Activity in FY2012 ‐ 2013 and research plan in FY2014 Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies The 19 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan December 13 ‐ 14, 2013 This workshop is supported by S ‐ 6 ‐ 1 and A ‐ 1103 of Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, SATREPS, JCM, and Climate Change Research Program in NIES.
Agenda of the 19 th AIM International Workshop • Session 1: Opening session. • Session 2 & 3: Asian LCS sessions. • Session 4: JCM session. • Session 5, 7 & 9: Modeling sessions. • Session 6: Impact session. • Session 8: Poster session. • Session 10: Closing session 2
Asia ‐ Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Asia ‐ Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages. The model is extended to sustainable development with Asian researchers. http://www ‐ iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ 3
Brief History of AIM and its application AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countries AIM/Enduse [Global] Low Assessment of long ‐ term global scenario using AIM/CGE [Global] Carbon AIM/CGE [Japan] & AIM/Air Sustainable Snapshot tool/ExSS Society AIM/Climate Impact Assessment Models Carbon tax policy in Japan IPCC SRES and other long ‐ term scenarios UNEP/GEO EMF ECO ‐ ASIA MA JPN mid ‐ term target 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 19 19 19 90 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 20 30 50 00 91 92 93 LLGHG&SLCP Japan UK Joint AIM Training ( ‐ FY2018) Project ( ‐ FY2007) WS (FY1997 ‐ ) BOCM ‐ MRV COP Side Event LoCARNet AIM Workshop (FY2005 ‐ ) (FY1995 ‐ ) SATREPS ( ‐ FY2015) Start of AIM Publication Japan LCS Project JCM Project (FY1990 ‐ ) LCS ‐ RNet of SRES ( ‐ FY2008) Fukushima COP3 COP8 Asia LCS Project 4 @Kyoto @Delhi ( ‐ FY2013)
Contents of Present AIM Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World S6 SATREPS carbon tax IPCC/WG3 GHG emissions B ‐ 052 Emission Model SDPG Simple Climate Model 2A ‐ 1103 A ‐ 0808 NIES B ‐ 54 【 Account model 】 【 Global 】 long ‐ term vision 【 Enduse model 】 【 Country 】 AIM/Impact temperature [Policy] IR3S 【 Economic model 】 【 Local/City 】 Impact/Adaptation Model S4 scenario NIES 【 sequential 【 dynamic IPCC/WG2 mid ‐ term target feedback dynamics 】 optimization 】 S10 CCPG_PJ3 Agriculture IPCC/integrated scenario low carbon scenario S3 NIES S5 S7 future society Model World Fukushima Water water CCPG_PJ2 NIES NIES Other Models Human health Tokyo Population Transportation Residential S8 【 Global 】 【 National/Local 】 Burden share Stock ‐ flow Accounting adaptation 5
Activities in FY2012 ‐ 2013 • Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ – S ‐ 6: Asia LCS – S ‐ 8: Impact analysis – S ‐ 10: Global risk due to climate change – 2A ‐ 1103: Global scenario and Japan’s mitigation study – 2RF ‐ 1302: Local data in China & Korea toward S ‐ 12 • SATREPS (JICA ‐ JST) • JCM: Joint Crediting Mechanism (MOEJ) • Climate Change Research Program (NIES) • Fukushima Project Office (NIES) 6
S ‐ 6, ERTDF Low Carbon Asia Research Project • How much will GHG emissions from Asia need to be reduced to halve global emissions by 2050 (2 degree target)? 7 Symposium: “Challenges to Low Carbon Asia” at UNU, 17 October 2013
S ‐ 6, ERTDF Ten Actions for Realizing a Low Carbon Asia 8
S ‐ 6, ERTDF Two future scenarios in S ‐ 6 project Advanced Society Scenario Conventional Society Scenario Overall Features Society that is highly motivated and actively working to Society that is cautious about making changes to social achieve a transition to next ‐ generation social systems, systems, programs, technologies and so on and that is programs, technologies etc. concerned about the transition costs of social change. Economy Average annual growth rate: Average annual growth rate: 3.27%/year (global) 4.16%/year (Asia) 2.24%/year (global) 2.98%/year (Asia) Population Total population in 2050: Total population in 2050: 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) Education Active efforts to improve education Standard improvements to educational policy Average number of years of schooling: Average number of years of schooling: 4 ‐ 12 years (2005) → 11 ‐ 14 years (2050) 4 ‐ 12 years (2005) → 8 ‐ 13 years (2050) Use of Time Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period of time spent on work and career advancement of time spent on time with family and friends Work Unemployment rate of 0% achieved by 2075 Fixed at 2009 level Government Efficiency Improved from a comparatively early stage Improved gradually at a slow pace International Lower trade barriers and reduced foreign direct Gradual progress in establishing cooperative Cooperation investment risk relationships among countries in Asia Technical Innovation High rate of advancement Gradual advancement Transportation Increased demand resulting from high economic growth Gradual increase in demand rate Land Use Speedy and efficient land improvement Gradual and cautious land improvement Summarized by Ms. Kawase 9
S ‐ 6, ERTDF GHG emission reductions by “Ten actions” in Asia Reduction by Action 1: Urban Transport 80 Reduction by Action 2: Interregional 70 Transport Reduction by Action 3: Resources & Materials GHG emissions [GtCO2eq/year] 60 Reduction by Action 4: Buildings Reduction by Action 5: Biomass 50 Reduction by Action 6: Energy System 40 Reduction by Action 7: Agriculture & Livestock 30 Reduction by Action 8: Forestry & Land Use Other reduction 20 GHG emission in Asia (low carbon society) 10 Global GHG emission (low carbon society) 0 Global GHG emission (reference society) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Calculated by Dr. Fujimori 10
S ‐ 6, ERTDF Developed National & Local Scenarios 11 http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
2A ‐ 1103, ERTDF SSPs (Shard Socioeconomic Pathways) Primary energy supply Population (EJ) (bil. persons) 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 0 2000 2000 Population Primary Energy Supply 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 SSP1 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 2060 2060 2070 SSP2 2070 2080 2080 2090 2090 2100 2100 SSP3 GDP GHG emissions Calculated by Dr. Fujimori (tri. US$@2005) (GtCO2eq) 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80 0 0 2000 2000 SSP4 GHG emissions GDP 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 SSP5 2050 2050 2060 2060 2070 2070 2080 2080 12 2090 2090 3 2100 2100
2A ‐ 1103, ERTDF IAMC: Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium The 6 th Annual meeting was held at NIES, October 28 ‐ 30, 2013. • – Modeling Impacts and Adaptation in Integrated Assessment – Using Integrated Assessment Models to Inform Near ‐ Term International Policy Discussions – Modeling Energy Demand in Integrated Assessment – Understanding Mitigation, Adaptation, and Impacts through a Multi ‐ Objective Lens 13
2A ‐ 1103, ERTDF Other international works • EMF30 • ADVANCE • LIMITS • Ag ‐ MIP • COBHAM • LCS ‐ RNet • LoCARNet 14
2A ‐ 1103, ERTDF 450/550 ppm pathways and technology options using Energy system backcasting model 90 18 Baseline ‐ AllTech China Baseline ‐ AllTech Global GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] Baseline ‐ NoCCS Baseline ‐ NoCCS 80 16 BaU Baseline ‐ NucOff Baseline ‐ NucOff 70 14 Baseline ‐ LimSW Baseline ‐ LimSW GHG 排出量 [GtCO2e/yr] GHG 排出量 [GtCO2e/yr] Baseline ‐ LimBio Baseline ‐ LimBio 60 12 450 ‐ AllTech 450 ‐ AllTech 550 ppm 450 ‐ NoCCS 450 ‐ NoCCS 10 50 450 ‐ NucOff 450 ‐ NucOff 40 8 450 ‐ LimSW 450 ‐ LimSW 450 ‐ LimBio 450 ‐ LimBio 6 30 450 ppm 550 ‐ AllTech 550 ‐ AllTech 550 ‐ NoCCS 550 ‐ NoCCS 20 4 550 ‐ NucOff 550 ‐ NucOff 2 10 550 ‐ LimSW 550 ‐ LimSW 550 ‐ LimBio 550 ‐ LimBio 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 12.0 India Baseline ‐ AllTech 3.0 Baseline ‐ AllTech OECD Japan and Korea GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] Baseline ‐ NoCCS Baseline ‐ NoCCS GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] 10.0 Baseline ‐ NucOff 2.5 Baseline ‐ NucOff Baseline ‐ LimSW GHG 排出量 [GtCO2e/yr] Baseline ‐ LimSW Baseline ‐ LimBio GHG 排出量 [GtCO2e/yr] 8.0 Baseline ‐ LimBio 450 ‐ AllTech 2.0 450 ‐ AllTech 450 ‐ NoCCS 450 ‐ NoCCS 6.0 450 ‐ NucOff 1.5 450 ‐ NucOff 450 ‐ LimSW 450 ‐ LimSW 450 ‐ LimBio 4.0 450 ‐ LimBio 1.0 550 ‐ AllTech 550 ‐ AllTech 550 ‐ NoCCS 550 ‐ NoCCS 2.0 550 ‐ NucOff 0.5 550 ‐ NucOff 550 ‐ LimSW 550 ‐ LimSW 550 ‐ LimBio 550 ‐ LimBio 0.0 0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 15 Calculated by Dr. Ashina
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