ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 09, 2023 28 likes •228 views

ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT UNESCO UNESCO - IHE, Institute for Water Education IHE, Institute for Water Education Delft, The Netherlands Delft, The Netherlands 1 Focus on coastal

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ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT ZAHRAH N. MUSA, IOANA POPESCU, ARTHUR MYNETT

UNESCO UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education

IHE, Institute for Water Education Delft, The Netherlands Delft, The Netherlands

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Focus on coastal areas Focus on coastal areas

  • f world's population lives –UN

within km of the coast

  • high coastal population growth

high economic productivity

  • high economic productivity
  • economic hubs of their countries (e.g.

Rotterdam, Mumbai, Lagos, Guangzhou, etc)

Low elevation Gentle slopes Gentle slopes

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Focus on coastal areas Focus on coastal areas

Climate change

  • Rise in atmospheric temperature
  • Rise in sea surface temperature

Consequences of climate change

  • Global warming
  • Global warming
  • Change in precipitation patterns
  • Increase/decrease
  • Increased frequency of floods
  • Rise in sea levels
  • Increased frequency of storm surges
  • Cyclones
  • Flooding
  • Flooding
  • Intrusion of sea salts
  • Inundation

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Focus on coastal areas Focus on coastal areas

Inundation from SLR

impeding drainage of river flood waters

  • Loss of dry land

impeding drainage of river flood waters inland movement of the shoreline uplifting the groundwater table

  • Loss of dry land
  • Loss of wetlands
  • Conversion of fresh water regimes to salt water

regimes

  • Loss of natural biodiversity
  • Loss of natural biodiversity
  • creates a need for adaptation

Dry land becomes a wetland, swamp or a part of a river, Dry land becomes a wetland, swamp or a part of a river,

  • cean /sea.

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The low er Niger delta The low er Niger delta

Area ~20,000Km2

http://www.marxist.com/nigeria-congress-2013.htm

20,000 450 km of coastline

Made up of nine states in the southern part of Nigeria Nigeria’s economic hub

rich in oil and gas main source of foreign main source of foreign exchange

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NigerDeltaStates.png

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The low er Niger delta The low er Niger delta

Environmental problems Natural

  • River flooding
  • River flooding (Niger, Imo, Qua Iboe)
  • Erosion due to river and coastal flooding
  • Subsidence

Man-made Man-made

  • Wood logging
  • deforestation
  • Oil spills
  • land loss
  • land loss
  • Contamination of surface water
  • Acid rain from gas flaring
  • corrodes roofing sheets

http://www.nairaland.com/587622/niger-delta-pictures

  • corrodes roofing sheets
  • destroys biodiversity
  • Subsidence from oil and gas extraction

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The Low er Niger Delta The Low er Niger Delta

Hydrology: Rivers, Creeks, Lakes, Creeks, Lakes, Estuaries

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The Low er Niger Delta The Low er Niger Delta

Physical properties

  • Low elevation
  • Low elevation
  • Gentle slope
  • Subsiding due to oil and gas

exploration

  • estimated at 25-125mm/yr
  • estimated at 25-125mm/yr

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The Low er Niger Delta The Low er Niger Delta

Vulnerability to inundation

Method: Modified Bath Tub approach using GIS to map inundation Method: Modified Bath Tub approach using GIS to map inundation from sea level rise SRTM DEM Tidal surface: the longitude, latitude and NigeriaSat1 image tidal surface Tidal surface: the longitude, latitude and water levels of 15 tide gauges located in the Niger delta.

  • Interpolate a raster

tidal surface projected SLR values

  • Rahmstorf predicted

values

  • Interpolate a raster

values

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR inundation process Total surface area= 23,623.4km2

  • Subset from NigeriaSat1 image

SLR values SLR values

  • 2030 = 0.12m- 0.41m
  • 2050 = 0.23m - 0.65m

Tidal surface+ SLR = new water level New water level – SRTM value = inundated area New water level – SRTM value = inundated area

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR only inundation extents SLR only inundation extents

  • 0.12m by 2030 = 536.6km2
  • = 2.3%

.

  • = 2.3% of the total surface area.
  • 0.41m by 2030 = 619.2 km2
  • 0.41m by 2030 = 619.2 km2
  • = 2.6% of the total surface area.

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR only inundation extents

  • 0.23m by 2050=

562.8km2 562.8km2

  • = 2.4% of the total surface

area. area.

  • 0.65m by 2050=

763.6

2

763.6km2

  • = 3.2% of the total surface

area.

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area.

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR plus Subsidence inundation extents Land subsidence value = 25mm/yr

  • 2030 =0.75m, and 2050= 1.25m
  • 2030 =0.75m, and 2050= 1.25m

Land subsidence value +SLR + surface grid = new water level grid = new water level New water level – SRTM = inundated area

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR plus Subsidence inundation extents

  • SLR (0.12m) + subsidence (0.75m ) by

2030

  • inundation extent = 791.8km2
  • inundation extent = 791.8km2
  • = 3.4% of the total surface area.
  • SLR (0.41m) + subsidence (0.75m) by
  • SLR (0.41m) + subsidence (0.75m) by

2030,

  • inundation extent = 1090.3km2
  • inundation extent = 1090.3km
  • 4.6% of the total surface area.

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

SLR plus Subsidence inundation extents

  • SLR (0.23m)+ subsidence (1.25m) by 2050
  • inundation extent = 1,511km2
  • = 6.4% of the total surface area.
  • = 6.4% of the total surface area.
  • SLR (0.65m) + subsidence (1.25m) by 2050
  • inundation extent =1,759.5km2
  • inundation extent =1,759.5km2
  • = 7.5% of the total surface area.

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

Implication

  • 2.3 to 3.2% of the Niger delta could be

inundated due to SLR by 2050. inundated due to SLR by 2050.

  • 3.4 to 7.5% of the Niger delta could be
  • 3.4 to 7.5% of the Niger delta could be

inundated due to SLR and land subsidence by

2050.

Places affected…

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

Places affected….

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Vulnerability to inundation Vulnerability to inundation

Population density…

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Conclusion Conclusion Conclusion Conclusion

The Niger delta is vulnerable to inundation by SLR

  • 2.3 to 3.2% could be inundated due to SLR by 2050.
  • 2.3 to 3.2% could be inundated due to SLR by 2050.

Land subsidence will exacerbate the inundation effect of SLR

  • n inland areas
  • n inland areas
  • 3.4 to 7.5% could be inundated due to SLR + land

subsidence by 2050.

Based on projected population census data, 460,000 to

2.4 million people could be affected by SLR by the year 2050. 2.4 million people could be affected by SLR by the year 2050.

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Email: z.musa@unesco-ihe.org

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