2016 Half-Year Results 24 August 2016 Forward looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2016 Half-Year Results

24 August 2016

Ernest Henry copper mine, Australia

Forward looking statements This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy. By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Glencore’s Annual Report 2015. Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as

• f the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the

Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date. No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.

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Highlights

Ivan Glasenberg – Chief Executive Officer

New wheelhouse, Synclinorium shaft, Mopani, Zambia

Solid H1 performance in difficult market conditions

• Strong cash generation despite lower commodity prices and production
• EBITDA(1,2) $4bn, -13%; industrial EBITDA $2.7bn, -20%; marketing EBIT(2) $1.2bn, +14%
• Solid cash flow generation with FFO of $2.8bn
• Capex of $1.6bn, -51%
• Industry-leading cost positions
• Outstanding first-half operational unit cost performance in key commodities; Copper 97c/lb,

Zinc -3c/lb (15c/lb ex gold), Nickel 246c/lb and Thermal coal $37/t

• Marketing remains a unique, low-risk defensive earnings driver
• Adjusted EBIT up 14% to $1.2bn
• Full year guidance unchanged at $2.4-2.7bn
• Continued strong liquidity and balance sheet flexibility
• Committed available liquidity of c.$15bn
• Public market credit spreads and CDS substantially normalised
• Targeting even lower Net Funding and Net Debt of $31-32bn and $16.5-17.5bn

respectively by the end of 2016

• $2.3bn reduction in Net funding and Net debt to $39bn and $23.6bn respectively at 30 June
• Agreed asset disposals of $3.9bn, successfully delivering towards $4-5bn target; opportunity

to be selective around remaining sales processes

• Annualised free cash flow generation >$4.5bn(3) at current spot prices

4

Note: (1) Refer to basis of preparation on page 4 of 2016 Half-Year Report. (2) Refer to note 3 of the financial statements for definition and reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA/EBIT. (3) After estimated taxes and interest of $2.2bn, estimated industrial capex of $3.5bn and $0.1bn of marketing capex, pre the impact of any asset disposal processes yet to be completed, basis spot annualised EBITDA of c.$10.5bn as calculated in reference to note 2 on slide 18. Excludes working capital changes.

Sustainability and governance

5

Safety

• Regrettably 12 fatalities from 4 incidents YTD
• All fatalities at our “focus assets”
• LTIFR 1.28, 4% improvement
• TRIFR 4.79, 5% improvement
• Continued effort on ensuring leading practice

at our “Focus Assets”

Environment

• Global tailings storage facility review under

way

Governance

• Analysis of implications of climate change on
• ur portfolio published, with a particular focus
• n the coal business
• Publication of our payments to host

governments underscores our commitment to transparency

2.74 2.49 2.06 1.88 1.58 1.32 1.28 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1

LTIFR(1) 2010 to June 2016

53% reduction

Note: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. In the past Glencore recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next calendar day after the incident whilst Xstrata recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next rostered day after the incident - therefore the combined LTI figure is not based on data of consistent definition (historically, prior to merger). From 2014 Glencore records LTIs when an incident results in lost days from the first rostered day absent after the day of the injury. The day of the injury is not included. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013). Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements.

Financial performance

Steven Kalmin – Chief Financial Officer

Altyntau-Vostok, Precious Metals refinery, Kazzinc

Summary

Solid H1 2016 performance in difficult market conditions ...

• EBITDA of $4bn, down 13%; EBIT $875M, down 38%
• Marketing EBIT of $1.2bn, up 14%
• Net income pre-exceptional items $300M(1), down 66%
• Industrial capex of $1.5bn, down 51%
• Funds from operations of $2.8bn, down 21%

… underpinned by industry-leading cost performance …

• Significant declines in H1 unit operating costs compared to FY2015: Copper 97c/lb, Zinc -3c/lb

(15c/lb ex gold credit), Nickel 246c/lb and Thermal coal $37/t

… and our unique balance sheet flexibility

• Net funding of $39bn, down $2.3bn (5%)
• Net debt of $23.6, down $2.3bn (9%)
• Committed liquidity of c.$15bn

Focussed on preserving our investment grade ratings

• Moodys and S&P ratings currently at Baa3/BBB- with stable outlooks
• Targeting upgrade to strong Baa/BBB rating in the medium term
• Delivery of revised Net funding and Net debt targets by end 2016 ensures high probability that

Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA falls closer to 2x

• pro-forma ratio comfortably <2x basis debt reduction targets and relevant Adjusted EBITDA at spot prices

7

(1) Attributable loss to equity holders pre-significant items of $369M; refer to significant items table on page 5 of 2016 Half-Year Report.

Solid marketing EBIT performance of $1.2bn

8

Marketing EBIT contribution, up 14%, reflecting some normalisation of trading conditions that impacted H1 2015.

• Metals and minerals
• Strong performance, up 92% y/y driven by

strong contributions from copper and zinc as well as improved earnings from aluminium and nickel relative to the impact that lower premiums and weak stainless production had on the prior period

• Energy
• Weaker year-on-year performance reflects

particularly supportive oil market conditions seen in H1 2015, along with a continued challenging coal market backdrop

• Agriculture
• Weaker earnings in large part due to a

lower Viterra Canada contribution. Seasonally, H2 much better for Viterra Canada and Australia, which is again expected to be the case

444 852 479 252 199 122 2015 H1 2016 H1 Metals and Minerals Energy Products Agricultural Products Corp and Other

Adjusted Marketing EBIT ($M)

1,071 1,217

+14%

Marketing is a unique, low-risk defensive earnings driver

9

Historical guidance range: $2-3bn

Marketing EBIT ($M)

Long-term guidance range: $2.7-3.7bn

299 295 342 283 227 153 Interest expense allocation ($M)

• H1 2016 EBIT performance reflects the

strength and resilience of the business model

• Marketing earnings are generated from the

handling, blending, distribution and

• ptimisation of physical commodities,

augmented by arbitrage opportunities – all of which are less sensitive to flat price movements

• Highly cash flow generative business

– Minimal fixed assets/capex required – Relatively low effective tax rate

• Unchanged 2016E EBIT guidance

range of $2.4 to $2.7bn

• Working capital’s correlation with

commodity prices ensures cash flow is insulated in periods of lower prices

• Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $36M in

H1 2016, represents less than 0.1% of shareholders’ equity ($41M H1 2015)

1'000 2'000 3'000 4'000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

H2 Guidance $1.2-1.5bn H1: $1.2bn

Robust industrial performance underpinned by lower costs

10

Industrial EBITDA down 20%, reflecting the impact of lower commodity prices, substantially mitigated by lower costs and favourable FX movements

• Metals and minerals
• Significant operating cost reductions along

with favourable FX, mostly offset the impact of lower prices, leaving EBITDA largely unchanged year-on-year. EBITDA mining margin increased from 24% to 28%

• Energy
• Substantially lower oil and coal prices

weighed on EBITDA, partially mitigated by cost savings, efficiencies and FX

• Agriculture
• Softer earnings reflect difficult EU oilseed

processing and biodiesel margin conditions

2'436 2'365 1'140 571 71 29 2015 H1 2016 H1 Metals and Minerals Energy Products Agricultural Products Corp and Other

Adjusted Industrial EBITDA ($M)

3,431 2,735

• 20%

Cost savings and favourable FX significantly mitigated the impact of lower commodity prices

11

3'431 (2049) 252 720 (203) 634 (50) 2'735 2015 H1 EBITDA Price Volume Cost Inflation FX Other 2016 H1 EBITDA Higher grades and strong performance at Antapaccay, Alumbrera. Increased cobalt production at Mutanda Lower fuel/energy costs, operational efficiencies / restructuring,

• verall

procurement initiatives / benefits South Africa, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Colombia KZT +86%, ZAR +29%, AUD +6%, ARS +63% COP +26% CAD +8%

2016 H1

• 66% of negative price

impact offset by real cost reductions and favourable FX movements Next 12 months

• Continued focus on

maximising free cash flow generation Industrial Adjusted EBITDA ($M)

Strong first-half operational performance and industry-leading cost positions

12

104 97 96 2016 FY Guidance 2016 H1 Actual 2016 FY Revised

Copper costs (c/lb)(1,5) Nickel costs (c/lb)(3,7) Zinc costs (c/lb)(2,6) Thermal Coal costs ($/t)(4,8)

295 246 273 2016 FY Guidance 2016 H1 Actual 2016 FY Revised 39 37 39 45 2016 FY Guidance 2016 H1 Actual 2016 FY Revised Average H1 2016 LME 393.2 c/lb Average H1 2016 LME 213.5c/lb Average H1 2016 LME 81.7 c/lb Average NEWC H1 2016 ($51/t) adjusted for portfolio mix

• Significant reduction in cost structures over the first half of

the year, underpinned by higher by-product credits and delivery of additional cost efficiencies/savings

• Full year unit cost estimates revised lower again to reflect

stronger than expected cost improvements year to date

• Continued focus on cost efficiencies/reduction over the

balance of 2016

H1 2016 Cu C1 costs (c/lb)(1) Mutanda 105 Collahuasi 118 Antamina 38 Alumbrera 73 Lomas Bayas 127 Antapaccay 80 Nth Queensland 130 Cobar 128 C1 Weighted average: 91 C1 Including royalties 97 C1 Ex TC/RCs / freight / Royalties: 70

Notes (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) - see slide 23

27

• 3
• 3

2016 FY Guidance 2016 H1 Actual 2016 FY Revised 15 ex gold 18 ex gold

2016 Half-year credit metrics

13

13H1 13FY 14H1 14FY 15H1 15FY 16H1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.9

Net funding(1)

($bn)

Net debt(1)

($bn)

FFO to Net debt Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA

28% 29% 29% 33% 30% 26% 25% 34.8 35.8 37.6 30.5 29.6 25.9 23.6 49.2 52.2 54.4 49.8 47.3 41.2 39.0

• Strong liquidity position with $14.9bn
• f committed available liquidity at end

June

• Comfortably covers next 3 years’ bond

maturities

• Healthy cashflow coverage ratios:
• FFO to Net debt of 24.9%
• Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 2.91x
• Improving credit market conditions
• Public market credit spreads and CDS

substantially normalised

• Issued 5 year CHF 250M bond at 2.25% in

May

• Finalised new RCF of $7.7bn in May
• Net funding and Net debt targets by

end 2016 ensure high probability that Net debt to Adj. EBITDA falls closer to 2x

• Achievement of strong BBB/Baa in the

medium term remains a financial target

• No financial covenants

Note: (1) Refer to page 7 of 2016 Half-Year Report.

Capex more than halved in H1 2016

14

1'864 1'048 2'700 1'205 452 800

2015 H1 2016 H1 2016 E Sustaining Expansionary

• H1 2016 industrial capex of $1.5bn,

down 51%

• Full year 2016 industrial capex

guidance unchanged at $3.5bn

• First-half capex reflects:
• Reduced spending profile, in line with

limited expansion projects underway

• Lower sustaining capex in line with

proactive supply reductions in copper, zinc, lead, coal and oil

• FX support from the stronger US dollar and

achievement of overall group procurement benefits

• Post-2016 capex remains dependent
• n price and associated incentive to

reactivate certain latent capacities

• Sustainable group capex of $2.7bn at

current production levels

Industrial capex ($M)(1)

Note: (1) Total industrial capex including JV capex and capitalised interest, excluding Marketing capex of $71M in H1 2016 and $120M in H1 2015.

• 51%

3,069 1,500 3,500

GRail

Sale process underway on potential sale of Glencore’s Hunter Valley coal haulage fleet

• expected completion Q4 2016, subject to regulatory approvals

Ernest Henry (EHM)

Joint Venture with Evolution Mining where Evolution will have a 30% economic stake in the mine and be entitled to 100% of EHM gold production, subject to an agreed life of mine and block model. Evolution will pay AUD880 million to Glencore upon closing of the transaction as well as ongoing monthly cash contributions equal to 30% of production and capital costs associated with copper concentrates – expected completion Q4 2016

$3.9bn of the $4-5bn asset disposals target delivered to date –

• pportunity to be selective around remaining processes

15

Glencore Agri

Agreed sale of 49.99% of Glencore Agri to Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC) for combined proceeds of $3.125bn

• expected completion Q4 2016, subject to regulatory approvals

Komarovskoye gold

Sale of the Komarovskoye gold deposit in Kazakhstan to Polymetal for $100M cash and deferred consideration of up to $80M – completed 2 August 2016

Vasilkovskoye gold

Process underway exploring options around sale or streaming

Dec.15 Net reduction Jun.16 Agri proportionate consolidation Asset disposals Working capital Free Cash Flow (annualised spot for six months) Dec.16 E Dec.17 E RMI reduced by $0.9bn primarily to reflect Agri sale(2,3) Increase to reflect impact

• f higher

prices

Targeting lower Net funding and Net debt by end 2016

16

• Continued progress on delivery
• f our debt reduction measures

/ targets

• 2016 Net funding and Net debt

targets reduced further to $31-32bn and c.$16.5-17.5bn respectively reflecting:

• proportionate vs full consolidation of

Glencore Agri (lowers Net funding, RMI and Net debt by $1.7b, $1bn and $0.7bn respectively)

• forecast higher free cash flow

generation in H2 at current spot prices

• less one-off build in working capital to

reflect higher prices

• We remain focused on

preserving our current investment grade credit ratings and returning to strong BBB/Baa in the not too distant future Debt bridge ($bn)

Net funding $41.3 Net funding $39.0 Net funding $31-32bn $4-5 c.$2.3 $1.7(2,3)



$2.3 Net debt $23.6 Net debt $16.5-17.5bn RMI $15.4 RMI c.$15bn Net debt $25.9 RMI $15.4 RMI $14.5 Net debt c.$15

Note: (1) 2016 H1 RMI comprises $10.9 billion (2015: $10.9 billion) of inventories carried at fair value less costs of disposal and $4.5 billion (2015: $4.4 billion) of inventories carried at the lower of cost or net realisable value. Refer to Glossary on page 69 of the 2016 Half-Year Report. (2) Refer to Glossary on page 71 of the 2016 Half-year Report; Glencore Agri Net funding and Net debt already accounted for within discontinued operations at 30 June 2016. (3) See slide 21

c.$3.9bn agreed to date Realised on sale completion: forecast Q4 Net funding <$30bn Net debt $25.9bn RMI $15.4(1) Net debt $23.6bn RMI $15.4(1) c.$1.0

Concluding remarks

Ivan Glasenberg – Chief Executive Officer

Copper anode, Mount Isa Mines copper smelter, Australia

Focussed and confident on delivering our debt reduction plan

We are highly cash generative at current spot prices …

• Annualised free cash flow generation >$4.5bn(1) at current spot prices
• Annualised spot price EBITDA of c$10.5bn(2)

... supported by Tier 1 cost positions in our key commodities …

• 2016 full year unit cost guidance revised to(3): 96c/lb Copper, -3c/lb Zinc (18c/lb ex gold),

273c/lb Nickel and $39/t Thermal coal

… and the resilience of our marketing business

• Earnings largely underpinned by logistics activities/services that are less sensitive to prices
• Forecast H2 marketing Adjusted EBIT of $1.2-1.5bn

Targeting lower 2016 Net funding and Net debt of $31-32bn and $16.5-17.5bn

• Asset disposals target now largely achieved – opportunity to be selective on remaining active

disposal processes

We possess significant growth optionality for the right market conditions

• Our production cuts have preserved the value of our resources for the future
• Our low-cost latent capacity includes: 300kt of copper, 500kt of Zinc, 100kt of lead and 15Mt
• f thermal coal

18

Note: (1) After estimated taxes and interest of $2.2bn, estimated industrial capex of $3.5bn and $0.1bn of marketing capex, pre the impact of any asset disposal processes yet to be completed. Excludes working capital changes. (2) Basis 2016 FY Revised industrial unit costs/margins on slide 12 and associated 2016 FY volumes as noted in slide 23; mid-point of marketing guidance on slide 9 plus $200M of marketing D&A, pre the impact of any asset disposal processes yet to be

• completed. Prices as of 18 August 2016. (3) Relative to original 2016FY guidance in March 1 2015 Preliminary Results presentation on slide 12.

Q&A

Copper scrap recycling, Horne smelter, Canada

Appendix

Raglan wind power generation, Nickel, Canada

Glencore Agri accounting treatment

• Agreed sale of 49.99% of Glencore Agri to Canada Pension Plan Investment

Board and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation

• Negotiated governance structure will result in the statutory accounting

deconsolidation of Glencore Agri on close of sale

• In respect of our ongoing ownership stake of 50.01%, and for as long as we hold >35%,

Glencore Agri meets the definition of a joint arrangement, classified as a joint venture as determined under IFRS 11 and accounted for using the equity method in accordance with IAS 28

• Post sell-down, it is currently expected that Glencore’s financial reporting
• f Glencore Agri will be consistent with the treatment of our interests in

Cerrejón, Antamina and Collahuasi

• i.e. equity accounting for statutory reporting and proportionate consolidation for Financial

Review / segment reporting to provide an enhanced understanding of underlying financial performance and position

21

Commodity prices

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan.16 Mar.16 May.16 Jul.16 Copper Zinc Nickel 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Dec.15 Nov.16 Oct.17 Sep.18 Aug.19 Jul.20 Jul 2016 Jun 2016 May 2016 Apr 2016 Mar 2016 Feb 2016 Jan 2016 Dec 2016

22

Indexed: January 2016=100

API4 thermal coal curves Indexed base metal prices YTD

Data: Bloomberg, ICAP

Notes

Slide 12: Strong first-half operational performance and industry-leading cost positions

• (1) 2016 H1 copper unit cost calculated on department production of 624.4kt (not including c.79kt additional copper produced as by-

product in the zinc and nickel divisions) less 21.3kt produced at Mopani. 2016 FY copper unit cost calculated on guided mid-point of department production of 1.26kt less c.45kt forecast production at Mopani (excluding c.150kt of forecast copper production as by- product in the zinc and nickel divisions). Costs include TC/RCs, freight, royalties and a credit for custom metallurgical EBITDA

• (2) 2016 H1 zinc unit cost calculated on department production of 484.7kt (not including c.22kt of zinc produced as a by-product in
• ther divisions) adjusted for c.85% payability, resulting in payable production of 412kt. 2016 FY zinc unit cost calculated on forecast

department production of 1.03Mt (excludes c.65kt of zinc produced as by-product by other divisions) adjusted for 85% payability, resulting in payable production of 876kt. Zinc cost includes credit to account for custom metallurgical EBITDA

• (3) 2016 H1 nickel unit cost calculated on production of 51.5kt, excluding Koniambo. 2016 FY nickel unit cost calculated on forecast

production of 100kt, excluding Koniambo

• (4) Average NEWC H1 2016 price of $51/t adjusted for portfolio mix (-$6/t) to generate a margin that can be applied across overall

group ex-mine sales of 65Mt. 2016 FY coal unit cost calculated basis current spot NEWC price of $68/t adjusted for portfolio mix (-$11/t) to generate an annualised spot margin that can be applied across overall forecast group production of 125Mt (i.e. $18/t margin)

• (5) Reconciling actual H1 copper unit costs to H1 Adjusted Copper EBITDA of $1.344bn:
• Add back $130M for Katanga and Mopani (primarily operating costs incurred at Katanga, with production currently suspended, pending delivery of the whole ore

leach upgrade project) and $80M for inventory changes to give underlying EBITDA of $1.554bn.

• Divide underlying EBITDA of $1.554bn by H1 production of 603.1kt (see Note 1 above) to give EBITDA/lb of $117c/lb.
• LME average price of $214c/lb over H1 2016 less EBITDA/lb of 117c/lb = cost per pound of c.$97c/lb
• (6) Reconciling actual H1 zinc unit costs (including gold credits) to H1 Adjusted Zinc EBITDA of $770M:
• Divide Adjusted Zinc EBITDA of $770M by H1 payable metal production of 412kt (see Note 2 above) to give EBITDA/lb of c.$85c/lb
• LME average price of $81.7c/lb over H1 2016 less EBITDA/lb of $85c/lb = cost per pound of c.-$3c/lb. Add back Kazzinc gold credit of 18c/lb to give zinc mine

unit costs of 15c/lb

• (7) Reconciling actual H1 nickel unit costs to H1 Adjusted Nickel EBITDA of $168M:
• Divide Adjusted Nickel EBITDA of $168M by H1 metal production of 51.5kt (see Note 3 above) to give EBITDA/lb of c.$147c/lb
• LME average price of $393c/lb over H1 2016 less EBITDA/lb of $147c/lb = cost per pound of c.$246c/lb
• (8) Reconciling actual H1 margin to H1 Adjusted Coal EBITDA of $506M:
• Divide Total Coal EBITDA of $506M by H1 ex-mine sales of 65Mt to give EBITDA/t of $8/t
• NEWC average price of $51/t over H1 2016 adjusted to $45 /t to reflect portfolio mix less EBITDA/t of $8/t = cost per tonne of $37/t

23

2016 Production Guidance

Commodity Unit Actual FY 2014 Actual FY 2015 Actual H1 2016 Guidance FY 2016 Copper kt 1,546 1,502 703 1,410 ± 25 Zinc kt 1,387 1,445 507 1,095 ± 25 Lead kt 308 298 145 285 ± 10 Nickel kt 101 96 57 116 ± 4 Ferrochrome kt 1,295 1,462 762 1,575 ± 25 Coal Mt 146 132 59 125 ± 3 Oil kbbl 7,351 10,569 4,350 8,000 ± 300

24

Changes to previous guidance (1 March 2016) reflect:  Copper: +20kt to 1,410kt (± 25kt) – strong YTD performances across a number of assets, including Collahuasi  Coal: -5mt to 125mt (± 3Mt) – lower South African output and weather related reductions in Colombia  Oil: -200kbbl to 8,000kbbl (± 300kbbl) – reduced workover activity in Chad, basis current lower margins, and the wish to preserve the resource for an improved pricing environment