2014 Owasso Economic Outlook March 14, 2014 Mark C. Snead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2014 Owasso Economic Outlook March 14, 2014 Mark C. Snead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 07, 2023 103 likes •305 views

2014 Owasso Economic Outlook March 14, 2014 Mark C. Snead President and Economist 0 The Owasso outlook continues to strengthen Summary: 1. Acceleration in local economic activity in 2013 2. Key fundamentals improved Job growth accelerating

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2014 Owasso Economic Outlook

March 14, 2014

Mark C. Snead

President and Economist

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The Owasso outlook continues to strengthen

Summary:

  • 1. Acceleration in local economic activity in 2013
  • 2. Key fundamentals improved

Job growth accelerating Sharp retail rebound Upward population revisions Housing maintains steady growth

  • 3. Robust outlook for 2014 – near pre-recession pace
  • 4. Growth should carryover into 2015 – new projects

1

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Acceleration in job growth in 2013

now far outpacing the state and Tulsa region

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Owasso Private Wage & Salary Employment

10,596 10,896

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13e

1.6% 3.3% 4.4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census, Bureau, RegionTrack

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Recovery has been balanced and broad-based

more ‘services-heavy’ in 2013

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Owasso Job Formation – Goods vs. Services

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Goods Services

  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Goods Services

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census, Bureau, RegionTrack

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21.2% 12.5% 78.8% 87.5% 76.2% 77.4% 23.8% 22.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Owasso OK OK Owasso

Industry structure shifting slowly toward services

local shift to services more national-like than state

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Share of Goods vs. Services Private Sector Jobs - Owasso

Service-providing jobs Goods-producing jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census, Bureau, RegionTrack

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Some concern over bottom in jobless rate at 4.5%

but labor force growth very positive

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2 4 6 8 10

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Tulsa MSA Owasso Percent

Owasso & Tulsa MSA Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RegionTrack

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Income and spending rebound accelerates

regional sales share may be peaking

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200 400 600 800 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$Millions

10-12% 20%+ 7-8% 3-4% 6-8%?

Owasso Sales Tax Base and Growth Rates

Sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, with X-12 trend

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Retail Sales per Capita Source: Oklahoma Tax Commission, RegionTrack Oklahoma Retail Outlook

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Use taxes surge to record high in 2013

2014 projects should boost use tax stream

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100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 $Millions

Owasso Use Tax Base Sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, with X-12 trend

Source: Oklahoma Tax Commission, RegionTrack Oklahoma Retail Outlook

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Owasso among retail growth leaders

11th largest city retail market in the state

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City Retail Sales Growth Past 12 Months

Rank City* 12-mo Total (Jan-14) 12-mo %chg Rank City* 12-mo Total (Jan-14) 12-mo %chg 1 Cushing $176,260,374 21.8 16 Ponca City 414,602,486 5.2 2 Chickasha 290,921,058 15.3 17 Durant 350,846,188 5.1 3 Bixby 285,281,096 12.8 18 Lawton 1,171,968,452 5.0 4 Grove 189,932,108 12.2 19 Glenpool 164,732,656 5.0 5 Mustang 243,399,185 9.7 20 Altus 270,831,275 4.6 6 Owasso 746,171,159 9.5 21 Stillwater 883,676,680 4.0 7 Edmond 1,721,348,885 9.3 22 Oklahoma City 11,433,978,801 3.8 8 Ardmore 589,511,978 9.1 23 Claremore 395,207,120 3.0 9 Elk City 456,390,619 9.0 24 Midwest City 921,366,835 2.9 10 Weatherford 246,497,356 8.9 25 Yukon 504,829,034 2.6 11 Warr Acres 157,938,385 8.6 26 Guthrie 166,551,236 2.4 12 Norman 1,946,704,258 7.9 27 Sand Springs 320,354,797 2.1 13 Ada 398,331,415 7.0 28 Tulsa 7,992,123,844 2.0 14 Moore 869,264,401 6.0 29 Okmulgee 161,421,739 0.9 15 Broken Arrow 1,314,041,401 5.7 30 Duncan 444,062,298 0.5 *Cities with monthly retail sales above $10 million

Source: Oklahoma Tax Commission, RegionTrack Oklahoma Retail Outlook

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Recent Census population revisions to the upside

some slowing in population gains

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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f

Prior Census Estimate Current Census Estimate Current Forecast Prior Forecast

Owasso Population Revisions and Forecasts

Source: Census Bureau, RegionTrack

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Owasso estimates inconsistent with similar cities

upward revisions likely to 2012 population estimate

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Oklahoma City-Level Population Growth

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 State Owasso Edmond Glenpool Bixby Jenks

Source: Census Bureau, RegionTrack

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Housing remains in recovery mode

valuation gains mask weak unit growth

11 180 235

10 20 30 40 50 60 100 200 300 400 500 600 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Single Family Housing Permits Value ($mil) Units Value of New Single Family Homes

Owasso Single Family Housing Permits

Source: Census Bureau, RegionTrack

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Little change expected in Owasso’s status as a ‘bedroom’ or ‘out-commuting’ community

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70% 80% 90% 100% 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Living in Owasso but Employed Outside Employed in Owasso but Living Outside

Owasso Worker Inflow/Outflow Patterns

e e

10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0% 02 04 06 08 10 12

Living and Employed in Owasso Source: Census Bureau, RegionTrack

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External risks to the local expansion

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Concerns remain:

  • 1. U.S. expansion is aging (4.5 years)
  • 2. Shock from Europe still possible
  • 3. Another Federal budget impasse
  • 4. China growth implosion
  • 5. Russian geopolitics
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2014 Owasso Outlook

a slightly faster version of 2013

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Owasso will far outperform the Tulsa metro area and state in job growth Private wage/salary job growth: 2011: 1.6% (170 jobs) 2012: 3.3% (340 jobs) 2013: 4.4% (450 jobs) 2014: 6.2% (670 jobs) Most new jobs created in construction and health care. Further gains expected in trade, transportation, and professional & business services. Financial services continues to recover. Few manufacturing jobs added. Unemployment rate should move toward 4%

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2014 Owasso Outlook, cont.

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Retail sales robust: 8.5% in 2014 (cyclical and new retailers) Population growth bounces to 3.7% in 2014 – more upward revisions Housing repeats 2013 with modest activity Conditions are setting up well for 2015

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2015 Could be Strong Surge Year

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Strong momentum should be in place for 2015 surge:

  • continued cyclical recovery
  • added retail boost
  • construction and hiring impacts from distribution center
  • strong sales and use tax growth
  • low double-digit job growth likely
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2014 Owasso Economic Outlook

mark.snead@regiontrack.com