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A new functional analytic approach to robust utility maximization in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A new functional analytic approach to robust utility maximization in the dominated case Julio Daniel Backhoff Humboldt-Universit at zu Berlin Universit at Wien Joint work with Joaqu n Fontbona of Universidad de Chile I thank the


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SLIDE 1

A new functional analytic approach to robust utility maximization in the dominated case

Julio Daniel Backhoff

Humboldt-Universit¨ at zu Berlin Universit¨ at Wien Joint work with Joaqu´ ın Fontbona of Universidad de Chile

I thank the Berlin Mathematical School for full support. Part of this work was undertaken during a visit to the Hausdorff Research Institute for Mathematics at the University of Bonn within the Trimester Program Stochastic Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

NOVEMBER, 2014

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 1 / 20

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SLIDE 2

Outline

1

Introduction Utility maximization in continuous time financial markets The convex duality approach Robust problem under “model compactness” Open questions and motivation

2

Robust problem without model compactness A Modular space formulation Our main result

3

Worst-case measure for “linear uncertainty” in complete case Setting and an abstract result Example

4

Conclusions, open problems

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 2 / 20

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SLIDE 3

Outline

1

Introduction Utility maximization in continuous time financial markets The convex duality approach Robust problem under “model compactness” Open questions and motivation

2

Robust problem without model compactness A Modular space formulation Our main result

3

Worst-case measure for “linear uncertainty” in complete case Setting and an abstract result Example

4

Conclusions, open problems

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 2 / 20

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SLIDE 4

Outline

1

Introduction Utility maximization in continuous time financial markets The convex duality approach Robust problem under “model compactness” Open questions and motivation

2

Robust problem without model compactness A Modular space formulation Our main result

3

Worst-case measure for “linear uncertainty” in complete case Setting and an abstract result Example

4

Conclusions, open problems

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 2 / 20

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SLIDE 5

Outline

1

Introduction Utility maximization in continuous time financial markets The convex duality approach Robust problem under “model compactness” Open questions and motivation

2

Robust problem without model compactness A Modular space formulation Our main result

3

Worst-case measure for “linear uncertainty” in complete case Setting and an abstract result Example

4

Conclusions, open problems

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 2 / 20

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SLIDE 6

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 3 / 20

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SLIDE 7

Continuous Time Financial Market

Filtered probability space (Ω, F, (F)t≤T, P), P reference law. Market consists of d stocks and a risk-less bond, S =

  • Si

0≤i≤d .

S continuous (or loc. bounded) semimartingale. The value of portfolio (X0, π) at time t is Xt = X0 + t

0 πudSu.

Me(S) =

  • ˜

P ∼ P : S is a ˜ P-loc. martingale

  • = ∅.

Admissible wealths starting from x

X(x) =

  • X ≥ 0 : Xt = X0 +

t HudSu with X0 ≤ x

  • Utility Functions on (0, ∞)

U : (0, ∞) → (−∞, ∞) is strictly increasing, strictly concave and continuously differentiable. It satisfies INADA if U′(0+) = ∞ and U′(∞) = 0. Its asymptotic elasticity is AE(U) := l´ ım sup

x→∞ xU′(x) U(x) .

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 3 / 20

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SLIDE 8

Utility maximization problems

Standard utility maximization

Agent tries to maximize expected final utility starting from x > 0, under the fixed (subjective) model Q ∼ = P. Value function is uQ(x) := sup

X∈X(x)

EQ[U(XT)].

Robust utility maximization

Actual probabilistic model (law) possibly unknown (model uncertainty) but there is a set Q of reasonable possible models. Pessimistic agent tries to maximize expected final utility of the worst-case model. Value function is u(x) := sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ[U(XT)].

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 4 / 20

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SLIDE 9

Utility maximization problems

Standard utility maximization

Agent tries to maximize expected final utility starting from x > 0, under the fixed (subjective) model Q ∼ = P. Value function is uQ(x) := sup

X∈X(x)

EQ[U(XT)].

Robust utility maximization

Actual probabilistic model (law) possibly unknown (model uncertainty) but there is a set Q of reasonable possible models. Pessimistic agent tries to maximize expected final utility of the worst-case model. Value function is u(x) := sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ[U(XT)].

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 4 / 20

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SLIDE 10

Duality in financial market models

V(y) := sup

x>0

[U(x) − xy], y > 0 conjugate of U.

“Supermartingale densities ” w.r.t. (subjective) model Q

YQ(y) := {Y ≥ 0, YX is a Q − supermartingale ∀X ∈ X(1), Y0 = y}. Generalizes set of densities wrt. Q of e.g. risk-neutral measures. For all x > 0, X ∈ X(x), Q, EQ[U(XT)] ≤ ´ ınf

y>0

  • ´

ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] + xy

  • =

⇒ vQ(y) := ´ ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] candidate conjugate of uQ(x),

= ⇒ v(y) := ´ ınf

Q∈Q vQ(y) candidate conjugate of u(x).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 5 / 20

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SLIDE 11

Duality in financial market models

V(y) := sup

x>0

[U(x) − xy], y > 0 conjugate of U.

“Supermartingale densities ” w.r.t. (subjective) model Q

YQ(y) := {Y ≥ 0, YX is a Q − supermartingale ∀X ∈ X(1), Y0 = y}. Generalizes set of densities wrt. Q of e.g. risk-neutral measures. For all x > 0, X ∈ X(x), Q, EQ[U(XT)] ≤ ´ ınf

y>0

  • ´

ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] + xy

  • =

⇒ vQ(y) := ´ ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] candidate conjugate of uQ(x),

= ⇒ v(y) := ´ ınf

Q∈Q vQ(y) candidate conjugate of u(x).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 5 / 20

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SLIDE 12

Duality in financial market models

V(y) := sup

x>0

[U(x) − xy], y > 0 conjugate of U.

“Supermartingale densities ” w.r.t. (subjective) model Q

YQ(y) := {Y ≥ 0, YX is a Q − supermartingale ∀X ∈ X(1), Y0 = y}. Generalizes set of densities wrt. Q of e.g. risk-neutral measures. For all x > 0, X ∈ X(x), Q, EQ[U(XT)] ≤ ´ ınf

y>0

  • ´

ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] + xy

  • =

⇒ vQ(y) := ´ ınf

Y∈YQ(y) EQ[V(YT)] candidate conjugate of uQ(x),

= ⇒ v(y) := ´ ınf

Q∈Q vQ(y) candidate conjugate of u(x).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 5 / 20

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SLIDE 13

Robust case under model compactness

Dual involves v(y) = ´ ınf

Q∈Q

´ ınf

Y∈YP(y) E

  • dQ

dP V

  • YT

dQ/dP

  • .

Primal requires Minimax: sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ [U (XT)] = ´

ınf

Q∈Q uQ(x).

Conditions on Q are needed. [SchiedWu05] consider:

1

Q convex,

2

P(A) = 0 ⇐ ⇒ Q(A) = 0 ∀Q ∈ Q, and

3

dQ dP :=

  • dQ

dP : Q ∈ Q

  • closed in L0(P) (equiv. σ(L1, L∞)−compact).

Theorem ([SchiedWu05] (see also Gundel ∼ 03))

Then minimax equality holds and u, v are conjugate. Under additional assumptions (e.g. AE(U) < 1), everything is attained: u(x) = uˆ

Q(x) ,

ˆ XT = (U′)−1( ˆ YT/ˆ ZT) where ˆ y ∈ ∂u(x), ˆ Y ∈ Y(ˆ y) and the pair

  • ˆ

Z = d ˆ

Q dP , ˆ

Y

  • attains the

double infimum in the dual problem for such (x, ˆ y).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 6 / 20

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SLIDE 14

Robust case under model compactness

Dual involves v(y) = ´ ınf

Q∈Q

´ ınf

Y∈YP(y) E

  • dQ

dP V

  • YT

dQ/dP

  • .

Primal requires Minimax: sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ [U (XT)] = ´

ınf

Q∈Q uQ(x).

Conditions on Q are needed. [SchiedWu05] consider:

1

Q convex,

2

P(A) = 0 ⇐ ⇒ Q(A) = 0 ∀Q ∈ Q, and

3

dQ dP :=

  • dQ

dP : Q ∈ Q

  • closed in L0(P) (equiv. σ(L1, L∞)−compact).

Theorem ([SchiedWu05] (see also Gundel ∼ 03))

Then minimax equality holds and u, v are conjugate. Under additional assumptions (e.g. AE(U) < 1), everything is attained: u(x) = uˆ

Q(x) ,

ˆ XT = (U′)−1( ˆ YT/ˆ ZT) where ˆ y ∈ ∂u(x), ˆ Y ∈ Y(ˆ y) and the pair

  • ˆ

Z = d ˆ

Q dP , ˆ

Y

  • attains the

double infimum in the dual problem for such (x, ˆ y).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 6 / 20

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SLIDE 15

Robust case under model compactness

Dual involves v(y) = ´ ınf

Q∈Q

´ ınf

Y∈YP(y) E

  • dQ

dP V

  • YT

dQ/dP

  • .

Primal requires Minimax: sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ [U (XT)] = ´

ınf

Q∈Q uQ(x).

Conditions on Q are needed. [SchiedWu05] consider:

1

Q convex,

2

P(A) = 0 ⇐ ⇒ Q(A) = 0 ∀Q ∈ Q, and

3

dQ dP :=

  • dQ

dP : Q ∈ Q

  • closed in L0(P) (equiv. σ(L1, L∞)−compact).

Theorem ([SchiedWu05] (see also Gundel ∼ 03))

Then minimax equality holds and u, v are conjugate. Under additional assumptions (e.g. AE(U) < 1), everything is attained: u(x) = uˆ

Q(x) ,

ˆ XT = (U′)−1( ˆ YT/ˆ ZT) where ˆ y ∈ ∂u(x), ˆ Y ∈ Y(ˆ y) and the pair

  • ˆ

Z = d ˆ

Q dP , ˆ

Y

  • attains the

double infimum in the dual problem for such (x, ˆ y).

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 6 / 20

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SLIDE 16

Open questions and our motivation

No general characterization of ˆ Q. There are simple (and reasonable) uncertainty sets, that are not weakly compact in L1(P). e.g.: Q = {Q ≪ P : EQ[ST] ≥ A}, A > 0. More generally, Q determined by “moment” or distributional constraints Q =

  • i

{Q ≪ P : EQ[Fi(S)] ∈ Ci} arise naturally and may fail to be compact. Goal: Find a framework to study the above problems. Goal: use general convex duality to describe the worst measure.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 7 / 20

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Open questions and our motivation

No general characterization of ˆ Q. There are simple (and reasonable) uncertainty sets, that are not weakly compact in L1(P). e.g.: Q = {Q ≪ P : EQ[ST] ≥ A}, A > 0. More generally, Q determined by “moment” or distributional constraints Q =

  • i

{Q ≪ P : EQ[Fi(S)] ∈ Ci} arise naturally and may fail to be compact. Goal: Find a framework to study the above problems. Goal: use general convex duality to describe the worst measure.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 7 / 20

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SLIDE 18

Modular spaces in the robust problem

Assumption

Our U satisfies INADA, U ≥ 0 and U(∞) = ∞. We know: u(x) = sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ [U (XT)] ≤ ´

ınf

y≥0

  ´ ınf

Q∈Qe Y∈YP(1)

EP

  • dQ

dP V

  • yYT

dQ dP

  • + xy

  , Thus, we care only of Q ∈ Q such that Z := dQ

dP belongs to the

Modular space (more on it later on...): LI =

  • Z ∈ L0(P) s.t. ∃α > 0, I(αZ) < ∞
  • where I(z) := ´

ınfY∈YP(1) EP |z|V

  • YT (ω)

|z|

  • .

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 8 / 20

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SLIDE 19

Modular spaces in the robust problem

Assumption

Our U satisfies INADA, U ≥ 0 and U(∞) = ∞. We know: u(x) = sup

X∈X(x)

´ ınf

Q∈Q EQ [U (XT)] ≤ ´

ınf

y≥0

  ´ ınf

Q∈Qe Y∈YP(1)

EP

  • dQ

dP V

  • yYT

dQ dP

  • + xy

  , Thus, we care only of Q ∈ Q such that Z := dQ

dP belongs to the

Modular space (more on it later on...): LI =

  • Z ∈ L0(P) s.t. ∃α > 0, I(αZ) < ∞
  • where I(z) := ´

ınfY∈YP(1) EP |z|V

  • YT (ω)

|z|

  • .

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 8 / 20

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SLIDE 20

Convex Modular

I : LI → [0, ∞] is a Convex Modular (and LI its Modular Space), since: I(0) = 0 I(Z) = I(−Z) For every Z ∈ LI there exists α > 0 st. I(αZ) < ∞ [I(ξZ) = 0 for every ξ > 0] implies Z = 0 I is convex I(Z) = sup0≤ξ<1 I(ξZ) We may apply theory of [Musielak] or [Nakano]: |Z|l

I := ´

ınf{α > 0 : I(Z/α) ≤ 1} and |Z|a

I := ´

ınf

  • 1

k + I(kZ) k

: k > 0

  • are equivalent norms

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 9 / 20

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SLIDE 21

Relation to the robust problem

Suppose dQ/dP ⊂ LI: If Z := dQ/dP ∈ LI then C(x)|Z|I ≥ uQ(x) ≥ c(x)|Z|I Notice v(y) = y ´ ınfZ I(Z/y) and |Z|a

I ≤ 1 + I(Z)

So if LI is reflexive or I inf-compact, v(y) is attained ⇒ We must explore topology of LI and related spaces ... Let us define: EI =

  • Z ∈ L0 s.t. ∀α > 0, I(αZ) < ∞
  • J(X) =

sup

Y∈YP(1)

E[YU−1(X)] and LJ, EJ accordingly Technical assumption: I, J remain the same when computed using {Y ∈ YP(1) : YT > 0 and ∀β > 0, E[V(βY)] < ∞} instead of YP(1)

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 10 / 20

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SLIDE 22

Relation to the robust problem

Suppose dQ/dP ⊂ LI: If Z := dQ/dP ∈ LI then C(x)|Z|I ≥ uQ(x) ≥ c(x)|Z|I Notice v(y) = y ´ ınfZ I(Z/y) and |Z|a

I ≤ 1 + I(Z)

So if LI is reflexive or I inf-compact, v(y) is attained ⇒ We must explore topology of LI and related spaces ... Let us define: EI =

  • Z ∈ L0 s.t. ∀α > 0, I(αZ) < ∞
  • J(X) =

sup

Y∈YP(1)

E[YU−1(X)] and LJ, EJ accordingly Technical assumption: I, J remain the same when computed using {Y ∈ YP(1) : YT > 0 and ∀β > 0, E[V(βY)] < ∞} instead of YP(1)

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 10 / 20

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SLIDE 23

Relation to the robust problem

Suppose dQ/dP ⊂ LI: If Z := dQ/dP ∈ LI then C(x)|Z|I ≥ uQ(x) ≥ c(x)|Z|I Notice v(y) = y ´ ınfZ I(Z/y) and |Z|a

I ≤ 1 + I(Z)

So if LI is reflexive or I inf-compact, v(y) is attained ⇒ We must explore topology of LI and related spaces ... Let us define: EI =

  • Z ∈ L0 s.t. ∀α > 0, I(αZ) < ∞
  • J(X) =

sup

Y∈YP(1)

E[YU−1(X)] and LJ, EJ accordingly Technical assumption: I, J remain the same when computed using {Y ∈ YP(1) : YT > 0 and ∀β > 0, E[V(βY)] < ∞} instead of YP(1)

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 10 / 20

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SLIDE 24

Topology

Under the technical assumption:

Theorem ([B.,Fontbona14])

  • lder inequality holds between LI and LJ

The dual of EI is isom. isomorphic to LJ Most importantly:

Theorem ([B.,Fontbona14])

If YP(1) is not u.i., then EI and LI cannot be reflexive. In the complete case YP(1) is u.i. In the incomplete case this happens in pathological cases only.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 11 / 20

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SLIDE 25

Main result

Theorem ([B.,Fontbona14])

Under the technical assumption (e.g. 1 ∈ YP(1)) and: Q is convex and Qe = ∅ P(A) = 0 ⇐ ⇒ ∀Q ∈ Q : Q(A) = 0

dQ dP ∩ LI(P) is σ(LI, LJ)−closed and ∃Q ∈ Qe s.t. uQ(·) < ∞

If LI = EI (e.g. AE(U) < 1), then the minimax equality holds, u and v are conjugate and there is an optimal X ∈ X(x). If further EI is reflexive (e.g. market completeness + U−1 ∈ ∆2) then there is a worst ˆ Q ∈ Q and most results in [SchiedWu05] hold also. Central arguments: U(X(x)) contained in weak*-compact set in LJ. Under reflexivity, simply use subsequence principle in EI.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 12 / 20

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SLIDE 26

Main result

Theorem ([B.,Fontbona14])

Under the technical assumption (e.g. 1 ∈ YP(1)) and: Q is convex and Qe = ∅ P(A) = 0 ⇐ ⇒ ∀Q ∈ Q : Q(A) = 0

dQ dP ∩ LI(P) is σ(LI, LJ)−closed and ∃Q ∈ Qe s.t. uQ(·) < ∞

If LI = EI (e.g. AE(U) < 1), then the minimax equality holds, u and v are conjugate and there is an optimal X ∈ X(x). If further EI is reflexive (e.g. market completeness + U−1 ∈ ∆2) then there is a worst ˆ Q ∈ Q and most results in [SchiedWu05] hold also. Central arguments: U(X(x)) contained in weak*-compact set in LJ. Under reflexivity, simply use subsequence principle in EI.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 12 / 20

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SLIDE 27

Uncertainty set as linear/convex constraints

We consider uncertainty set Q such that dQ dP = dQ dP ∈ LI : Θ dQ dP

  • ∈ C
  • for Θ : LI(Ω, P) → B a linear operator of integral type, taking values in

some vector space B (possibly ∞-dim.) and C ⊆ B a convex subset. More precisely, there is a measurable function θ : Ω → B such that Θ(Z) = EP(Zθ) ∈ B This includes moment constraints on “ observables” of any dimension; in particular, any restriction (or belief) of distributional type on prices or assets can be described in this way

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 13 / 20

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SLIDE 28

Uncertainty set as convex constraints: complete case

Minimization problem is embedded into the space Mf of finite signed measures M on Ω: Φ(M) :=

  • I
  • dM

dP

  • =

dM

dP V

  • [ dM

dP ]−1

P(dω) if M ≥ 0 and M ≪ P +∞

  • therwise

, adding the constraint EP( dM

dP ) = 1. We want:

PC

Minimize Φ(M) subject to Θ1(M) ∈ C1 , M ∈ Mf where Θ1(M) = (

  • Ω θdM,
  • Ω 1dM) ∈ B1 = B × R and C1 = C × {1}

DC

sup

  • ´

ınf

x∈ ¯ B1∩C1

g, x −

  • U−1(g, θ(·))dP : g ∈ B∗

1

  • Julio Daniel Backhoff ()

Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 14 / 20

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SLIDE 29

Uncertainty set as convex constraints: complete case

Minimization problem is embedded into the space Mf of finite signed measures M on Ω: Φ(M) :=

  • I
  • dM

dP

  • =

dM

dP V

  • [ dM

dP ]−1

P(dω) if M ≥ 0 and M ≪ P +∞

  • therwise

, adding the constraint EP( dM

dP ) = 1. We want:

PC

Minimize Φ(M) subject to Θ1(M) ∈ C1 , M ∈ Mf where Θ1(M) = (

  • Ω θdM,
  • Ω 1dM) ∈ B1 = B × R and C1 = C × {1}

DC

sup

  • ´

ınf

x∈ ¯ B1∩C1

g, x −

  • U−1(g, θ(·))dP : g ∈ B∗

1

  • Julio Daniel Backhoff ()

Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 14 / 20

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SLIDE 30

Uncertainty set as convex constraints: complete case

Minimization problem is embedded into the space Mf of finite signed measures M on Ω: Φ(M) :=

  • I
  • dM

dP

  • =

dM

dP V

  • [ dM

dP ]−1

P(dω) if M ≥ 0 and M ≪ P +∞

  • therwise

, adding the constraint EP( dM

dP ) = 1. We want:

PC

Minimize Φ(M) subject to Θ1(M) ∈ C1 , M ∈ Mf where Θ1(M) = (

  • Ω θdM,
  • Ω 1dM) ∈ B1 = B × R and C1 = C × {1}

DC

sup

  • ´

ınf

x∈ ¯ B1∩C1

g, x −

  • U−1(g, θ(·))dP : g ∈ B∗

1

  • Julio Daniel Backhoff ()

Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 14 / 20

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SLIDE 31

Finding the minimizer

We adapt some results in [L´ eonard08], since our functions do not fulfil a relevant hypothesis therein...

Theorem ([B.,Fontbona14])

Under above assumptions and ours on U, V: There is dual equality PC = DC If C1 ∩ Θ1(dom(Φ)) = ∅, PC has a unique solution in LI If moreover C1 ∩ icor(Θ1(dom(Φ))) = ∅ the solution of PC is given by ˆ Q = dU−1 dz (< ˜ g, θ >)dP. where ˜ g solves DC. Here, icor(A) = {a ∈ A|∀x ∈ aff(A), ∃t > 0 tq. a + t(x − a) ∈ A}.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 15 / 20

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SLIDE 32

Example

Consider on

  • Ω, F, {Ft}T

t=0 , P

  • , and for t ≤ T, the 1d-diffusion

dSt = St{bdt + σdWt}, S0 = 1 Unique risk neutral measure is dP∗/dP = exp

  • − b

σWT − b2 2σ2 T

  • .

We take U(x) = 2√x, x ∈ (0, ∞), thus LI = L2. For A ≥ 0, consider the uncertainty set Q = {Q ≪ P : EQ(ST) ≥ A} which is not closed in L0 and not bounded in L2, but is weakly closed in L2. Constraint qualification condition holds by Girsanov Thm. We now assume eσ2T > A > 1 for simplicity.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 16 / 20

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SLIDE 33

Solution

By Fenchel duality, it follows:

´ ınf

Q∈Q EP

dQ dP V

  • yYT dP

dQ

  • = sup

R2

  • z1 + Az2 − y

4 EP (z1 + STz2)21z1+ST z2>0

  • Right-hand side can be solved, and by means of the duality relation

between u and v, we get: u(x) = 2

  • x
  • 1 + (A − 1)2

eσ2T − 1

  • ,

ˆ Q(dω) = eσ2T − A + ST(A − 1) eσ2T − 1 P(dω) and ˆ XT := x

  • eσ2T − A + ST(A − 1)

2

  • eσ2T − 1 + (A − 1)2

eσ2T − 1 .

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 17 / 20

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SLIDE 34

Functional setting and methodology to solve robust problem in general “markets with uncertainties” is proposed. Obtained minimax equality, conjugacy of value functions and existence of optimal wealth... without a worst-case model! Currently some classical results can only be recovered in the complete case, and approach is not readily generalizable. Worst-case measure can be explicitly (or numerically) computed when uncertainty set is determined by finitely many moment

  • constraints. Expressions hold however in great generality.

In the non-dominated case one can itroduce similar spaces; nevertheless, the absolute key topological result regarding the indentification of the “dual of LI” remains ellusive ... and probably would not yield function-like elements!

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 18 / 20

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SLIDE 35

Bibliography I

  • D. Kramkov, W. Schachermayer: “ The Asymptotic Elasticity Of

Utility Functions And Optimal Investment In Incomplete Markets ”,

  • Ann. Appl. Probab. 9 (1999), no. 3, 904–950.
  • A. Schied, C.-T Wu: “ Duality theory for optimal investments under

model uncertainty ”, Statist. Decisions 23 (2005), no. 3, 199–217.

  • I. Karatzas, J. Lehoczky, S. Shreve: “ Optimal portfolio and

consumption decisions for a small investor on a finite horizon” SIAM J. Control Optim. 25 1557-1586

  • A. Kozek. “ Orlicz spaces of functions with values in banach

spaces.” Comment. Math. Prace Mat., 1976.

  • A. Kozek. “Convex integral functionals on orlicz spaces. ”
  • Comment. Math. Prace Mat., 21, no. 1:109–135, 1980.
  • J. Musielak: “Orlicz spaces and Modular spaces”, Lecture notes in

Mathematics, 1034, Springer-Verlag, Berlin 1983.

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 19 / 20

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SLIDE 36

Bibliography II

H.Nakano: “Topology and linear topological spaces”.

  • C. L´

eonard: “ Minimization of energy functionals applied to some inverse problems ” Appl. Math. Optim. 44 (2001), no. 3, 273–297

  • C. L´

eonard: “ Minimization of entropy functionals ” J. Math. Anal.

  • Appl. 346 (2008), no. 1, 183–204.
  • J. Backhoff, J. Fontbona: “ Robust utility maximization without

model compactness ” (submitted, http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0251)

Julio Daniel Backhoff () Workshop London Nov. 2014 29/11/2014 20 / 20