2021 General Fund Revenue Forecast June 17, 2020 Leve evels ls - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Livingston County, Michigan 2021 General Fund Revenue Forecast June 17, 2020

Leve evels ls of B Bud udget t Pr Process ess Administrator Base Projection Department Request Finance Committee Recommendation Board of Commissioner’s Adopted Budget

Bas ase Pr Proje jection ction • Board of Commissioners’ work session to discuss budget priorities • June 8 • Revenue Forecast Committee projects 2021 General Fund revenue • June 17 presentation to Finance Committee • Capital Improvement requests reviewed • July 13 Board of Commissioners accepts CIP • Fiscal Services provides current level personnel costs, internal service costs, cost allocation charges and target appropriation to GF departments Due 7/13

Fore reca castin ting g Pr Process ess Identify Major General Fund Revenue Sources Initial Committee Meeting • Comprised of County Subject Matter Experts (SME) from various County Departments Level 1 Revenue Projection • Developed with input from each of the SME’s as well as other departmental employees knowledgeable about their department operations • Enter Revenue Forecast into Level 1 Base projection • Provide projection of Level 1 Revenue Forecast to Finance Committee Follow Up Analysis (take place between Level 2 and Level 3) • Evaluate current activity • Make adjustments as needed through Level 3

Sy System tem of S State ate & L & Local al Tax ax Michigan’s system of state & local tax has 61 elements - 38 state and 23 by, or for local, governments. Voter approval required to level new local taxes or increase rate of existing taxes. Taxes • Levied to raise revenue for the general operation of government • Levied to benefit the general public • Compulsory in nature. User Fees • Must serve a regulatory purpose rather than a revenue-raising purpose • Must be proportionate to the necessary costs of the service or commodity, and imposed on those benefiting from the right or service improvement supported by the fee • Voluntary in nature 2020 budgeted amount for Property Taxes: 62% 2020 budgeted amount for User Fees: 11%

As Assesse essed d & T & Tax axab able le Val alue ue Year Assessed Value Year Taxable Value 2007 $11,095,355,398 2007 $8,793,696,047 2008 $10,587,493,440 2008 $8,825,751,150 2009 $9,791,590,126 2009 $8,572,600,661 2010 $8,811,797,115 2010 $7,953,592,697 2020 2020 $9,806,507,325 $12,449,140,248 There is a 27% difference between 2020’s Assessed and Taxable Values

As Assesse essed d Vs. Tax axab able le Val alue ue Source: e: Equaliza alizati tion on $13,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $11,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $9,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $7,000,000,000 Assessed Value Taxable Value

Coun unty ty Mil illa lages 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Expires General 3.3897 3.3890 3.3700 3.3484 3.3283 3.3073 3.2765 Allocated Operating EMS 0.3000 0.2999 0.2982 0.2962 0.2944 0.2925 0.2897 12/2030 Veterans 0.0500 0.0500 - 0.1190 0.1127 0.1127 0.1127 12/2021 Services

20 2020 20 Inf nfla lati tion on Ra Rate te Mul ulti tipl plier ier Month & Year CPI - Index Month & Year CPI - Index October 2018 252.885 October 2019 257.346 November 2018 252.038 November 2019 257.208 December 2018 251.233 December 2019 256.974 January 2019 251.712 January 2020 257.971 February 2019 252.776 February 2020 258.678 March 2019 254.202 March 2020 258.115 April 2019 255.548 April 2020 256.389 May 2019 256.092 May 2020 256.394 June 2019 256.143 June 2020 July 2019 256.571 July 2020 August 2019 256.558 August 2020 September 2019 256.759 September 2020 Average 254.376 257.384 Ratio: 1.016% % Change: 1.6%

His isto torica rical l Reve evenu nues es & E & Expe pens nses es $55,000,000 $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 2020 2021 2022 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revised Projected Projected Revenues $47,840,540 $46,432,921 $45,250,257 $43,237,150 $41,404,406 $40,330,696 $40,813,095 $41,124,261 $42,511,594 $43,485,252 $44,613,541 $48,408,147 $48,528,773 $50,913,886 $49,130,711 $49,418,897 Expenses $46,126,146 $44,816,588 $42,619,585 $40,915,515 $40,389,246 $40,038,145 $39,557,263 $41,423,523 $39,861,374 $43,262,955 $43,271,823 $52,914,410 $46,038,839 $50,913,886 Fund Balance $15,652,065 $17,268,398 $19,899,070 $22,220,705 $23,235,865 $23,528,416 $24,784,248 $24,502,986 $27,153,206 $27,484,512 $28,826,230 $24,319,967 $26,809,901 $26,809,901 Fund Balance +/- $1,616,333 $2,630,672 $2,321,635 $1,015,160 $292,551 $1,255,832 ($281,262) $2,650,220 $331,306 $1,341,718 ($4,506,263 $2,489,934 $0

20 2021 1 Pr Proje jecte cted d Reve evenu nue e So Sour urce ces OTHER REVENUE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL 2021 Level 1 Projected Category FEDERAL SOURCES TRANSFERS IN INTEREST $31,731,000 TAXES RENTAL $371,195 STATE SOURCES FINES & FORFEITURES INCOME 11% $400,600 LICENSE & PERMITS $5,608,136 CHARGES FOR SERVICE CHARGES TAXES $2,121,710 FOR SERVICE RENTAL INCOME 63% 13% $565,000 INTEREST $2,918,191 OTHER REVENUE $49,500 FEDERAL SOURCES LICENSE & $5,191,779 PERMITS STATE SOURCES CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL FINES & $25,000 FORFEITURES TRANSFERS IN $142,600 Total: $49,130,711

20 2022 22 Pr Projecte jected d Reve evenu nue So Sour urce ces FEDERAL SOURCES CONT FROM LOCAL UNIT TRANSFERS IN 2022 Projected Revenue OTHER REVENUE Category $31,649,000 TAXES INTEREST STATE $359,195 FINES & FORFEITURES SOURCES RENTAL $405,600 11% INCOME LICENSE & PERMITS $5,732,767 CHARGES FOR CHARGES FOR SERVICE TAXES SERVICE 64% $2,122,465 RENTAL INCOME 12% $565,000 INTEREST $3,175,991 OTHER REVENUE $49,500 FEDERAL SOURCES LICENSE & PERMITS $5,191,779 STATE SOURCES FINES & CONT FROM LOCAL UNIT $25,000 FORFEITURES TRANSFERS IN $142,600 Total: $49,418,897

Reve evenu nues s At At A Gl A Glan ance TAXES STATE SOURCES $31.73 $6.1 $32.0 $31.7 $31.65 $6.1 $31.5 $5.9 $31.0 $30.7 $5.7 $5.6 0% $30.5 $30.0 $5.5 (2021 $29.5 -7% compared $29.5 $5.3 $5.2 $5.19 $5.19 to 2020) $29.0 (2021 $5.1 compared $28.5 to 2020) $4.9 $28.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revised Projected Projected Revised Projected Projected OTHER REVENUE RENTAL INCOME $2.2 $3.5 $2.2 $3.3 $3.5 $2.12 $2.12 $3.18 $2.92 $2.0 $3.0 $2.7 $2.0 $2.5 $1.8 $1.7 $2.0 6.1% $1.5 -12.2% $1.6 (2021 compared $1.0 (2021 $1.4 to 2020) compared $0.5 to 2020) $1.2 $0.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revised Projected Projected Revised Projected Projected

Tax ax Bas ase Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n 4.60% 4.60% 5.10% 6.20% 6.10% 100% 1.50% 2.10% 2.10% 1.50% 1.50% 90% 80% 70% 60% 81.00% 80.80% 80.90% 80.40% 80.30% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2.70% 2.70% 2.80% 2.40% 2.50% 10% 9.60% 9.50% 9.70% 9.80% 9.60% 0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 Actual 2021 Projected Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

Tax ax Bas ase (Com ompar pared ed to St State te Aver erage) e) Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n 4.60% 4.60% 5.10% 100% 6.10% 6.20% 2.10% 2.10% 1.50% 1.50% 5.30% 90% 80% 70% 60% 70.10% 81.00% 80.80% 80.90% 80.40% 50% 40% 30% 20% 4.10% 2.70% 2.70% 2.80% 2.50% 10% 14.30% 9.50% 9.70% 9.80% 9.60% 0% 2018 2019 2020 Actual 2021 Projected 2020 State Average Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

New Cons nstructio truction Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n 4,000 3,500 3,000 Number of Permits 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Projected Projected Other Permits New Housing Permits

State ate Eq Equa uali lize zed d Val alue ue Source ce: Equali aliza zatio tion n 75% 65% 55% 45% Percent of Change 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Projected Projected Agricultral Commercial Industrial Residential Personal Property

Pr Proper perty ty Tax ax Fore recas ast Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer Year Property Tax Revenue $33 Millions 2007 $29,085,262 $32 2008 $29,025,853 $31 2009 $28,436,646 $30 2010 $26,682,237 2011 $25,524,601 $29 2012 $24,970,423 $28 2013 $25,198,624 $27 2014 $25,808,425 $26 2015 $26,885,973 $25 2016 $27,264,652 2017 $28,121,029 $24 2018 $29,200,000 2019 $30,549,738 2020 Est. $31,582,000 2021 Est. $31,582,000 Amount % Changed Changed 2017 Property Tax Revenue $28,121,029 - - 2018 Property Tax Revenue $29,199,547 $1,078,518 3.84% 2019 Property Tax Revenue $30,549,738 $1,350,191 4.62% 2020 Projected Tax Revenue $31,582,000 $1,032,262 3.38% 2021 Projected Tax Revenue $31,582,000 - -

Cap apture tured d Val alue ues Sour urce: e: Treasu reasurer rer DDA'S, TIFA'S AND LDFA'S Year Taxable Value Revenue Captured 2010 $185,444,159 $510,056 2011 $230,798,883 $465,389 2012 $215,284,090 $450,600 2013 $191,001,836 $411,677 2014 $185,854,230 $390,532 2015 $206,763,006 $416,633 2016 $170,554,109 $339,284 2017 $150,443,548 $309,435 2018 $156,353,780 $327,464 2019 $151,875,850 $349,631