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............................ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA .Analysis in Support of the zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA QDR: ........................... for zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA An Overview of U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Analytic Activities Presentation ISMOR September 24,1997 Dr. Jacqueline Henningsen Office of the Secretary of Defense Program Analysis and Evaluation USA SBACKGROUND : ............ i The U.S. Congress in the “The Military Force Structure Review Act of 1996” tasked the Department of Defense to prepare a Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) at the beginning of each Presidential through the year 2005.” zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA administration. “The review is to involve a comprehensive examination of defense strategy, the force structure of the active, guard, and reserve components, force modernization plans, infrastructure, and other elements of the defense program and policies in order to determine and express the defense strategy of the United States and to establish a revised defense program 1

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ant zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ................................. I Procurement Trends DoD Budget Trends - 2003) (1985 FY 1 m Jin const 1997 dollars\ , 1985: $400 billion n f 110 - W. h m m 1997: $250 billion z l g m . ( - \ 2 m. ForceDrawdown s BUR Program \ Defense Program FY 1DDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . V 1997: 1.45 million I 21103 leBB lB0I Boo lS the post-Cold War dividend - - End o f modernization must rebounl ~~~ International Environment zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA National zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA L zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA #.........................*....... .Structuring the Review: QDR Analytic Process: .................................. I Security Strategy Addressing zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Alternative ApproacheslPostures - . + - Force Assessments Resource Implications Overseas Major Theater Technology OBS Infrastructure 8 Aging Presence Wars Migration Savings sma,,sule New PestemPo . initiatives Contingencies ' I

- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Structuringthe Review: . 1 . ; . .

....................................... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Structuring the Review: QDR Organizational zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 r- !' Overview: ....................................... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 40 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA la 120 5 100 1 M B 10 E, 10 10 6 2 40 - a 20 0 0 w w os os U 99 00 01 02 01 02 U 5

Base Structure zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Real Percentage Change Between 1985 and 2003 Budget Personnel L Force zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 - I cost I 6

c zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I Structuring dhe Review: lnterrrated Paths1 Shape Prepare Respond Smrllmr ---- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ~ __ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I Analvtic-Process:,- Inv.estmentGomDarisonl zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA mm zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 120 120 110 110 Pam 2 kh 1 100 Inr..n*nl zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA $00 . , l n w R " / I - - 00 : zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA \ ' - P 5 80 . - 80 = = . , e 70 . 70 i IW...M."t -. E 60 . 80 e s "mr*d i = 50 . 50 . 40 & ' 40 - 30 30 20 . 20 10 - 10 0 r 7

I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA QDRForce 1 Current Force 1 1 6 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1r. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . , - Surface Combaz? I RT /I Force Sbrr I I I Presewes combat Dower with a leaner force 1 IQDR Report: EndStrennthSedudionsl End Strength 1989 Total protection of zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA QOL programs in QDR 1 Extension of transition support programs 1 8

ReDort: zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Initiatives1 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA k D R 'Modernization -. Expand CW zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I mard Amy's Force XXI Digitization I I BW protedion Secure robust but focused modemiration to implement new vision of future warfare I I I - Loglsticsmengineering - Headquarters streamlining I ' -Additional outsourcing i Fundamentally reengineer for the long-term - Defense Reform Task Force to report in fall 1997 ~- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA II I - Reexamine oraanizational structure for future ~ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 leregulate through removal of legislative and regulatory obstacles _ _ _ ._ ___ I' 9

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