2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
Financial Year Ended 30 June 2014
Grant King, Managing Director Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and S trategy 21 August 2014
2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT Financial Year Ended 30 June - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT Financial Year Ended 30 June 2014 Grant King, Managing Director Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and S trategy 21 August 2014 Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking
Grant King, Managing Director Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and S trategy 21 August 2014
Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. S uch statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from t he events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause obj ectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, j oint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, regulatory environments, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause obj ectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised. None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective
likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking
S tatements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Except as required by applicable law or the AS X Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. No offer of securities This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any j urisdiction.
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Statutory Profit* $530 m up 40% S tatutory EPS * 48.1 cps up 39% Underlying Profit1* $713m down 6% Underlying EPS * 64.8 cps down 7% Group OCAT $2,041m up 79% Total Recordable Inj ury Frequency Rate 5.0 down from 6.52
* Refer t o Appendix. (1) A breakdown of It ems excluded from Underlying Profit is provided on slide 13. (2) Revised from 6.7 previously report ed due t o ret rospect ive dat a updat es. (3) Annualised 5 |
Total S hareholder Return
10 20 30 40 50 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Exposure Hours (million) TRIFR Exposure Hours TRIFR
Total Recordable Inj ury Frequency Rate
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 10 Y ear TS R 1 Y ear TS R
Origin S &P AS X100
3
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Underlying Profit down $47m to $713m OCAT up $899m to $2,041m APLNG
Upstream 76% complete Downstream 75% complete Lower contribution from Energy Markets primarily due to lower volumes Higher contribution from E&P due to record production with increased asset availability, partly offset by higher greenfield exploration expense Higher contribution from Contact Positive change in working capital from improved billing and collections Lower tax paid in FY2014 due to timing differences arising on the payment of tax instalments On track for first LNG in mid-2015 Estimated proj ect costs to complete in line with budget
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equity, provided appropriate market conditions prevail
Ranking
ubordinated debt obligations, ranking only in priority to ordinary shares
hybrid (both issued in 2011 to partly fund APLNG) Maturity
Rating agencies
&P Indicative Hybrid Features
Improving the Performance of the Existing Businesses
Delivering the APLNG Proj ect Managing Funding and Balance S heet Position Creating Growth Opportunities for the Medium to Longer Term
(1) Excludes Cont act Energy and bank guarant ees, as at 30 June 2014.
delivering operational and cash flow improvements S tabilising customer numbers Improving customer experience Expansion of gas margins Value captured through signing of gas purchase and sale agreements Increased availability and production from upstream assets following investments Increased flexibility and lower generation costs at Contact Energy following period of investment
Progress continues – Upstream 76% complete, Downstream 75% complete
Funding initiatives have lengthened debt maturities and improved liquidity position
Progressing existing opportunities in gas and renewables to provide ongoing growth following the completion of APLNG Expanding Australian/ New Zealand gas resource opportunities including Cooper, Beetaloo and Browse basins
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Regional leader in energy markets Regionally significant position in Natural Gas and LNG production
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Growing position in renewable energy Improving returns in energy markets businesses
markets
costs
experience
renewables benefits
Delivering growth in Natural Gas and LNG
existing upstream assets including APLNG
in Australia and New Zealand
Growing capabilities and increase investment in renewables
Capital Management and Funding
distributions to shareholders
liquidity and investment grade credit rating
in growing businesses
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($ million) FY2014 FY2013 Change Statutory Profit 530 378 152 S tatutory EPS 48.1 cps 34.6 cps 13.5 Revenue 14,518 14,747 (229) Underlying EBITDA* 2,139 2,181 (42) Underlying EBIT* 1,353 1,438 (85) Underlying net financing cost (192) (255) 63 Underlying income tax expense (342) (339) (3) Underlying Profit1 713 760 (47) Underlying EPS 64.8 cps 69.5 cps (4.7) Group OCAT 2,041 1,142 899 Free Cash Flow 1,599 1,188 411 Capital Expenditure2 1,012 1,172 (160) Origin’s Cash Contributions to APLNG3 2,821 561 (2,260) Origin Undrawn Committed Debt Facilities and Cash4 5,129 5,251 (122)
* Refer t o Appendix. (1) A breakdown of It ems excluded from Underlying Profit is provided on slide 13. (2) Based on cash flow amount s rat her t han accrual account ing amount s; includes growt h and st ay-in-business capit al expendit ure, capit alised int erest and acquisit ions. (3) Made via bot h loan repayment s t o APLNG and t he issue of mandat orily redeemable cumulat ive preference shares by APLNG. (4) Excluding Cont act Energy and bank guarant ees. 11 |
Energy Markets EBITDA decline (-$280m):
solar PV and warm winter weather
non-cash TS A provision unwind for acquired NS W customers E&P EBITDA improvement (+$92m):
improved asset availability
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Contact EBITDA improvement (+$98m):
favourable FX Depreciation and Amortisation (+$37m):
basins
($ million) Underlying EBITDA Underlying EBIT FY2014 FY2013 Change FY2014 FY2013 Change Energy Markets 1,053 1,333 (21% ) 787 1,038 (24% ) Exploration & Production 487 395 23% 210 162 30% LNG 83 60 38% 12 5 140% Contact Energy 533 435 23% 361 279 29% Corporate (17) (42) (60% ) (17) (46) (63% ) Total 2,139 2,181 (2% ) 1,353 1,438 (6% )
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Asset disposals and impairments:
upply agreement and settlement of GenTrader arrangements (+$267m)
LNG related items: financing costs (-$168m) and non-cash foreign currency losses (-$14m) Other:
W energy assets transition costs, including Eraring Energy acquisition (-$59m)
($ million) FY2014 FY2013 Change Statutory Profit 530 378 152 Items Excluded from Underlying Profit Decrease in fair value of financial instruments (196) (243) 47 Asset disposals, dilution and impairments 157 352 (195) LNG related items (192) (262) 70 Other 48 (229) 277 Total Items Excluded from Underlying Profit (183) (382) 199 Underlying Profit 713 760 (47)
($ million) FY2014 FY2013 Change Underlying EBITDA 2,139 2,181 (42) Change in working capital 163 (298) 461 S tay-in-business capex (309) (267) (42) S hare of APLNG OCAT net of EBITDA (55) (34) (21) Exploration expense 54 18 36 NS W acquisition related liabilities (54) (185) 131 Other 120 2 118 Tax paid (17) (275) 258 Group OCAT* 2,041 1,142 899 Net interest paid (442) (436) (6) Oil S ale Agreement
(482) Free cash flow 1,599 1,188 411 Productive Capital* 16,577 15,783 794 Group OCAT ratio* 11.5% 6.4% 5.1%
* Refer t o Glossary in S ect ion 5.
Decrease in ut ilisat ion of non-cash provisions for NS W TS A and onerous hedge cont ract s Reduced Energy Market s debt ors due t o significantly improved billing and collect ions performance and lower sales Foreign exchange t ranslat ion of Cont act , full year from Mort lake commissioned during prior year and capit al expendit ure in t he Ot way Basin
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Lower t ax paid due t o t iming differences on t he payment of t ax inst alment s
Int erest paid on a net debt posit ion
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 FY2013 FY2014
$ million
APLNG E&P Contact Energy Markets Corporate
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improving operating cash flow from lower working capital requirements and lower productive capital
production and commodity price driven EBITDA, lower working capital requirements and reduced S IB capex spend primarily from Cooper
capital driven by foreign exchange on translation
Growth Capital Expenditure by S egment 1 and Origin’s cash contribution to APLNG2
* Refer t o Glossary in S ect ion 5. (1) Includes capit alised int erest (2) Made via bot h loan repayment s t o APLNG and t he issue of mandat orily redeemable cumulat ive preference shares by APLNG.
Origin has reduced growth capital expenditure in the energy markets businesses and focused spend
businesses
Operating Cash Flow* Productive Capital OCFR* (% )
FY2014 ($m) FY2013 ($m) % Change FY2014 ($m) FY2013 ($m) % Change FY2014 FY2013
Energy Markets 1,035 812 27% 9,565 9,849 (3% ) 10.8% 8.2% Exploration & Production 529 233 127% 2,249 2,063 9% 23.5% 11.3% Contact Energy 416 373 12% 4,689 4,176 12% 8.9% 8.9%
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025+ A$ million
Loans & Bank Guarantees - Undrawn Loans & Bank Guarantees - Drawn Capital Markets Debt & Hybrids
(1) Excludes Cont act Energy.
Origin Debt & Bank Guarantee Maturity Profile as at 30 June 20141
interest in the Poseidon exploration j oint venture was funded on 12 August 2014 through a drawdown of existing committed undrawn debt facilities
drawdown of debt capital via the issue of new European hybrid securities, provided appropriate market conditions prevail
refinancing during the first half of the 2015 financial year.
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(1) As a result s of ut ilisat ion of available t ax losses and t he impact of development proj ect s, including APLNG, Origin does not expect t o have sufficient franking credit s t o frank t he final dividend (2) Dist ribut able amount is cash flow aft er revenues, operat ional expendit ure, ongoing capit al expendit ure, proj ect finance int erest and repayment s and t ax. Based on current market condit ions. 17 |
Dividends and Underlying EPS
contribution from APLNG is expected to be FY2017, with distributable cash flow to Origin expected to be around US $1 billion 2 on average per year
per share to free cash flow
increase in line with Origin’s targeted payout ratio of at least 60%
Underlying EPS as APLNG contributes to earnings and cash flow
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
Cent s per share Free Cash Flow per share Dividend per share
Dividends and Free Cash Flow per share
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 100% 100% 50% 0% 70% 61% 72% 77% Cents per share g y Dividend per share Underlying EPS Franking Payout Ratio
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to $1,053 million primarily due to lower Mass Market volumes from energy efficiency trends, historically warm winter weather and solar PV penetration, and higher
, down from 9.6% in the prior year and up from 7.2% at HY2014
to $1,035 million due to significantly improved billing and collections performance following completion of the Retail Transformation Program
A provision unwind
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1, 333 1, 053 200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 FY2013 FY2014
Underlying EBITDA
($m)
Underlying EBITDA
812 1,035
200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 FY2013 FY2014
Operating Cashflow
($m)
Operating Cash Flow
155 96
200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 FY2013 FY2014
Growth Capex
($m)
Growth Capex
1,333 1,053 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
$ million
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Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA Bridge
– Volumes - warm winter weather (-$27m); energy efficiency and solar PV (-$52m); prior year customer losses and
– Published electricity prices recover Cost of Goods S
margin compressed due to discounting (-$39m)
– Margin expansion reflecting rising gas prices and benefits of legacy portfolio (+$48m), offset by warm winter weather (-$13m) and prior period revenue true-up and other movements (-$29m)
Profit due to fewer solar PV installations, lower LPG volumes and adverse commodity prices (-$36m)
cash costs more than offset by lower TS A provision unwind (-$67m)
(183) 6 (36) (67)
Volumes Sold (TWh) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market 18.0 20.1 (2.1) C&I 20.3 22.2 (1.9) Total 38.3 42.3 (4.0) Electricity Performance ($/MWh) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market Revenue 286.0 268.3 17.7 C&I Revenue 136.3 137.3 (1.0) Combined Revenue 208.6 201.7 6.9 Network costs (94.7) (88.5) (6.2) Wholesale energy portfolio costs (72.7) (70.7) (2.0) Generation operating costs (6.3) (6.5) 0.2 Energy procurement costs (79.0) (77.3) (1.7) Total Cost of Goods Sold (173.7) (165.8) (7.9) Gross Profit 34.9 35.9 (1.0) Gross profit per customer ($)1 461 521 (60)
Unit Gross Profit down 3% (down 9% in 1st half, up 4% in 2nd half)
(1) Based on average cust omer account s. 21 |
Gross Profit per customer down 11%
Higher energy procurement costs consistent with contract market
moved largely in line with increases in network and energy costs
percentage of Mass Market Electricity revenue increased from 2.4% to 3.7%
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 MWh/ Capita AEMO FY14 Actual AEMO FY14 Forecast
continuing to decline at around 3.5% until FY2015, softening to around 1.5% thereafter, expected to be offset by GDP growth
RES subsidies and solar feed-in-tariffs total around $6 billion from 2011 to 20133
Usage t rend includes effect s of energy efficiency and solar PV
NEM Mass Market Electricity Consumption per Capita1
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Origin’s Average S igned Discount Offers for Electricity and Natural Gas (% )2
W
rates rising
programs and improved customer experience
(1) AEMO Nat ional Energy Forecast ing Report 2014 (2) August 2014 dat a is up t o and including 17 August (3) Clean Energy Regulat or websit e and Origin analysis Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct -13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
VIC S A NS W QLD
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 FY2013 FY2014 TWh
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 $/ MWh
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Average Annual Prices
$1.70/ MWh, in line with contract prices
in FY2013, including 46 PJ of gas
in FY2014, including 55 PJ of gas
Origin’s Internal Generation
(1) Energy procurement cost s = wholesale energy port folio cost s + generat ion operat ing cost s (2) ICAP forward curve, carbon inclusive 12 mont h average prior t o t he period
S pot prices down $6.40/ MWh Cont ract prices up $2.25/ MWh Spot prices Contract prices2 Carbon
Volumes Sold (PJ) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market 37.1 39.4 (2.3) C&I 71.1 87.8 (16.7) Total 108.2 127.2 (19.0) Natural Gas Performance ($/GJ) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market Revenue 23.0 21.1 1.9 C&I Revenue 7.2 6.2 1.0 Combined Revenue 12.6 10.9 1.7 Network costs (5.4) (4.4) (1.0) Gas procurement costs (4.7) (4.4) (0.3) Total Cost of Goods Sold (10.1) (8.8) (1.3) Gross Profit 2.5 2.1 0.4 Gross Profit Per Customer ($)1 268 279 (11)
(1) Based on average cust omer account s.
Increased Unit Gross Profit up 19%
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Gross Profit per customer down 4% Tariff increases reflecting higher wholesale energy costs more than offset increases in Origin’s purchase costs
1,547 1,551 1,076 1,075 926 917 366 369
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 FY2013 FY2014 Cust omer Account s ('000) NS W Vic Qld S A
998 1,036 2,917 2,876
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
FY2013 FY2014
Cust omer Account s ('000) Nat ural Gas Elect ricit y
5 10 15 20 25
NSW Victoria QLD South Australia
Cust omer Account s ('000) Elect ricit y Nat ural Gas
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cust omer gains
cust omer losses
FY2014 Electricity and Natural Gas Customer Account Movements by S tate Electricity and Natural Gas Customer Accounts By S tate By Commodity
637 538 841 1008 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 FY2013 FY2014 Customer wins and retains ('000) R etains Wins 1201 1364 277 182 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 FY2013 FY2014 Customer wins and retains ('000) External Internal 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Vic Qld S A NS W NEM % Churn
Origin, FY2013 Origin, FY2014 Market , FY2013 Market , FY2014
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Electricity and Natural Gas Churn Rates S ales Channels Customer Wins and Retains
uccess of retention programs reducing churn
market churn
evident in churn lower than market in all states
Cost to serve FY2014 FY2013 Change Cost to serve ($ per average customer account) (169) (180) 11 Cost to maintain ($ per average customer account) (144) (150) 6 Cost to acquire/ retain ($ per average customer account) (25) (30) 5 Elec, Natural Gas & Non-commodity cost to serve (excl. TSA provision unwind) ($m) (663) (697) 34 Maintenance costs ($m) (565) (581) 16 Acquisition & retention costs ($m) (97) (116) 19 TS A provision unwind ($m) 30 136 (106) Elec, Natural Gas & Non-commodity cost-to-serve (incl. TSA provision unwind )($m) (632) (561) (71) LPG Operating Costs ($m) (127) (131) 4 Total Operating Costs ($m) (759) (692) (67)
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Lower cash cost t o serve Higher cost t o serve aft er TS A provision unwind
812 1,035
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
FY2013 FY2014
$ million
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Operating Cash Flow
Up 27%
Operating metrics FY2014 FY2013 Billing performance 99.8% 99.2% Doubtful Debt expense as a percentage of revenue 1.0% 1.8% Calls per customer 1.3 1.6 Complaints per 1000 customers 6.6 9.0 Customer satisfaction 70% 65% ebilling accounts 621k 157k
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t o NZ$587 million primarily due t o a reduct ion in t he cost
compensat ion as a result of t he delayed st art -up of t he Te Mihi Power S t at ion
t o A$533 million, including t he impact of t he st rengt hening New Zealand dollar
t o A$416 million
435 533
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Underlying EBITDA
($m)
Underlying EBITDA
373 416
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Operating Cashflow
($m)
Operating Cash Flow
255 183
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Growth Capex
($m)
Growth Capex
Volumes Sold (GWh) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market 3,852 4,067 (215) C&I 4,526 4,210 316 Total 8,378 8,277 101 Electricity Performance ($/MWh) FY2014 FY2013 Change Mass Market 249.1 239.4 9.7 C&I 126.9 132.5 (5.6) Combined Revenue 183.1 185.0 (1.9) Network costs (70.4) (68.3) (2.1) Wholesale energy portfolio costs (22.5) (31.5) 9.0 Generation operating costs (10.2) (9.9) (0.3) Energy procurement costs (32.7) (41.5) 8.7 Total Cost of Goods Sold (103.2) (109.8) 6.6 Gross Profit 79.9 75.2 4.7 Gross profit per customer ($) 1,530 1,417 114
Unit Gross Profit up 6%
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Gross Profit per customer up 8% Increased proportion of energy sourced from hydro and geothermal, displacing natural gas
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Geothermal Hydro Thermal
Contact’s Renewable and Thermal Generation (based on TWh of generation) Flexibility of Contact’s portfolio allows management of variable
existing renewable assets
take-or-pay constraints
t o $487 million reflect ing higher product ion from Origin’s main
t o $529 million reflect ing higher Underlying EBITDA, lower working capit al requirement s and lower S IB capex
t o $1.84/ GJe predominant ly due t o increased product ion
32 | (1) Refer t o Import ant Informat ion in t he Appendix.
395 487
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Underlying EBITDA
($m)
Underlying EBITDA
233 529
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Operating Cashflow
($m)
Operating Cash Flow
426 365
100 200 300 400 500 600 FY2013 FY2014
Growth Capex
($m)
Growth Capex
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 FY2013 FY2014 Liquids Gas PJe 0.0 3.4 6.9 10.3 13.7 17.2 20.6 20 40 60 80 100 120 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 mmboe PJe
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Origin Gas and Liquids Production1
Product ion up 17%
Origin 2P Reserves1,2
(1) Excluding APLNG. (2) Refer t o Import ant Informat ion in t he Appendix.
Opportunities Origin has recently secured three prospective opportunities in Australia:
with S enex and Planet Gas, targeting tights sands, shale and deep coal
with Falcon and S asol, targeting shale gas and associated liquids
with ConocoPhillips and PetroChina, targeting
T
S A Cooper & S WQ Perth S urat Bass T aranaki - Onshore Otway Kupe
60 83
20 40 60 80 100 FY2013 FY2014
Underlying EBITDA
($m)
561 2,821
500 1, 000 1, 500 2, 000 2, 500 3, 000 FY2013 FY2014
($m)
ubstantial progress made on the proj ect
complete
complete
APLNG 3P Reserves up 8% to 17,459 PJe2
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Underlying EBITDA Origin’s Cash Contributions to APLNG1
(1) Made via bot h loan repayment s t o APLNG and t he issue of mandat orily redeemable cumulat ive preference shares by APLNG. (2) Refer t o Import ant Informat ion in t he Appendix. 1P Reserves are 4,581 PJe, 2P Reserves are 14,091 PJe.
(1) APLNG capit al expendit ure (100% ) derived from APLNG’ s Financial S t at ement s; on an accruals basis. (2) Made via bot h loan repayment s t o APLNG and t he issue of mandat orily redeemable cumulat ive preference shares by APLNG. (3) At 31 December 2012 exchange rat es.
(A$m) Year to 30 June 2014 Cumulative from FID1 to 30 June 2014 Estimate from FID1 to 1st sales from Train 2 (A$b) Proj ect Capex 8,5071 21,004 24.73 Non-Proj ect Capex: Capitalised O&M 345 Domestic 933 Exploration S ustain 72 91 Total APLNG Capex 9,948 Origin cash contribution 2,8212 4,5492
As at 30 June 2014, APLNG had drawn down US $7.8 billion of the US $8.5 billion proj ect finance facility
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Reedy Creek Gas Processing Facilit y
Upstream Operated Goals FY2014 Plan Actual Progress to 30 June 2014
First gas and wat er product ion from Reedy Creek (west ern area) Q3 Accomplished Main pipelines complet e Q3 Accomplished Condabri Cent ral Train 1 commissioned Q4 Accomplished First gas and wat er product ion from Orana (east ern area) Q4 Accomplished Talinga pipeline compression st at ion mechanical complet ion Q4 Accomplished Orana Train 1 mechanical complet ion Q1-FY15 Accomplished Reedy Creek Train 1 mechanical complet ion Q1-FY15 Accomplished
Condabri Nort h Gas Processing Facilit y Condabri Cent ral wat er and brine ponds
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17,459 PJe3 and 2P reserves to 14,091 PJe (net of production)
cover gas requirements for all domestic contracts, as well as off-takes from both LNG trains
Phase 1 are expected to produce around 1,200 TJ/ d4, with an additional 200 TJ/ d4 from non-operated assets
market demand but operationally cycled to maintain confidence in deliverability
considerably higher than current production levels
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(1) Refer t o Import ant Informat ion in t he Appendix. (2) Represent s ramp and t ail gas for t wo t rains, volume will vary depending on operat ion st rat egy. (3) 1P Reserves are 4,581 PJe. (4) Excludes domest ic gas sales and pre LNG-st art up gas sales t o QGC.
100% APLNG Reserves and Resources1
10,000 15,000 20,000 Train 1 Origin Cont ract 1P Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2 3P 2P QCLNG GSA
Domest ic Gas Est imat ed Requirement s
2
PJ
Curt is Island LNG t anks Curt is Island LNG t rains Curt is Island aerial view
Downstream Operated Goals FY2014 Plan Actual Progress to 30 June 2014
First cryo modules set Q3 Accomplished Last Train 2 refrigerat ion compressor set Q3 Accomplished Complet e loading plat form for LNG j et t y Q4 Expect ed Q1-FY15 (no consequential impact t o t he crit ical pat h) All out side bat t ery limit (OS BL) modules set Q4 Accomplished LNG Tank A hydrost at ic t est complet e Q4 Accomplished Last Train 1 module set Q4 Accomplished Last Train 2 module set Q2-FY15 On t rack
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Upstream Operated HY2015 Plan Downstream HY2015 Plan
Orana Train 2 mechanical complet ion Q2 Inlet Air Chiller Package received on Curt is Island Q1 Reedy Creek Train 2 mechanical complet ion Q2 LNG Tank B hydrost at ic t est complet e Q1 Condabri S
complet ion Q2 Complet e Fact ory Accept ance Test ing (F AT)
afet y S yst em (ICS S ) Q2 First wat er t reat ed at Condabri Wat er Treat ment Facilit y Q2 Last Train 2 module set Q2 First wat er t reat ed at Reedy Creek Wat er Treat ment Facilit ies Q3 Energize Gas Turbine Generat ors (GTGs) Q3 Eurombah Creek Train 1 mechanical complet ion Q3 Tank A ready for LNG Q3
Key near term proj ect goals and milestones
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Regional leader in energy markets Regionally significant position in Natural Gas and LNG production
41 |
Growing position in renewable energy Improving returns in energy markets businesses
markets
costs
experience
renewables benefits
Delivering growth in Natural Gas and LNG
existing upstream assets including APLNG
in Australia and New Zealand
Growing capabilities and increase investment in renewables
Capital Management and Funding
distributions to shareholders
liquidity and investment grade credit rating
in growing businesses
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Net Posit ion (MWs) Capacit y (MWs) Renewable (Derat ed) Hydro Brown Coal Black Coal Gas Demand Net Posit ion (RHS)
to alleviate the generation over supply through additional load and redirection
production, together around 15 TWh2
increase to meet this requirement, equivalent to around 6.8 mtpa3
MW of existing capacity should be retired or be placed into dry storage by 2017, with around 1,500 MW already announced
dry storage between 2010 and 2012
(1) Hist oric S upply - 2013 NTNDP, AEMO dat a, Origin modelling; Forecast S upply - 2013 NTNDP; Demand - 2014 NEFR and 2014 ES OO; Renewable cont ribut ion t o supply derat ed based on AEMO modelling. (2) AEMO’ s 2013 GS OO and 2014 NEFR. (3) Assuming average heat rat e of QLD and NS W coal-fired generat ion plant s of 10.0 GJ/ MWh and average specific energy of QLD and NS W black coal of 22.2 GJ/ t onne.
NEM S upply and Demand (Capacity)1
Net capacit y posit ion (RHS )
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50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Elect ricit y Generat ion Cogenerat ion Met hanol Ot her Demand
PJ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Calendar Y ear
Geothermal Gas Coal
43 |
(1) S
S
NZ Geothermal and Thermal Energy S upply1 (based on TWh of generation)
20 40 60 80 100 120
$/ MWh Wholesale (ex carbon) Carbon LREC S pot PP A
44 |
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 MWh/ Capita AEMO FY14 Actual AEMO FY14 Forecast
NEM Mass Market Elect ricit y Consumpt ion per Capit a1
Review policy and regulatory settings
W, VIC and S A have full electricity price deregulation, with QLD progressing
– Current target requires new generation in
excess of demand growth
– Embedded cross subsidies must be
addressed to ensure equitable distribution
New Products and Services
technology, electric vehicles, distributed generation and storage
Wind Pricing2
(1) AEMO Nat ional Elect ricit y Forecast ing Report 2014 (2) LREC S pot price from ICAP; Illust rat ive t rend of PPA pricing based on hist orical dat a point s; FY2015 Wholesale and LREC S pot prices up t o 14 August 2014.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Vic Qld S A NS W NEM % Churn
Origin, FY2013 Origin, FY2014 Market , FY2013 Market , FY2014
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY2013 FY2014 $ million Cash Cost Cost incl. TS A
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Lower cash cost t o serve offset by non-cash TS A provision unwind
Cost to S erve Electricity and Natural Gas Churn Rates Continued improvement in
to achieve world class cost structure Improved customer experience
50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Calendar Y ear
Ironbark (new equity gas) Other purchases APLNG purchases Origin's existing equity gas PJ/ a
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W regulated prices provide for an increase of 18.4%
1 in FY2015
A have increased by around 13%
1 for FY2015
Executed agreements with C&I customers and other LNG proj ects
up to 30 PJ in calendar year 2014 & 2015
up to 194 PJ over 5 years from 2016
22 PJ over 7 years from 2013
S
East Coast Contracted Gas Portfolio
2
(1) Inclusive of carbon (2) Pot ent ial development wit h indicat ive st art dat e in 2018 calendar year
Retail market
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
FY2013 FY2014
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Contact’s Renewable and Thermal Generation (based on TWh of generation)
Contact’s Generation as a %
Total Electricity S ales
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 estimate Geothermal Hydro Thermal
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 $ million
48 |
S egment Growth Capital Expenditure
S egment Operating Cash Flow less Growth Capital Expenditure
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 $ million
Energy Markets Contact Energy Markets Contact
49 | (1)
Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool Q1 2014 – Import s & Demand
QCLNG APLNG GLNG ~ 25 mtpa Darwin LNG Ichthys ~12 mtpa Prelude ~ 3.5 mtpa NWS Pluto Wheatstone Gorgon ~ 45 mtpa
Exporting to Asia Pacific markets where demand is set to almost double from 175 mtpa in 2013 to 325 mtpa in 20251
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Downstream 75% Complete Upstream 76% Complete
(1) Dist ribut able amount is cash flow aft er revenues, operat ional expendit ure, ongoing capit al expendit ure, proj ect finance int erest and repayment s and t ax. Based on current market condit ions. The first full year of cont ribut ion from APLNG is expect ed t o be FY2017. (2) Refer t o Import ant Informat ion in t he Appendix. 1P Reserves are 4,581 PJe, 2P Reserves are 14,091 PJe.
APLNG t enure in t he S urat and Bowen basins at 30 April 2014
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Otway Basin
expected in Q1 FY2015 and planning for drilling Geographe 3 development well is underway
peculant exploration well expected in Q1 FY2015 Bass Basin
2014/ 15 summer period Cooper
expected to result in more efficient and cost effective drilling programs
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Browse Basin – JV with ConocoPhillips and PetroChina
such as the Poseidon discovery
export opportunities linked to growing demand in Asia region
interest in two exploration permits Beetaloo Basin – JV with Falcon and S asol
liquids in one of NT’s most prospective
interest, Origin as operator Canterbury Basin
approval of 5 year extension and forward program variation Cooper Basin – JV with S enex and Planet Gas
interest in permit areas Surat Basin - Ironbark
development and investment decision for the Ironbark field continues
500 1,000 1,500 Hydro Geot hermal Wind MW
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Australia S tockyard Hill, a 300- 500 MW wind development proj ect in western Victoria New Zealand 250 MW geothermal power station consented at Tauhara, the next most competitive scale resource Chile 40% in Energia Andina geothermal exploration JV . JV interest in Energia Austral hydro development
Portfolio of Renewable Operational Generation
Contact
Indonesia 47.5% interest in S
Marapi geothermal concession – JV with Tata Power Origin has a growing domestic solar PV business in Australia
Renewable Development Opportunities
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Priorities post APLNG: 1. Increase distributions to shareholders 2. Maintain investment grade credit rating 3. Reinvest cash in growing businesses at returns exceeding cost of capital
(1) Dist ribut able amount is cash flow aft er revenues, operat ional expendit ure, ongoing capit al expendit ure, proj ect finance int erest and repayment s and t ax. Based on current market condit ions.
The first full year of contribution from APLNG is expected to be FY2017, with distributable cash flow to Origin expected to be around US $1 billion1 on average per year
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During the next two years Origin expects:
improved margins in Natural Gas in FY2015 and improved contributions from Electricity in FY2016 as competitive conditions in the wholesale market moderate
geothermal generation and retail transformation. FY2015 will include a full year of Te Mihi generation, together with a full year of associated depreciation and interest costs
(BassGas and Otway) to invest in sustaining production capacity for FY2016 and beyond
amortisation
is not expected that LNG sales from APLNG will contribute to FY2015 earnings, with production from both trains at planned capacity occurring before end of FY2016, with first full year contribution from both trains expected in FY2017
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All figures in this report relate to businesses of the Origin Energy Group (Origin, or the Company), being Origin Energy Limited and its controlled entities, for the full year ended 30 June 2014 (the period) compared with the full year ended 30 June 2013 (the prior corresponding period), except where otherwise stated. Origin’ s Financial S tatements for the full year ended 30 June 2014 are presented in accordance with Australian Accounting S
egment results, which are used to measure segment performance, are disclosed in Note 2 of the Financial S tatements and are disclosed on a basis consistent with the information provided internally to the Managing Director. Origin’ s S tatutory Profit contains a number of items that when excluded provide a different perspective on the financial and operational performance of the business. Income S tatement amounts presented on an underlying basis such as Underlying Consolidated Profit , are non-IFRS financial measures, and exclude the impact of these items consistent with the manner in which the Managing Director reviews the financial and operating performance of the business. Each underlying measure disclosed has been adj usted to remove the impact of these items on a consistent basis. A reconciliation and description of the items that contribute to t he difference between S tatutory Profit and Underlying Consolidated Profit is provided in slide 13. This report also includes certain other non-IFRS financial measures. These non-IFRS financial measures are used internally by management to assess the performance of Origin’ s business and make decisions on allocation of resources. Further information regarding the non-IFRS financial measures and other key terms used in this presentation is included in this Appendix. Non-IFRS measures have not been subj ect to audit or review. Certain comparative amounts from the prior corresponding period have been re-presented to conform to the current period’ s presentation and/ or to reflect the adoption of new accounting standards (specifically AAS B 11 Joint Arrangements). A reference to Contact Energy is a reference to Origin’ s controlled entity (53.1%
tandards, Origin consolidates Contact Energy within its result. A reference to Australia Pacific LNG or APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Ltd in which Origin had a 50% shareholding until 9 August 2011, when completion of a share subscription agreement between Australia Pacific LNG and S inopec resulted in a dilution in Origin’ s shareholding to 42.5% . This shareholding was subsequently diluted to 37.5% upon completion of S inopec’ s increased share subscription in Australia Pacific LNG on 12 July 2012. Origin’ s shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG is equity accounted. A reference to the NS W acquisition or NS W energy assets is a reference to the Integral Energy and Country Energy retail businesses and the Eraring GenTrader arrangements acquired by Origin in March 2011. The Eraring Energy GenTrader arrangements were settled as part of the acquisition of the Eraring Power S tation completed on 1 August 2013. A reference to $ is a reference to Australian dollars unless specifically marked otherwise.
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All references to debt are a reference to interest bearing debt only (excludes Australia Pacific LNG shareholder loans). Individual items and totals are rounded to the nearest appropriate number or decimal. S
page due to rounding of individual components. When calculating a percentage change, a positive or negative percentage change denotes the mathematical movement in the underlying metric, rather than a positive or a detrimental impact. Measures for which the underlying numbers change from negative to positive, or vice versa, are labelled as not applicable. This presentation includes disclosures of Origin and APLNG’ s reserves and resources as at 30 June 2014. These reserves and resources were announced on 31 July 2014 in Origin’ s Annual Reserves Report for the year ended 30 June 2014 (Annual Reserves Report). Origin confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the Annual Reserves Report and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the Annual Reserves Report continue to apply and have not materially changed. Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are typically prepared by deterministic methods with support from probabilistic
proved reserves (1P reserves) may be a conservative estimate due to the portfolio effects of the arithmetic summation. Proved plus probable plus possible (3P reserves) may be an optimistic estimate due to the same aforementioned reasons. S
G reserves and resources are subj ect to reversionary rights to transfer back to Tri-S tar a 45% interest in Australia Pacific LNG’ s share of those CS G interests that were acquired from Tri-S tar in 2002 if certain conditions are met. Origin has assessed the potential impact of reversionary rights associated with such interests based on economic tests consistent with these reserves and resources and based on that assessment does not consider that reversion will impact the reserves quoted within the Annual Reserves Report.
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Term Meaning
Net Debt Total current and non-current interest bearing liabilities only less cash and cash equivalents. Non-controlling interest Economic interest in a controlled entity of the consolidated entity that is not held by the Parent entity or a controlled entity of the consolidated entity. S hareholders’ Equity S hareholders’ residual interest in the assets of the consolidated entity after deducting all liabilities, including non-controlling interests. S tatutory EBIT Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) as calculated from the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) as calculated from the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory effective tax rate S tatutory income tax expense divided by S tatutory Profit before tax. S tatutory EPS S tatutory profit divided by weighted average number of shares. S tatutory income tax expense Income tax expense as disclosed in the Income S tatement of the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory net financing costs Interest expense net of interest income as disclosed in the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory Profit Net profit after tax and non-controlling interests as disclosed in the Income S tatement of the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory profit before tax Profit before tax as disclosed in the Income S tatement of the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements. S tatutory share of ITDA The consolidated entity’ s share of interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ITDA) of equity accounted investees as disclosed in the Origin Consolidated Financial S tatements.
Statutory Financial Measures are measures included in the Financial Statements for the Origin Consolidated Group, which are measured and disclosed in accordance with applicable Australian Accounting Standards. Statutory Financial Measures also include measures that have been directly calculat ed from, or disaggregated directly from financial information included in the Financial Statements for the Origin Consolidated Group. 59 |
Term Meaning
Adj ust ed Net Debt Net Debt adj ust ed t o remove fair value adj ust ment s on borrowings in hedge relat ionships. Free cash flow Cash available t o fund dist ribut ions t o shareholders and growt h capit al expendit ure. Free cash flow per share Free cash flow divided by t he closing number of shares on issue. Gearing Rat io Net Debt divided by Net Debt plus S hareholders’ Equit y. Gross Margin Gross profit divided by Revenue. Gross Profit Revenue less cost of goods sold. Group OCAT Group Operat ing cash flow aft er t ax (OCAT) of t he consolidat ed ent it y (including Origin’ s share of Aust ralia Pacific LNG OCAT). Group OCAT rat io (Group OCAT - int erest t ax shield) / Product ive Capit al. Int erest t ax shield The t ax deduct ion for int erest paid. Operat ing cash flow Operat ing cash flow before t ax. Operat ing cash flow ret urn (OCFR) Operat ing cash flow / Product ive Capit al excluding t ax balances.
Prior year Twelve months period ended 30 June 2013.
Product ive Capit al Funds employed including Origin’ s share of Aust ralia Pacific LNG and excluding capit al works in progress for proj ect s under development which are not yet cont ribut ing t o earnings. Calculat ed on a rolling 12 mont h basis. S hare of ITDA S hare of int erest , t ax, depreciat ion and amort isat ion (ITDA) of equit y account ed invest ees Tot al S egment Revenue Tot al revenue for t he Energy Market s, Explorat ion & Product ion, LNG, Cont act Energy and Corporat e segment s, including int er-segment sales, as disclosed in not e 2 of t he Origin Consolidat ed Financial S t at ement s. TRIFR Tot al Recordable Incident Frequency Rat e Underlying average int erest rat e Underlying int erest expense for t he current period divided by Origin’ s average drawn debt during t he year (excluding funding relat ed t o Aust ralia Pacific LNG). Underlying profit and loss measures:
egment Result
hare of ITDA Underlying measures are measures used int ernally by management t o assess t he profit abilit y of t he Origin business. The Underlying profit and loss measures are derived from t he equivalent S t at ut ory profit measures disclosed in t he Consolidat ed Financial S t at ement s and exclude t he impact of cert ain it ems t hat do not align wit h t he manner in which t he Managing Direct or reviews t he financial and operat ing performance of t he business. Underlying EBIT, Underlying EBITDA, S egment Result and Underlying Profit are disclosed in not e 2 of t he Origin Consolidat ed Financial S t at ement s. Underlying EPS is disclosed in not e 16 of t he Origin Consolidat ed Financial S t at ement s.
Non-IFRS Financial measures are defined as financial measures that are presented other than in accordance with all relevant Accounting Standards. Non-IFRS Financial measures are used internally by management to assess the performance of Origin’ s business, and to make decisions on allocation of resources. 60 |
Term Meaning
1P reserves Proved Reserves are t hose reserves which analysis of geological and engineering dat a can be est imat ed wit h reasonable cert aint y t o be commercially
probabilit y t hat t he quant it ies act ually recovered will equal or exceed t he est imat e. 2P reserves The sum of Proved plus Probable Reserves. Probable Reserves are t hose reserves which analysis of geological and engineering dat a indicat e are less likely t o be recovered t han Proved Reserves but more cert ain t han Possible Reserves. There should be at least a 50% probabilit y t hat t he quant it ies act ually recovered will equal or exceed t he best est imat e of Proved Plus Probable Reserves (2P). 3P reserves Proved plus Probable plus Possible Reserves. Possible Reserves are t hose addit ional Reserves which analysis of geological and engineering dat a suggest are less likely t o be recoverable t han Probable Reserves. The t ot al quant it ies ult imat ely recovered from t he proj ect have at least a 10% probabilit y of exceeding t he sum of Proved plus Probable plus Possible (3P), which is equivalent t o t he high est imat e scenario. 2C resources The best est imat e quant it y of pet roleum est imat ed t o be pot ent ially recoverable from known accumulat ions by applicat ion of development oil and gas proj ect s, but which are not current ly considered t o be commercially recoverable due t o one or more cont ingencies. The t ot al quant it ies ult imat ely recovered from t he proj ect have at least a 50% probabilit y t o equal or exceed t he best est imat e for 2C cont ingent resources. Capacit y fact or A generat ion plant ’ s out put over a period compared wit h t he expect ed maximum out put from t he plant in t he period based on 100% availabilit y at t he manufact urer’ s operat ing specificat ions. Discount ing For Energy Market s, discount ing refers t o offers made t o cust omers at a reduced price t o t he published t ariffs. While a cust omer bill comprises a fixed and a variable component , Origin’ s discount s only apply t o t he variable port ion. In some cases, t hese discount s are condit ional, such as requiring direct debit payment or on-t ime payment . Equivalent reliabilit y fact or Equivalent reliabilit y fact or is t he availabilit y of t he plant aft er scheduled out ages. GJ Gigaj oule = 109 j oules GJe Gigaj oules equivalent = 10-6 PJe Joule Primary measure of energy in t he met ric syst em. kT kilo t onnes = 1,000 t onnes kW Kilowat t = 103 wat t s kWh Kilowat t hour = st andard unit of elect rical energy represent ing consumpt ion of one kilowat t over one hour. MW Megawat t = 106 wat t s MWh Megawat t hour = 103 kilowat t hours Oil S ale Agreement Agreements t o sell a port ion of fut ure oil and condensat e product ion from July 2015 for 72 mont hs at prices linked t o t he oil forward pricing curve at t he agreement dat e PJ Pet aj oule = 1015 j oules PJe Pet aj oules equivalent = an energy measurement Origin uses t o represent t he equivalent energy in different product s so t he amount of energy cont ained in t hese product s can be compared. The fact ors used by Origin t o convert t o PJe are: 1 million barrels crude oil = 5.8 PJe; 1 million barrels condensat e = 5.4 PJe; 1 million t onnes LPG = 49.3 PJe; 1 TWh of elect ricit y = 3.6 PJe. TW Terawat t = 1012 wat t s TWh Terawat t hour = 109 kilowat t hours Wat t A measure of power when a one ampere of current flows under one volt of pressure.
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62 |
Gas Processing Facilities Progress
Train 1, Orana Train 1 and Reedy Creek Train 1 mechanically complete
63 | Orana Gas Processing Facilit y, July 2014
Reedy Creek Wat er Processing Facilit y, July 2014
Water Treatment Facilities
commissioning with operations expected Q2 FY2015
nearing mechanical completion with
2014
deliver ramp up for first LNG in mid-2015
expectations
1.1 TJ/ d at S pring Gully and 1.0 TJ/ d at Condabri
ustain Phase wells per year on average
ustain Phase wells is also expected to be in the range of 300 wells per year1
ustain Phase wells is expected to commence in Q2 FY2015
64 |
Gat hering works in Condabri Coil-t ubing drill rig (1) APLNG has equit y share in non-operat ed permit s of bet ween 20%
production from the Gas Processing Facilities
pring Gully under construction to accept gas from non-operated assets
transfer between the two proj ects
65 | Wandoan Int erconnect , July 2014
Talinga Pipeline Compression Facilit y, July 2014
will be sustained through to early 2015
accommodate the additional workforce
scheduled to be complete during Q1 FY2015
critical path
systems to enable commissioning to begin
piping and cable installation achieving sustained peak performance
turbine generators is tracking to plan
modules expected to be set by end of Q2 FY2015
66 | APLNG Curt is Island S it e APLNG Curt is Island S it e
For more information
David Moon Group Manager, Invest or Relat ions Email: david.moon@
Office: +61 2 9375 5816 Mobile: + 61 437 039 310 www.originenergy.com.au
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