A Personal History in System of Systems B. E. White, Ph.D. CAU SES: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A Personal History in System of Systems B. E. White, Ph.D. CAU SES: Complexity Are Us Systems Engineering Strategies 18 October 2010 Special Session on System of Systems (SoS) International Congress on Ultra Modern Telecommunications and
CAU SES: Complexity Are Us Systems Engineering Strategies
18 October 2010 Special Session on System of Systems (SoS)
International Congress on Ultra Modern Telecommunications and Control Systems
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See Notes Pages for paper
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Complex System Enterprise SoS System
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2003-09
Director of systems engineering process office
Learned complexity theory and complex systems
Helped develop CSE principles for our most difficult systems
Tried to convince skeptics that CSE is wave of future in SE
Defining
System: collection of elements for purpose greater than sum of parts
System boundary should be discussed in creating shared vision
SoS: collection of systems where each system, with its own purpose, is managed independently, and is can still operate alone in SoS environment
CSE is mostly about people who cannot necessarily be controlled or even influenced
Political, operational, economic, and technical (POET) aspects must be considered
Monitoring
Watch whether system is moving in desired direction; beware of time delays
Help decision makers make better decisions
Management
Create conditions for self-adaptation/organization
Do not force behavior from top in typical command-and-control fashion
Forecasting
It is impossible to accurately predict future behavior of complex system
Let system design itself and evolve on its own
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
__________
* Pm = principles that were applied; m = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples
(Pn) = principles that should have been applied; n = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples
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Satellite Command Link* Communication to Submarines* Satellite Band-Pass Limiter Bandwidth Efficient Modulations* Satellite Communications Architectures Satellite Multiple Access Frequency-Hopping (FH) Radios* Civil Aeronautical Communication* Military Global Grid Architecture Class of Functions Architecture Future Joint Tactical Data Link (JTDL)*
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1962-1965
Lieutenant in U.S. Air Force Studied CCN-related technologies Learned to read scientific Russian
Defining
Space programs Large radio astronomy antennas Ferroelectric memories
Monitoring
Briefed senior leaders Verified Aviation Week!
Management
Open societies gave West lead in computer technology Hiding own work internally slowed progress
Forecasting
Relied too much on past observations Depended on speculations from foreign visits
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P6; Mnt: P2, P7; Mng: (P9, P10) P11; Frc: (P1)
Holism, Discussions, Opportunities, and Self-Organization but Distrust, Non-Interactive, and Arrogant
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1965-1967 First “real job” A. Simple anti-spoof (AS) authentication B. Pseudorandom sequence to control FH for AJ Defining A. 6-stage feedback and feed-forward linear shift registers B. Timing beacon registers fed nonlinear combinatorial circuit Monitoring A. Dropped timing pulse in lab test cause surprising authentication B. Successfully passed standard randomness tests Management A. Briefing to advisory group well received B. One agency directed us to “close up shop” Forecasting A. Never implemented B. Later learned (via colleague) of similar agency effort
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P3, P12; Mnt: P1, P10 (P11); Mng: (P6, P9); Frc: (P7, P10, P11)
Humility, Holism, Balance, and Simple, but few Discussions or Opportunities, and Distrust
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1967-1969
Extremely Low Frequency (ELF); 0.25 bits/second! Modulation/coding of orthogonal waveforms
Defining
Minimum Shift Keying (MSK) utilized 2n orthogonal sequences constructed for length 2n
Monitoring
First principles of electrical engineering emphasized
Management
Tightly controlling program manager orchestrated progress
Forecasting
Shortfall of systems thinking regarding high-power transmitters
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P10; Mng: P7, P11; Frc: (P2)
Humility, Opportunities, Interactive, and Self-Organization but not Holistic
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1975-1976 Close-packing of Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA)
Low “cross-talk” Defining Time-domain shapings of modulation signal End-to-end performance viewpoint was breakthrough learning Monitoring Work greatly supported by outside stakeholder Management Overseeing managers delighted with findings Forecasting Several journal articles and conference papers resulted Influenced design and development of important satellite system
Discussions, Trust, Interactive, and Self-Organization
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10 1986-1993 Anti-jam radio systems development Defining A. Hop much faster to defeat “repeat” jammer B. U.S. Air Force – U.S. Army interoperable voice/data radio system Monitoring A. Hopping rate sufficient to defeat future technology A. Foreign sales of radio/jamming equipment potential problem B. Helping contractor “backfired” Management A. “Five power” nation collaboration A. But U.S. hopping algorithm not shared! B. Internal “witch hunt”
Contract terminated for government convenience!
Forecasting A/B. Nation states concern A/B. T
errorists not yet on “radar screen”
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P6; Mnt: P1, P3; Mng: P9, P10; Frc: (P11)
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions, Trust, and Interactive but little Self-Organization
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11 1993-1997 A. Very High Frequency (VHF) Digital Link Mode 3 (VDL-3) B. Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) Defining A. VDL-3: Increased capacity in 25-kHz channels B. ADS-B: Air crews handle situational awareness Monitoring A. International standards developed A. VDL-3 resisted by Europeans and airlines B. Sweden advocated
VDL Mode 4
Management A. RTCA contentiousness finally resulted in agreed-to waveform A. ICAO progress aided by author’s efforts B. ADS-B participants castigated for creating potential vulnerability Forecasting A. Insufficient attention paid to economic issues B. Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) catching on
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P3, P6 P9; Mnt: P1, P2; Mng: P10, P11; Frc: (P5: E)
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions, Trust, Interactive, and Self-Organization but too little Economic
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2010
Defining
A/B. Performance of wireless portion challenging
Aircraft have narrow bandwidths and limited data rates
Still no funding for wide-body directive antennas
Monitoring
A/B. Prosecution time budgets becoming more realistic
Management
A/B. More portfolio management of “stove-piped” programs
Forecasting
Perform more processing locally and transmit only what is needed by decision makers
Greater use of Binary eXtensible Markup Language (XML) reduces data by two orders of magnitude
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1, P2, P3; Mnt: P13; Mng: P6, P7; Frc: P1, P10, P11
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions, Opportunities, Interactive, Self-Organization, and Layered
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CSE Principles applied to each aspect of CCN projects Refer to Table 1 (next chart) and each Pn, where n is nth principle
Those that should have applied and did not, is shown in parentheses and
in red, as (Pn)
In addition, every row of Table 1 is characterized by the P5 POET factors Each short phrase in table provides essence of paper’s discussion for that
table cell
No general trend of CSE Principles emerges
Only two projects escaped CSE Principles that should have been applied,
viz., Bandwidth Efficient Modulations, and Future JTDL
Author remembers first of these as time of creative career recovery Recent experience bodes well in developing and implementing future self-
Principle 12 should play key role in future
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CCN Program Defining Monitoring Management Forecasting Technical Intelligence P5: POET Politically dominated but with special topics P6 Internally processed intelligence vs. open literature data P2,P7 Dearth of information sharing (P9, P10) P11 Historical projections and (P1) information tidbits Satellite Command Link P5: POT Innovative designs P2, P3, P12 Emergent property uncovered in testing P1, P10 (P11) Inter-organizational “squabble” (P6, P9) Project was “shut down” (P7, P10, P11) SANGUINE P5: POT Exploratory analysis and synthesis P1 Electrical engineering fundamentals P10 Lean with tight control P7, P11 Failure to foresee public repercussions (P2) Satellite Band-Pass Limiter P5: POT Exploratory analysis P1, (P2) Self-monitoring through literature P7 Non-existent (P4) Only factor-of-two gain in performance P10 Bandwidth Efficient Modulations P5: OT Time-domain shaping, analysis, and simulation P6 Considerable
motivated the work Engaged oversight and encouragement P10 Results influenced future satellite P11 system development Satcom Architectures P5: POET Two purposeful architectures for P1 three user segments High-level oversight was prevalent P5, P7 Politically driven by control organization (P3,P6,P9,P10) EHF cost was large uncertainty P2, P5: E Satellite Multiple Access P5: OT Burgeoning topic with ample multiple access schemes P8 Early adopters were actively pursuing techniques P3, P6 Stakeholders listened but were not enthusiastic (P10) Networking evolved along with success
P7 Frequency-Hopping (FH) Radios P5: POT Hopping rates, FH algorithms, and interoperability P2, P6 FH technology and foreign military sales P1, P3 Autocratic locally but constructive progress team-wise P9, P10 Technology driven but need diminished as Wall came down (P11) Civil Aeronautical Communication P5: POET Strong negotiations involving technical issues P3, P6, P9 Influence of important stakeholders P1, P2 Competitive, collaborative, and insightful P10, P11 Economic interests were incompletely addressed (P5: E) Military Global Grid Architecture P5: POET Matrix of many protocols mapped to architectural layers P2, P13 Layered architectures finally caught on P6, P7 Informed, practical, and stimulating P2, P10, P11 Forward looking ideas were not sold to decision makers (P5: E, P8) Class of Functions Architecture P5: POET Innovative approach to more effective airborne networking P2, P3 Several duplicative committees not talking to each other (P4, P6) Inter-organizational rivalry confused the roles and missions (P9) Network-centric progress slowed by command changes (P10, P11) Future Joint Tactical Data Link (JTDL) P5: POET Means for increased data rates are well understood P1, P2, P3 Layered C&N architecture and experimentation P13 Program portfolio and ad hoc distributed networks P6 , P7 Self-adaptive and self-organized networks P9, P10 P11
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Baldwin, K., et al., “A Model of Systems Engineering in a Systems of Systems Context,” CSER, Redondo Beach, CA, 4-5 April 2008.
Forrester, J.W. “System Dynamics,” circa 1958, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Wright_Forrester.
Francesca, M., “Integrating POET,” 2009 MITRE Innovation Exchange, McLean, VA, 5-7 May 2009, http://www.mitre.org/news/events/exchange09/9.html,
Gladwell, M., The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little, Brown and Company, 2000.
Maier, M. W., “Architecting Principles for Systems-of-Systems,” circa 1996, http://www.infoed.com/Open/PAPERS/systems.htm.
Martin, J. N., “Systems are Imaginary―Systems are Not Real: Some Thoughts on the Nature of Systems Thinking,” INCOSE International Symposium, San Diego, CA, 24 -28 June 2007.
McCarter, B. G., and B. E. White, “Emergence of SoS, sociocognitive aspects,” chapter three in Systems of Systems Engineering―Principles and Applications, M. Jamshidi, Ed., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2009, pp. 71-105.
Reiffen, B., and B. E. White, “On Low Crosstalk Data Communication and its Realization by Continuous-Frequency Modulation Schemes,” IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol. COM-26, No. 1, January 1978, pp. 131-135.
Sage, A. P., and W. B. Rouse, Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition,Wiley, New York, 2009.
Sillitto, H. G., “Design Principles for Ultra-Large-Scale (ULS) Systems,” INCOSE International Symposium, Rosemont, IL, 12-15 July 2010.
Various authors, “ADS-B,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance-broadcast.
Various authors, “Manhattan Project,” circa 2005, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project.
Various authors, “Power Laws,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law.
White, B. E., “On the Construction of N-ary Orthogonal Sequences Under a Continuous-Phase Constraint,” IEEE Transactions
White, B. E., “Systems Engineering Lexicon,” Taylor and Francis Complex and Enterprise Systems Engineering Book Series web site, 2007, http://www.enterprise-systems-engineering.com/lexicon.htm.
White, B. E., “Complex adaptive systems engineering,” 8th Understanding Complex Systems Symposium, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL. 12-15 May 2008, http://www.howhy.com/ucs2008/schedule.html.
White, B. E., “Complex Adaptive Systems Engineering (CASE),” IEEE Systems Conference, Vancouver, Canada, 24 March 2009.
Complex Systems Engineering (CSE) Computers, Communications, and Networking (CCN) [U.S. ] Department of Defense (DoD) Enterprise and/or Complex (E/C) Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) Political, Operational, Economic, and Technical (POET) System of Systems (SoS) Systems Engineering (SE)
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1973-1974 Lessening “capture” of “bent-pipe” satellite capacity Defining Signal processing techniques utilizing Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) Clipping peaks (etc.) of power spectrum at satellite Only doubled capacity with asynchronous signals Monitoring Utilized literature for specific investigations Management Little support once providing initial idea Had to work off tea cart during first weeks of employment! Forecasting Conference paper resulted but technique not implemented
Humility and Opportunities, but not Holistic, Trans-Disciplinary or Interactive,
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1977-1979 Military satellite communication emphasis Defining Three-segment (tactical, strategic, and intelligence) satellite system
architecture operating at Ultra High Frequency (UHF), Extremely HF (EHF), and Super HF (SHF)
T
T
ension between satellite and terminal system program offices (SPOs)
Monitoring High cost of satellite system programs rated close attention of senior
stakeholders (of DoD, and non-profit and profit contractors)
Management Politics favored space segment Solutions that balanced space and terminal segments were elusive Forecasting Focus on cost and propagation problems of EHF
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P5, P7; Mng: (P3, P6, P9, P10); Frc: P2, P5: E
Humility, Holistic, Opportunities, and Economic concern but Unbalanced, few Discussions, Distrust, and Non-Interactive
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Studied random access (RA) (Aloha and Slotted Aloha), Demand Assignment Multiple Access (DAMA), FDMA, Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)
Advocated hybrid depending on traffic loading
Defining
Slotted Aloha for lightly loaded channels
DAMA for moderately “ “
TDMA for heavily “ “
CDMA had “near-far” problem if too many users
Monitoring
Network control was “hot” new area
Skepticism and reluctant support
Problem employee left after being trained
Management
Satellite architecture received more attention
Forecasting
With internet, “network control” evolved to “network centricity”
Balance, Discussions, Opportunities, and Heuristics but Non-Interactive
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1999-2002
Rejoined communications/networking division Project Leader
Defining
Alternative layered C&N architectures proposed/analyzed
Monitoring
Effort to influence other projects in layered principles Eventually impacted several programs, e.g., software-defined radio system
Management
Focused on practical modus operandi; not research oriented But encouraged/recognized work leading to increased capabilities
Forecasting
Advocated specific performance improvements But these innovative ideas were undersold
Holism, Discussions, Opportunities, Interactive, Self-Organization, and Layered but not Economic and no Heuristics
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2003
Platform-centric approach leads to N2 problem, for large N Requirements need periodic updating
Defining
Wide-body aircraft have similar functions Net-centricity: just get into and out of network
Monitoring
Little interaction among duplicative committees Programs concentrated on “vertical” integration
Management
Lack of intra-organization cooperation/collaboration Inter-organizational rivalry caused confusion
Forecasting
Changes of officer-in-charge hindered long-term progress
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P2, P3; Mnt: (P4, P6); Mng: (P9); Frc: (P10, P11)
Holism and Balance, but not Trans-Disciplinary, few Discussions, Distrust, Non-Interactive, and no Self-Organization