A Changing Congress Paul Anderson Rapoza Associates 113 th Congress - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A Changing Congress Paul Anderson Rapoza Associates 113 th Congress - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 15, 2023 45 likes •185 views

www.cdfi.org A Changing Congress Paul Anderson Rapoza Associates 113 th Congress House: GOP 232, Dems 199, Vacancies 4 Senate: Dems 55*, GOP 45 *Includes King (I ME) and Sanders (I VT) who caucus with the Democrats Recent

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SLIDE 1

A Changing Congress

Paul Anderson Rapoza Associates

www.cdfi.org

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SLIDE 2

113th Congress

House:

  • GOP 232, Dems 199,

Vacancies 4 Senate:

  • Dems 55*, GOP 45

*Includes King (I‐ME) and Sanders (I‐VT) who caucus with the Democrats

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SLIDE 3

Recent Congressional Turnover

Experience, House of Representatives, 113th Congress

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113th Congress - Turnover

Retirements, resignations, etc

  • 47 Members of the House
  • 11 members of the Senate

– Saxby Chambliss, R‐Ga., 70, 2 terms – Tom Harkin, D‐Iowa, 74, 5 terms – Mike Johanns, R‐Neb., 62, 1 term – Tim Johnson, D‐S.D., 67, 3 terms – Carl Levin, D‐Mich., 79, 6 terms – Jay Rockefeller, D‐W.Va., 76, 5 terms – Tom Coburn, R‐Okla., 65, 2 terms – Max Baucus, D‐Mont., 72, 6 terms – Jim DeMint, R‐S.C., 62, 2 terms – John Kerry, D‐Mass., 70, 5 terms – Frank R. Lautenberg, D‐N.J., 89, 5 terms

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Midterm Outlook

  • Historical trends are overrated
  • The issues are a wash
  • Democrats face significant challenges thanks to

an unfavorable the map and structural forces out

  • f their control
  • Demographics of congressional elections are like

a metronome

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SLIDE 6

Something Has to Give?

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Approval of Congressional Republicans

Approve Disapprove Unsure

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SLIDE 7

Partisan Lean of House/ Senate Seats

169, seats 38% 10 seats, 3% 256 seats, 59%

Cook Partisan Voting Index, House D EVEN R

52 seats 1 seat 47 seats

Cook Partisan Voting Index, Senate

R Even D

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SLIDE 8

Demographics of Midterm E lections

  • Midterm turnout is older than Presidential turnout
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Demographics of Midterm E lections

  • Midterm election turnout is less diverse than presidential election turnout
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Senate Outlook –

GOP needs 51 for majority

Source Safe/Likely Dem Leans Dem Tossup Leans GOP Safe/Likely GOP GOP Projection Cook 46 4 3 3 44 48.5 Rothenberg 47 1 5 2 45 49.5 Sabato 46 2 3 4 45 50.5 Average 46.3 2.3 3.7 3.0 44.7 49.5

2013 Obama Approval, selected states:

  • Montana:

33%

  • Louisiana:

40%

  • Kentucky:

35%

  • Arkansas:

35%

  • South Dakota:

32%

  • Alaska:

34%

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SLIDE 11

House Outlook

Safe/Likely Dem Lean Dem Tossup Lean GOP Safe/Likely GOP GOP Projection Cook 166 13 15 16 215 238.5 Rothenberg 179 14 15 10 217 234.5 Sabato 178 16 12 13 216 235

Prediction:

  • Status Quo
  • R+1

Needed for majority: 218

Democrats: AZ‐01 Kirkpatrick AZ‐02 Barber CA‐07 Bera CA‐36 Ruiz CA‐52 Peters FL‐18 Murphy FL‐26 Garcia IL‐10 Schneider NH‐01 Shea‐Porter NY‐21 OPEN WV‐03 Rahall Republicans: CO‐06 Coffman FL‐13 VACANT IA‐03 OPEN NJ‐03 OPEN 0 DEMOCRATS 4 REPUBLICANS

Cook Tossups:

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House Leadership Changes

House Ways and Means:

  • Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp

term limited. Paul Ryan may replace him. House Budget Committee:

  • Paul Ryan likely gives up Chair for Ways and Means
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Senate Leadership Changes

Senate Finance Committee:

  • Wyden (D‐OR) replaced Baucus (D‐MT)

Senate Appropriations Committee:

  • Mikulski (D‐MD) replaced Inouye (D‐HI)

Senate HELP Committee:

  • Harkin (D‐IA) retiring

If Republicans win:

  • McConnell (KY) replaces Reid (NV)as majority leader;
  • Crapo (ID) replaces Johnson (SD) on Banking;
  • Sessions (AL) replaces Murray (WA) on Budget;
  • Shelby (AL) or Cochran (MS) replaces Mikulski (MD) on

Appropriations

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SLIDE 14

House Appropriations Committee Turnover

Republicans

  • Harold Rogers, Kentucky, Chairman
  • Frank R. Wolf, Virginia
  • Jack Kingston, Georgia
  • Rodney P. Frelinghuysen, New Jersey
  • Tom Latham, Iowa
  • Robert B. Aderholt, Alabama
  • Kay Granger, Texas
  • Michael K. Simpson, Idaho
  • John Abney Culberson, Texas
  • Ander Crenshaw, Florida
  • John R. Carter, Texas
  • Ken Calvert, California
  • Tom Cole, Oklahoma
  • Mario Diaz‐Balart, Florida
  • Charles W. Dent, Pennsylvania
  • Tom Graves, Georgia
  • Kevin Yoder, Kansas
  • Steve Womack, Arkansas
  • Alan Nunnelee, Mississippi
  • Jeff Fortenberry, Nebraska
  • Tom Rooney, Florida
  • Chuck Fleischmann, Tennessee
  • Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington
  • David Joyce, Ohio
  • David Valadao, California
  • Andy Harris, MD, Maryland
  • Martha Roby, Alabama
  • Mark Amodei, Nevada
  • Chris Stewart, Utah

Democrats

  • Nita M. Lowey, New York
  • Marcy Kaptur, Ohio
  • Peter J. Visclosky, Indiana
  • José E. Serrano, New York
  • Rosa L. DeLauro, Connecticut
  • James P. Moran, Virginia
  • Ed Pastor, Arizona
  • David E. Price, North Carolina
  • Lucille Roybal‐Allard, California
  • Sam Farr, California
  • Chaka Fattah, Pennsylvania
  • Sanford D. Bishop, Jr., Georgia
  • Barbara Lee, California
  • Adam B. Schiff, California
  • Michael M. Honda, California
  • Betty McCollum, Minnesota
  • Tim Ryan, Ohio
  • Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Florida
  • Henry Cuellar, Texas
  • Chellie Pingree, Maine
  • Mike Quigley, Illinois
  • Bill Owens, New York