4 th Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Presentation January 26, 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

4 th quarter 2016 earnings release presentation
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4 th Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Presentation January 26, 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

4 th Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Presentation January 26, 2017 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of


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SLIDE 1

4th Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Presentation

January 26, 2017

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SLIDE 2

“Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Investor Relations Contacts

Bette Jo Rozsa Managing Director Investor Relations 614-716-2840 bjrozsa@aep.com Brad Funk Director Investor Relations 614-716-3162 bmfunk@aep.com

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Although AEP and each of its Registrant Subsidiaries believe that their expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such statements may be influenced by factors that could cause actual

  • utcomes and results to be materially different from those projected. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-

looking statements are: the economic climate, growth or contraction within and changes in market demand and demographic patterns in our service territory, inflationary

  • r deflationary interest rate trends, volatility in the financial markets, particularly developments affecting the availability of capital on reasonable terms and developments

impairing our ability to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt at attractive rates, the availability or cost of capital to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt, the availability and cost of funds to finance working capital and capital needs, particularly during periods when the time lag between incurring costs and recovery is long and the costs are material, electric load, customer growth and the impact of competition including competition for retail customers, weather conditions, including storms and drought conditions, and our ability to recover significant storm restoration costs, available sources and costs of, and transportation for, fuels and the creditworthiness and performance of fuel suppliers and transporters, availability of necessary generation capacity and the performance of our generation plants, our ability to recover increases in fuel and other energy costs through regulated or competitive electric rates, our ability to build transmission lines and facilities (including our ability to obtain any necessary regulatory approvals and permits) when needed at acceptable prices and terms and to recover those costs, new legislation, litigation and government regulation, including oversight of nuclear generation, energy commodity trading and new or heightened requirements for reduced emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, carbon, soot or particulate matter and other substances that could impact the continued operation, cost recovery and/or profitability of our generation plants and related assets, evolving public perception of the risks associated with fuels used before, during and after the generation of electricity, including nuclear fuel, a reduction in the federal statutory tax rate could result in an accelerated return of deferred federal income taxes to customers, timing and resolution of pending and future rate cases, negotiations and other regulatory decisions including rate or other recovery of new investments in generation, distribution and transmission service and environmental compliance, resolution of litigation, our ability to constrain operation and maintenance costs, our ability to develop and execute a strategy based on a view regarding prices of electricity and other energy-related commodities, prices and demand for power that we generate and sell at wholesale, changes in technology, particularly with respect to energy storage and new, developing, alternative or distributed sources of generation, our ability to recover through rates or market prices any remaining unrecovered investment in generation units that may be retired before the end of their previously projected useful lives, volatility and changes in markets for capacity and electricity, coal, and other energy-related commodities, particularly changes in the price of natural gas and capacity auction returns, changes in utility regulation and the allocation of costs within regional transmission organizations, including ERCOT, PJM and SPP, the market for generation in Ohio and PJM and the ability to recover investment in Ohio generation assets, our ability to successfully and profitably manage our competitive generation assets including the evaluation and execution of strategic alternatives for these assets as some of the alternatives could result in a loss, changes in the creditworthiness of the counterparties with whom we have contractual arrangements, including participants in the energy trading market, actions of rating agencies, including changes in the ratings of our debt, the impact

  • f volatility in the capital markets on the value of the investments held by our pension, other postretirement benefit plans, captive insurance entity and nuclear

decommissioning trust and the impact of such volatility on future funding requirements, accounting pronouncements periodically issued by accounting standard-setting bodies and other risks and unforeseen events, including wars, the effects of terrorism (including increased security costs), embargoes, cyber security threats and other catastrophic events.

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Fourth Quarter 2016 Highlights

Fourth Quarter 2016 Total Shareholder Return

Refer to appendix for reconciliation between GAAP and Operating EPS

YTD 2016

One Year Three Year Five Year

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2016 Highlights & 2017 Focus

2016 Highlights

Financial Performance

  • Deliver operating earnings within the

guidance range of $3.55 to $3.75 per share

  • Continue focus on disciplined capital

allocation, investing $5.7 billion in cap-ex, substantially in regulated entities with particular emphasis on wires

  • Deliver 5%-7% operating earnings growth rate

with 2017 as the base

Regulatory and Strategic Initiatives

  • Close on sale of certain competitive

generation assets in Q1

  • Complete strategic review of remaining

competitive generation assets

  • Continue Ohio restructuring initiative

2017 Focus

Financial Performance

 Delivered Q4 2016 GAAP earnings of $0.76 and

  • perating earnings of $0.67 per share

 Delivered 2016 GAAP earnings of $1.24 and operating earnings of $3.94 per share  Realized operating EPS growth, successfully offsetting challenges in Ohio competitive generation business  Achieved regulated operating ROE of 10.7% for the year, an increase over the 2015 results of 9.6%  Increased quarterly dividend by 5.4%

Regulatory and Strategic Initiatives

 Reached sale agreement for certain competitive generation assets and launched capital redeployment plan  Resolved competitive asset concerns and implemented regulated business model  Reached global settlement in Ohio, providing closure for considerable number of open proceedings

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Regulated Returns

Twelve Months Ended 12/31/2016 Earned ROEs (non-GAAP Operating Earnings)

Sphere size based on each company’s relative equity balance

Regulated Operations ROE of 10.7%

as of December 31, 2016

OPCo 13.9% APCo 10.3% KPCo 7.5% I&M 11.7% PSO 8.5% SWEPCO 7.4% AEP TX 11.7% Trans 12.1% *

* Transco ROE 11.2%

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4th Quarter 2016 Operating Earnings vs. Prior Year

Refer to appendix for additional explanation of variances by segment

($0.07) $0.03 $0.03

2016 Operating EPS $0.31 $0.15 $0.12 $0.10 ($0.01) $0.67

0.07 0.02 0.03 0.08 (0.01)

$0.48/sh $0.67/sh

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

2015 Actual Vertically Integrated Utilities Transmission & Distribution Utilities AEP Transmission Holdco Generation and Marketing Corporate and Other 2016 Actual

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2016 Operating Earnings vs. Prior Year

Refer to appendix for additional explanation of variances by segment

$0.06 $0.03 $0.03

2016 Operating EPS $2.01 $0.95 $0.54 $0.50 ($0.06) $3.94

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Normalized Retail Load Trends

Note: Charts reflect connected load and exclude firm wholesale load & Buckeye Power backup load.

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Economic Data – AEP Service Territory

Source: Moody’s analytics

estimates estimates estimates

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(unaudited) 12/31/2016 Actual ($ in millions) Amount Maturity Revolving Credit Facility $3,000 June 2021 Revolving Credit Facility $500 June 2018 Total Credit Facilities $3,500 Plus Cash & Cash Equivalents $210 Less Commercial Paper Outstanding (1,040) Letters of Credit Issued

  • Net Available Liquidity

$2,670 Actual Target FFO Interest Coverage 5.8x >3.6x FFO to Total Debt 20.2% 15%-20%

Capitalization & Liquidity

Liquidity Summary Credit Statistics

Note: Credit statistics represent the trailing 12 months as of 12/31/2016

Total Debt / Total Capitalization

Strong balance sheet, credit metrics, and liquidity

Qualified Pension Funding

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SLIDE 11

11 20% Tax Rate Total Regulated Deferred FIT $10.5B Total Potential Excess Regulated Deferred FIT $4.3B Depreciation-related portion of excess (traditionally refunded over life of property) ($3.3B) Non-depreciation portion of excess $1.0B

AEP and Tax Reform

Potential Excess Deferred Taxes

AEP Well-Positioned

  • Low parent debt level ($850M)
  • Operating company debt

recovered through ratemaking

  • Organic cap-ex opportunities to
  • ffset decrease in rate base
  • Few unused tax credits
  • AEP break-even at 22% tax rate

Key Tax Reform Considerations

  • Lower tax rate (20% more likely)
  • Loss of interest deductibility
  • Full expensing of cap-ex

AEP’s Next Steps

  • Work with legislators and industry

peers to protect AEP’s interests including normalization, property tax and interest expense deductions

  • Monitor progress and manage

potential impacts

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Proven track record & 2017 Outlook

Reaffirm 2017 operating earnings guidance of $3.55 - $3.75

Proven track record

 Solid 2016 operating earnings  Strategic capital deployment  Continued O&M discipline  Dividend growth in line with earnings

2017 Outlook

 5%-7% growth rate with 2017 operating earnings guidance range of $3.55-$3.75  Execution of Cap Ex plan  Closure on sale of non-PPA assets

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Appendix

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4th Quarter Reconciliation of GAAP to Operating Earnings

$ millions Earnings Per Share Q4-15 Q4-16 Change Q4-15 Q4-16 Change Reported (GAAP) Earnings $469 $373 ($96) $0.96 $0.76 ($0.20) Non Operating Items: Disposition of Commercial Barging Activities* (239) (6) 233 (0.48) (0.01) 0.47 Mark-to-Market Impact of Commodity Hedging Activities** 3 (4) (7)

  • (0.01)

(0.01) Federal Tax Audit Settlement*

  • (22)

(22)

  • (0.04)

(0.04) UK Windfall Tax*

  • (13)

(13)

  • (0.03)

(0.03) Impairment of Certain Merchant Generation Assets**

  • 2

2

  • AEP Operating Earnings

$233 $330 $97 $0.48 $0.67 $0.19

Weighted average no. of shares outstanding: 491M Q4-15 & 492M Q4-16

* Items recorded in Corporate and Other segment ** Items recorded in Generation and Marketing segment

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YTD December Reconciliation of GAAP to Operating Earnings

$ millions Earnings Per Share YTD-15 YTD-16 Change YTD-15 YTD-16 Change Reported (GAAP) Earnings $2,047 $611 ($1,436) $4.17 $1.24 ($2.93) Non Operating Items: Disposition of Commercial Barging Activities* (239) (1) 238 (0.48)

  • 0.48

Mark-to-Market Impact of Commodity Hedging Activities**

  • (6)

(6)

  • (0.01)

(0.01) Federal Tax Audit Settlement*

  • (77)

(77)

  • (0.15)

(0.15) Capital Loss Valuation Allowance*

  • (34)

(34)

  • (0.07)

(0.07) Capital Loss Valuation Allowance**

  • (10)

(10)

  • (0.02)

(0.02) UK Windfall Tax*

  • (13)

(13)

  • (0.03)

(0.03) Impairment of Certain Merchant Generation Assets**

  • 1,460

1,460

  • 2.97

2.97 Impairment of Certain Merchant Generation Assets***

  • 7

7

  • 0.01

0.01 AEP Operating Earnings $1,808 $1,937 $129 $3.69 $3.94 $0.25

Weighted average no. of shares outstanding: 490M YTD-15 & 491M YTD-16

* Items in Corporate and Other segment ** Items in Generation and Marketing segment *** Items in Vertically Integrated Utilities segment

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Vertically Integrated Utilities

Q4-15 Q4-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $2,013 $2,164 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (718) (779) Operations & Maintenance (686) (776) Depreciation & Amortization (260) (258) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (95) (96) Operating Income 254 255 Net Interest/AFUDC (105) (107) Income Taxes (33) 1 Other 1 2 Operating & GAAP Earnings $117 $151 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.24 $0.31

Fourth Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q4-16 vs. Q4-15

 Rate changes: $12M primarily from increases at APCo, SWEPCo and I&M, partially offset by a decrease at PSO resulting from a fourth quarter rate case order  Weather: $59M favorable vs. prior year; $13M unfavorable vs. normal  Retail load: $14M unfavorable vs. prior year primarily due to decreased residential sales  O&M: $37M unfavorable (net of offsets) vs. prior year primarily due to higher forestry expenses and increased charitable contributions  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of -0.7% Q4-16 vs. 21.9% Q4-15.

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Vertically Integrated Utilities

YTD-15 YTD-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $9,172 $9,092 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (3,413) (3,079) Operations & Maintenance (2,530) (2,703) Depreciation & Amortization (1,063) (1,074) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (383) (391) Operating Income 1,783 1,845 Net Interest/AFUDC (438) (461) Income Taxes (449) (401) Other 1 4 Operating Earnings $897 $987 Proforma Adjustments, Net of Tax

  • (7)

GAAP Earnings $897 $980 EPS from Operating Earnings $1.83 $2.01

YTD EPS Summary Key Drivers: YTD-16 vs. YTD-15

 Rate changes: $114M primarily from increases at SWEPCo, I&M, KPCo and APCo, including recognition of $25 million of deferred WV rate billings in Q2  VA regulatory provision: $23M unfavorable effect from a reversal in 2015  Weather: $29M favorable vs. prior year; $34M favorable vs. normal  Retail load: $22M unfavorable vs. prior year primarily due to decreased residential and industrial sales  Off-System Sales: $19M unfavorable vs. prior year due to lower market prices  O&M: $13M unfavorable (net of offsets) vs. prior year primarily due to increased transmission services expense and charitable contributions  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 28.7% YTD-16 vs. 33.3% YTD-15

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Transmission & Distribution Utilities

Q4-15 Q4-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $1,037 $954 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (194) (175) Amortization of Generation Deferrals (47) 27 Operations & Maintenance (374) (377) Depreciation & Amortization (151) (145) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (116) (121) Operating Income 155 163 Net Interest/AFUDC (62) (53) Income Taxes (29) (33) Operating & GAAP Earnings $64 $77 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.13 $0.15

Fourth Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q4-16 vs. Q4-15

 Rate changes: $37M primarily from Ohio Phase- In Recovery Rider and Distribution Investment Rider and Texas Distribution Cost Recovery Factor  OH Global Settlement: Net Unfavorable $28M resulting from the resolution of a number of

  • utstanding cases

 Weather: $5M favorable vs. prior year; $4M favorable vs. normal  Negligible impact from retail load  ERCOT Transmission Revenue: $10M favorable due to increased transmission investment  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 29.8% Q4-16

  • vs. 31.4% Q4-15.
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Transmission & Distribution Utilities

YTD-15 YTD-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $4,557 $4,422 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (1,114) (837) Amortization of Generation Deferrals (169) (146) Operations & Maintenance (1,330) (1,385) Depreciation & Amortization (686) (650) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (478) (494) Operating Income 780 910 Net Interest/AFUDC (242) (230) Income Taxes (186) (215) Operating & GAAP Earnings $352 $465 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.72 $0.95

YTD EPS Summary Key Drivers: YTD-16 vs. YTD-15

 Rate changes: $73M primarily from Ohio Phase-In Recovery Rider and Distribution Investment Rider and Texas Distribution Cost Recovery Factor  OH Regulatory Provision - $21M favorable due to reversal

  • f provision in Q2

 OH Global Settlement: Net Unfavorable $28M resulting from the resolution of a number of outstanding cases  Weather: $1M unfavorable vs. prior year; $8M favorable

  • vs. normal

 Retail Load: $24M favorable, primarily due to increased Ohio commercial and industrial sales and increased Texas residential sales  ERCOT Transmission Revenue: $36M favorable due to increased transmission investment  O&M: $25M favorable (net of offsets) vs. prior year primarily due to decreased distribution, forestry and transmission expense  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 31.6% YTD-16 vs. 34.5% YTD-15

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AEP Transmission Holdco

Q4-15 Q4-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $85 $130 Operating Expenses: Operations & Maintenance (11) (22) Depreciation & Amortization (13) (19) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (17) (23) Operating Income 44 66 Net Interest/AFUDC 3 (2) Income Taxes (25) (31) Equity Earnings 23 27 Other (1) (1) Operating & GAAP Earnings $44 $59 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.09 $0.12

Fourth Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q4-16 vs. Q4-15

 $22M favorable operating income due to increased revenues and expenses, driven by increased capital investment in the wholly-

  • wned Transcos
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AEP Transmission Holdco

YTD-15 YTD-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $329 $513 Operating Expenses: Operations & Maintenance (38) (55) Depreciation & Amortization (43) (67) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (66) (89) Operating Income 182 302 Net Interest/AFUDC 16 2 Income Taxes (91) (134) Equity Earnings 86 99 Other (2) (3) Operating & GAAP Earnings $191 $266 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.39 $0.54

YTD EPS Summary Key Drivers: YTD-16 vs. YTD-15

 $120M favorable operating income due to increased revenues and expenses, driven by increased capital investment in the wholly-

  • wned Transcos
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Generation & Marketing

Q4-15 Q4-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $610 $687 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (394) (458) Operations & Maintenance (131) (128) Depreciation & Amortization (50) (5) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (10) (9) Operating Income 25 87 Net Interest/AFUDC (8) (8) Income Taxes (8) (32) Operating Earnings 9 47 Proforma Adjustments, Net of Tax (3) 3 GAAP Earnings $6 $50 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.02 $0.10

Fourth Quarter EPS Summary

See slide 14 for items excluded from Net Income to reconcile to Operating Earnings

Key Drivers: Q4-16 vs. Q4-15

 Generation increased 3,208 GWh (50%) Q4-16

  • vs. Q4-15

 AEP Dayton ATC liquidations up 8%: $29.29/MWh in Q4-16 vs. $27.01/MWh in Q4-15  Depreciation: $45M favorable vs. prior year primarily due to decreased depreciation resulting from the Q3 asset impairment and plants held for sale  Retail: $11M favorable due to increased margins and higher volumes  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 39.9% Q4-16

  • vs. 51.3% Q4-15
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Generation & Marketing

YTD-15 YTD-16

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $3,414 $2,976 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (2,165) (1,948) Operations & Maintenance (409) (418) Depreciation & Amortization (201) (155) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (41) (38) Operating Income 598 417 Net Interest/AFUDC (37) (34) Income Taxes (195) (137) Operating Earnings 366 246 Proforma Adjustments, Net of Tax

  • (1,444)

GAAP Earnings (Loss) $366 ($1,198) EPS from Operating Earnings $0.75 $0.50

YTD EPS Summary

See slide 15 for items excluded from Net Income to reconcile to Operating Earnings

Key Drivers: YTD-16 vs. YTD-15

 Generation decreased 1,124 GWh (3%) YTD-16

  • vs. YTD-15, primarily due to 2015 plant

retirements  AEP Dayton ATC liquidations down 12%: $27.84/MWh in 2016 vs. $31.49/MWh in 2015  Generation revenue decreased due to lower capacity revenue primarily in the first half of 2016 due to plant retirements in Q2-15 and transition of Ohio to full market pricing  Depreciation: $45M favorable vs. prior year primarily due to decreased depreciation resulting from the Q3 asset impairment and plants held for sale  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 35.9% YTD-16

  • vs. 34.7% YTD-15
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Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 APCo/WPCo $9 I&M $6 KPCo ($1) PSO ($13) SWEPCO $9 Kingsport $2 TOTAL $12 Impact on EPS

Retail Rate Performance

$0.02 Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 AEP Ohio $24 AEP Texas $13 TOTAL $37 Impact on EPS $0.05

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

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Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 APCo/WPCo $69 I&M $8 KPCo $20 PSO $7 SWEPCO $7 Kingsport $3 TOTAL $114 Impact on EPS

Retail Rate Performance

$0.15 Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 AEP Ohio $56 AEP Texas $17 TOTAL $73 Impact on EPS $0.10

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

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Retail Load* (weather normalized) Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 AEP Ohio

  • 0.6%

AEP Texas 2.8% TOTAL 0.8% Impact on EPS

  • Retail Load*

(weather normalized) Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 APCo/WPCo

  • 0.6%

I&M 0.7% KPCo

  • 1.6%

PSO 3.1% SWEPCO

  • 1.6%

Kingsport

  • 3.3%

TOTAL

  • Impact on EPS

Retail Load Performance

*Excludes Firm Wholesale Load

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.02

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Retail Load* (weather normalized) YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 AEP Ohio

  • 1.0%

AEP Texas 3.1% TOTAL 0.7% Impact on EPS Retail Load* (weather normalized) YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 APCo/WPCo

  • 1.5%

I&M 1.5% KPCo

  • 6.3%

PSO 1.3% SWEPCO

  • 2.1%

Kingsport

  • 3.4%

TOTAL

  • 0.9%

Impact on EPS

Retail Load Performance

*Excludes Firm Wholesale Load

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.03 $0.03

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Weather Impact (in millions) Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 Q4-16 vs. Normal APCo/WPCo $25 ($15) I&M $9 ($1) KPCo $6 ($3) PSO $8 $4 SWEPCO $9 $2 Kingsport $2

  • TOTAL

$59 ($13) Impact on EPS

Weather Impact

Weather Impact (in millions) Q4-16 vs. Q4-15 Q4-16 vs. Normal AEP Ohio

  • AEP Texas

$5 $4 TOTAL $5 $4 Impact on EPS

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.01 $0.02 $0.01 $0.08

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Weather Impact (in millions) YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 YTD-16 vs. Normal APCo/WPCo $14 $14 I&M $9 $6 KPCo $5 $2 PSO $9 $10 SWEPCO ($9) $1 Kingsport $1 $1 TOTAL $29 $34 Impact on EPS

Weather Impact

Weather Impact (in millions) YTD-16 vs. YTD-15 YTD-16 vs. Normal AEP Ohio

  • AEP Texas

($1) $8 TOTAL ($1) $8 Impact on EPS

  • Transmission & Distribution Utilities

Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.01 $0.04 $0.05