1 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute
The Association for Technical Analysis A TA www.afta-dfw.com Disclaimer This information is produced by the Association for Technical Analysis (A f TA) and is intended for the private use of its members only. Although reasonable care is exercised in presenting the information contained herein, A f TA does not make any guarantee or other representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, nor that use of any such information will result in profits or prevent losses. Neither the Association nor its Officers assume any responsibility whatsoever for errors or omissions. Comments or materials presented do not necessarily reflect the opinion of A f TA or its Officers, nor do they constitute an endorsement of any products or services mentioned.
The Association for Technical Analysis A TA www.afta-dfw.com TONIGHT’S SPEAKER Dean Somes Cross Capital Partners Anadromous Research Mr. Somes is the portfolio manager for Cross Capital Partners, a family office located in Dallas, TX. He is a graduate of Boston College, earning dual B.A. degrees, and a published author, having written chapters in two books titled, Your Options Handbook (Wiley, 2011), by Jared Levy and What's Behind the Numbers? (McGraw-Hill, 2012), by John DelVecchio and Tom Jacobs, which was awarded the 2013 Book of the Year by Stock Trader's Almanac. Mr. Somes also provides institutional technical analysis research through his company, Anadromous Research, to the team of fund managers at the first short- only actively managed ETF named "The Active Bear", (NYSE: HDGE) and the Forensic Accounting ETF (NYSE: FLAG) as well as other traders and money managers.
4 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute P LAYING N OSTRADAMUS : A A LOOK AT AT 2015 2015 D EAN S OMES J ANUARY 20 TH , 2015 * Disclosure: Dean Somes nor his companies nor affiliations makes no guarantees or other representations as to the accuracy or completeness of information presented or discussed within this presentation, nor that use of any such information will result in profits or prevent losses. What you read or hear should not be considered to be investment advice. You are responsible for any decisions you make using information received in this presentation. You should do your own due diligence prior to making any investment decisions.
5 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Swiss Franc & Danish Krone *Disclosure
6 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Euro *Disclosure
7 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Currency hedged Euro equities *Disclosure
8 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Unemployment *Disclosure
9 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Unemployment Indicators *Disclosure
10 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute US Summary *Disclosure
11 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute US Summary: P/E’s point to limited expansion in 2015 with Tech and Healthcare outperforming again *Disclosure
12 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Midcaps PPO = % Price Oscillator A momentum oscillator measuring difference between two MA as a % of larger MA. *Disclosure
13 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute SPY ROC *Disclosure
14 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Nasdaq 100 *Disclosure
15 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Number of Hindenburg Omens up: Increased Volatility? *Disclosure
16 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Commodities *Disclosure
17 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Correlation b/w US Dollar and Commodities *Disclosure
18 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Oil: Tight vs. Conventional *Disclosure
19 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Oil: Amount of Excess Capacity *Disclosure
20 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Oil Crash: Only 5 times since ‘85 (3 during US Recessions) *Disclosure
21 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute High Yield Energy Credit: +15% of high yield market *Disclosure
22 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Strong cash flow and strong valuation *Disclosure
23 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Strong revenue, cash flow and valuation *Disclosure
24 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Gold *Disclosure
25 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute 30-Year Yield *Disclosure
26 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Conclusion Oil should snapback to around $60/barrel. Credit is the subsector that should provide the best risk/reward return structure. However, spreads could widen just a bit further. The ECB QE decision should mark an important inflection point for European stocks. A large QE would be immediately beneficial for Euro stocks. Watch HEDJ. Gold is improving as investors diversify their currency holdings. 2015 could be another year of US dominance versus Europe and other non-commodity countries However, volatility should increase this year based on a normalization of equity response to earnings growth. *Disclosure
27 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Conclusion Yields are falling, coinciding with the fall in commodities. A rebound in commodities may see a spike in yields, pushing bonds back down from overbought levels. If inflation rises, US Dollar should fall. Thus, a rebound in commodities is important to watch. *Disclosure
28 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Thank you! Dean Somes Manager, Cross Capital Partners, LP President, Anadromous Research LLC dean@crosscapitalinc.com *Disclosure
The Association for Technical Analysis A TA www.afta-dfw.com TONIGHT’S SPEAKER Ian Naismith Naismith Trading Labs Ian Naismith lives in Frisco, Texas and owns Investment Portfolio Solutions, Inc. and Naismith Trading Labs, Inc., and licenses trading signals to financial institutions in the global areas of equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and special situations. Also, he is currently Chief Technical "Animalyst" for MBS Highway. He has created and operated two registered investment advisory firms; created and co- managed a global currency mutual fund - Currency Strategies Fund; was a contributing author to "Technical Analysis in the FX Markets" (published by The Technical Analyst, UK), and has been the January cover story in FOREX Journal (published in Singapore) five years in a row - including 2014. He has developed trading indicators, indexes, and consults mutual funds, registered investment advisors, and financial product manufactures. Naismith is an honorary board member, past president and chairman of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) which represents about $35 billion under management.
DISCLAIMER • This is not direct investment advice, nor is intended to be investment advice, or construed as investment advice; but is meant to hopefully add to your well diversified toolbox for decision making. • If I offend you, please forgive me. • A lot of this is my opinion – therefore fact… ;-) • Equal emphasis (if not greater) should be given to “store of value” compared to “how do I make 15% instead of 10 %”…
Quick Bio • Owner, “Artist At Work” of Investment Portfolio Solutions, Inc. • Index, product creation; institutional consulting • Assist in signal providing to mutual funds, hedge funds, RIA’s, UCITs funds (over $1.3 billion) • Published author – FOREX; created/managed U.S. global currency mutual fund • Past president/chairman of National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) • Avid music composer/performer/collector; avid cook • Wife & girlfriend of 35 years, 2 children, live in Frisco TX.
BIASES… • I only create portfolios and signal to institutions in a dynamically moving hedge format… No naked longs or shorts for me… • Over the long haul, smoothness of equity curve, volatility and drawdown control is more important to me than the total return… • No algorithm, indicator or logic works of all the time… Thus have an allocation inventory system of a competing algos and indicators – and be willing to step aside yourself when your system is not working…
quick primer of continuing poo-poo (that will influence 2015...) • Continued “holographic markets” via overt and covert manipulation of economic indicators, employment numbers, futures contracts, interest rates, machine trading, etc. etc. etc. with the goal of forcing the “risk trade”…
Poo poo, cont. • Political ineptness with all things fiscal and/or creating value (on both sides…sorry…….) • Attempted electronic sabotage… • Global currency shell games and the continued myth of a strong dollar… • A gunning for control of the electronic landscape, both digital currency and internet policing… • The further dividing of the economic cold war…
Now, 2015… already some changes! • The two year market cadence is decaying!!! • Market cadence defined : a sequence of increasing or receding time frames comprising the whole of a market phase… • Important: detection of the POTENTIAL closure of a market phase through runup and decay tracking…
Which would you rather own???
Recommend
More recommend
