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Activity in FY2012 2013 and research plan in FY2014 Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies The 19 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan December 13 14, 2013 This workshop is supported by S 6 1 and A

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SLIDE 1

Activity in FY2012‐2013 and research plan in FY2014

Toshihiko Masui

National Institute for Environmental Studies The 19th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan December 13‐14, 2013

This workshop is supported by S‐6‐1 and A‐1103 of Environment Research and Technology Development Fund

  • f the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, SATREPS, JCM, and Climate Change Research Program in NIES.
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SLIDE 2

Agenda of the 19th AIM International Workshop

  • Session 1: Opening session.
  • Session 2 & 3: Asian LCS sessions.
  • Session 4: JCM session.
  • Session 5, 7 & 9: Modeling sessions.
  • Session 6: Impact session.
  • Session 8: Poster session.
  • Session 10: Closing session

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SLIDE 3

Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages. The model is extended to sustainable development with Asian researchers. http://www‐iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

3

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SLIDE 4

Brief History of AIM and its application

4

19 90 19 94 19 97 20 00 20 04 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 20 20 50 21 00 20 02 20 05

AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countries

19 95

Impact Assessment Models

20 01

Low Carbon & Sustainable Society

Japan LCS Project (‐FY2008) LCS‐RNet Asia LCS Project (‐FY2013) Japan UK Joint Project (‐FY2007) COP3 @Kyoto COP8 @Delhi AIM Training WS (FY1997‐) COP Side Event (FY2005‐) SATREPS (‐FY2015) Publication

  • f SRES

Start of AIM Project (FY1990‐) AIM Workshop (FY1995‐) Assessment of long‐term global scenario using AIM/CGE [Global] AIM/Enduse [Global] AIM/CGE [Japan] AIM/Air AIM/Climate

ECO‐ASIA EMF MA UNEP/GEO IPCC SRES and other long‐term scenarios JPN mid‐term target Carbon tax policy in Japan

20 12

BOCM‐MRV LoCARNet Snapshot tool/ExSS

19 91 19 92 19 93 19 96 19 98 19 99 20 30 20 13 20 03 20 14

JCM LLGHG&SLCP (‐FY2018) Fukushima

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SLIDE 5

Model World

Contents of Present AIM

5

Impact/Adaptation Model Emission Model 【Country】 【Global】 【Enduse model】 【Economic model】 【Account model】 【sequential dynamics】 【dynamic

  • ptimization】

【Local/City】

Agriculture Water Human health

Simple Climate Model Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHG emissions temperature

【Global】 【National/Local】

feedback AIM/Impact [Policy]

Burden share Stock‐flow mid‐term target IPCC/WG3 IPCC/WG2 IPCC/integrated scenario carbon tax long‐term vision Accounting adaptation low carbon scenario

Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World

S6 S3 S8 S4 S7 2A‐1103 B‐052 water NIES S10 IR3S B‐54 scenario NIES A‐0808 Tokyo S5 SATREPS CCPG_PJ3 NIES SDPG NIES CCPG_PJ2 NIES Fukushima

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SLIDE 6

Activities in FY2012‐2013

  • Environment Research and Technology Development Fund,

MOEJ

– S‐6: Asia LCS – S‐8: Impact analysis – S‐10: Global risk due to climate change – 2A‐1103: Global scenario and Japan’s mitigation study – 2RF‐1302: Local data in China & Korea toward S‐12

  • SATREPS (JICA‐JST)
  • JCM: Joint Crediting Mechanism (MOEJ)
  • Climate Change Research Program (NIES)
  • Fukushima Project Office (NIES)

6

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SLIDE 7

Low Carbon Asia Research Project

7

Symposium: “Challenges to Low Carbon Asia” at UNU, 17 October 2013 S‐6, ERTDF

  • How much will GHG emissions from Asia

need to be reduced to halve global emissions by 2050 (2 degree target)?

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SLIDE 8

Ten Actions for Realizing a Low Carbon Asia

8

S‐6, ERTDF

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SLIDE 9

Two future scenarios in S‐6 project

9

Advanced Society Scenario Conventional Society Scenario

Overall Features Society that is highly motivated and actively working to achieve a transition to next‐generation social systems, programs, technologies etc. Society that is cautious about making changes to social systems, programs, technologies and so on and that is concerned about the transition costs of social change. Economy Average annual growth rate: 3.27%/year (global) 4.16%/year (Asia) Average annual growth rate: 2.24%/year (global) 2.98%/year (Asia) Population Total population in 2050: 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) Total population in 2050: 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) Education Active efforts to improve education Average number of years of schooling: 4 ‐ 12 years (2005) → 11 ‐ 14 years (2050) Standard improvements to educational policy Average number of years of schooling: 4 ‐ 12 years (2005) → 8 ‐ 13 years (2050) Use of Time Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period

  • f time spent on work and career advancement

Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period

  • f time spent on time with family and friends

Work Unemployment rate of 0% achieved by 2075 Fixed at 2009 level Government Efficiency Improved from a comparatively early stage Improved gradually at a slow pace International Cooperation Lower trade barriers and reduced foreign direct investment risk Gradual progress in establishing cooperative relationships among countries in Asia Technical Innovation High rate of advancement Gradual advancement Transportation Increased demand resulting from high economic growth rate Gradual increase in demand Land Use Speedy and efficient land improvement Gradual and cautious land improvement

Summarized by Ms. Kawase

S‐6, ERTDF

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SLIDE 10

GHG emission reductions by “Ten actions” in Asia

10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG emissions [GtCO2eq/year] Reduction by Action 1: Urban Transport Reduction by Action 2: Interregional Transport Reduction by Action 3: Resources & Materials Reduction by Action 4: Buildings Reduction by Action 5: Biomass Reduction by Action 6: Energy System Reduction by Action 7: Agriculture & Livestock Reduction by Action 8: Forestry & Land Use Other reduction GHG emission in Asia (low carbon society) Global GHG emission (low carbon society) Global GHG emission (reference society) Calculated by Dr. Fujimori

S‐6, ERTDF

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SLIDE 11

Developed National & Local Scenarios

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http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/

S‐6, ERTDF

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SLIDE 12

SSPs (Shard Socioeconomic Pathways)

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Primary energy supply (EJ) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population (bil. persons) 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GDP (tri. US$@2005) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GHG emissions (GtCO2eq)

Population Primary Energy Supply GDP GHG emissions

3

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

Calculated by Dr. Fujimori

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 13

IAMC: Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium

  • The 6th Annual meeting was held at NIES, October 28‐30, 2013.

– Modeling Impacts and Adaptation in Integrated Assessment – Using Integrated Assessment Models to Inform Near‐Term International Policy Discussions – Modeling Energy Demand in Integrated Assessment – Understanding Mitigation, Adaptation, and Impacts through a Multi‐ Objective Lens

13

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 14

Other international works

  • EMF30
  • ADVANCE
  • LIMITS
  • Ag‐MIP
  • COBHAM
  • LCS‐RNet
  • LoCARNet

14

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 15

450/550 ppm pathways and technology options using Energy system backcasting model

15

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG 排出量 [GtCO2e/yr]

Baseline‐AllTech Baseline‐NoCCS Baseline‐NucOff Baseline‐LimSW Baseline‐LimBio 450‐AllTech 450‐NoCCS 450‐NucOff 450‐LimSW 450‐LimBio 550‐AllTech 550‐NoCCS 550‐NucOff 550‐LimSW 550‐LimBio

Global BaU 550 ppm 450 ppm

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG排出量 [GtCO2e/yr]

Baseline‐AllTech Baseline‐NoCCS Baseline‐NucOff Baseline‐LimSW Baseline‐LimBio 450‐AllTech 450‐NoCCS 450‐NucOff 450‐LimSW 450‐LimBio 550‐AllTech 550‐NoCCS 550‐NucOff 550‐LimSW 550‐LimBio

China

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG排出量 [GtCO2e/yr]

Baseline‐AllTech Baseline‐NoCCS Baseline‐NucOff Baseline‐LimSW Baseline‐LimBio 450‐AllTech 450‐NoCCS 450‐NucOff 450‐LimSW 450‐LimBio 550‐AllTech 550‐NoCCS 550‐NucOff 550‐LimSW 550‐LimBio

India

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG排出量 [GtCO2e/yr]

Baseline‐AllTech Baseline‐NoCCS Baseline‐NucOff Baseline‐LimSW Baseline‐LimBio 450‐AllTech 450‐NoCCS 450‐NucOff 450‐LimSW 450‐LimBio 550‐AllTech 550‐NoCCS 550‐NucOff 550‐LimSW 550‐LimBio

OECD

Japan and Korea GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] GHG emissions [GtCO2eq] Calculated by Dr. Ashina

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 16

16

Regional electricity generation under 20,000yen/tCO2 using Multi‐region Enduse model (Japan)

  • Renewable energy supply will differ correspond to regional renewable energy

potential.

2A‐1103, ERTDF

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜北海道＞

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜東北＞

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜東京＞

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

＜中部＞

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜北陸＞

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜関西＞

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜中国＞

100 200 300 400 500 600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

＜四国＞

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜九州＞

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

発電電力量(億kWh)

揚水 他社受電 バイオマス 地熱 風力 太陽光 石油 LNG+CCS LNG 石炭+CCS 石炭 水力 原子力

＜沖縄＞

Hokkaido Tohoku Tokyo Chubu Shikoku Chugoku Kansai Hokuriku Kyushu Okinawa

  • il

LNG coal hydro nuclear water pumping from other company biomass geothermal wind solar

Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh] Electricity [100MkWh]

Calculated by Mr. Ohshiro

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SLIDE 17

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Fixed Low Middle High Fixed Low Middle High Fixed Low Middle High Fixed Low Middle High Fixed Low Middle High 0% 0%' 15% 20% 25% 2020 GHG emissions [MtCO2] Non‐Energy Energy Transport Commercial Residential Industry Level of counermeasures Share of nuclear power to total electricity suppy in 2030

Benchmark Year 2005 2010

Change from benchmark emissions +5% +1% ‐3% +1% ‐5% ‐9% ‐1% ‐8% ‐12% ‐2% ‐9% ‐13% ‐3% ‐10% ‐14% Share of nuclear power is set to be gradually shifted to the numbers in this figure between 2010 and 2030. "0%" is assumed to be 0% in 2020 and after

Meaning of new GHG mitigation target

Sectoral GHG emissions in Japan in 2030 (high‐economic‐growth scenario; as of June 2013)

New GHG mitigation target (‐3.8% to 2005 level = +3.1% to 1990 level)

17

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 18

Element Models

  • Material Stock and Flow Model (by Ms. Kawase)
  • Household Consumption and Lifestyle Model (by Dr. Kanamori)
  • Population and Household Model (by Dr. Kanamori)
  • Renewable Energy Potential Model (by Dr. Silva)
  • Electricity Supply Structure Model (by D. Ashina)
  • MAC Tool (by Dr. Hanaoka)
  • Visualization Tool on GHG Reduction (by Dr. Ashina)
  • ...

18

2A‐1103, ERTDF

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SLIDE 19

Feasibility study toward new research

19

2RF‐1302, ERTDF

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Heilongjiang Inner‐Mongolia Qinghai Tibet Xinjiang Jilin Liaoning Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shandong Ningxia Sichuan Shaanxi Shanxi Gansu Shanghai Anhui Henan Jiangsu Chongqing Hunan Zhejiang Hubei Jiangxi Yunnan Guizhou Guangxi Guangdong Fujian Hainan

Bituminous coal Coke oven coke Coke oven gas Gas works gas Kerosene Diesel oil LPG Natural gas Non‐specified

  • il products

Heat Electricity Energy demand in urban household in China (Mtoe)

500 1000 1500

Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi InnerMong Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

2030 2002

CO2 in China (MtCO2)

by Dr. Xing by Dr. Dai by Dr. Park

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Seoul Busan Daegu Incheon Gwangju Daejeon Ulsan Kyeonggi Gangwon Chungbuk Chungnam Jeonbuk Jeonnam Gyeongbuk Gyeongnam Jeju Heating Hot water Cooling Lighting Cooking Ref. ICT Others

Energy demand share in household sector in Korea

In order to assess emission reduction of SLCP, local scale air pollution will be assessed using Enduse model. Data collection for China and Korea has been done.

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SLIDE 20

SATREPS for Malaysia Iskandar

  • Low Carbon Society Blueprint

for Iskandar Malaysia 2025 and its Roadmap

– Side event at COP19, on November 15, 2013

20

SATREPS, JICA‐JST

Green Economy 59% Green Community 21% Green Environment 20%

by SATREPS by Dr. Ashina

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SLIDE 21

JCM: Joint Credit Mechanism

  • Joint Credit Mechanism

– Promoting climate change mitigation actions through bilateral agreements mainly between developing and developed countries. – AIM supports NAMAs in Thailand and assessment of RAN‐GRK, GHG mitigation target in Indonesia, through capacity building on model application in JCM project.

21

JCM

Policy dialogue on mitigation target in Indonesia （2013.10.9）

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SLIDE 22

Training Workshop

  • June 10‐14, 2013: Asia LCS

– Training of Enduse model

  • November 5‐15, 2013: JCM

– Training of Enduse model and lecture on other models

22

Training workshop on model at NIES （2013.6.10） Discussion at Training workshop at NIES （2013.11.15）

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SLIDE 23

Global & Asian Network & interface between research and policy on LCS

  • LCS‐RNet, the 5th Annual Meeting at Yokohama, July 22‐23, 2013
  • LoCARNet, the 2nd Annual Meeting at Yokohama, July 24‐25, 2013
  • ISAP at Yokohama, July 23‐24, 2013
  • In Asian countries, the several actions have already been implemented

toward the LCS at their own initiatives. The role of Japan to support them is important in order to achieve “Leap‐flog development” in Asia.

23

Researchers introducing their countries’ activities at ISAP/LoCARNet （2013.7.24）

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SLIDE 24

Research Plan in FY2014 (1)

S‐12, ERTDF

  • Purpose: Mitigation pathways on both LLGHG (long lived GHG) such as

CO2 and SLCP (Short lived climate pollutants) such as aerosol will be assessed using Emission Inventory (EI), Inverse Model (IM), Integrated Assessment Model (AIM), Chemical Transfer Model (CTM), Climate Model (GCM) and Climate Impact Model (CIM).

Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone (UNEP 2011) Emission Gap Report (UNEP 2010) CCAC (Climate and Clean Air Coalition )

24

Theme 1 EI IM Theme 2 IAM (AIM) Theme 3 GCM CIM Theme 4 Mitigation Pathways on LLGHG and SLCP taken into account climate change impacts and air pollution impacts

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SLIDE 25

Theme 2 Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios

Goals of Theme 2

  • Enduse model will be improved in order to assess air pollution management technologies in

global scale and major Asian countries. National Enduse model will be disaggregated into local scale. By using the improved models, emissions scenarios on LLGHG and SLCP will be quantified taking into account GHG mitigation options and air pollution management.

  • Emission scenarios and air pollution impacts in household and city scale will be assessed.
  • Future socio‐economic scenarios reflecting climate and environmental change based on

results in Theme 3 will be assessed.

Sub‐(1) Global scale Enduse model CGE model Sub‐(3) Household & city scale Emission model Air pollution model Theme 1 Theme 3 Theme 4

Feedback from Impacts Future Scenarios Countermeasures Futures Scenarios Inventory Assessment of actions and policies

Expected Results

  • Quantification of socio‐economic scenarios and LLGHG & SLCP emission scenarios taking into

account climate and environmental change in global/national/local scale.

  • Assessment of GHG mitigation and air pollution reduction policies in Asian countries.

Sub‐(2) National/Local scale Enduse model

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SLIDE 26

Sub‐theme (3) Sub‐theme (1)

Future scenarios AIM

Global CGE Model Global Enduse Model National Enduse Model Household Model Local Air Pollution Model

Theme 3

  • Env. & Climate

Impacts

Global Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP

Theme 1 Emission Inventory Theme 4 Synthesis System

Local Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP National Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP Air Pollution Management Technologies National/Local Scale Air Pollution Management Policies & Event s

Information for Negotiation to reduce GHG

  • Env. & Climate

Policy in Japan Assessment of

  • Env. & Climate

Policies in Asia

Green: relation to

  • ther themes

Yellow: relation to env. policy

Improvement of Enduse Model (Local Activities & Pollution Management Technologies)

Assessment of Actions & Policies Future scenarios Improved Inventory

Assessment of Mitigation Costs & Climate Change Impacts Global LLGHG & SLCP Emission Scenarios Future Socio‐ Economic Scenarios

  • Env. & Climate Impacts

Socio‐economic Scenarios Considering Climate & Env. Impacts

Theme 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios

model scenario research goals

Sub‐theme (2)

26

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SLIDE 27

Research Plan in FY2014 (2)

27

Measures in residential sector Development from material stock Roadmap toward 2050 Japan: 80% reduction World: 50% reduction Quantification of GHG mitigation target in 2030 Japan Enduse Model Japan CGE Model Long‐term global scenarios Model inter‐comparison Global CGE Model Backcasting Model Household consumption & Lifestyle Model Material Stock‐Flow Model Social structure to achieve LCS Green Growth

Global Scenario and Japan Scenario

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SLIDE 28

Research Plan in FY2014 (2‐1)

  • Global scenario and National scenario (under exam)

– Long‐term Global Scenario

  • Quantification of SSPs
  • Contribution to international works

– IAMC – EMF – ADVANCE – LIMITS – Ag‐MIP – ... – Low Carbon Asia

28

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SLIDE 29

Research Plan in FY2014 (2‐2)

  • Global scenario and National scenario (under exam)

– National Scenario

  • macro‐flame might be changed after the earthquake in 2011.
  • Previous simulations were based on the existing service demand before the

earthquake, but power generation included impacts of nuclear power accident.

29 20 40 60 80 100 120 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 11 13579 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Power generation [bil. kWh] home generation of electricity, other renewable home generation of electricity, geothermal home generation of electricity, solar home generation of electricity, wind home generation of electricity, thermal home generation of electricity, hydro

  • ther power supply industry, renewable
  • ther power supply industry, nuclear
  • ther power supply industry, thermal
  • ther power supply industry, hydro

public power supply industry, geothermal public power supply industry, solar public power supply industry, wind public power supply industry, nuclear public power supply industry, thermal public power supply industry, hydro

Data: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

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SLIDE 30

Research Plan in FY2014 (3)

  • Application of AIM to reestablishment in Fukushima Pref. and Tohoku Area.

– NIES will construct new branch in Fukushima Pref. – Linked with National model, and more realistic

30

Multi‐region model Fukushima model Municipal model Global model National model

Biomass potential Solar potential Wind potential

Estimated by Dr. Silva

Top‐down Approach Bottom‐up Approach

Future Visions, Roadmaps, Scenarios

Background

  • Aging
  • Pop. decrease
  • Happiness
  • Growth
  • Sustainability
  • Climate
  • Resource
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SLIDE 31

Research Plan in FY2014 (4)

  • Impact & adaptation research

– S‐8 will finish in 2014. Toward 2015, new FS will start from April 2014. – S‐10 will continue.

  • Adaptation will be introduced in the AIM and assessed.
  • Integration of IAM & ESM will be discussed at key note speech

by Dr. Jae Edmonds

31

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SLIDE 32

Conclusion

  • During this workshop, we want to discuss

about AIM model progress and application toward sustainable low carbon society development.

  • Welcome your comments, suggestions,

proposals and questions!

32