1 A1: policy context A2 Observational Evidence and Capabilities - PDF document

Overview TF HTAP draft final report PART A: Chapter structure Ozone-Aerosol Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 1 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 2 • Chapter A1: Conceptual Overview of Hemispheric or Intercontinental Transport - Per chapter of Ozone and Particulate Matter - Status • Chapter A2: Observational Evidence - Research needs • Chapter A3: Emissions & Projections • Chapter A4: Global and Regional Modeling - What are the main messages that need to be brought out? • Chapter A5: Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, and Climate - What do we know and why should we care? • Chapter A6: Synthesis - What work needs to be completed to convey these main messages? A1: Conceptual Overview of Hemispheric or Intercontinental A1: Pathways of hemispheric pollution transport Transport of Ozone and Particulate Matter. Dick Derwent/Owen Cooper Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 3 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 4 CO passive tracer • Introducing policy context; source, transport patterns, emissions, lifetimes Baseline concentrations refer to observations made at a site when it is not influenced by recent, locally emitted or produced man-made pollution. Global or hemispheric background concentration is a model construct that Lower troposphere estimates the atmospheric concentration of a pollutant due to natural sources only. Mid-upper troposphere • Source Receptor versus Source Attribution • What are the driving mechanisms of long-range transport/meteorology, and how influence by climate change. • Introduction of Chapter 2-6 (small update if needed) • 27 pages Flexpart, A. Stohl et al, 2004 1

A1: policy context A2 Observational Evidence and Capabilities Related to Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Aerosols. Kathy Law, David Parrish Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 5 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 6 •Direct observational evidence for long-range transport of ozone and aerosols from satellite, aircraft, and ground-based data. •Long-term changes (trends) in the amount of ozone or aerosols •Using meteorological/tracer measurements for source attribution •Field experiments •Recommendations A2: example of event A2.2 ozone Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 7 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 8 PICO-NARE Observatory (Azores, Portugal) transport of boreal wildfire emissions. CO is plotted with open blue circles, NOy is plotted with red squares, BC is plotted with open purple triangles and O3 is plotted with green triangles . NAS Report Present satellite retrievals are limited to tropospheric columns with little Several other examples: Do they convey the message of vertical profile information. Satellites are particularly valuable for tracking emission changes of NO2 over source regions. Also other components (CO, event and broad contineous transport and their relevance? SO2, CH2O) 2

A2: Ozone trends A2: Airquality implications Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 9 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 10 Mace Head Models Pre-industrial levels not well understood What about recent trends? LRT Air quality issues in outflow of Asia and in Arctic A2: long term surface observations A2 transport of Aerosol;satellite based Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 11 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 12 Bermuda BCO: Annual (Daily) Means 1989 - 1998 Bermuda BCO: Annual (Daily) Means 1989 - 1998 4.0 35 2.5 50 3.5 45 30 nss-Sulfate Aerosol (ug/m3) US Emissions SOx (Streets) 2.0 40 US Emissions NOx (Steets) 3.0 Nitrate Aerosol (ug/m3) 25 35 2.5 1.5 30 20 2.0 25 15 1.0 20 1.5 10 15 1.0 0.5 10 0.5 5 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 nss-SO4 Streets US SOx NO3 Streets US NOx Decades in-situ measurements have established the importance of intercontinental transport of aerosol from dust, forest fires, and anthropogenic sources. Need for expansion of observational networks Increasing role of lidar, satellite, and satellite lidar Optimum observation strategy for in situ and ground-based measurements to characterize intercontinental transport of aerosols. A particular focus should be on additional measurements to Ground-based lidar networks and mountain top measurement sites in Europe, North America quantify the sources and properties of the organic and black carbon components of transported aerosols and Asia provide large continuous data sets to characterize events 3

A2: Models-Measurement: Flexpart, adjoint, inverse A2: Use of tracer (ratios) to demonstrate LRT Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 13 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 14 • Utilize proxy records of aerosol deposition (e.g. from ice cores) as targets to test simulations of chemical transport models over multi-decade intervals. Analysis of long-term aerosol and trace element records provides information about inter-annual variability in source attribution as a particular downwind measurement site as well as insights into how emissions may have changed in the past. Particle dispersion models for source attribution; adjoint, complementary to Eulerian models Picture also in Chapter 4 A2 Tracer ratios, O3-CO-VOC, fingerprinting A2: Lagrangian experiments Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 15 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 16 • Measured trace elements and isotopic ratios can provide useful constraints on different source types and emission regions influencing aerosol data. • Further development of isotope and geochemical fingerprinting techniques for the identification of different source types and, in the case of stable isotopes information about chemical processes occurring during transport.` • Provide information on plume processing during transport • Evaluates performance of global models, and the impact of resolution, regarding plume transport and speed of dilution • Can be used to develop plume-in-grid descriptions for global models • Better understanding of mass entrainment FT to BL. 4

A2: Remaining Issues A2: Research needs Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 17 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 18 • Surface sites; mountains sites; role of WMO-GAW Rather long 67 pages=>shorten. • Vertical profiles • Aircraft- commercial airlines and unmanned aircraft Some duplications (e.g. modelling section,w/chapter 3,4). • Satellite: current use, w/ surface observations models; geostationary, future missions Some sections need more focus on message (gap) Many key messages- would be good to reduce/combine/organize • Using existing datasets for testing of models: beyond climatological testing/events them to make them stronger … but overall a lot of good material is there! A3 : Emissions and Projections, J. van Aardenne, D. Streets A3: Current+future datasets Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 19 Dentener, HTAP, Brussels June, 2010 20 140 140 Tg SO 2 Tg SO2 Long-term emission trend datasets 120 120 Int. shipping Int. shipping (century-scale) are becoming 100 100 Int. aviation Int. aviation • Available datasets for studies of hemispheric transport of AP: current and future (RCPs) 80 REF 80 REF available and present a new OECD90 OECD90 60 60 • Description of data in EDGAR-HTAP (hierarchy of datasets) opportunity to characterize MAF MAF 40 40 LAM LAM 20 20 intercontinental pollution • Emission trends 1850-2100 ASIA ASIA 0 0 flows in the past and future. 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 • Natural emissions 1a. Harmonized RCP inventory 1b. JRC-HTAP inventory • Case study for Asia Uncertainties are higher the further 140 140 Tg SO2 Tg SO2 120 120 away we get from present-day • Examples of trends in the USA Int. shipping Int. shipping 100 100 Int. aviation Int. aviation conditions 80 REF 80 REF • Integration of emissions, modelling, measurements OECD90 OECD90 60 60 MAF MAF 40 40 Gridded emission distributions for • Constraints from satellites LAM LAM 20 20 ASIA ASIA the past and future are 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 rudimentary. 1c. RCP-3PD scenario 1d. RCP-4.5 scenario 140 140 Tg SO2 Tg SO2 120 120 Int. shipping Int. shipping 100 100 Int. aviation Int. aviation 80 REF 80 REF 60 OECD90 60 OECD90 MAF MAF 40 40 LAM LAM 20 20 ASIA ASIA 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1e. RCP-6.0 scenario 1e. RCP-8.5 scenario 5