a net based formal framework for causal loop diagrams
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A Net-based Formal Framework for Causal Loop Diagrams Guillermina Cledou 1 and Shin Nakajima 2 1 HASLab INESC TEC & University of Minho, Braga, Portugal 2 NaEonal InsEtute of InformaEcs, Tokyo, Japan CSD&M Asia 2018 Context Managing

  1. A Net-based Formal Framework for Causal Loop Diagrams Guillermina Cledou 1 and Shin Nakajima 2 1 HASLab INESC TEC & University of Minho, Braga, Portugal 2 NaEonal InsEtute of InformaEcs, Tokyo, Japan CSD&M Asia 2018

  2. Context Managing complex systems Productivity (PD) Assignment + + Work Rate (AR) Calendar Completion Assignment Time (CT) Rate (WCR) Backlog (AB) + Time + + Remaining Work (TR) Pressure (WP) Effort Devoted Due Date (DD) to Assignments (EDA) Workweek + (WW) Structure Behaviour Dynamics � 2

  3. Context Managing complex systems Productivity (PD) Assignment + + Work Rate (AR) Calendar Completion Assignment Time (CT) Rate (WCR) Backlog (AB) + Time + + Remaining Work (TR) Pressure (WP) Effort Devoted Due Date (DD) to Assignments (EDA) Workweek + (WW) Structure Behaviour Dynamics Understand causal links between variables of the system � 3

  4. Context Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) Managing complex systems (QualitaEve approach) Productivity (PD) Assignment + + Work Rate (AR) Calendar Completion Assignment Time (CT) Rate (WCR) Backlog (AB) + Time + + Remaining Work (TR) Pressure (WP) Effort Devoted Due Date (DD) to Assignments (EDA) Workweek + (WW) Structure Behaviour Dynamics Understand causal links between variables of the system � 4

  5. Causal Loop Diagrams Illustrates causal links between concepts Causes and Effects + - Var1 Var2 Var2 Var1 (delay) Abstracts from quanHHes + + Variables only Increase or Decrease Var1 Var2 - Describes system structure Links’ polariHes : How the independent variable affects the dependent one? Brings out dynamic behaviour � 5

  6. Causal Loop Diagrams Reinforcing Balancing Balancing with delay [C.W. Kirkwood, System Dynamic Methods ] � 6

  7. Causal Loop Diagrams - B9 Used Vehicles for Used Vehicle Used Vehicles Sale Prices Population Challenges + Degree of Market Saturation B1 B8 + Vehicle Price-Demand Effect Market Saturation of Vehicles + • Complex interacEons - New Vehicle - Present Vehicle Demand New Vehicle Population Purchases - Market Retail + + Price + + • Informal semanEcs New Vehicle Price - B5 Producer-Consumer Fuel Emissions Interaction Effects + Factors Vehicle Fuel Efficiency - Producer Supply of Market Share of Fuel + + - B4 New Vehicles Efficient Vehicles Fuel Demand + + Producer Profit In-Use Emissions + B6 + Fuel Price + - Consumer B7 + Demand for Fuel Total Vehicle Miles + + Efficient Traveled Fuel Demand Marginal Production Vehicles Unit Profit - Cost of Efficiency + <Vehicle Fuel Producer Emphasis + Efficiency> on Efficiency + Relative Marginal Utility + Miles/Veh of Efficiency vs. Cost/mile Performance - + - + R1 Lightweight + + <New Vehicle Material Demand Production Cost Demand> <Vehicle Fuel Scrappage of Aging <Vehicle Fuel + + Efficiency> + + Vehicles Effect Efficiency> Scrappage Rate Recyclability + + + + LW Recycled - Lightweight LW Virgin Exploration Matetial Production Material Price and Production - + - Number of B3 <LW Recycled B2 Scrapped Vehicles Material Stock> Virgin Material Recycled Material + LW Recycled + Total Lightweight Material Stock LW Virgin Material Stock + Material Stock + + External Sources of Recycled Material Production + + <Producer Supply of Emissions Vehicle Production New Vehicles> [M.D. Stepp et al., Greenhouse gas mitigation policies Emission Factors + + + and the transportation sector: The role of feedback e ff ects on policy e ff ectiveness ] Material Emissions � 7 + + Factors

  8. Causal Loop Diagrams - B9 Used Vehicles for Used Vehicle Used Vehicles Sale Prices Population Challenges + Degree of Market Saturation B1 B8 + Vehicle Price-Demand Effect Market Saturation of Vehicles + • Complex interacEons - New Vehicle - Present Vehicle Demand New Vehicle Population Purchases - Market Retail + + Price + + • Informal semanEcs New Vehicle Price - B5 Producer-Consumer Fuel Emissions Interaction Effects + Factors Vehicle Fuel Efficiency - Producer Supply of Market Share of Fuel + PaOern of behaviour? + - B4 New Vehicles Efficient Vehicles Fuel Demand + + Producer Profit In-Use Emissions + B6 + Fuel Price + - Consumer B7 + Demand for Fuel Total Vehicle Miles + + Efficient Traveled Fuel Demand Marginal Production Vehicles Unit Profit - Cost of Efficiency + <Vehicle Fuel Producer Emphasis + Efficiency> on Efficiency ? + Relative Marginal Utility + Miles/Veh of Efficiency vs. Cost/mile Performance X - + - + R1 Lightweight + + <New Vehicle Material Demand Production Cost Demand> <Vehicle Fuel Scrappage of Aging <Vehicle Fuel + + Efficiency> + + Vehicles Effect Efficiency> Scrappage Rate Recyclability + + + + LW Recycled - Lightweight LW Virgin Exploration Matetial Production Material Price and Production Eme - + - Number of B3 <LW Recycled B2 Scrapped Vehicles Material Stock> Virgin Material Recycled Material + LW Recycled + Total Lightweight Material Stock LW Virgin Material Stock + Material Stock + + External Sources of Recycled Material Production + + <Producer Supply of Emissions Vehicle Production New Vehicles> [M.D. Stepp et al., Greenhouse gas mitigation policies Emission Factors + + + and the transportation sector: The role of feedback e ff ects on policy e ff ectiveness ] Material Emissions � 8 + + Factors

  9. Causal Loop Diagrams - B9 Used Vehicles for Used Vehicle Used Vehicles Sale Prices Population Challenges + Degree of Market Saturation B1 B8 + Vehicle Price-Demand Effect Market Saturation of Vehicles + • Complex interacEons - New Vehicle - Present Vehicle Demand New Vehicle Population Purchases - Market Retail + + Price SimulaEon 
 + + • Informal semanEcs New Vehicle Price - (not exhausEve) B5 Producer-Consumer Fuel Emissions Interaction Effects + Factors Vehicle Fuel Efficiency - Producer Supply of Market Share of Fuel + PaOern of behaviour? + - B4 New Vehicles Efficient Vehicles Fuel Demand + + Producer Profit In-Use Emissions + B6 + Fuel Price + - Consumer B7 + Demand for Fuel Total Vehicle Miles + + Efficient Traveled Fuel Demand Marginal Production Vehicles Unit Profit - Cost of Efficiency + <Vehicle Fuel Producer Emphasis + Efficiency> on Efficiency ? + Relative Marginal Utility + Miles/Veh of Efficiency vs. Cost/mile Performance X - + - + R1 Lightweight + + <New Vehicle Material Demand Production Cost Demand> <Vehicle Fuel Scrappage of Aging <Vehicle Fuel + + Efficiency> + + Vehicles Effect Efficiency> Scrappage Rate Recyclability + + + + LW Recycled - Lightweight LW Virgin Exploration Matetial Production Material Price and Production Eme - + - Number of B3 <LW Recycled B2 Scrapped Vehicles Material Stock> Virgin Material Recycled Material + LW Recycled + Total Lightweight Material Stock LW Virgin Material Stock + Material Stock + + External Sources of Recycled Material Production + + <Producer Supply of Emissions Vehicle Production New Vehicles> [M.D. Stepp et al., Greenhouse gas mitigation policies Emission Factors + + + and the transportation sector: The role of feedback e ff ects on policy e ff ectiveness ] Material Emissions � 9 + + Factors

  10. Causal Loop Diagrams - B9 Used Vehicles for Used Vehicle Used Vehicles Sale Prices Population Challenges + Degree of Market Saturation B1 B8 + Vehicle Price-Demand Effect Market Saturation of Vehicles + • Complex interacEons - New Vehicle - Present Vehicle Demand New Vehicle Population Purchases - Market Retail + + Price SimulaEon 
 + + • Informal semanEcs New Vehicle Price - (not exhausEve) B5 Producer-Consumer Fuel Emissions Interaction Effects + Factors Vehicle Fuel Efficiency - Producer Supply of Market Share of Fuel + PaOern of behaviour? + - B4 New Vehicles Efficient Vehicles Fuel Demand + + Producer Profit In-Use Emissions + B6 + Fuel Price + - Consumer B7 + Demand for Fuel Total Vehicle Miles + + Efficient Traveled Fuel Demand Marginal Production Vehicles Unit Profit - Cost of Efficiency + <Vehicle Fuel Producer Emphasis + Efficiency> on Efficiency ? + Relative Marginal Utility + Miles/Veh of Efficiency vs. Cost/mile Performance X - + - + R1 Lightweight + + <New Vehicle Material Demand Production Cost Demand> <Vehicle Fuel Scrappage of Aging <Vehicle Fuel + + Efficiency> + + Vehicles Effect Efficiency> Scrappage Rate Recyclability + + + + LW Recycled - Lightweight LW Virgin Exploration Matetial Production Material Price and Production Eme - + - Number of B3 <LW Recycled B2 Scrapped Vehicles Material Stock> Virgin Material Recycled Material + LW Recycled + Total Lightweight Material Stock LW Virgin Formal Analysis 
 Material Stock + Material Stock Formal semanHcs + + (exhausEve) External Sources of Recycled Material Production + + <Producer Supply of Emissions Vehicle Production New Vehicles> [M.D. Stepp et al., Greenhouse gas mitigation policies Emission Factors + + + and the transportation sector: The role of feedback e ff ects on policy e ff ectiveness ] Material Emissions � 10 + + Factors

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