% Department of Education shows that since 2013, 42% 15% National median = 14% of Arizona teachers left within 3 years of being 10% 7% hired. 22% of the teachers 5% hired from 2013-2015 lasted only one year. 0% Rhode Island Utah West Virginia New Jersey Pennsylvania Illinois New Hampshire Washington Vermont Maine Nebraska Wyoming California Connecticut New York Maryland Oregon South Dakota Michigan Georgia Ohio Idaho Tennessee Iowa Massachusetts Arkansas Alabama Missouri Florida North Dakota Virginia Colorado Kansas Indiana Kentucky Minnesota Wisconsin Alaska South Carolina Delaware Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma Montana Nevada Hawaii Texas Louisiana New Mexico Arizona Source: ERS analysis using data from “A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S.”, Learning Policy Institute 201 6; “Finding and Keeping 10 Educators for Arizona’s Classrooms,” Morrison Institute for Public Policy 2017
Ariz rizona is s in th the bottom fiv five of f all all states for r percent of f teac achers with thin in th their ir fir first tw two year ars in in th the clas lassroom 35% Percent Novice Teachers, 2013-14 High turnover and attrition means more inexperienced 29% 30% teachers. But research shows that teachers become more effective in producing student achievement gains after the first 25% two years of teaching, with continued increases in gains as experience increases. 20% 15% 15% National median = 12% 10% 6% 5% 0% Florida Colorado Utah Indiana Arizona Wisconsin Hawaii Idaho Nevada New Mexico Texas Maryland Massachusetts Nebraska Wyoming Mississippi Oklahoma Louisiana Kansas North Dakota North Carolina Arkansas Illinois South Dakota Missouri South Carolina Alabama West Virginia Montana Delaware Minnesota New Jersey Alaska Virginia Kentucky Ohio Tennessee Oregon Iowa Michigan Maine California Vermont Connecticut New York Pennsylvania Washington Rhode Island New Hampshire Georgia Source: ERS analysis using data from “A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S.”, Learn ing Policy Institute 2016; “Does teaching experience 11 increase teacher effectiveness? A review of the research”, Learning Policy Institute 2016
High tu turnover r an and attrit itio ion in Ariz rizona contr trib ibutes to th the impact of f th the ongoin ing (n (natio ional) l) teacher sh shortage Count of Statewide Teacher Shortages in Easiest to Staff Areas (2017-18) 6 5 5 Arizona reports more 4 teacher shortages in “easy 4 to staff areas” than all but four states. 3 In a recent survey, 81% of administrators reported 2 difficulty hiring new National median = 1 teachers. 1 0 Washington Vermont Utah Texas Pennsylvania Oregon North Carolina New York New Jersey Mississippi Michigan Maine Kansas Iowa Indiana Illinois Georgia Connecticut New Mexico New Hampshire Massachusetts Kentucky Hawaii Florida Delaware Colorado Arkansas Alaska Wisconsin Tennessee Montana Missouri Minnesota California Alabama Wyoming Virginia South Dakota South Carolina Rhode Island Ohio North Dakota Nebraska Maryland West Virginia Arizona Oklahoma Nevada Louisiana Idaho Source: ERS analysis using data from U.S. Department of Education Teacher Shortage Areas Nationwide Listing June 2017; “Finding and Keeping Educators for Arizona’s Classrooms,” Morrison Institute for Public Policy 2017; ‘Easiest to staff” areas are defined here as the arts, early childhood, elementary education (general), English 12 language arts, Social studies/humanities; For AK 2016-17 is most recent year of data
Low teacher sala laries are a primary ry challenge le leading to this unhealthy teacher la labor market Key Findings
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