A A mu multi ti-ti tiered ADCI d ADCIRC-ba based s d storm rm - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A A mu multi ti-ti tiered ADCI d ADCIRC-ba based s d storm rm s sur urge a and w nd wave predict ction sy system

Brian Blanton, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill Rick Luettich, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, co-PI Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consulting, ASGS developer, ADCIRC Bootcamp organizer

Jessica Smith, Department of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, MS Candidate Graduate Student Chris Calloway, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill, software engineer Crystal Fulcher, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, ADCIRC grid development

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Extend/advance Adcirc Surge Guidance System (ASGS)
• Implement new ADCIRC grid for more comprehensive regional coverage
• Statistical/probabilistic hurricane tracks
• Statistical storm surge predictions
• Support ADCIRC users world-wide

Ma Main Project Activities

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Dr. Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consulting
• Held at US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Coastal and Hydraulics Lab (CHL) in Vicksburg, MS
• 2-4 May 2016
• Main topics:
• Grid development with SMS
• ADCIRC setup, simulations, and diagnostics
• Deploying the ASGS for forecasting applications.
• 50+ in-person and 7 virtual via webinar
• 8 students attended :
• North Carolina State University x2
• University of Central Florida
• Kunsan University (Korea) x4
• RPS Group

AD ADCIR CIRC C Boot Bootcamp

• 9 professionals:
• Stantec x3
• Taylor Engineering
• Woods Hole Group
• Florida Department of Environmental Protection
• Applied Technology & Management
• Ransom Environmental
• USACE ERDC CHL

End User Engagement

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Dr. Brian Batten, Dewberry, supporting FEMA
• Inundation grids for post-storm damage assessments
• UNC computed a ”rapid” Matthew hindcast with GAHM vortex

model and observed track

• “In the development of FEMA’s North Carolina Matthew Geospatial

Damage Assessment, ASGS’s Hurricane Matthew simulation was found to provide the best source of surge elevations as compared to

• bservations. The RENCI Matthew surge elevations were used to

establish flood depth information to facilitate initial building damage assessments to aid the FEMA disaster response by Dewberry under their Department of Homeland Security Remote Sensing Contract for Incident Management.”

Hu Hurri rricane e Ma Matthew

End User Engagement

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Doug Bausch, Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, Hawaii
• “I know it is a busy time, but we are supporting our colleagues in the Bahamas (NEMA and other agencies) and are very

interested in your products. Specifically the ADCIRC surge modeling…..”

• FEMA HQ
• ADCIRC output more relevant than NHC’s output for recovery purposes

Hu Hurri rricane e Ma Matthew

End User Engagement

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Science & Operations Officer, NWS

Newport/Morehead City NC

• Recent winter storm Helena
• "It appears the ADCIRC underestimated the water

levels at CG Hatteras today, by roughly 0.5 ft."

• “Thank you for quickly getting NC CERA back online
• n Friday evening. A collection of tide hydrographs

from 3 sites subject to water level rises in N/NNW/NNE wind events is also attached. CERA seemed to perform within about 0.5 ft of

• bservations at Hatteras Village. We have a NC state

run gauge at Cedar Island that is currently malfunctioning, so we did not get any observations there where CERA mostly focused the highest surge potential for this event.”

Win Winter Storm m Activitie tivities

End User Engagement

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Senior Hydrologist, NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center
• Sabine River and Pearl River flooding
• “As this flood approaches the Gulf in East Texas, it’s getting out of our domain. As well as significant impacts happening in Orange Texas

that have no real modeling available and really should be performed by a coastal model. Is there any thoughts or plans or possibly any completed runs that can be performed in ADCIRC? “

• We were able to provide guidance information from ASGS running on the Gulf of Mexico to “unanticipated” end-users.

In Inland flooding rea each ching coastal area eas

End User Engagement

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Implemented NOAA HSOFS grid for

ASGS prior to Hurricane Matthew

• Provided by NOAA CSDL
• Comprehensive US East coast and

GoMex coverage

• Considering splitting the grid into

east coast and Gulf of Mexico parts.

ADCIRC grid

Research Work and Accomplishments NOAA HSOFS Grid (1.8M nodes)

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Generated our own SQL database of all

hurricane forecast models, aligned with best-track times

• Enables comprehensive error analysis

Probabilistic track generation

Hurricane Isabel (2003) All Models Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Generated our own SQL database of all

hurricane forecast models, aligned with best-track times

• Currently using cross and along track

errors for OFCL model

• This is an extension of Davis et al (2010),

who used only cross-track errors

Probabilistic track generation

See poster by J. Smith, presented at AMS 2017 Student Symposium in Seattle 9x9 ensemble set for Hurricane Isabel (2003)

Davis, J. , Paramygin, V., Forrest, D., and Sheng, Y. (2010). Toward the probabilistic simulation of storm surge and inundation in a limited-resource environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 138(7):2953–2974.

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Real-time Matthew Experiments
• NHC Consensus +/- Direction and

speed errors

Probabilistic track generation

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Real-time Matthew Experiments
• NHC Consensus +/- Direction and

speed errors

• Individual Ensemble Members
• “Left” members more threatening

Probabilistic track generation

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Real-time Matthew Experiments
• NHC Consensus +/- Direction and

speed errors

• Individual Ensemble Members
• “Left” members more hazardous
• Exceedence Levels indicate GA/SC

coast substantially threatened

Probabilistic track generation

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Surrogate Model for ADCIRC (ADCIRC_Lite)

Least Squares, Response Surface (ADCIRC_Lite) Kriging Artificial Neural Networks Storm Population

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Previously developed Response Surface

Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination

• dashboards.renci.org:3000
• Allows concurrent, multi-user access

Web deployment of Statistical Model

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Previously developed Response Surface

Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination

• dashboards.renci.org:3000
• Allows concurrent, multi-user access
• Change parameters of model via sliders
• Radius to Max Winds
• Forward Speed
• Etc.

Web deployment of Statistical Model

Research Work and Accomplishments

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• ADCIRC/ASGS End user outreach, education, and support
• Broaden use of critical hazard assessment method
• Advanced, state-of-the-science real-time storm surge and wave predictions
• via ASGS, CERA web outlets
• More comprehensive regional coverage of ADCIRC grid
• Enable alternative, rapid, probabilistic water levels
• Currently targeted at NC coast for high-resolution

An Anticipa pated d Project Im Impac pact

CRC 2nd Annual Meeting

• Feb. 1-3, 2017

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Continue ASGS and ADCIRC grid development, education, and outreach
• Support end-users during tropical (and non-tropical) events
• Extend probabilistic track generator to incorporate intensity (maximum wind speed and

central pressure) and storm size (radius to maximum winds) parameters

• Integrate track generator with Web dashboard

Pr Proposed Follow-on

• n Wo

Work