2017 Economic Forum CALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2017 Economic Forum

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2

Calhoun County Economy Forum

• National Update (Slides 3-15)
• State of Alabama Update (Slides 16-43)
• Calhoun County Update (Slides 44-115)

GDP % Change from Preceding Period for U.S. 1st Qtr 2014 – 4th Qtr 2016

• 1.2%

4.6% 5.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 3.5% 1.9%

• 2%
• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2014q1 2015q1 2016q1

3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Real $ Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates

1.9% 4th Qtr 2016

U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2015 – Dec 2016

106 106 105 105 105 104 105 103 104 105 104 104 103 104 105 106 107 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

4

Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System

+.66% 12 Months

Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment for U.S. Jan 2014-Jan 2017 in 1,000s

168 310 331 84 295 168 24 271 135 227 100 200 300 400 500 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Payroll Emp in 1,000s

Jan 17 Pre +227,000

5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally Adjusted

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Feb 2014–Feb 2017

16,322 18,133 16,466 17,930 20,841 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17

6

Source: NY Stock Exchange

+29.98% 12 Months

Consumer Price Index U.S. Jan 2014-Dec 2016

235.4 237.8 235.2 238.1 237.8 239.9 243.0 230 235 240 245 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

7

+2.1% 12 Months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2014 – Jan 2017

81 82 87 94 96 91 87 91 93 89 95 91 98 99 75 85 95 105 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

8

Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research

Last 12 Months +7.06%

Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services in U.S. Jan 2014-Dec 2016 in $ Bill

419 436 438 447 450 458 469 $410 $430 $450 $470 $490 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 In $Billions

9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+3.62% 12 Months

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Jan 2014-Dec 2016

168 170 170 172 179 179 181 184 188 188 190 165 175 185 195 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

10

Source: Standard and Poor’s

+5.50% 12 Months

Labor Force U.S. 2006-2016 in Millions

152 153 154 154 154 154 155 155 156 157 159 146 148 150 152 154 156 158 160 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Millions

11

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Labor Force U.S. Jan – Dec 2016 in Millions

158.4 158.9 159.3 158.9 158.5 158.9 159.3 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.5 159.6 157.8 158.3 158.8 159.3 159.8 160.3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

12

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+1,278,000 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

13

Employment U.S. 2006-2016 in Millions

136 138 137 131 130 132 134 136 139 142 144 125 130 135 140 145 150 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Millions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Employment U.S. Jan – Dec 2016 in Millions

143 144 144 144 144 144 144 145 145 145 145 145 142 143 144 145 146

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

14

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+1,989,000 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate U.S. Jan 2016 - Jan 2017

15

4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3%

Jan-16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-17

% Unemployed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

• .41%

from 2015

16

State of Alabama Economy

• Population
• Labor Force
• Employment
• Unemployment
• Tax Revenues

Population Estimates State of Alabama 2006-2016 in Millions

4.63 4.67 4.72 4.76 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.85 4.86 4.86 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Millions

17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

GDP % Change from Preceding Year for State of AL Vs U.S. 2006 - 2015

5.8% 4.5% 1.6%

• 2.1%

3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 3.3% 4.2% 3.7% 4.9% 3.3% 1.6% 2.5% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 US AL

18

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

GDP % Change from Previous Quarter State of AL Vs U.S. 2nd Qtr 2015-3rd Qtr 2016

4.9% 3.2% 1.8% 1.3% 3.7% 5.0% 3.2% 3.9% 0.5% 2.6% 3.3% 4.5% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 15Q1-Q2 15Q2-Q3 15Q3-Q4 15Q4-16Q1 16Q1-Q2 16Q2-Q3 US AL

19

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

Labor Force State of Alabama 2006-2016 in Millions

2.17 2.17 2.17 2.16 2.19 2.20 2.17 2.15 2.15 2.14 2.18 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Millions

20

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Labor Force State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2016 in Millions

2.15 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

21

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

22

Employment State of Alabama 2006-2016 in Millions

2.08 2.09 2.05 1.92 1.96 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.05 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Millions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Employment State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2016 in Millions

2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.05 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

23

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+46,513 for 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate State of AL Jan - Dec 2015 vs 2016

24

6.0% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.4% 5.7% 6.2% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% Unemployed 2015 2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

• 0.06% from 2015

Unemployment Rate AL vs U.S. Jan - Dec 2016

25

6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.9% 6.2% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% Unemployed AL U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims State of Alabama 2015 vs 2016

8,000 10,500 13,000 15,500 18,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Claims per Month 2015 2016

26

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

• 5.29% 12 Months

27

KY 4.8% TN 4.9% MS 5.6% NC 5.1% SC 4.3% FL 4.9% AL 6.2%

Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2016

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 5.4%

Source: AL Dept of Labor

Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average for U.S. South Region 2006-2016 in Thousands

1259 1204 1027 711 743 795 882 961 1067 1154 1201 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

28

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Movers Study by United Van Lines 2016

29

High Inbound Balanced High Outbound

Source: United Van Lines 2016 Movers Study

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL Monthly % Change Jan to Dec 2015 vs 2016

• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% Change

+2.68% Total

30

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+4.17% Sales +4.57% Incomes

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions FYTD 15-16 vs FYTD 16-17

31

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jan

In $ Millions FYTD 15-16 FYTD 16-17 % Change

Individual Income Tax

$1,134 $1,193 +5.19%

Sales Tax

$761 $776 +1.99%

Total

$2,384 $2,519 +5.35%

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions Jan 2016 vs Jan 2017

32

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

In $ Millions

Jan 2016 Jan 2017

% Change

Individual Income Tax

$236.93 $265.99 +12.3%

Sales Tax

$206.75 $205.31

• .70%

Total

$839.59 $872.60 +4.54%

33

Housing Statistics State of AL 2015 vs 2016 2015 2016

% Change

Median Price

$133,991 $141,442 +5.6%

Avg Days on Market

149 142

• 4.2%

Total Homes Sold

49,877 53,759 +7.8%

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

34

• State Survey – 1st Quarter 2017
• Approximately 192 respondents
• Operated by University of Alabama Center for

Business and Economic Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

35

0.0% 6.8% 31.3% 54.2% 7.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Much Worse Worse Remain the Same Better Much Better % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Economic Outlook for Alabama Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016

36

57.6 54.8 51.2 53.0 55.1 52.4 52.6 62.7 50 55 60 65

Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17

Index Value

Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

% Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +19.2% % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +18.3%

Hiring Outlook for Alabama Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016

3.1% 10.4% 43.2% 39.6% 3.6% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

37

57.0 54.2 51.7 53.9 54.9 49.9 51.9 57.6 49 54 59

Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17

Index Value

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17

38

% Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +10.9% % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +6.8%

Sales Outlook for Alabama Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016

2.6% 13.0% 20.8% 55.2% 8.3% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

39

60.5 57.1 54.0 55.1 57.9 54.3 54.9 63.4 52 57 62 67

Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17

Index Value

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Sales Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17

40

% Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +15.4% % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +15.1%

1.6% 13.5% 39.1% 41.1% 4.7% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

41

Capital Expenditures Outlook Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016

55.2 53.6 51.5 52.8 53.0 55.1 52.0 58.5 50 55 60

Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17

Index Value

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

42

Capital Expenditures Outlook Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17

% Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +12.5% % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +10.8%

State of Alabama Summary

• Population Census Up
• State GDP Up (2015 2.17%, 2016 est June 17)
• Labor Force Up (+48,505 2016)
• Employment Up (+35,314 2016)
• Unemployment Rate Down (5.9% Dec)
• Housing Up (+7.8% Homes Sold 2015-2016)
• 1st Qtr State Confidence Index (Up Sharply)

43

Calhoun County Economy

44

Calhoun County Economy

45

• Membership Survey (45-68)
• Employment (69-87)
• County and Municipal Tax Collections (88-101)
• Tourism & Housing (102-108)
• Economic Development Center (109-114)

Membership Survey of Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce 2016

• Ten years of data from Membership
• Results for seven questions
• First chart shows last years results
• Second chart shows this years results
• Third chart shows average for 10 years
• Index value = sum of item values multiplied by response %

/ # options

46

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook Last Year (Feb 2016)

47

20% 32% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Worse About Same Better

Feb 2016 Index .74

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

48

0% 11% 22% 46% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better

Feb 2017 Index .82

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook This Year (Feb 2017)

49

.76 .58 .56 .77 .84 .77 .82 .87 .74 .82 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook 2008-2017

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

50

Q#2: Employment Outlook Last Year (Feb 2016)

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

14% 59% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Cutback # Emp Remain Same Expand # Emp

Feb 2016 Index .71

51

Q#2: Employment Outlook This Year (Feb 2017)

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 7% 45% 41% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Major Cutback # Emp Slight Cutback # Emp Remain Same Slight Increase # Emp Major Increase # Emp

Feb 2016 Index .69

52

.76 .63 .65 .70 .74 .72 .75 .76 .71 .69 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#2: Employment Outlook 2008-2017

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

53

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation Last Year (Feb 2016)

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

1% 51% 48% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Decrease Leave Unchanged Increase

Feb 2016 Index .82

54

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Feb 2016)

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 5% 28% 64% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Feb 2016 Index .73

55

.83 .61 .73 .61 .70 .65 .74 .83 .82 .73 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation 2008-2017

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

56

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services Last Year (Feb 2016)

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

15% 41% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Decrease Unchanged Increase

Feb 2016 Index .76

57

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services This Year (Feb 2017)

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 5% 26% 55% 14% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Feb 2017 Index .76

58

.81 .70 .55 .75 .78 .77 .80 .88 .76 .76 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services 2008-2017

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#5: New Product Offerings Last Year (Feb 2016)

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

59

5% 48% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Decrease Unchanged Increase

Feb 2016 Index .81

Q#5: New Product Offerings This Year (Feb 2017)

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

60

0% 2% 43% 41% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Feb 2017 Index .74

.74 .69 .65 .69 .71 .71 .76 .82 .81 .74 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#5: New Product Offerings 2008-2017

61

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets Last Year (Feb 2016)

62

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

8% 77% 15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Decrease Unchanged Increase

Feb 2016 Index .69

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets This Year (Feb 2017)

63

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 1% 81% 16% 2% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Feb 2017 Index .63

.51 .56 .48 .41 .47 .48 .52 .70 .69 .64 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets 2008-2017

64

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

16% 60% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Cutback # Emp Remain Same Expand # Emp

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising Last Year (Feb 2016)

65

Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Feb 2016 Index .69

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising This Year (Feb 2017)

66

Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

1% 7% 48% 36% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Feb 2017 Index .68

.68 .54 .57 .58 .62 .64 .61 .73 .69 .68 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Index Value

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising 2008-2017

67

Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

68

Membership Survey: Largest Response Category by % 2016

• Overall Outlook– Slightly Better 46%
• Number of Employees – No Change 45%
• Employee Pay – Slight Increase 64%
• Demand for Products – Slightly Better 55%
• New Products – No Change 43%
• Number of Outlets – No Change 81%
• Advertising Spending – No Change 48%

Population Trends Calhoun County 2004-2015 in Thousands

112 112 113 113 113 114 119 118 117 117 116 115 110 112 114 116 118 120 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In Thousands

69

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2014 - 115,916 2015 – 115,620

GDP % Change from Preceding Year for Calhoun County Vs AL 2006 - 2015

4.5% 6.9% 2.5%

• 3.6%

2.9%

• 0.6% -1.6% -2.6%

1.2% 1.8% 4.6% 3.2% 2.0%

• 2.5%

4.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%

• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Calhoun AL

70

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

Labor Force Calhoun County 2007- 2016 in Thousands

53.5 51.9 49.0 49.1 48.0 47.5 46.2 46.7 46.4 46.3 45 47 49 51 53 55 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

71

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• .22% 2015-2016

Labor Force Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2016 in Thousands

45.8 46.2 46.2 46.0 46.3 46.7 46.2 46.4 46.2 46.8 46.6 46.2 45.0 45.5 46.0 46.5 47.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In Thousands

72

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+467 for 12 Months

73

Employment for Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands

51.1 50.3 47.4 46.5 46.1 45.4 43.9 43.7 43.1 43.3 42 45 47 50 52 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

.5% 2015-2016

Employment Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2016 in Thousands

42.6 42.9 43.0 43.2 43.3 43.3 43.3 43.5 43.3 43.7 43.7 43.2 42.0 42.5 43.0 43.5 44.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In Thousands

74

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+626 for 12 Months

Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2007-2016

75

3.5% 5.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.2% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 % Unemployed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2016

76

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

7.0% 7.2% 7.0% 6.1% 6.5% 7.3% 6.4% 6.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.2% 6.6% 5% 6% 7% 8% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Unemployed

Not Seasonally Adjusted

77

Unemployment Rate

6.8% and Below 6.9% - 8.3% 8.4% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

6.5%

Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2015 State Ave – 5.9%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

78

Unemployment Rate

6.1% and Below 6.2% - 7.4% 7.5% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

6.6%

Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2016 State Ave – 5.9%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Employment State Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Dec 16

• 2%
• 19%

14%

• 1%
• 6%
• 9% -5%
• 5%

5%

• 2%
• 1%

12%

• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc

79

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment % Change AL & AL MSAs Dec 15- Dec 16

1.7% 0.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 0% 5% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc

80

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

81

Federal Employment for Calhoun County 2003-2015 in Thousands

4.1 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.7 4.0 3 4 5 6 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

82

Manufacturing Sector Employment Calhoun County 2003-2016 in Thousands

8.3 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.9 4 5 6 7 8 9 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

83

Service Sector for Calhoun County 2003-2016 in Thousands

40 41 42 43 44 44 42 42 42 41 40 40 39 40 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week State of Alabama 2007-2016

36.6 36.0 34.8 35.1 35.3 36.0 36.1 35.5 35.5 35.6 34 35 36 37 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Hours Worked per Week

84

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week State of Alabama Jan - Dec 2016

35.5 35.6 35.5 35.6 35.9 35.7 35.6 35.4 35.6 36.0 35.4 35.4 35.0 35.5 36.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Hours Worked per Week

85

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

$19.4 $19.6 $19.7 $19.9 $20.1 $20.2 $20.2 $20.7 $21.0 $21.8 $18 $19 $20 $21 $22 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 $ per Hour

86

Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for State of Alabama 2007 - 2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+3.8% 12 Months

Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for State of Alabama Jan - Dec 2016

$21.64 $21.60 $21.43 $21.83 $21.90 $21.80 $21.97 $21.79 $21.86 $22.22 $21.98 $21.90 $21 $22 $22 $23

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ per Hour

87

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+1.2% 12 Months

State Sales Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions

$21.40 $25.24 $28.00 $29.12 $31.19 $31.02 $30.50 $20 $23 $25 $28 $30 $33 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

88

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

• 1.66% Fiscal Yr

State Use Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions

$1.10 $1.08 $1.08 $0.93 $1.19 $1.12 $0.84 $0.8 $0.9 $1.0 $1.1 $1.2 $1.3 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

89

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

• 24.6% Fiscal Yr

State Lodging Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY09-10 – FY15-16 in $ Thousands

$778.4 $824.5 $771.6 $847.1 $883.6 $915.1 $1,022.8 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Thousands

90

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+11.77% Fiscal Yr

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Anniston in $ Millions

$17.3 $17.1 $17.5 $19.0 $21.2 $20.8 $20.6 $22.0 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

91

Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%)

+6.81% 15-16 FY

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax FYTD Oct15-Jan16 vs Oct16-Jan17 Anniston in $ Millions

92

Source: City of Anniston

$7.27 $5.87 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0 Oct15-Jan16 Oct16-Jan17 In $ Millions

• 19.2% FYTD 16-17

Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Oxford in $ Millions

$22.6 $24.3 $24.5 $25.3 $25.5 $26.6 $28.4 $30.7 $18 $21 $23 $26 $28 $31 $33 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

93

+8.09% 15-16 FY

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

Sales & Use Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Oxford in $ Millions

$7.01 $7.49 $6.0 $6.5 $7.0 $7.5 Oct-Dec15 Oct-Dec16 In $ Millions

94

Source: City of Oxford

+6.8% 2016 FYTD

Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Jacksonville in $ Millions

$5.3 $5.3 $5.5 $6.5 $6.8 $7.0 $7.0 $7.3 $4.5 $5.5 $6.5 $7.5 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

95

Source: City of Jacksonville

3.82% 15-16 FY

Sales & Use Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Jacksonville in $ Millions

$1.909 $1.919 $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 Oct-Dec15 Oct-Dec16 In $Millions

96

+0.5% 2016 FYTD

Source: City of Jacksonville

Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY08-09 - FY15-16 Ohatchee in $ Thousands

$481 $444 $534 $489 $550 $545 $571 $549 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Thousands

97

Source: City of Ohatchee

• 3.8% 15-16 FY

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY15-16 Piedmont in $ Millions

$1.37 $1.36 $1.45 $1.46 $1.46 $1.75 $1.89 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

98

Source: City of Piedmont

+8.1% 15-16 FY *

*1% tax increase Jan 1, 2015

*

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Piedmont in $ Thousands

$473 $458 $350 $400 $450 $500 Oct15-Dec15 Oct16-Dec16 In $ Thousands

99

Source: City of Piedmont

• 3.19% 2016 FYTD

Sales, Use Tax Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Weaver in $ Thousands

$223 $245 $234 $289 $343 $444 $571 $555 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Thousands

100

Source: City of Weaver

• 2.87% 15-16 FY

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Weaver in $ Thousands

$133.58 $89.74 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 Oct15-Dec15 Oct16-Dec16 In $ Thousands

101

Source: City of Weaver

• 33% 2016 FYTD

Tourism Economic Impact State of Alabama

• Est over 25 Million visitors each year
• $12.7 Billion in 2015
• Represent 6.2% of State GDP
• Est 175,652 jobs (9% of non agricultural)
• Generated $797 Million State and Local Tax

Revenues

102

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Tourism Expenditures in AL 2003- 2015 in $ Billions

$6.8 $7.4 $7.5 $8.5 $9.3 $9.6 $9.3 $9.1 $10.2$10.7$11.0$11.8 $12.7 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Billions

103

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up 86% over 13 years

Tourism Impact in Calhoun County Jobs & Earnings 13-15

885 891 933 800 850 900 950 1,000 13 14 15 Jobs $20.9 $21.8 $23.4 $18 $20 $23 $25 13 14 15 Earnings in Millions

104

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up 4.7% 14-15 Up 7.3% 14-15

Number of Bankruptcy Cases Calhoun County: 2010-2016

835 864 775 552 516 415 484 461 300 500 700 900 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 # of Bankruptcy Cases

• 4.7% from 2015

105

Source: U.S. Courts

Percentage Change in Bankruptcy Cases Calhoun County/AL/US 2011-2016

• 10%

17%

• 11%
• 3%
• 7%

2% 2%

• 11%
• 12%
• 13%
• 6%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Calhoun AL US

106

Source: U.S. Courts

107

Housing Statistics Calhoun County 2015 vs 2016 2015 2016

% Change

Median Price

$105,152 $121,063 +15%

Avg Days on Market

129 134 +3.88%

Total Homes Sold

1,395 1,510 +8.24%

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

108

122 114 109 88 76 81 80 82 90 102 116 126 60 75 90 105 120 135 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Home Sales/Month

Average Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County 2005-2016

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

98.87 Avg - -

Calhoun County Economic Development Council

New & Expanding Industries 2016

109

• 75 new jobs
• $2.5 million

investment

110

• $362 million expansion
• 160 new employees

111

112

• $2.5 million investment
• 15 new jobs

113

• 14 new employees
• $26 million investment

114

2012-2016 $600 million in new investment Over 2000 new jobs!

Calhoun County

Near Atlanta, Near Birmingham – Near Perfect

115

Calhoun County: Economic Summary

• Membership Survey- Positive “Slightly Better”
• Population- Estimated Down Slightly
• Employment- +626 Jan-Dec 2016
• Unemployment- Dec 15 – 6.5%, Dec 16 - 6.6%
• Municipal Revenues- Mainly Up
• Housing Market- Up 8.24% Total Homes Sold
• Tourism Revenues- Lodging Taxes +11.77%