A Climate Change Solu(on We Can Live With Presenta(on for the Dean - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presenta(on for the Dean Democra(c Club May 14, 2018

A Climate Change Solu(on We Can Live With

Bob Marshalla Ci(zens’ Climate Lobby Silicon Valley North Chapter

About Me

TOPICS FOR TODAY

• 1. What we know about climate change
• 2. Our proposed soluEon
• 3. Profile of CiEzens Climate Lobby

Burning coal, gas and oil produces CO2

…and we’ve been burning lots of it

43% more CO2 now in the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere has increased sharply in our life(mes, and is now higher than its been in over 2 million years.

From 280 ppm to >400 ppm now

..and ..and this this enhanc nhances s the the gr greenho nhouse use effe ffect

The Natural Greenhouse Effect naturally increases earth’s temperature by over 60oF The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect has ar(ficially increased earth’s temperature by 1.8oF

And that’s why the Earth is warming

The 16 warmest years on record have all occurred within the last 17 years.

hYps://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what%E2%80%99s-hoYest-earth-has-been- %E2%80%9Clately%E2%80%9D

0.8 0.4

• 0.4
• 0.8
• Beginning of Civiliza(on

deg C

Temperature Increase in 10,000 Years Context

Hasn’t the earth gone thru heaEng & cooling cycles before?

Yes, but the cycles averaged roughly 100,000 years, not 100 years!

u Na(onal Climate Assessment Report released last fall.

u

Produced every 4 years by hundreds of experts from government and academia, peer reviewed by the Na(onal Academy of Sciences and reviewed by 13 Federal agencies. Among its many findings: “Human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid 20th century. …there are no convincing alterna(ve explana(ons supported by the extent of observa(onal evidence.”

u

Look it up at: hYps://science2017.globalchange.gov/

In recent news …

ScienEfic Consensus about Human Caused Global Warming

u Over 200 worldwide scien(fic and professional

• rganiza(ons:

AAAS, Nat’l Academy of Sciences, NASA, AMA, American Meteorological Society, World Bank, U.N., IPCC, etc.

u All of the major oil companies

Shell, BP, Total, ENI, Exxon-Mobil (!), Chevron, etc

u Pope Francis u 195 countries at the 2015 U.N. Conference in Paris u Virtually all of the major poli(cal par(es of all countries

Who else endorses AGW?

Effects of climate change

Climate change evidence all around us

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Sobrantes Fire Lake Temescal Algae Lake Oroville – California Drought

Intensity of Hurricanes Amplified

• Warmer ocean fuels stronger hurricanes (higher wind speeds)
• More water vapor in atmosphere causes more rain and flooding
• Sea level rise causes bigger storm surges

Hurricane Harvey

Sea Level Rise is AcceleraEng

Wildfires Becoming Larger & More Frequent

Warmer Air & Water Leads to Both More Floods & More Drought

• 5-10% more water vapor in atmosphere than 50 years ago
• While vanishing ice in the Arc(c has altered the jet stream
• Result is more rain in some areas, but less in others
• Also dries soil due to increased evapora(on

Lake Oroville – California Drought

Ecological Havoc

19

27 million dead trees in the Sierras

But the Future is Far from Baked In

What is CCL’s soluEon?

We We know how to solve this: Make this mo more expensive If w If we w e wan ant less of t less of this, is,

This is CCL’s Calling Card!

Place a fee on fossil fuels at the source (mine, well or port) - $15/ton of CO2 ini(ally + $10/yr. Return all of the revenue to households equally. A border adjustment on goods imported from or exported to countries without an equivalent price on carbon.

2 1 3 Carbon Fee and Dividend Policy

George Shultz

Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State

“We argue for revenue neutrality on the grounds that this tax should be exclusively for the purpose of leveling the playing field, not for financing some other government programs or for expanding the government sector.”

CCL Advisory Board

“Before you get mugged by reality, take out an insurance policy. It’s the Regan way” – Wash. Post, 3/13/15

Is this a Democrats Only SoluEon? No!

Preparing for or AdvocaEng for Carbon Fees

OTHER WELL KNOWN REPUBLICANS James Baker Hank Paulson Mib Romney Lindsey Graham Rex Tillerson MarEn Feldstein

CONSERVATIVE ECONOMISTS

u Jerry Taylor – former climate change skep(c

with Cato Ins(tute, now author of “The Conserva,ve Case for a Carbon Tax”

u Greg Mankiw – Harvard economist &

former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisors for Pres. George W. Bush

u Gary Becker – U. of Chicago economist,

winner of Nobel Prize and Presiden(al Medal of Freedom, strong advocate of carbon fees

25

COMPANIES ALREADY ACCOUNTING FOR A CARBON FEE American Elec Pwr, BP Chevron, ConocoPhillips Delta Air, Duke Energy DuPont, General Electric ExxonMobil, Google General Electric Microsoe, PG&E Walt Disney, Walmart Wells Fargo

What will be the effects of Carbon Fee and Dividend ?

Incomes Emissions Economy (jobs and GDP) Health Na(onal and regional study from REMI

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

Carbon Fee and Dividend

31% 50%

*Below 1990 levels

Within 10 years* Within 20 years*

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

Emissions reducEons

2.1M New Jobs

10 years

2.8M New Jobs

20 years

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

Jobs created

$70 - $85B/year

Average

$1.375 T

20 years

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

GDP Growth

$288/month*

10 years

$396/month*

20 years *For a family of four

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

Household Dividend

Household Impacts Study

• Study to assess CFD impacts by demographic groups
• Shows upper bounds of CFD costs because it assumes no

change in how much of each good households purchase

• 72% of all households experience net benefits or costs

< 0.2% of income

• Same is true for 88% of lowest income quin(le

Household Imp mpacts by Income me Qu QuinNle

NaNonal Results – – Percent benefi fited

Ca Carbon

• n In

Inten ensity of El y of Elect ectrici city S y Supply y

227,000 lives

Over 20 years

Under Carbon Fee and Dividend

Lives Saved

• Reduces carbon dioxide
• Increases household incomes
• Saves Lives
• 2 million more jobs

Employment Climate Fiscal Humanitarian

REM REMI R I Rep epor

• rt S

Summa mary y

No economic case against Carbon Fee

• $1.3 trillion more GDP

Economic

Why Advocate for a CFD SoluEon?

• Uses market forces to reduce carbon emissions
• No new bureaucracies, heavy handed regula(ons,

picking winners or pet projects

• Economically beneficial overall – and especially for lower

income groups (on average)

• S
• It’s the most effec(ve policy for reducing CO2

emissions – AND -

• It’s the most likely approach to engender bipar(san

support

Who is CiEzens’ Climate Lobby?

CiEzens’ Climate Lobby (CCL)

u Founded in 2007 u >80,000 members u 455 chapters

Chapters in formaEon

u Nonpar(san, Nonprofit u Singular Mission: Lobby Congress

to pass Carbon Fee and Dividend

41

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 1241 255 534 711 1086 106

2017

73,988 personal lebers to members

• f Congress

Meet with Congress

1391 2016 1662 2017

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

3574 232 646 1676 2593 65

LeYers to Editor Op-eds Radio/TV Online Published Media

2016

2946

2017

4204

1952

2015 2014 2013 2012

412 695 1041

Public Speaking Tabling Outreach

2016

2403

2017

3320

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

308 42 74 148 228 13

Chapters

2016

360

2017

455

BiparEsan Climate SoluEons Caucus

Explore policy op(ons that address the impacts, causes, risks, and challenges of our changing climate Educate Members of Congress on economically viable op(ons Caucus now has 72 members.

46

EXTRA SLIDES

FOLLOWING SLIDES AVAILABLE BUT NOT IN PRESENTATION.

Exercise your poliEcal power! Exercise your personal power!

2 1

WHAT CAN I DO?

• Meet, write or call your member of Congress
• Encourage others to do the same
• Talk with others
• Reduce your carbon footprint

u Some fossil fuel interests

• Coal companies, “small” oil & gas

u Organiza(ons / people with small government ideologies

• Cato Ins(tute, etc.

u Hired guns of the above

• Heartland Ins(tute, Koch Brothers network

Who does not endorse AGW?

The ‘No Warming in 18 Years’ Myth

Not to men4on, the last 16 years include 16 of the 17 warmest years ever recorded. How to mislead: Cherry pick a very hot year – 1998 – then compare to a local minimum.

The ‘No Warming in 18 Years’ Myth

Ø Surface temperature (atmosphere) has warmed, but more slowly over the past 10-20 years Ø Only 1-2% of global warming heats the surface/atmosphere Ø Over 90% of global warming goes into hea(ng the oceans Ø Over the past 18 years, the oceans and Earth have accumulated heat at a rate equivalent to 4 atomic bomb detona(ons per second, accelera(ng Ø This myth is based on cherry picking – ignoring over 90% of the data

Not to men4on, the last 16 years include 16 of the 17 warmest years ever recorded.

51

Global Warming Since the Industrial RevoluEon

Other Myths: “It’s the Sun. It’s Cosmic Rays! It’s the Earth’s Orbit!”

Ø Over the past 50 years, the amount

• f solar energy reaching the Earth has

decreased slightly Ø Since the early 80’s the cosmic ray flux has declined precipitously Ø During that same time, the planet has warmed rapidly Ø Can’t be the Earth’s orbit either: We’d be getting cooler.

53

Impact on Our Children and Grandchildren

Each 1°C Warming Reduces Snowpack by 23%