What’s Measured: Progress, Indictors and Regional Planning for Adaptation September 13, 2016 Travis J. Allan Halifax, ICLEI Livable Cities Forum 2016 DeMarco Allan LLP travis@demarcoallan.com +1.416.417.1195 1
Overview • Context: adaptation and regional planning in the GTHA (Ontario) • Legal basis for adaptation and indicators • Examples of adaptation indicators • Considerations Report: “ Research and Information Gathering on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation ” released January 2016 available at climateconnections.ca 2
Indicators Can • Support development of better policy • Bring rigor to policy development and amendment • Help separate “trendy” ideas from effective ideas • Create a culture of accountability • Set the stage for measureable improvement …but can also • Be poorly designed and/or misleading • Distract from important ideas/changes that aren’t easily measureable • Create political and communications challenges 3
Context: adaptation and regional planning in the GTHA (Ontario) 4
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Legal basis for adaptation and indicators 6
Adaptation in the plan Growth Plan (2016 proposed amendments) s. 4.2.10 Climate Change 1. Upper- and single-tier municipalities will develop policies in their official plans to identify actions that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change adaptation goals, aligned with the Ontario Climate Change Strategy, 2015 and Action Plan. 2. In planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address the impacts of climate change, municipalities are encouraged to: a) develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve resilience to climate change through land use planning, planning for infrastructure, including transit and energy, and the conservation objectives in policy 4.2.9.1; b) develop greenhouse gas inventories for transportation, buildings, waste management and municipal operations; and c) establish municipal interim and long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets that support provincial targets and reflect consideration of the goal of net- zero communities, and monitor and report on progress made towards the achievement of these targets. 7
Indicators in the plan Growth Plan (2016 proposed amendments) s.5.2.6 • The Minister will develop a set of performance indicators to measure the implementation of the policies in this Plan. The Minister will monitor the implementation of this Plan, including reviewing performance indicators concurrent with any review of this Plan. • Municipalities will monitor and report on the implementation of this Plan's policies within their municipality, in accordance with any reporting requirements, data standards and any other guidelines that may be issued by the Minister. • The Minister may require municipalities and conservation authorities to provide data and information to the Minister, as collected in accordance with policy 5.2.6.2, to demonstrate progress made towards the implementation of this Plan. Greenbelt Plan, the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and the Niagara Escarpment Plan: similar. 8
Examples of adaptation indicators 9
Types of indicators • Process-based: • Evaluate implementation of enabling environment needed to achieve climate resilient objectives • # of municipalities that have implemented a Community Energy Plan • % of Greenbelt covered by completed watershed plans • Outcome-based: • Monitor effectiveness of policies and activities based on measureable data • increased drainage capacity to cope with more intense precipitation events • % of permeable and non-permeable surface area in given area • % of houses with sump-pumps/disconnected downspouts • Ha of agricultural land 10
Policy direction Indicators/Metric Examples of use Target/Threshold Rationale/Intent Data source(s) Natural Cover: # of Metro Vancouver minimum of 30 per Protected natural Provincial government; #5 - Protect and enhance green hectares of protected regional growth cent, and preferably areas provide conservation strategy – Baseline infrastructure natural area and % of 50 per cent or more, stormwater infiltration authorities; through land-use total GGH regional Annual Report of watershed areas and groundwater municipalities land base that is recharge; also planning and protected natural area support urban through the use of offsets and other containment crediting % urban forest cover City of Vancouver 40% tree canopy Urban forests mitigate Municipal urban within the built Climate Adaptation cover urban heat island forestry departments; boundary of urban Strategy impacts and control remote sensing data areas in the GGH stormwater run-off Local food supply: Near term: no loss of Local agricultural Statistics Canada; Total area of farmland in the GGH production fosters TRCA Living City Ontario Ministry of agricultural lands in resilience to price Report Card Long term: A greater Agriculture, Food and the GGH spikes related to than 5% increase in Rural Affairs extreme weather agricultural land events (i.e. persistent drought, flooding) N/A – No thresholds Municipalities – Parks Local food supply: ImagineCalgary Plan Urban agriculture Total agricultural area identified through creates resilience by and recreation within GGH urban research (although reducing stormwater departments boundaries (i.e. research suggests run-off and heat community gardens that City of Toronto island impacts and urban farms) could produce 10% of the fresh vegetables Urban agriculture currently consumed) provides opportunities for organic waste diversion and reduced food kilometres travelled 11
Policy direction Indicators/Metric Examples of use Target/Threshold Rationale/Intent Data source(s) TRCA Living City 2016: Urban area Effective stormwater Conservation #6 - Require Municipal Report Card with stormwater management controls authorities improved stormwater stormwater management : % management reduce the potential management GGH urban areas increases to 35% for surface water through protection, with adequate flooding associated enhancement stormwater with extreme Long term: Greater management controls precipitation events and/or construction than 80% of urban (i.e. designed for both of new permeable areas have surfaces, run-off water quantity and stormwater control and LID quality control) management City of Vancouver Urbanizing Permeability of Permeability of the Aerial photographs and Climate Adaptation watersheds should urban area: % of urban area affects the satellite imagery Strategy maintain less than permeable surfaces amount and speed of 10% impervious land within serviced urban surface water run-off, cover boundary and thereby erosion and flooding Increased Already urbanized permeability will watersheds should enhance urban strive for 25-30% resilience to extreme impervious land cover precipitation events Implementation of City of Vancouver 20% of flat roof area Green roofs provide Aerial photographs; property-level green Climate Adaptation appears to be a multiple benefits, municipal building Strategy feasible mid-term including mitigation of permitting agencies infrastructure solutions: Area (ft 2 ) target given urban heat island of green or white experience elsewhere effect, retention of roofs in the GGH (or stormwater and by upper tier enhanced energy municipality) efficiency 12
Policy direction Indicators/Metric Examples of use Target/Threshold Rationale/Intent Data source(s) TRCA Living City 2016: No increase in Flood vulnerable Conservation #7 - Provide tools Flood risk that encourage management: # of Report Card the # of flood- clusters represent authorities; provincial effective and flood vulnerable vulnerable clusters; concentrated areas of government collaborative clusters reduction in the people and property adaptation planning Flood risk City of Vancouver number of structures at-risk during extreme management: # of Climate Adaptation at risk weather events by local and regional people living in flood Strategy Long term: >30% governments, vulnerable areas reduction in # of including updated Flood risk City of Vancouver flood-vulnerable climate impacts management: $ Climate Adaptation clusters (in TRCA value of property at- Strategy research, updated jurisdiction); reduction risk in flood floodplain mapping, in the number of future climate vulnerable areas structures at risk scenarios and requirements to N/A – No specific develop climate Critical services/ City of Vancouver Continued operation Periodic survey/audit of change risk emergency Climate Adaptation thresholds identified of critical services public sector building inventories and preparedness: % of Strategy through research during extreme asset managers adaptation municipalities, universi weather events implementation ties, school boards reduces vulnerability plans and hospitals (MUSH) and supports sector facilities with recovery, particularly back-up power of vulnerable sufficient to remain populations functional over and above life safety requirements 13
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