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Writing for Survival, Reading the Signs Christopher Rose Rutgers University, WINLAB Communication Theory Workshop June 24, 2013 1 Physics Envy PHYSICIST Rutgers WINLAB CTW13 C. Rose 2 Physics Envy Communication Engineer/Theorist

  1. 22 Write or Radiate? Is Radiation Better for Broadcast? • Milky Way stellar density 2 . 8 × 10 − 2 stars (LY) − 3 • ( T = 3 o K , ˜ ρ = 10 22 , δ = v = 10 3 ) spherical galaxy, omnidirectional c transmission, Arecibo receiver – D = 10 4 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 11 stars (but Ω > 10 25 ) – D = 10 6 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 17 stars (but Ω > 10 29 ) – D = 10 10 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 29 stars (but Ω > 10 37 ) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  2. 22 Write or Radiate? Is Radiation Better for Broadcast? • Milky Way stellar density 2 . 8 × 10 − 2 stars (LY) − 3 • ( T = 3 o K , ˜ ρ = 10 22 , δ = v = 10 3 ) spherical galaxy, omnidirectional c transmission, Arecibo receiver – D = 10 4 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 11 stars (but Ω > 10 25 ) – D = 10 6 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 17 stars (but Ω > 10 29 ) – D = 10 10 LY: 1 . 17 × 10 29 stars (but Ω > 10 37 ) Visible Universe: D = 1 . 37 × 10 10 LY Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  3. 23 Write or Radiate? Semaphored and Summarized In ... Nature 431, pp.47–49, September 2, 2004 (C. Rose & G. Wright) Web Site: http://www.winlab.rutgers.edu/ ∼ crose/cgi-bin/cosmicP .html Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  4. 24 Nature Perqs Really Chill Perqs! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  5. 24 Nature Perqs Really Chill Perqs! • NPR & BBC radio interviews • NY Times article by Overbye! • NY Times Editorial!! • Cocktail party banter!!! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  6. 25 Nature Perqs Not So Chill Perqs Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  7. 25 Nature Perqs Not So Chill Perqs Counsel: Dr. Rose, what term of address would you prefer? Rose: “Chris” is fine. Counsel: These are formal proceedings, so I’ll use “Dr. Rose,” okay? Rose: OK. Counsel: Are you a professor of E&CE at Rutgers University? Rose: Yes. Counsel: Did you receive all your degrees from M.I.T.? Rose: Yes. Counsel: Are you an expert in wireless communications? Rose: For this trial’s subject matter, yes. Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  8. 25 Nature Perqs Not So Chill Perqs Counsel: Dr. Rose, what term of address would you prefer? Rose: “Chris” is fine. Counsel: These are formal proceedings, so I’ll use “Dr. Rose,” okay? Rose: OK. Counsel: Are you a professor of E&CE at Rutgers University? Rose: Yes. Counsel: Did you receive all your degrees from M.I.T.? Rose: Yes. Counsel: Are you an expert in wireless communications? Rose: For this trial’s subject matter, yes. Counsel: Dr. Rose, do you talk to space aliens? Rose: (WTH?!?!?!?!).... Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  9. 26 Big Question Question More Reasonable Questions Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  10. 26 Big Question Question More Reasonable Questions Do I READ alien letters? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  11. 26 Big Question Question More Reasonable Questions Do I READ alien letters? Why communicate AT ALL? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  12. 27 Howdy Neighbor! Alien Psychology 101 Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  13. 27 Howdy Neighbor! Alien Psychology 101 Sociability? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  14. 28 Howdy Neighbor! Hello Exoplanet-ling! IF U CN C THS, join the party! Turn left at Alpha Centauri ... Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  15. 29 Howdy Neighbor! Let Us Help You! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  16. 30 Howdy Neighbor! Hello Universe! Bring technology! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  17. 30 Howdy Neighbor! Hello Universe! Bring technology! (but, please don’t eat us) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  18. 31 Survival Universal (well, galactic) Truth Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  19. 31 Survival Universal (well, galactic) Truth Survival? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  20. 32 Survival OOPS! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  21. 33 Survival OUCH! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  22. 34 Survival RAPTURE! (sorry, I couldn’t resist) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  23. 35 Writing to Survive Interstellar “Evolution” Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  24. 35 Writing to Survive Interstellar “Evolution” SURVIVORS: Those Who Write Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  25. 35 Writing to Survive Interstellar “Evolution” SURVIVORS: Those Who Write GAME OVER: Those Who Don’t Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  26. 35 Writing to Survive Interstellar “Evolution” SURVIVORS: Those Who Write GAME OVER: Those Who Don’t Is Biological Info Transmission SOP? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  27. 36 Incursion HOWTO Seeded Comet? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  28. 37 Incursion HOWTO Micro Ark? Are we THERE YET!?!? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  29. 38 Incursion HOWTO Sorry, (your) Game Over! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  30. 39 Detection Detection Pipe Dream? (50+ Years of SETI) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  31. 39 Detection Detection Pipe Dream? (50+ Years of SETI) Could be, but ... let’s play anyway Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  32. 40 Detection Incursion or Evolution? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  33. 40 Detection Incursion or Evolution? Cambrian explosion – which? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  34. 41 Detection Killjoy Biologists “It’s all one show” –Gerald Joyce Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  35. 41 Detection Killjoy Biologists “It’s all one show” –Gerald Joyce “X → Y? Evolution!” –Biological Dogma Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  36. 42 Detection Can We Detect Ancient Biological Incursions? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  37. 42 Detection Can We Detect Ancient Biological Incursions? I DO NOT KNOW! I might never know! (Plenary talk sales final – Absolutely No Refunds! ) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  38. 43 Detection Can We Detect Future Biological Incursions? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  39. 43 Detection Can We Detect Future Biological Incursions? ET! or EGAD! Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  40. 44 Detection Three Fundamental Questions Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  41. 44 Detection Three Fundamental Questions (A:) How many packages? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  42. 44 Detection Three Fundamental Questions (A:) How many packages? (B:) What’s here today? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  43. 44 Detection Three Fundamental Questions (A:) How many packages? (B:) What’s here today? (C:) How easily/quickly from X → Y? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  44. 45 Detection (A): Package Density: the fake equation N p = Pf e f ℓ f i f c λ p τ p (After Drake – Fermilicious and equally fake) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  45. 45 Detection (A): Package Density: the fake equation N p = Pf e f ℓ f i f c λ p τ p (After Drake – Fermilicious and equally fake) N p : number of parcels floating around P : number of planets f e : fraction potential life-supporting planets f ℓ : fraction that come to life f i : fraction with“intelligent” life f c : fraction with loquacious intelligent life λ p : parcels/year τ p : years parcel survival Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  46. 45 Detection (A): Package Density: the fake equation N p = Pf e f ℓ f i f c λ p τ p (After Drake – Fermilicious and equally fake) N p : number of parcels floating around P : number of planets f e : fraction potential life-supporting planets f ℓ : fraction that come to life f i : fraction with“intelligent” life f c : fraction with loquacious intelligent life λ p : parcels/year τ p : years parcel survival P ≈ 10 11 (John Johnson, CalTech, now Harvard) τ p = 10 8 (“geologic” design, galaxy-spanning @ c/ 1000 ) λ p f e f ℓ f i f c ≈ 1 (loquacity balancing pessimism) Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  47. 45 Detection (A): Package Density: the fake equation N p = Pf e f ℓ f i f c λ p τ p (After Drake – Fermilicious and equally fake) N p : number of parcels floating around P : number of planets f e : fraction potential life-supporting planets f ℓ : fraction that come to life f i : fraction with“intelligent” life f c : fraction with loquacious intelligent life λ p : parcels/year τ p : years parcel survival P ≈ 10 11 (John Johnson, CalTech, now Harvard) τ p = 10 8 (“geologic” design, galaxy-spanning @ c/ 1000 ) λ p f e f ℓ f i f c ≈ 1 (loquacity balancing pessimism) Parcels per star: 3 . 33 × 10 7 Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  48. 46 Detection (B): Biome Survey/Monitor Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  49. 46 Detection (B): Biome Survey/Monitor • Aviation: 2% yearly global CO 2 • Aircraft: 111 kg CO 2 /km • Yearly global CO 2 : 35 . 6 × 10 12 kg Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  50. 46 Detection (B): Biome Survey/Monitor • Aviation: 2% yearly global CO 2 • Aircraft: 111 kg CO 2 /km • Yearly global CO 2 : 35 . 6 × 10 12 kg • Planes Travel: 6 . 4 × 10 9 km/year Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  51. 46 Detection (B): Biome Survey/Monitor • Aviation: 2% yearly global CO 2 • Aircraft: 111 kg CO 2 /km • Yearly global CO 2 : 35 . 6 × 10 12 kg • Planes Travel: 6 . 4 × 10 9 km/year Search Area: ( 1 m scoop) : 6 . 4 × 10 6 km 2 /year Earth surface: 5 . 1 × 10 8 km 2 Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  52. 46 Detection (B): Biome Survey/Monitor • Aviation: 2% yearly global CO 2 • Aircraft: 111 kg CO 2 /km • Yearly global CO 2 : 35 . 6 × 10 12 kg • Planes Travel: 6 . 4 × 10 9 km/year Search Area: ( 1 m scoop) : 6 . 4 × 10 6 km 2 /year Earth surface: 5 . 1 × 10 8 km 2 Not a (too) ridiculous detection problem Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  53. 47 Detection (C): Quantitative Evolution Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  54. 47 Detection (C): Quantitative Evolution Setup: • String (“gene”) set G = { g n } , n = 1 , · · · , N • g n = [ b n 1 , · · · , b n K ] , b i ∈ { A, T, G, C } • Target string T • Evolution (mutation/crossover) operators {M q } Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  55. 47 Detection (C): Quantitative Evolution Setup: • String (“gene”) set G = { g n } , n = 1 , · · · , N • g n = [ b n 1 , · · · , b n K ] , b i ∈ { A, T, G, C } • Target string T • Evolution (mutation/crossover) operators {M q } Questions: • Coverage: ∃ sequence {M 1 , M 2 , · · · M Q } s.t. T ∈ M Q · · · M 1 [ G ] ? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  56. 47 Detection (C): Quantitative Evolution Setup: • String (“gene”) set G = { g n } , n = 1 , · · · , N • g n = [ b n 1 , · · · , b n K ] , b i ∈ { A, T, G, C } • Target string T • Evolution (mutation/crossover) operators {M q } Questions: • Coverage: ∃ sequence {M 1 , M 2 , · · · M Q } s.t. T ∈ M Q · · · M 1 [ G ] ? • Likelihood: what G → T paths are preferred? How long/short? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  57. 48 Detection Is This Communication Theory? Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

  58. 48 Detection Is This Communication Theory? Information Delivery and Control Rutgers WINLAB CTW’13 C. Rose

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