2015 OUTLOOK Q1 2015 21 May 2015 Copenhagen CONTENTS Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2015 OUTLOOK Q1 2015 21 May 2015 Copenhagen CONTENTS Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 06, 2023 203 likes •350 views

1 DFDS RAISES 2015 OUTLOOK Q1 2015 21 May 2015 Copenhagen CONTENTS Overview Q1 2015 Outlook 2015 MGO transition Channel judgment Capital structure and distribution Strategy, goals and priorities The statements

slide-1
SLIDE 1

DFDS RAISES 2015 OUTLOOK

Q1 2015

21 May 2015

1

Copenhagen

slide-2
SLIDE 2

CONTENTS

2

  • Overview
  • Q1 2015
  • Outlook 2015
  • MGO transition
  • Channel judgment
  • Capital structure and distribution
  • Strategy, goals and priorities

The statements about the future in this announcement contain an element of risk and uncertainty, both in general and specific terms, and this means that actual developments may diverge considerably from the statements about the future. 2

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SLIDE 3

OUTLOOK RAISED FOLLOWING STRONG QUARTER AND GROWTH ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

3

  • Operating profit (EBITDA) up by 150% from DKK 91m to DKK 228m
  • Profit improved by volume growth and efficiency gains
  • Shipping revenue up by 6% adjusted for route closures in 2014
  • Scrubber investments contributed to a smooth transition to new

environment-friendly emission rules

  • ROIC LTM* before special items increased to 9.0% (FY 2014: 8.0%)
  • EBITDA outlook for 2015 raised to DKK 1.65-1.75bn (DKK 1.55-1.65bn)

3

* Last twelwe months

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SLIDE 4

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 DKK m

DFDS Group - EBITDA before special items

2013 2014 2015

36 52 68 189

  • 14
  • 13
  • 50
  • 30
  • 10

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 DKK m

EBITDA before special items, Q1 2015

Logistics Division Shipping Division Non-allocated

Q1 2015 – EBITDA UP BY DKK 137M OR 150%

4 4

Margin: 3.2% Margin: 7.8%

  • Optimisation of route network: positive

impact of around DKK 30m from closure of three routes with Q1 losses in 2014

  • Channel: result benefited from cost savings

related to one-ship operation on Dover-Calais and higher capacity utilization on Dover- Dunkirk driven by 9% freight and 8% passenger market growth respectively

  • Passenger: result boosted by additional

departures and higher unit revenues

  • Logistics: result improved by volume growth,

efficiency gains and positive impact from acquisitions

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SLIDE 5

Q1 2015 IN NUMBERS

5 5

DKK m1 Q1 15 Q1 14 Change vs LY REVENUE 2,926 2,848 78 EBITDA BEFORE SI 228 91 137

margin, % 7.8 3.2 4.6

P/L associates

  • 3

7

  • 10

Gain/loss asset sales Depreciations

  • 198
  • 177
  • 21

EBIT BEFORE SI 27

  • 78

106

margin, % 0.9

  • 2.8

3.7

Special Items

  • 2
  • 8

6 EBIT 25

  • 86

111 Finance

  • 41
  • 31
  • 9

PTP BEFORE SI

  • 13
  • 110

97 PTP

  • 16
  • 118

102 EMPLOYEES avg., no. 6,322 6,017 305 INVESTED CAPITAL 8,674 8,378 296 ROIC ex. SI, % (LTM) 9.0 8.0 1.0 NIBD 2,694 2,330 364 NIBD/EBITDA, times 1.7 1.9

  • 0.2

SOLVENCY, % 49 49 0.0

SI: Special items. PTP: Pre-tax profit. NIBD: Net interest-bearing debt. 1: Roundings may cause variances in sums

  • Revenue up by 3%, and up by 4% adjusted

for route closures and acquisitions

  • Shipping Division’s revenue up by 6%,

adjusted for route closures, through volume growth of 2.5% (freight) and 9.4% (pax)

  • Logistics Division’s revenue flat adjusted

for acquisitions as organic growth offset by balance issues and lower fuel surcharges

  • P/L associates: Variance of DKK -10m due

to one-off income in 2014

  • ROIC before special items of 9.0% (8.0%)
  • NIBD/EBITDA of 1.7 as increase in NIBD to

2.7bn was neutralized by higher EBITDA

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SLIDE 6

OUTLOOK 2015 RAISED TO DKK 1.65-1.75BN

6

NEW OUTLOOK 2015

  • Revenue up by around 3%, and

up by around 5% adjusted for route closures and acquisitions, unchanged

  • EBITDA of DKK 1.65-1.75bn

(DKK 1.55-1.65bn)

  • Investments of DKK 650m,

unchanged

6

  • Q1 EBITDA above expectations
  • Raise in outlook supported by growth of

varying strength in northern European markets

  • Demand from Russia was weak in Q1 and

expected to stay weak in 2015

  • Customer focus and continuous

improvement projects continue to contribute to increase in results

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SLIDE 7

2015: UPDATE ON MAJOR PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

7 7

Likely Expected Uncertain Macro drivers

  • Positive impact

from closed routes as expected

  • Resolution of

structural

  • vercapacity in

Channel uncertain

  • Level of

competitive pressure no change

  • Russian market

demand

  • Procurement

efficiencies & impact from

  • ther projects

as expected

  • Positive impact

from Logistics acquisitions as expected

  • Volume growth,

freight and passengers above outlook

  • Bunker cost

savings as expected

  • Changes in oil

price and exchange rates

  • Norwegian

market demand

  • ‘Grexit’
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SLIDE 8

SMOOTH TRANSITION TO NEW EMISSION RULES

8

  • Price spread between MGO and HFO

intact at around USD 225

  • Benefits from scrubbers, savings on

passenger routes and positive volume effects

  • Demand for freight shipping services

holding up well on routes at risk for modal backshift

  • Conversion of ”old” BAF to

seafreight price per 1 January 2015

  • Consumption savings vs LY mainly

derived from Channel and Baltic Sea, adjusted for route closures

8 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 USD and EUR

Oil prices and spread, Sep 2014 - May 2015

0,1% LSMGO, USD 3,5% IFO 380, USD 1% LS380, USD Spread, MGO vs HFO, EUR

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SLIDE 9

CHANNEL: JUDGMENT ON APPEAL CREATES NEW SITUATION

9

  • Court of Appeal allowed SCOP’s appeal in 2:1 judgment
  • Judgment runs counter to decisions taken by competition

authorities since 2012

  • CMA is seeking permission to appeal
  • Supreme Court appeal process duration of 1-2 years
  • Decision on permission to appeal to Supreme Court

estimated to be announced in Q4 2015

  • No announcement from Eurotunnel on consequences of

ruling on MFL sales process

9

CHANNEL, DKK m FY 13 FY 14 ∆ Q1 14 Q1 15 ∆ EBIT before special items

  • 100
  • 40

60

  • 66
  • 15

51

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SLIDE 10

1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q1 2015 Times

NIBD/EBITDA

CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION

10

  • The NIBD/EBITDA multiple was 1.7 at the end
  • f Q1
  • NIBD was DKK 2.7bn at the end of Q1 2015,

up from DKK 2.5bn at year-end 2014. Impact

  • n NIBD/EBITDA neutralized by higher EBITDA
  • Launch of new buy-back programme in April
  • f DKK 300m expected to increase leverage in

2015 towards the minimum target of 2.0

  • Leverage may also be increased by

acquisitions and purchase of ships in addition to the investments included in 2015 guidance

  • 7.7% of the new DKK 300m buy-back

programme was completed in week 20

10

LTM: Last twelve months Target minimum leverage

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SLIDE 11

STRATEGY, GOALS AND PRIORITIES

11 11

Priorities 2015

  • 1. Customer focus
  • 2. Efficiency and improvement

projects

  • 3. MGO transition
  • 4. Employee

satisfaction/development

  • 5. Market coverage

Best t practi tice Performanc rmance e culture ture Contin tinuo uous us impro rove veme ment nt Lev evera raging scale Custo tomer mer drive ven

DFDS’ strategy drivers:

  • The DFDS Way: Customer focus and continuous

improvement

  • Network strength: Expand to leverage operating

model

  • Integrated shipping and logistics operations:

Utilisation of tonnage

  • Financial strength and performance: Reliable

partner

  • ROIC target of 10%
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SLIDE 12

21 May 2015

Q1 2015

Q&A