2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
2019 economic outlook
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 01, 2023 358 likes •758 views

2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West The Sacramento Sierra Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Presents 2019 Economic Forecast Crowne Plaza Sacramento, CA January 25, 2019 Let The Trade War

slide-1
SLIDE 1

2019 Economic Outlook

Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West The Sacramento Sierra Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Presents 2019 Economic Forecast Crowne Plaza Sacramento, CA January 25, 2019

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Let The Trade War Begin!!!!!

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Global Economy Losing Momentum

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Forecasting Deceleration in 2019

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Positive U.S. Economic Surprises Fading

5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

U.S. Labor Market Tight – How Much Tighter Can It Get?

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

20 Million Net New Jobs Created And Still Counting

7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Job Growth Will Slow in 2019

8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Unemployment Rate Starts to Rise By Q4 2019

9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Consumers Keep Spending

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Real Earnings Growth Not Keeping Pace

11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Slowdown in Consumer Spending Forecast

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

No Investment Spending Boom Visible in the Data

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Housing Cycle Has Peaked in the U.S. and California

14

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Home Price Growth Moderates

15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since 2007

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Q2 Bounce Expected to be Peak U.S. Growth

17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

What’s In Store for Interest Rates? Jerome Powell Takes the Reigns

18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Will Fed Rate Hikes Continue?

19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Is the Next Move a Rate Hike or a Rate Cut?

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Prices for Most Commodities are Already Plunging

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Bond Market Inflation Expectations Have Moved Lower

22

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Interest Rate Outlook – Only Modest Increase From Here

23

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Can We Win a Trade War With China?

24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

The Economic Cost Of Trade War Escalation

25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

U.S. Equities Prices – Could They Fall Further?

26

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Corporate Credit Spreads Start to Rise from Historically Low Levels

27

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Is Sacramento Outperforming?

28

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Sacramento Job Growth Lagging Behind

29

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Bay Area and Stockton Lead the Way

30

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Sacramento Had a Good Month in December

31

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Government and Health Care Driving Job Creation in Sacramento

32

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Leaders And Laggards

33

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Sacramento Already Above Full-Employment

34

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Homebuilding Has Seen an Anemic Recovery This Cycle

35

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Sacramento Home Prices Steady

36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Solid Housing Activity Could Continue For Awhile

37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Disclosures: The preceding presentation is for educational purposes only. The discussions and information contained within the presentation should not be construed or used as a specific recommendation for the investment of assets of any customer of Bank of the West

  • r its affiliates and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any security or financial instrument,

nor does the information constitute advice or an expression of the Bank’s view as to whether a particular security or financial instrument is appropriate for you and meets your financial objectives. Economic and market forecasts reflect subjective judgments and assumptions, and unexpected events may occur. Therefore, there can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Please consult with your financial advisor prior to making investment decisions. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Bank of the West Wealth Management Group offers products and services through Bank of the West and its various affiliates and

  • subsidiaries. Bank of the West is a wholly owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas.
slide-39
SLIDE 39

Scott Anderson - Bank of the West

Executive Vice President Chief Economist San Francisco, CA Scott.Anderson@bankofthewest.com

bankofthewest.com

THANK YOU