A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF MARKET SYSTEMS in south central Somalia, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF MARKET SYSTEMS

in south central Somalia, north-eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia

The International Labour Organisation Somalia Programme 14th March 2012

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IMPORTERS WAREHOUSING & STORAGE DISTRIBUTORS WHOLESALERS DEALERS/ BROKERS RETAILS CONSUMERS

KEBS CUSTOMS DUTY CORRUPTION & CARTELS SECURITY ACCESS ROADS WEIGHTS & MEASURES MICROFINANCE POLICY TRADE LICENCING ACT

CLEARING AND FORWARDING INSURANCE PUBLIC HEALTH LOANS ROAD TRANSPORT PACKAGING TECHNICAL EXTENSION BANKING MARKET INFORMATION

BUSINESS SERVICES THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

SECURITY

MARKET ACTORS

Imported goods market system: NORMAL PERIOD Imported goods market system: EMERGENCY PERIOD

1

IMPORTERS WAREHOUSING & STORAGE DISTRIBUTORS WHOLESALERS DEALERS/ BROKERS RETAILS CONSUMERS

KEBS CUSTOMS DUTY CORRUPTION & CARTELS SECURITY ACCESS ROADS WEIGHTS & MEASURES MICROFINANCE POLICY TRADE LICENCING ACT

CLEARING AND FORWARDING INSURANCE PUBLIC HEALTH LOANS ROAD TRANSPORT PACKAGING TECHNICAL EXTENSION BANKING MARKET INFORMATION

BUSINESS SERVICES THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

SECURITY

MARKET ACTORS

Monitored Markets (EMMA)

Wajir Filtu Mandera Dollow Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

Major routes Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River Monitored Markets

Legend

Figure 1

(Sept 2011)

Wajir Filtu Mandera

Markets Where Items Sold (core commodities)

Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River 10 traders selling items 150 traders selling items

Legend

Dollow

Figure 2

(Sept 2011)

Wajir

Filtu

Mandera Dollow

Markets Where Items Sourced (core commodities)

Major routes

10 traders sourcing items

Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River 150 traders sourcing items

Legend

Mogadishu

Figure 3

(Sept 2011)

Wajir Filtu Mandera

Markets Where Items Sold (core commodities)

Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River 10 traders selling items 150 traders selling items

Legend

Dollow

Figure 2

(Sept 2011)

Wajir Filtu Mandera Dollow

Markets Where Items Sourced (core commodities)

Major routes

10 traders sourcing items

Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River 150 traders sourcing items

Legend

Mogadishu

Figure 3

10 traders sourcing items

Wajir Filtu Mandera Dollow

Main Trade Flows

Domestic Cereals Livestock Imported Goods Direction of Trade

Legend

. . .

Regional boundary River Major roads Assembly, wholesale and retail Retail & wholesale

.

Retail Wholesale

Key Market Centres

Regional markets (unmonitored)

Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

Legend

Figure 4

(Sept 2011)

Trends

• Mohadishu supplies imported commodities for

much of the trade basin.

• Markets are stronger than we think.
• Trade between markets in Gedo and the Kenyan

and Ethiopian borders function amidst drought and conflict.

• Markets in Bay and Bakool receive a minor

through-flow of goods from the border and are instead subservient to Mogadishu imports.

Flow of Imported Items to/from Mogadishu

Soap Sugar White rice Petrol Oil Nails Timber Cooking oil Pasta

Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012).

Figure 5

Coconut Oil Charcoal Tea Leaves Bottled Water Milk Powder Air time SIM Cards

(Sept 2011)

Mogadishu

Trends

• Two classifications of imported goods: those consumed in urban centres by

higher earners (white rice and pasta), and those consumed across all income percentiles for which there are few domestically produced alternatives (sugar).

• Reverse flows and backward linkages.
• SIM cards representing the movement of currency?

Mandera

Urban Areas Receiving IDPs (01 Dec 2011 – 17 Feb 2012)

Ceel Waaq

Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

Mogadishu Incorporating: Wadajir, Hodan, Dharkenley, Yaaqshiid and Hawl Wadaag Mogadishu Belet Wayne Dollow Bardera Doobley

Major routes 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River

Legend

Figure 6

Trends

• Economic induced rural-urban migration
• Urbanisation of market towns & urban centres.
• Migrants not returning to pastoralism.
• Underdevelopment of the urban system.
• Urbanisation as an opportunity.

Points of Origin

(01 Dec 2011 – 17 Feb 2012)

Dadaab Afgooye Quracley Ceelasha

Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

Belet Weyne Farlibaax Jilib Dolo, Eth.

Major routes 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River

Legend

Figure 7

Mandera

Urban Areas Receiving IDPs

(01 Dec 2011 – 17 Feb 2012)

Ceel Waaq

Mogadishu Incorporating: Wadajir, Hodan, Dharkenley, Yaaqshiid and Hawl Wadaag

Mogadishu Belet Wayne Dollow Bardera Doobley

1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs

Legend

Figure 6

Regional boundary Major routes Regional markets (unmonitored) River

Points of Origin

Dadaab Afgooye Quracley Ceelasha

Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

Belet Weyne Farlibaax Jilib Dolo, Eth.

Major routes 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Regional markets (unmonitored) Regional boundary River

Legend

Figure 7

Trends

• Economic induced rural-urban migration
• Urbanisation of market towns & urban centres.
• Migrants not returning to pastoralism.
• Underdevelopment of the urban system.
• Urbanisation as an opportunity.

Credit Transport Energy Work ethic

Problems & Opportunities

We need to understand markets so we invest where it makes sense to do so. How do we make international trade benefit Somalis? How do we best empower people through employment creation? How do we work collectively to address problems and exploit

• pportunities ?