2021 General Fund Revenue Forecast June 17, 2020 Leve evels ls - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Livingston County, Michigan

2021 General Fund Revenue Forecast

June 17, 2020

Leve evels ls of B Bud udget t Pr Process ess

Board of Commissioner’s Adopted Budget

Base Projection Department Request Administrator Recommendation Finance Committee

Bas ase Pr Proje jection ction

Due 7/13

• Board of Commissioners’ work session to discuss budget priorities
• June 8
• Revenue Forecast Committee projects 2021 General Fund revenue
• June 17 presentation to Finance Committee
• Capital Improvement requests reviewed
• July 13 Board of Commissioners accepts CIP
• Fiscal Services provides current level personnel costs, internal service costs,

cost allocation charges and target appropriation to GF departments

Fore reca castin ting g Pr Process ess

Identify Major General Fund Revenue Sources Initial Committee Meeting

• Comprised of County Subject Matter Experts (SME) from various County

Departments

Level 1 Revenue Projection

• Developed with input from each of the SME’s as well as other departmental

employees knowledgeable about their department operations

• Enter Revenue Forecast into Level 1 Base projection
• Provide projection of Level 1 Revenue Forecast to Finance Committee

Follow Up Analysis (take place between Level 2 and Level 3)

• Evaluate current activity
• Make adjustments as needed through Level 3

Sy System tem of S State ate & L & Local al Tax ax

Michigan’s system of state & local tax has 61 elements - 38 state and 23 by, or for local, governments. Voter approval required to level new local taxes or increase rate of existing taxes.

Taxes

• Levied to raise revenue for the general operation of government
• Levied to benefit the general public
• Compulsory in nature.

User Fees

• Must serve a regulatory purpose rather than a revenue-raising purpose
• Must be proportionate to the necessary costs of the service or commodity, and imposed on those

benefiting from the right or service improvement supported by the fee

• Voluntary in nature

2020 budgeted amount for Property Taxes: 62% 2020 budgeted amount for User Fees: 11%

As Assesse essed d & T & Tax axab able le Val alue ue

Year Assessed Value 2007 $11,095,355,398 2008 $10,587,493,440 2009 $9,791,590,126 2010 $8,811,797,115 2020 $12,449,140,248 Year Taxable Value 2007 $8,793,696,047 2008 $8,825,751,150 2009 $8,572,600,661 2010 $7,953,592,697 2020 $9,806,507,325

There is a 27% difference between 2020’s Assessed and Taxable Values

As Assesse essed d Vs. Tax axab able le Val alue ue

Source: e: Equaliza alizati tion

• n

$7,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $9,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $11,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $13,000,000,000

Assessed Value Taxable Value

Coun unty ty Mil illa lages

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Expires General Operating 3.3897 3.3890 3.3700 3.3484 3.3283 3.3073 3.2765 Allocated EMS 0.3000 0.2999 0.2982 0.2962 0.2944 0.2925 0.2897 12/2030 Veterans Services 0.0500 0.0500

• 0.1190

0.1127 0.1127 0.1127 12/2021

20 2020 20 Inf nfla lati tion

• n Ra

Rate te Mul ulti tipl plier ier

Month & Year CPI - Index Month & Year CPI - Index October 2018 252.885 October 2019 257.346 November 2018 252.038 November 2019 257.208 December 2018 251.233 December 2019 256.974 January 2019 251.712 January 2020 257.971 February 2019 252.776 February 2020 258.678 March 2019 254.202 March 2020 258.115 April 2019 255.548 April 2020 256.389 May 2019 256.092 May 2020 256.394 June 2019 256.143 June 2020 July 2019 256.571 July 2020 August 2019 256.558 August 2020 September 2019 256.759 September 2020 Average 254.376 257.384

Ratio: 1.016% % Change: 1.6%

His isto torica rical l Reve evenu nues es & E & Expe pens nses es

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revised 2021 Projected 2022 Projected Revenues $47,840,540 $46,432,921 $45,250,257 $43,237,150 $41,404,406 $40,330,696 $40,813,095 $41,124,261 $42,511,594 $43,485,252 $44,613,541 $48,408,147 $48,528,773 $50,913,886 $49,130,711 $49,418,897 Expenses $46,126,146 $44,816,588 $42,619,585 $40,915,515 $40,389,246 $40,038,145 $39,557,263 $41,423,523 $39,861,374 $43,262,955 $43,271,823 $52,914,410 $46,038,839 $50,913,886 Fund Balance $15,652,065 $17,268,398 $19,899,070 $22,220,705 $23,235,865 $23,528,416 $24,784,248 $24,502,986 $27,153,206 $27,484,512 $28,826,230 $24,319,967 $26,809,901 $26,809,901 Fund Balance +/- $1,616,333 $2,630,672 $2,321,635 $1,015,160 $292,551 $1,255,832 ($281,262) $2,650,220 $331,306 $1,341,718 ($4,506,263 $2,489,934 $0

$10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000 $45,000,000 $50,000,000 $55,000,000

20 2021 1 Pr Proje jecte cted d Reve evenu nue e So Sour urce ces

2021 Level 1 Projected

$31,731,000 $371,195 $400,600 $5,608,136 $2,121,710 $565,000 $2,918,191 $49,500 $5,191,779 $25,000 $142,600

$49,130,711 Category Total: TAXES 63% FINES & FORFEITURES LICENSE & PERMITS CHARGES FOR SERVICE 13% RENTAL INCOME INTEREST OTHER REVENUE FEDERAL SOURCES STATE SOURCES 11% CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL TRANSFERS IN

TAXES FINES & FORFEITURES LICENSE & PERMITS CHARGES FOR SERVICE RENTAL INCOME INTEREST OTHER REVENUE FEDERAL SOURCES STATE SOURCES CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL TRANSFERS IN

20 2022 22 Pr Projecte jected d Reve evenu nue So Sour urce ces

2022 Projected Revenue

$31,649,000 $359,195 $405,600 $5,732,767 $2,122,465 $565,000 $3,175,991 $49,500 $5,191,779 $25,000 $142,600

$49,418,897 Category Total: TAXES 64% FINES & FORFEITURES LICENSE & PERMITS CHARGES FOR SERVICE 12% RENTAL INCOME INTEREST OTHER REVENUE FEDERAL SOURCES STATE SOURCES 11% CONT FROM LOCAL UNIT TRANSFERS IN

TAXES FINES & FORFEITURES LICENSE & PERMITS CHARGES FOR SERVICE RENTAL INCOME INTEREST OTHER REVENUE FEDERAL SOURCES STATE SOURCES CONT FROM LOCAL UNIT TRANSFERS IN

Reve evenu nues s At At A Gl A Glan ance

$5.2 $6.1 $5.6 $5.19 $5.19 $4.9 $5.1 $5.3 $5.5 $5.7 $5.9 $6.1 2018 2019 2020 Revised 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $29.5 $30.7 $31.7 $31.73 $31.65 $28.0 $28.5 $29.0 $29.5 $30.0 $30.5 $31.0 $31.5 $32.0 2018 2019 2020 Revised 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $2.7 $3.5 $3.3 $2.92 $3.18 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 2018 2019 2020 Revised 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $1.7 $2.2 $2.0 $2.12 $2.12 $1.2 $1.4 $1.6 $1.8 $2.0 $2.2 2018 2019 2020 Revised 2021 Projected 2022 Projected

6.1%

(2021 compared to 2020)

• 7%

STATE SOURCES 0%

(2021 compared to 2020)

TAXES

(2021 compared to 2020)

RENTAL INCOME OTHER REVENUE

• 12.2%

(2021 compared to 2020)

Tax ax Bas ase

Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020 Actual 2021 Projected 9.60% 9.50% 9.70% 9.80% 9.60% 2.40% 2.50% 2.70% 2.70% 2.80% 80.30% 80.40% 81.00% 80.80% 80.90% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 2.10% 2.10% 6.20% 6.10% 5.10% 4.60% 4.60%

Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

Tax ax Bas ase (Com

• mpar

pared ed to St State te Aver erage) e) Source

ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2020 Actual 2021 Projected 2020 State Average 9.50% 9.70% 9.80% 9.60% 14.30% 2.50% 2.70% 2.70% 2.80% 4.10% 80.40% 81.00% 80.80% 80.90% 70.10% 1.50% 1.50% 2.10% 2.10% 5.30% 6.10% 5.10% 4.60% 4.60% 6.20%

Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

New Cons nstructio truction

Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n Number of Permits

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Projected 2021 Projected

Other Permits New Housing Permits

State ate Eq Equa uali lize zed d Val alue ue

Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n Percent of Change

• 25%
• 15%
• 5%

5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Projected 2021 Projected

Agricultral Commercial Industrial Residential Personal Property

Pr Proper perty ty Tax ax Fore recas ast

Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer

Amount Changed % Changed

2017 Property Tax Revenue $28,121,029

• 2018 Property Tax Revenue

$29,199,547 $1,078,518 3.84% 2019 Property Tax Revenue $30,549,738 $1,350,191 4.62% 2020 Projected Tax Revenue $31,582,000 $1,032,262 3.38% 2021 Projected Tax Revenue $31,582,000

• Year

Property Tax Revenue

2007 $29,085,262 2008 $29,025,853 2009 $28,436,646 2010 $26,682,237 2011 $25,524,601 2012 $24,970,423 2013 $25,198,624 2014 $25,808,425 2015 $26,885,973 2016 $27,264,652 2017 $28,121,029 2018 $29,200,000 2019 $30,549,738 2020 Est. $31,582,000 2021 Est. $31,582,000 $24 $25 $26 $27 $28 $29 $30 $31 $32 $33 Millions

Cap apture tured d Val alue ues

Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer

DDA'S, TIFA'S AND LDFA'S

Year Taxable Value Revenue Captured

2010 $185,444,159 $510,056 2011 $230,798,883 $465,389 2012 $215,284,090 $450,600 2013 $191,001,836 $411,677 2014 $185,854,230 $390,532 2015 $206,763,006 $416,633 2016 $170,554,109 $339,284 2017 $150,443,548 $309,435 2018 $156,353,780 $327,464 2019 $151,875,850 $349,631

Int nteres rest t Inc ncome me

Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer

General Fund Investment Interest 2004 $484,449 2005 $824,831 2006 $1,110,976 2007 $1,177,210 2008 $808,201 2009 $337,996 2010 $115,320 2011 $81,991 2012 $60,037 2013 $53,162 2014 $89,778 2015 $182,679 2016 $256,348 2017 $340,585 2018 $620,654 2019 $666,752 2020 Budgeted $550,000 2021 Budgeted $550,000

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000

Tax ax Deli linq nque uenc ncy

Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer

Year Tax Adjusted Levy Total Delinquency Del Rate 2007 $282,769,925 $22,191,000 7.85% 2008 $276,848,463 $25,068,000 9.05% 2009 $273,169,009 $21,921,946 8.03% 2010 $256,436,642 $18,197,235 7.10% 2011 $247,875,955 $16,054,617 6.48% 2012 $247,012,311 $13,098,939 5.30% 2013 $249,657,258 $11,399,487 4.57% 2014 $253,300,901 $9,494,116 3.75% 2015 $261,356,891 $8,506,775 3.25% 2016 $274,575,236 $8,323,469 3.03% 2017 $281,711,692 $8,014,462 2.84% 2018 $293,778,703 $8,306,552 2.83% 2019 $311,367,616 $8,704,373 2.79%

One of the lowest delinquency rates in Michigan.

Reve evenu nue Sh Shar arin ing

Sour urce ce: St State te of MI Treas reasur ury

$2,563,336 $2,297,584 $3,580,449 $3,122,844 $3,153,639 $3,171,660 $3,214,387 $3,023,000 $2,700,000 $2,997,785 $3,078,725 $1,429,811

$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Projected 2021 Projected

State Share Reserve Fund

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Year ar En End F d Fore reclo closures sures

Sour urce ce: Re Regis gister ter of Deeds ds

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 # of Foreclosed Properties 1029 1333 1219 1309 1132 728 455 261 203 147 123 78 62 35 % of Redeemed Properties 5% 4% 5% 9% 10% 12% 13% 8% 12% 17% 31% 52% 41% N/A

Redeemed Properties

2018 2000 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

85 616 1,219 1,309 1,132 728 455 261 203 147 123 78

2019

62

2020 Projected

35

Regis ister ter of Deeds ds Reve evenu nue

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Budgeted 2021 Projected 2022 Projected Tract Index

$17,303.15 $17,169.73 $13,946.64 $15,000.00 $10,569.24 $7,210 $5,750 $5,750

County Transfer Tax

$1,129,594.95 $1,315,216.40 $1,308,852.05 $1,130,000.00 $1,485,488.30 $1,233,300 $1,350,000 $1,390,000

Charges for Service

$740,012.65 $813,609.78 $905,074.44 $925,000.00 $894,982.29 $820,537 $800,000 $825,000

Computer Usage

$196,149.50 $215,927.75 $193,996.75 $190,000.00 $194,626.00 $170,057 $175,000 $180,250

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Budgeted 2021 Projected 2022 Projected

Tract Index County Transfer Tax Charges for Service Online Services

Comb mbin ined ed Cour urt t Reve evenu nue

Coun unty ty Cle lerk Reve evenu nue – Vit ital al Records ds

$0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 Budgeted 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $132,897 $159,232 $168,826 $212,000 $202,500 $202,500

Coun unty ty Cle lerk – Cir ircu cuit it Cour urt t Reve evenu nue

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 Budgeted 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $429,181 $474,531 $521,898 $434,450 $435,250 $415,250

Coun unty ty Cle lerk – El Electi tions

• ns Reve

evenu nue

$0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 Budgeted 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $40,494 $74,800 $46,875 $170,900 $11,150 $53,525

Sheri riff f Field eld Servi vices ces – General al Fund Rev evenue ue

$176,007 $200,158 $198,859 $238,681 $247,031 $250,840 $243,001 $249,381 $256,628 $265,934 $173,833 $156,327 $133,746 $130,869 $300,470 $299,219 $308,452 $179,500 $171,600 $171,600 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Budget 2021 Projected 2022 Projected

Township Contracts Other Than Township Contracts

Sheri riff f Ja Jail l Servi vices ces – General al Fund Reve evenue

$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Budget 2021 Projected 2022 Projected $690,543 $624,879 $661,931 $712,058 $863,138 $759,196 $1,032,820 $1,664,200 $694,500 $694,500 $0 $199,902 $748,103 $1,617,438 $1,649,377 $1,806,257 $1,949,034 $1,752,256 $1,866,525 $1,866,525

Excluding Marshal Rev. Marshal Rev. (Rent & Transp)

14 11 14 1111 21 25 23232224 27 293031 41 55 52 4848 54545656 52535151 46 52 494950 45 40 484951 55 49 51 58 55 61 59 48 515050 5353 504850 53 44 53 61 7069 5657 5352 4545 60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

MONTHLY ADP for FEDERAL INMATES (Rounded to nearest whole number)

Sh Sherif riff f Ja Jail l Se Services vices – Gene neral al Fun und d Rev evenue nue

Drai ain n – Total al *SES

ESC C Reven Revenue ue & Perm rmit its s Per r Year ar

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 P e r m i t s I s s u e d R e v e n u e

SESC Total Revenue by Year SESC Total Permits Issued by Year

*Soil Erosion Sedimentation Control

Drai ain n – Wag ages & F & Fri ring nges s Payb Paybac ack

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Projection

Crew W & F Reimb Admin W & F Reimb

Total al Reve evenu nue Impa pact

GF Revenue Source 2019 Actuals 2020 Revised 2021 Projected % Change 2022 Projected Taxes $30,710,422 $31,732,869 $31,731,000 0.00% $31,649,000 Fines & Forfeitures $372,181 $373,395 $377,195 1.00% $359,195 License & Permits $474,562 $473,600 $400,600

• 15.40%

$405,600 Charges For Service $6,326,171 $5,598,707 $5,608,136 0.20% $5,732,767 Rental Income $2,194,949 $1,999,901 $2,121,710 6.10% $2,122,465 Interest $765,636 $617,688 $565,000

• 8.50%

$565,000 Other Revenue $3,461,266 $3,324,818 $2,918,191

• 12.20%

$3,175,991 Federal Sources $51,501 $47,500 $49,500 4.20% $49,500 State Sources $6,089,908 $5,581,222 $5,191,779

• 7.00%

$5,191,779 Contributions From Local Units $14,074 $25,000 $25,000 0.00% $25,000 Capital Grants/ Contributions $12,399 $0 $0 0.00% $0 Gain on Sale of Fixed Assets $0 $0 $0 0.00% $0 Transfers In $560,756 $1,139,186 $142,600

• 87.50%

$142,600 TOTAL GENERAL FUND $51,033,824 $50,913,886 $49,130,711

• 3.50%

$49,418,897

Reve evenu nue Comm mmittee ittee

• Kate Lawrence – County Commissioner, Vice

Board Chair, Finance Chair

• Carol Griffith – County Commissioner, Board

Chair

• Brandon Denby – Register of Deeds
• Jennifer Nash – Treasurer
• Mike Murphy – Sheriff
• Elizabeth Hundley – County Clerk
• Cindy Catanach – Acting County

Administrator / Financial Officer

• Hilery DeHate – Acting Financial Officer /

Financial Analyst

• Jeff Warder – Undersheriff
• Kristen Landis – Financial Analyst/ Sheriff’s

Office

• Melissa Scharrer – Friend of the Court
• Sue Bostwick – Equalization
• Elizabeth Hundley – County Clerk
• Kristi Cox – Chief Deputy County Clerk
• Roberta Sacharski – Trial Court

Administrator

• Heather McCray-Germain – Court

Financial Officer

• Aaron Everest – Drain
• Allison Nalepa – Communication

Specialist