MAKING A DIFFERENCE AND HOW WE KNOW A Longitudinal Analysis of Fall 2009 FTFTF Cohort Graduation at Fresno State 40 th CAIR Annual Conference | Nov 6, 2015 | San Francisco, CA Hongtao Yue | Senior Research Analyst Dr. Angel A. Sanchez | Associate Vice President Office of Institutional Effectiveness | California State University, Fresno
Introduction Content • Introduction • Research Design • Findings • Discussion
Introduction CSU Graduation Initiative 2015 • “Raising Overall Achievement and Closing Gaps: Delivering the Access to Excellence Goals” project. In Fall 2009, CO launch a Graduation Initiative involving all 23 CSU campuses with the aim of improving graduation rates and closing the achievement gaps among students. • The initiative is expected to raise six-year graduation rates by eight percentage points by 2015 (from 46 percent to 54 percent), plus cut in half the existing gap in degree attainment by CSU’s underrepresented students
Introduction Fresno State Graduation Initiative 2015 In response to the system “Raising Overall Achievement and Closing Gaps: Delivering the Access to Excellence Goals” project, Fresno State launched its own graduation initiative: • By 2015, raise the six year graduation rate for first time full time freshmen by 6 points (from 48% to 54%). • It will also halve the graduation gap between under- represented minorities and others by half.
Introduction Six years later at Fresno State 6-Year Graduation Rate Reducing the Achievement Gap Achievement Fresno State achieved a reduction in the achievement gap for underrepresented minority Fresno State realized a 6-year graduation rate students. The achievement gap decreased from achievement of 58.4% for the 2009 first-time 10.2 percentage points (for 2006 cohort) to 5.1 freshman (FTFTF) cohort. percentage points (for 2009 cohort).
Research design Purpose of the study What happened to the Fall 2009 cohort so that it had the highest graduation rate in Fresno State history? A Conceptual Framework Enrollment Cohort Term Academic Six-year quality performance progression graduation Major status Fall 2009 FTFTF cohort (N=2620, six-year graduation rate=58.4%) Fall 2003 FTFTF cohort (N=2486, six-year graduation rate=47.7%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Undergraduate education pathway (6 years or 12 terms)
Research design Research plan Step 1: Identifying Step 2: Evaluating Step 3: Linking to changes across terms the importance of institutional efforts between two cohorts the changes Changes Timing Relative importance Institutional efforts IR roles 1. Cohort quality (entry characteristics) Demographics Academic preparation 2. Cohort enrollment Stopout and enrolled terms Enrolled % Left % Term units enrolled Full-time status 3. Term performance Term GPA Term units earned 4. Major status Major declaration Major change Double majors/Minors Major type (STEM vs. Non-STEM) 5. Academic progress Cumulative units earned_EOT Cumulative GPA_EOT % of on-tracking % of sophomores, juniors, and seniors
Findings I Step 1: Identifying changes across terms between two cohorts (longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts using Tableau dashboards)
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Cohort quality Graduation Enrollment I: Enrollment II: Term Term Major performance I: performance II: status I: Cohort Fall 2009 Fall 2003 Demographics Female (%) FGS (%) Ethnicity (%) Fall 2009 Fall 2003 60.1% 62.1% Fall 2009 Fall 2009 African American 6.7% 6.9% 60.5% 60.8% Fall 2003 Fall 2003 American Indian 0.5% 0.6% Asian 15.5% 15.2% Non-Resident Alien 1.6% 1.9% Pell eligibility (%) URM (%) Other/ Unknown 9.8% 9.5% Fall 2009 50.0% Fall 2009 43.3% Pacific Islander 0.3% 0.5% White 29.8% 36.8% Fall 2003 47.3% Fall 2003 36.6% Hispanic 35.8% 28.5% Academic preparation HS GPA SAT Comp Eng/Math remediation 1600 Fall 2009 Fall 2003 27.9% 38.4% 1-Didn't require any 4.5 1400 20.2% 12.4% 2-Require Eng only 8.1% 20.8% 4.0 3-Required Math only 1200 4-Required both ENG 43.8% 28.4% and Math 3.5 3.31 3.29 1000 950 945 Pre college experience 3.0 22.4% Fall 2009 800 22.2% Fall 2003 2.5 600 Fall 2009 cohort is more challenging 2.0 than Fall 2003 cohort. 400 Fall 2009 Fall 2003 Fall 2009 Fall 2003
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Cohort quality Graduation Enrollment I: Enrollment II: Term Term Major performance I: performance II: status I: Cohort Fall 2009 Fall 2003 Graduation 60% 58.4% % of Graduated (cumulative) 47.8% 50% Higher graduation of Fall 2009 50.0% 44.4% cohort occurred starting from the 40% 41.5% 8th term, before which there is 36.9% not much difference. 30% 24.8% 20% 22.0% 15.5% 14.2% 10% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 20% 19.6% % of Graduated in term 14.9% 15% 14.0% 11.7% 10% 9.3% 8.5% 7.8% 6.3% 5.5% 5% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Cohort quality Graduation Enrollment I: Enrollment II: Term Term Major performance I: performance II: status I: Cohort Fall 2009 Fall 2003 Enrolled 96.8% 100% 86.6% 84.1% 79.7% 77.2% 80% 73.7% 73.0% 71.8% % of Enrolled 70.3% 65.7% 62.6% 60% 55.4% 47.7% 45.5% More Fall 2009 students 38.5% 40% enrolled in school. 23.5% 16.9% 20% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Distribution of total enrolled terms 21.7% 20% More Fall 2009 students enrolled 16.5% 18.1% for 8 or more terms. 15% 13.4% 11.7% 9.6% 10% 10.5% 8.6% 6.4% 5.1% 6.6% 4.4% 4.3% 5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 4.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total enrolled terms
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Cohort Graduation Enrollment I: Enrollment II: Term Term Major status I: quality performance I: performance II: Cohort Fall 2003 Fall 2009 Term units enrolled 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.3 Term units enrolled 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.9 Fall 2009 students enrolled 13.0 13.0 12.7 slightly less units across terms. 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.9 100% 98.1% 100.0% 97.1% 96.9% 96.9% 96.6% 96.0% 97.0% 94.9% 96.8% 96.7% 95% 95.5% 95.2% 95.0% % of Full-time 91.2% 93.1% 90% 89.6% More Fall 2009 students enrolled 85.2% 85% as full-time students in the middle 81.8% 83.6% terms. 80% 77.1% 75.9% 76.6% 75% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Enrolled Headcount by terms 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2,620 2,535 2,270 2,204 2,089 2,022 1,930 1,881 1,451 1,192 617 444 Fall 2009 2,486 2,348 2,086 1,977 1,816 1,747 1,634 1,555 1,187 958 539 407 Fall 2003
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Graduation Enrollment I: Enrollment II: Term Term Major status I: Major status performance I: performance II: II: Cohort Fall 2003 Fall 2009 Term units earned 13.3 13.4 13.3 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.8 Term units earned 12.9 12.6 12.8 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 Fall 2009 students have 11.9 11.6 earned more units and have 11.6 11.4 higher ratio of term units 11.2 11.0 earned to enrolled. 11.1 11.0 10.8 % of Term units earned to enrol.. 93% 93% 92% 91% 92% 91% 91% 90% 89% 88% 88% 86% 86% 85% 85% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 83% 81% 81% 80% 80% 79% 77% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Enrolled Headcount by terms 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2,620 2,535 2,270 2,204 2,089 2,022 1,930 1,881 1,451 1,192 617 444 Fall 2009 2,486 2,348 2,086 1,977 1,816 1,747 1,634 1,555 1,187 958 539 407 Fall 2003
Longitudinal comparisons of two cohorts Enrollment Enrollment II: Term Term Major status I: Major status II: Academic I: performance I: performance II: progress I: Cohort Fall 2003 Fall 2009 Term GPA and good academic standing 2.93 2.91 2.90 2.87 2.86 2.83 2.83 2.86 2.80 Term GPA 2.80 2.82 2.77 2.76 2.77 2.77 2.73 2.75 2.72 2.73 2.69 2.70 2.71 2.71 2.67 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.57 96% 96% % of Good academic standing 97% 95% 96% 95% 95% 94% 95% 94% 93% 94% 92% 93% 90% 91% 91% 90% 89% 87% Fall 2009 students have higher term GPA and higher % of being on good academic standing after the 1st 85% 84% 84% 84% 85% term. 82% 82% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Enrolled Headcount by terms 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Fall 2009 2,620 2,535 2,270 2,204 2,089 2,022 1,930 1,881 1,451 1,192 617 444 Fall 2003 2,486 2,348 2,086 1,977 1,816 1,747 1,634 1,555 1,187 958 539 407
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