[PDF] - Wind Damage to Commercial Properties A Review of the Last 3 Years of PDF Document

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DANGODARA CONSULTING, PA Presents:

Wind Damage to Commercial Properties

Parthiv Dangodara, PE Risk Engineering Specialist pdangodara@gmail.com

A Review of the Last 3 Years of Events

Dangodara Consulting, PA

Wind Damage to Commercial Properties

A Review of the Last 3 Years of Events

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Loss Statistics 2016 – 18 Hurricane Seasons Losses in review Lessons Learned

Historical loss stats
Insurance losses
Hurricane Matthew
Hurricane Harvey
Hurricane Irma
Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Michael
Lessons Learned and observations

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DISASTER TYPE NUMBER OF EVENTS PERCENT FREQUENCY CPI- ADJUSTED LOSSES ($B) % OF TOTAL LOSSES AVERAGE EVENT COST ($B) DEATHS Tropical Cyclone 44 17.30% $938.20 54.70% $22.30 6,502 Drought 26 10.20% $249.10 14.50% $9.60 2,993 Severe Storm 110 43.30% $241.40 14.10% $2.20 1,640 Flooding 32 12.60% $126.20 7.40% $4.40 555 Wildfire 16 6.30% $80.40 4.70% $5.00 344 Winter Storm 17 6.70% $49.20 2.90% $2.90 1,048 Freeze 9 3.50% $30.40 1.80% $3.40 162

US Weather Catastrophe Losses 1980- 2019 (CPI Adjusted)

The Wind Hazard

Source: NOAA

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Name Disaster Type Total Cost ($B) Deaths Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) Tropical Cyclone 168.8 1833 Hurricane Harvey (August 2017) Tropical Cyclone 130.0 89 Hurricane Maria (September 2017) Tropical Cyclone 93.6 2981 Hurricane Sandy (October 2012) Tropical Cyclone 73.5 159 Hurricane Irma (September 2017) Tropical Cyclone 52.0 97 Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) Tropical Cyclone 50.2 61 U.S. Drought/Heatwave (Summer 1988) Drought 44.4 454 Midwest Flooding (Summer 1993) Flooding 37.7 48 Hurricane Ike (September 2008) Tropical Cyclone 36.6 112 U.S. Drought/Heatwave (2012) Drought 33.9 123

Top 10 US Weather Disasters 1980-2019 (CPI Adjusted for 2019)

The Wind Hazard

Source: NOAA, III

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Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the U.S., 1980-2018 (Insured property losses per state)

Source: NOAA, III

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Loss Events in the U.S., 1980-2018 (Number of relevant events by peril)

Source: NOAA, III

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Life: 9/28 – 10/10/2016
First Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2007
2nd Hurricane to impact FL in 2016 (Hermine), after 11 yr. drought.
Est. $10B+ in losses in the US

Losses: Loss summaries were categorized by the following cause types:

Design

(Preventable)

Workmanship

(Preventable)

Materials

(Preventable)

Maintenance

(Preventable)

Normal Wind Loss

(WNLE) (Not Preventable)

2016 Matthew | 11 year drought to FL impact ends

Dangodara Consulting, PA

Description

Circa 1970s 36,000 sq. ft. store located in a typical strip shopping center located 1,800 ft. from

the Atlantic Ocean.

The eye of Matthew passed NNW about 40 miles to the east as a Category 3 hurricane.
Wind gust speeds (3 sec) at the site were up to 80-90 mph.
Roof is a modified bitumen and gravel on built-up roof over ISO insulation layer mechanically

attached to steel deck, at a rate of about one or 2.5 ft.² in the field and the perimeters. SFs: C=1.56

No parapet on the west side; there is a gutter on the west side supported by gutter clips about

every 44 inches.

The north, east and south sides have 1 to 2 ft. high parapets.

2016 Matthew FL Losses | Location 1

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Damage

Damage originated from the West.
The gutter and/or flashing may have been loose and led to

the roof covering peeling back.

The result was about 7,000 sq. ft. loss of roof covering.
No window/door damage.
Proper gutter/flashing securement would have resulted in

no loss.

Loss estimates at this time are roughly $0.5M PD, $1.2M

S&S, total $1.7 M PD and $1.75 M TE

2016 Matthew FL Losses | Location 1

Dangodara Consulting, PA

Description

Circa 2000 building located in a typical strip shopping center located 5.8

miles from the Atlantic Ocean.

The eye of Matthew passed NNW about 48 miles to the east as a Category

2-3 hurricane. Wind gust speeds (3 sec) at the site were up to 70-80 mph.

The roof is a fully adhered EPDM membrane to iso. insulation that is

mechanically attached to steel deck on steel joists roof. Damages

Some metal coping was displaced on the east wall.
Some holes were created in the roofing from windborne debris.
The EPDM membrane reportedly detached from the insulation throughout

the roof for a total of approximately 30% of the roof area.

No roofing actually blew off and leaking reportedly did not occur.
The roof covering delaminated in 30% of the area; 100% roof cover will

need to be replaced. $1.375 M PD & $0 BI.

$2.5K Uplift Tests would likely have found the adhesion problem.

2016 Matthew FL Losses | Location 2

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2016 Matthew FL Losses | Summary

$7.6M of the

losses were easily preventable

Flashing securement
Flood protection
EIFS damage
Rooftop equipment securement
Roof Drainage overflow

scuppers were roofed over

$5.9M of the losses

were preventable with thorough inspections

Workmanship and Maintenance

issues for windows & Doors

Confirm fully adhered SPMs

are well bonded; Uplift Testing

$0.8M of the losses are deemed normal

with no practical recommendations

T h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e p h y s i c a l l o s s e s we r e preventable .

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Most active season since 2005, 7th most active season on record, 5th most since 1851 Ended 12 year drought of major landfall to continental US Four Cat 4, with two reaching Cat 5, Irma and Maria Three Cat 4 landfalls in the same year – 1st time in US history Four US landfalls Jose, along with Irma, marked the first time two Atlantic hurricanes had maximum sustained winds of at least 150 mph Economic losses could be as high as USD $250-300B and total insurance industry insured damages could range from $80-130B

Courtesy of US National Weather Service 12

2017 Hurricane Season | One for the Record Books

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2017 HARVEY | More of a Flood Event

Source: NOAA

Harvey (red boundary) 100-yr FEMA (blue) High TIV exposure outside of FEMA but inside of Harvey

Harvey made landfall as Cat 4 near Rockport, TX.
1st Cat 4 to make landfall in US since Charley in 2004.
Produced 51 in. of rain and 27 trillion gallons of rain in 6 days, much

more than the expected 100-yr floods in TX.

Many river streams experienced more than 500-yr floods.
FEMA maps are outdated.

– 50% of maps are over 10 years old. – 49% are less than 5 yrs old. – Several cases where updated maps failed quality control checks. – These maps were updated with old rainfall data. – Recent work by NOAA found that rainfall rates used in the Texas maps are underestimated. – NOAA is currently updating rainfall data in TX which will significantly increase rainfall rates in Houston which can lead to significant changes in the FEMA maps.

A study showed that half of the insurance claims in Houston were for

properties outside the mapped flood plain.

In some parts of Texas, the rate was as high as 80%.
Overall losses of about $126B.

Dangodara Consulting, PA

2017 IRMA | It Could have Been Worse

Life: 8/30 – 9/12/2017
Strongest Cat 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin.
Irma spent 3 days as a Cat 5 – the longest known.
Longest period of winds more than 185 mph ever (37 hours).
6.3 M people ordered to evacuate in FL, likely the largest in history.
After an 11 yr. drought, the 3rd hurricane to impact FL in 2 years since

2016 (Hermine, Matthew).

For the 1st time in 100 years, its landfall was the 2nd Cat 4 hurricane

landfall in the same year.

Landfall in Cudjoe Key, FL as a Cat 4 (barely) storm and again a day

later in Marco Island, FL as a Cat 3.

The size of the tropical storm force wind area was larger than FL.
1.3 M people without power.
Est. $50.5B in losses in the US. The 5th costliest Atlantic hurricane

in history – but could have been worse

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2017 MARIA | Extra Factors Exacerbated Losses

Source: NOAA

Maria is the 2nd strongest hurricane ever to hit Puerto Rico, behind only the

1928 San Felipe Segundo hurricane. In that sense it was a ~50 year event.

Puerto Rico was battered by heavy rain from Irma and Maria within a span of

2 weeks, causing extensive flooding and damage to infrastructure, power and transmission lines.

Irma & Maria resulted in a cascade of consequences resulting in significant

increased proportions of loss.

Significantly increased rebuilding costs & Business Interruption (BI) was a big

surprise due to factors such as:

Poor infrastructure
Limited accessibility to the damaged areas
Socio-economic condition
Non-availability of material and labor
Economic demand surge – increased cost of labor and materials as demand

for repair exceeds supply

Claims inflation – Increased cost due to insurer’s ability to fully adjust claims
Cat models didn’t completely capture loss amplification for hurricanes like

Maria as the impact of large scale infrastructure damage is not included.

Maria’s losses are $90B with $20 – 30B in insured losses.

Dangodara Consulting, PA

2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned

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Expected:

The majority of the physical losses were preventable,
ften with simple fixes.

– Flashing/nailer securement – Building to accurate Flood levels or protection – EIFS damage – Rooftop equipment securement – Windows & Doors water infiltration continues to be a problem – Dock doors need to be secured – Confirm roofs are well bonded; Uplift Testing – Standing seam roofs poor performance – Adhered Single-ply membranes – Window breakage – Window leakage

Installed flood defenses after 2001 Tropical Storm Allison

performed well during Harvey

2017 Hurricane Season Lessons Learned | Summary

Not Expected:

Flood risks outside of known flood zones need to

be evaluate more closely as many FEMA maps are outdated. Urban flooding and smaller drainage ways not mapped by FEMA can and did flood

Flood Emergency Response Plans (FERP’s) need

to be consistently established at flood exposed locations

Better evaluation of infrastructure and electrical

grid is needed to determine contributing factors to extended power outages and what guidance should be given going forward

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3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall behind 1935 Labor Day and 1969 Camille. Strongest storm by wind speed since Andrew. Rapid intensification from a Cat 1 to 4 in 2 days. Landfall nearly Cat 5 (155 mph) near Mexico Beach, FL 14 ft. storm surge. Michael losses are ~$25B with ~$6.2B in insured losses.

2018 Hurricane Michael

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Courtesy of NOAA

Dangodara Consulting, PA

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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, NOAA

The eye of Michael passed

NNE about 7 miles to the east as a Category 3 hurricane.

Wind gust speeds (3 sec) at

the site were up to 125-135 mph.

Design wind speeds (3 sec)

at the site is 130 mph.

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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Patient Tower Roof is 2010 TPO adhered to coverboard over tapered iso insulation. Uplift testing done in 2017 – PASSED. (F: 77, C: 195 psf) 4 to 5 ft. high parapets.

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

Dangodara Consulting, PA

West Tower Roof is 2002 Gravel BUR adhered to a concrete roof deck. Uplift testing done in 2017 –

PASSED. (F: 74,

C: 187 psf) No parapets.

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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33 3 33

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

Dangodara Consulting, PA

Materials Management Building Roof is 1987 Standing Seam Roof. Walls are Metal lath and plaster on steel framing. 1 to 5 ft. high parapets.

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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Materials Management Building

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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Dangodara Consulting, PA

Building 97 Roof is 1997 Gravel BUR with a base sheet mechanically attached to LWIC. Uplift testing done in 2017 – FAILED. (F: 60, C: 45 psf) No parapets.

2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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Building 97

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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Medical Office Building

Building is 1986
Roof is ~<10 yr. old TPO fully

adhered.

Walls are EIFS on steel framing.
4 to 5 ft. high EIFS parapets.

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Michael – Bay Medical

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2018 Hurricane Matthew – Bay County Schools

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2018 Hurricane Matthew

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Lessons (Re-)Learned: The majority of the physical losses were preventable, often with simple fixes! Flashing/nailer securement EIFS damage Rooftop equipment securement Windows & Doors water infiltration continues to be a problem Dock doors need to be reinforced/secured Confirm roofs are well bonded; Uplift Testing Adhered Single-ply membranes Standing seam roofs poor performance continues Window protection

2016-18 Hurricane Seasons | Key Takeaways

problem

Dangodara Consulting, PA

Not enough consideration for partially enclosed wind pressure Better material choice & quality control for structural connections/fasteners needed Nailer design and construction needs improvement Parapet wall and soffit wind design/construction often inadequate EIFS systems (still) prone to failures Water infiltration in buildings with many windows Pre-engineered metal buildings envelope and MWFRS continue to perform poorly Holistic design for wind forces on the building envelope needs more consideration. Any weak link in the design will likely fail and propagate to cause other failures. Wind Damage to Commercial Properties | Challenges for Industry

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Dangodara Consulting, PA

Thank You for Your Attendance and Participation!

Parthiv Dangodara, PE

Risk Engineering Specialist DANGODARA CONSULTING, PA pdangodara@gmail.com Desk: 954.424.1291 Cell: 954.668.8077