Young peoples housing options and future welfare: the 2020 vision - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Young people’s housing options and future welfare: the 2020 vision realised?

Peter Mackie

Cardiff University MackieP@cardiff.ac.uk

• The financial crisis of 2007/8 and subsequent policy decisions resulted in a

particularly challenging set of circumstances for young people: employment, housing, welfare, education

• In relation to housing, the PRS has increasingly been the tenure of choice

given difficulties in entering owner‐occupation or social renting

• However, this general context impacted differently on young people with

different resources and preferences

• The 2020 report (Clapham et al. 2014) set out the changing nature of young

people’s housing pathways and identified pressing concerns

Context

Part I The 2020 housing pathway predictions Part II The 2020 vision realised? Part III Future welfare

Content

Part I The 2020 housing pathway predictions

(Clapham et al. 2012, 2014)

• Stay at Home to Owners

Remain in family home into early thirties in order to save for deposit.

Ownership pathways

When I first moved back people would say ‘oh you’re still living with your parents?’ and I was like ‘yeah I’m sorry I’m 28 and I live at home with my parents.’ I don’t enjoy telling people that I still live at home but I also don’t care what people think but then I also do care... So what I’m doing in the interim is to start saving toward a deposit for a home, so that by the time I’ve met someone and we’re ready to do that (buy a home) I have money put away toward it already.

• Two Parent Families

Leave home and enter owner occupation. Compared to early nesters, these young people spend longer living alone or as couples before starting a family.

Ownership pathways

I left my parents home when I got married. We moved into a flat which we rented... then I was offered a job elsewhere so we moved for that job, and moved into that house, which was rented... After 4 months of the 6 month tenancy we were given two months notice, as the landlord wanted to take possession of the house himself... As you can tell we’ve moved house quite a lot. I think five times in four years of marriage. We would just really like to stay here where we are for a little while… we’d like to buy a house... Not sure if that will happen any time soon, what with needing the deposit and house prices still being too high for my liking.

• Stay at Home to Owners

Remain in family home into early thirties in order to save for deposit.

• Two Parent Families

Leave home and enter owner occupation. Compared to early nesters, these young people spend longer living alone or as couples before starting a family.

• Early Nesters

Similar to two parent families but early nesters leave home and start a family far earlier.

• Dual Income, No Kids Owners

Leave parental home, enter shared accommodation in PRS, then form couple and buy.

Ownership pathways

• Young professional renters

Leave the parental home into shared PRS housing, often for Higher Education. Most stay in the PRS until they are 30.

Private renting pathways

• In the Social Queue

Remain in family home into early thirties and then exit into their own social rented tenancies.

• Lone Parents

Single mothers who leave home and enter their own social rented accommodation, often after having children.

Social renting pathways

You’re not stable, like I know I’ve got that for life unless I do something wrong, but with private they can turf you out whenever they want and it’s not your own. I know the council isn’t, but you can decorate it however you want and you can do what you want.

• In the Social Queue

Remain in family home into early thirties and then exit into their own social rented tenancies.

• Lone Parents

Single mothers who leave home and enter their own social rented accommodation, often after having children.

• Social Renting Families

Leave home and enter social rented sector. Most are in couples with children.

• Chaotic

Housing pathways are marked by repeated entry and exit into social rented sector and

• PRS. High levels of homelessness.

Social renting pathways

• Many more young people constrained to the PRS
• Particular concern about families, and those following a chaotic pathway

who will be vulnerable in the PRS

• Concerns about vulnerability relate to:

‐ Security of tenure ‐ Suitability/standards ‐ Affordability

Summary of the key 2020 pathway predictions

Part II The 2020 vision realised?

(Shelter Cymru and You Gov, 2013/14)

More young people in the PRS

10 20 30 40 50 60 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Percentage of households in PRS Source: English Housing Survey, Table FA1201 (S106) ‐ Age of household reference person by tenure

Task

• Put your hand up if you lived (spent time) in the PRS and felt

constrained/trapped ie. it wasn’t your chosen tenure

Young people and the PRS: Constrained choices

Constrained to the PRS

• Few young people (18‐34) in the PRS claimed that it was their preferred

choice (11‐13%)

Constrained within the PRS?

• By contrast, 75% of 25‐34 year olds agreed they had a choice about the

private rented home they moved into.

Young people and the PRS: Constrained choices

(In)security of tenure

• Fewer than 7% of young people held contracts of greater than 12 months
• 46% of 25‐34 year olds in the PRS held month by month contracts or had no

written contract

Anticipated rental duration

• Only 20% of 25‐34 year olds expected to rent for less than 2 years.
• Nearly a quarter of 25‐34 year olds expected to rent for between 2 and <5 years
• Approximately 30% of 18‐24 year olds expected to rent for 5 years or more

Desired policy changes

• 67% of 25‐34 year olds agreed that private renting would be improved if they

could stay in the tenancy for up to 5 years with predictable rents

Young people and the PRS: Security of tenure

Accommodation standards/repairs

• Nearly one quarter of young people aged 18‐24 left their previous PRS

accommodation due to poor conditions

• 4 in 5 young people aged 18‐24 had experienced problems with damp in

the PRS

• 2 in 5 young people aged 18‐24 reported that their health or their child’s

health had been affected due to a landlord not dealing with repairs and poor conditions

Young people and the PRS: Suitability & standards

Costs of moving (18‐24 year olds)

Young people and the PRS: Affordability

Rental costs (18‐24 year olds)

Young people and the PRS: Affordability

Part III Future welfare

Caveat and caution

• A focus on:

I] the PRS II] The most vulnerable

• This is not to deny the importance of social housing supply and interventions in

homeownership

Future welfare

Security

• Scottish proposals for PRS reform: Tenancies cannot roll over for a duration less than

the original tenancy (but minimum term is still 6 months & short NTQ for ASB)

• Incoming Welsh legislation: Removes the ‘six month moratorium’ which currently

protects tenants from eviction during the first six months of their tenancy. Private landlords can offer tenancies with no fixed term at all.

• A major opportunity for fundamental reform missed

Future welfare

Suitability/standards

• Retaliatory evictions: Addressed in Renting Homes Bill (Wales) and Tenancies

Reform Bill / Deregulation Bill (England)

• Landlord registration: (Scotland, Wales) and deposit protection schemes (GB)
• Hazards: Standards have been established but deficiencies with enforcement (GB)

Affordability

• Rent control dismissed

Future welfare

Vulnerability and the safety net

• For those who will inevitably fall from the housing system
• Homelessness legislation/safety net improvements in Scotland (removal of

priority need) and Wales (duty to prevent)

• Paradox of increased PRS use as a housing solution in England and Wales

Future welfare

• The PRS will be an important tenure for a range of young people up to and

beyond 2020

• Problems forecast are materialising – we know the problems young people face in

the PRS. We also have concerns that the number of vulnerable young people in the tenure will grow – exacerbating these problems

• And yet policy developments fall short of the fundamental reforms required
• Perhaps the incoming government in Westminster will pursue bold reform and

will learn from the lessons in Scotland and Wales

Conclusion

Thank you │ Diolch yn fawr

Peter Mackie

Cardiff University MackieP@cardiff.ac.uk