Young peoples housing options and future welfare: the 2020 vision - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Young people’s housing options and future welfare: the 2020 vision realised? Peter Mackie Cardiff University MackieP@cardiff.ac.uk

Context  The financial crisis of 2007/8 and subsequent policy decisions resulted in a particularly challenging set of circumstances for young people: employment, housing, welfare, education  In relation to housing, the PRS has increasingly been the tenure of choice given difficulties in entering owner ‐ occupation or social renting  However, this general context impacted differently on young people with different resources and preferences  The 2020 report (Clapham et al. 2014) set out the changing nature of young people’s housing pathways and identified pressing concerns

Content Part I The 2020 housing pathway predictions Part II The 2020 vision realised? Part III Future welfare

Part I The 2020 housing pathway predictions (Clapham et al. 2012, 2014)

Ownership pathways  Stay at Home to Owners Remain in family home into early thirties in order to save for deposit. When I first moved back people would say ‘oh you’re still living with your parents?’ and I was like ‘yeah I’m sorry I’m 28 and I live at home with my parents.’ I don’t enjoy telling people that I still live at home but I also don’t care what people think but then I also do care... So what I’m doing in the interim is to start saving toward a deposit for a home, so that by the time I’ve met someone and we’re ready to do that (buy a home) I have money put away toward it already.

Ownership pathways  Two Parent Families Leave home and enter owner occupation. Compared to early nesters, these young people spend longer living alone or as couples before starting a family. I left my parents home when I got married. We moved into a flat which we rented... then I was offered a job elsewhere so we moved for that job, and moved into that house, which was rented... After 4 months of the 6 month tenancy we were given two months notice, as the landlord wanted to take possession of the house himself... As you can tell we’ve moved house quite a lot. I think five times in four years of marriage. We would just really like to stay here where we are for a little while… we’d like to buy a house... Not sure if that will happen any time soon, what with needing the deposit and house prices still being too high for my liking.

Ownership pathways  Stay at Home to Owners Remain in family home into early thirties in order to save for deposit.  Two Parent Families Leave home and enter owner occupation. Compared to early nesters, these young people spend longer living alone or as couples before starting a family.  Early Nesters Similar to two parent families but early nesters leave home and start a family far earlier.  Dual Income, No Kids Owners Leave parental home, enter shared accommodation in PRS, then form couple and buy.

Private renting pathways  Young professional renters Leave the parental home into shared PRS housing, often for Higher Education. Most stay in the PRS until they are 30.

Social renting pathways  In the Social Queue Remain in family home into early thirties and then exit into their own social rented tenancies.  Lone Parents Single mothers who leave home and enter their own social rented accommodation, often after having children. You’re not stable, like I know I’ve got that for life unless I do something wrong, but with private they can turf you out whenever they want and it’s not your own. I know the council isn’t, but you can decorate it however you want and you can do what you want.

Social renting pathways  In the Social Queue Remain in family home into early thirties and then exit into their own social rented tenancies.  Lone Parents Single mothers who leave home and enter their own social rented accommodation, often after having children.  Social Renting Families Leave home and enter social rented sector. Most are in couples with children.  Chaotic Housing pathways are marked by repeated entry and exit into social rented sector and PRS. High levels of homelessness.

Summary of the key 2020 pathway predictions  Many more young people constrained to the PRS  Particular concern about families, and those following a chaotic pathway who will be vulnerable in the PRS  Concerns about vulnerability relate to: ‐ Security of tenure ‐ Suitability/standards ‐ Affordability

Part II The 2020 vision realised? (Shelter Cymru and You Gov, 2013/14)

More young people in the PRS 60 50 Percentage of households in PRS 40 30 20 10 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Source: English Housing Survey, Table FA1201 (S106) ‐ Age of household reference person by tenure

Young people and the PRS: Constrained choices Task  Put your hand up if you lived (spent time) in the PRS and felt constrained/trapped ie. it wasn’t your chosen tenure

Young people and the PRS: Constrained choices Constrained to the PRS  Few young people (18 ‐ 34) in the PRS claimed that it was their preferred choice (11 ‐ 13%) Constrained within the PRS?  By contrast, 75% of 25 ‐ 34 year olds agreed they had a choice about the private rented home they moved into.

Young people and the PRS: Security of tenure (In)security of tenure  Fewer than 7% of young people held contracts of greater than 12 months  46% of 25 ‐ 34 year olds in the PRS held month by month contracts or had no written contract Anticipated rental duration  Only 20% of 25 ‐ 34 year olds expected to rent for less than 2 years.  Nearly a quarter of 25 ‐ 34 year olds expected to rent for between 2 and <5 years  Approximately 30% of 18 ‐ 24 year olds expected to rent for 5 years or more Desired policy changes  67% of 25 ‐ 34 year olds agreed that private renting would be improved if they could stay in the tenancy for up to 5 years with predictable rents

Young people and the PRS: Suitability & standards Accommodation standards/repairs  Nearly one quarter of young people aged 18 ‐ 24 left their previous PRS accommodation due to poor conditions  4 in 5 young people aged 18 ‐ 24 had experienced problems with damp in the PRS  2 in 5 young people aged 18 ‐ 24 reported that their health or their child’s health had been affected due to a landlord not dealing with repairs and poor conditions

Young people and the PRS: Affordability Costs of moving (18 ‐ 24 year olds)

Young people and the PRS: Affordability Rental costs (18 ‐ 24 year olds)

Part III Future welfare

Future welfare Caveat and caution  A focus on: I] the PRS II] The most vulnerable  This is not to deny the importance of social housing supply and interventions in homeownership

Future welfare Security  Scottish proposals for PRS reform: Tenancies cannot roll over for a duration less than the original tenancy (but minimum term is still 6 months & short NTQ for ASB)  Incoming Welsh legislation: Removes the ‘six month moratorium’ which currently protects tenants from eviction during the first six months of their tenancy. Private landlords can offer tenancies with no fixed term at all.  A major opportunity for fundamental reform missed

Future welfare Suitability/standards  Retaliatory evictions: Addressed in Renting Homes Bill (Wales) and Tenancies Reform Bill / Deregulation Bill (England)  Landlord registration: (Scotland, Wales) and deposit protection schemes (GB)  Hazards: Standards have been established but deficiencies with enforcement (GB) Affordability  Rent control dismissed

Future welfare Vulnerability and the safety net  For those who will inevitably fall from the housing system  Homelessness legislation/safety net improvements in Scotland (removal of priority need) and Wales (duty to prevent)  Paradox of increased PRS use as a housing solution in England and Wales

Conclusion  The PRS will be an important tenure for a range of young people up to and beyond 2020  Problems forecast are materialising – we know the problems young people face in the PRS. We also have concerns that the number of vulnerable young people in the tenure will grow – exacerbating these problems  And yet policy developments fall short of the fundamental reforms required  Perhaps the incoming government in Westminster will pursue bold reform and will learn from the lessons in Scotland and Wales

Thank you │ Diolch yn fawr Peter Mackie Cardiff University MackieP@cardiff.ac.uk