WELCOME
Quarterly Webinar
Will You Be Retirement Ready?
October 25, 2018
Will You Be Retirement Ready? Quarterly Webinar October 25, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
WELCOME Will You Be Retirement Ready? Quarterly Webinar October 25, 2018 TODAYS SPEAKERS G. Leonard Teitelbaum Chair, RPB Board of Trustees David Baskin President and Founder, Baskin Wealth Management (BWM) Michael Kimmel Executive
WELCOME
October 25, 2018
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
AGENDA
Source: JPMorgan. As of 10/12/2018.
34% 20% 31% 27% 20%
26% 9% 3% 14% 4%
23% 13% 0% 13% 30% 11%
10% 19% 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 S&P 500 Annual Return S&P 500 Largest Drawdown
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018
Description
MLP 45.7% MLP 43.7% Core Bonds 10.3% EM 55.8% REITs 31.5% EM 34.0% REITs 35.9% EM 39.4% Core Bonds 5.2% EM 78.5% MLP 35.9% MLP 13.9% EM 18.2% US Equities 33.6% REITs 30.4% REITs 2.5% MLP 18.3% EM 37.3% US Equities 10.6% US Large and Small Stock Index REITs 26.8% REITs 12.8% REITs 3.7% MLP 44.5% EM 25.6% EAFE 13.5% EM 32.2% MLP 12.7% High Yield
MLP 76.4% REITs 28.5% REITs 8.7% REITs 17.8% MLP 27.6% US Equities 12.6% Core Bonds 0.6% High Yield 17.1% EAFE 25.0% MLP 5.9% Master Limited Partnerships (Pipelines) Index Core Bonds 11.6% Core Bonds 8.4% High Yield
EAFE 38.6% EAFE 20.3% REITs 12.1% EAFE 26.3% EAFE 11.2% MLP
High Yield 58.2% EM 18.9% Core Bonds 7.8% EAFE 17.3% EAFE 22.8% Core Bonds 6.0% US Equities 0.5% US Equities 12.7% US Equities 21.1% High Yield 2.6% High Yield Bonds (Non-Investment Grade Bonds) Index High Yield
High Yield 5.3% MLP
REITs 36.8% MLP 16.7% MLP 6.3% MLP 26.1% Core Bonds 7.0% US Equities
EAFE 31.8% US Equities 16.9% High Yield 5.0% US Equities 16.4% High Yield 7.4% MLP 4.8% EAFE
EM 11.2% High Yield 7.5% REITs 2.3% Real Estate Investment Trust Index US Equities
EM
EM
US Equities 31.1% US Equities 12.0% US Equities 6.1% US Equities 15.7% US Equities 5.1% REITs
REITs 28.6% High Yield 15.1% US Equities 1.0% High Yield 15.8% REITs 2.5% High Yield 2.5% High Yield
REITs 8.6% REITs 5.1% EAFE
Developed Market International Stock Index EAFE
US Equities
EAFE
High Yield 29.0% High Yield 11.1% High Yield 2.7% High Yield 11.9% High Yield 1.9% EAFE
US Equities 28.3% EAFE 7.8% EAFE
MLP 4.8% Core Bonds
EM
EM
Core Bonds 2.7% Core Bonds 3.5% Core Bonds
Diversified US Investment Grade Bond Index EM
EAFE
US Equities
Core Bonds 4.1% Core Bonds 4.3% Core Bonds 2.4% Core Bonds 4.3% REITs
EM
Core Bonds 5.9% Core Bonds 6.5% EM
Core Bonds 4.2% EM
EAFE
MLP
EAFE 1.0% MLP
EM
Emerging Market Stock Index Best Performing Worst Performing
Source: Bloomberg
As of S eptember 30, 2018 1 Y ear 3 Y ear 5 Y ear 10 Y ear 20 Y ear R ussell 1000 Value 9.5% 13.6% 10.7% 9.8% 7.6% R ussell 1000 G rowth 26.3% 20.6% 16.6% 14.3% 7.2% MS C I E AFE Value
8.1% 3.1% 4.5% 5.7% MS C I E AFE G rowth 5.8% 10.3% 5.6% 6.2% 4.6% MS C I E M Value 2.3% 11.6% 2.0% 4.5% 10.0% MS C I E M G rowth
13.0% 5.1% 6.2% 9.5%
Source: Bloomberg 73.3
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 S ep-98 S ep-00 S ep-02 S ep-04 S ep-06 S ep-08 S ep-10 S ep-12 S ep-14 S ep-16 S ep-18
Oil Price / Barrel ($)
2.3%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% S ep-98 S ep-00 S ep-02 S ep-04 S ep-06 S ep-08 S ep-10 S ep-12 S ep-14 S ep-16 S ep-18
Consumer Price Index (YoY, Headline)
January 1, 2018 through September 30, 2018
*Net of investment management fees. **50/50 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through March 31, 2015; 60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through September 30, 2016;
60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg through September 30, 2017; 55/45 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg thereafter.
***Barclays Global Aggregate January 1, 2013 through September 30, 2016, Barclays US Aggregate thereafter.
.
3.3% 3.7% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5%
1.4% 1.3%
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% Capital Appreciation Fund MSCI ACWI IMI Index Appreciation and Income Fund 55% MSCI ACWI IMI/45% Fixed Income Composite** Income Focused Fund Fixed Income Composite*** Capital Preservation Fund FTSE 3 Month T-Bill
January 1, 2013 through September 30, 2018
*50/50 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through March 31, 2015; 60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through September 30, 2016;
60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg through September 30, 2017; 55/45 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg thereafter.
**Barclays Global Aggregate January 1, 2013 through September 30, 2016, Barclays US Aggregate thereafter.
.
9.0% 9.7% 6.0% 6.2% 2.9% 3.9% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Capital Appreciation Fund MSCI ACWI IMI Appreciation & Income Fund 55% MSCI ACWI IMI/45% Fixed Income Composite* Income Focused Fund Fixed Income Composite**
Standard Deviation
January 1, 2018 through August 30, 2018
*Net of investment management fees.
10.5% 10.6% 11.0% 11.0%
0.6% 0.6%
0.8% 0.6%
3.8% 3.8%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% Vanguard S&P 500 Instl Index Fund (VIIIX) S&P 500 Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund (VSMAX) CRSP US Small Cap TR Index Vanguard Developed Mkts Idx Fund (VTMGX) FTSE Developed All Cap ex-U.S. Index Vanguard EM Markets Index Fund (VEAMX) FTSE EM Mkts All Cap China A Inclusion Index Vanguard REIT (VGSNX) Vanguard Spliced Real Estate Index Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund (VBTLX)
Vanguard Int-Term Corp Bond Index (VICSX)
Vanguard ST Inflation-Protected Index (VTAPX)
Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund (VBIRX)
Reform JVI Fund MSCI AC World Index (Net)
New vision: continuing to ‘work’ after retirement Longer lifespans Rising health care costs Focus on adequacy and income
Multiple Sources Readiness Factors Income Replacement Ratio
Longevity
Retirement Income Retirement Standard of Living What You Control Taxable Tax-deferred Tax-advantaged Annuities Social Security Real Assets Salary How much of my income will I need in retirement? Contributions Retirement Age Social Security Age Retirement Budget Asset Allocation
decline (essentials/discretionary)
(health care)
later years
RULE OF THUMB
Consensus RPB Participant
Social Security 30% Retirement Savings 50% Social Security 20% Retirement Savings 60%
KEEP IN MIND: Spending in Retirement doesn’t remain stable
Annual Pre-Retirement In Retirement Gross Income $129,000 $78,180 Social Security1 n/a $25,100 Total Gross Income $129,100 $103,280 Income Replacement Ratio Before Taxes 80%
* For illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual income earned or taxes paid. Consult with an accounting professional to help model your estimated pre- and post-retirement cash flow. Assumptions: 1. Retirement age is 67; Social Security income is 75% of maximum benefit 2. 3% elective deferral contribution 3. Up to 85% of Social Security income is taxed depending on other sources of income 4. Taxable income and taxes don’t include other deductions or exclusions; state tax rate at 6%, parsonage not excludable 5. Assumes rabbi pays social security tax at 12.4% of first $128,400 of gross income
Annual Pre-Retirement In Retirement Gross Income $129,000 $78,180 Social Security1 n/a $25,100 Total Gross Income $129,100 $103,280 Income Replacement Ratio Before Taxes 80% Annual Personage ($50,000) ($50,000) Elective Deferral Retirement Contribution2 ($3,873) n/a Social Security Benefit Tax Adjustment3 n/a ($3,765) Annual Taxable Income4 $75,277 $49,515
Assumptions: 1. Retirement age is 67; Social Security income is 75% of maximum benefit 2. 3% elective deferral contribution 3. Up to 85% of Social Security income is taxed depending on other sources of income 4. Taxable income and taxes don’t include other deductions or exclusions; state tax rate at 6%, parsonage not excludable 5. Assumes rabbi pays social security tax at 12.4% of first $128,400 of gross income * For illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual income earned or taxes paid. Consult with an accounting professional to help model your estimated pre- and post-retirement cash flow.
* For illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual income earned or taxes paid. Consult with an accounting professional to help model your estimated pre- and post-retirement cash flow.
Annual Pre-Retirement In Retirement Gross Income $129,000 $78,180 Social Security1 n/a $25,100 Total Gross Income $129,100 $103,280 Income Replacement Ratio Before Taxes 80% Annual Parsonage ($50,000) ($50,000) Elective Deferral Retirement Contribution2 ($3,873) n/a Social Security Benefit Tax Adjustment3 n/a ($3,765) Annual Taxable Income4 $75,277 $49,515 Monthly Gross Income $10,758 $6,515 Social Security Income1 n/a $2,091 Elective Deferral Retirement Contribution2 ($323) n/a Federal Taxes4 ($721) ($463) State Taxes4 ($626) ($498) Social Security & Medicare Tax5 ($1,483) n/a Medicare Part B Premium n/a ($134) Monthly Take Home Pay $7,606 $7,511 Income Replacement Ratio After Taxes 98.7%
Assumptions: 1. Retirement age is 67; Social Security income is 75% of maximum benefit 2. 3% elective deferral contribution 3. Up to 85% of Social Security income is taxed depending on other sources of income 4. Taxable income and taxes don’t include other deductions or exclusions; state tax rate is 6%, parsonage not excludable 5. Assumes rabbi pays social security tax at 12.4% of first $128,400 of gross income
How might increasing contributions and/or delaying retirement impact the retirement standard of living for these participants?
Participant 1 Participant 2 Participant 3 45 years old 58 years old 64 years old
DESCRIPTION ASSUMPTION Participant Profile Active Retirement Age 67 Life Expectancy 25 years in retirement Income Replacement Target 80% Social Security Benefit Age 67 Social Security Benefit 75% of maximum benefit at full retirement age Annual Inflation Rate (COLA) 2% Annual Salary Increase 3% Investment Return Returns based on allocation and time period*
* See appendix for hypothetical returns
Stay the Course Retirement Age 67 Employee Contribution % 0.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
Income Replacement 63.7% Change vs. Stay the Course
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Retirement Age 67 67 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 2.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 $3,419,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
Projected Income Replacement 63.7% 67.9% Change vs. Stay the Course
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Retirement Age 67 67 67 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 $3,418,000 $3,671,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$504,000 Projected Income Replacement 63.7% 67.9% 71.9% Change vs. Stay the Course
8.2%
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 $3,418,000 $3,671,000 $3,477,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$504,000 $310,000 Projected Income Replacement 63.7% 67.9% 71.9% 68.0% Change vs. Stay the Course
8.2% 4.3%
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 2 Yrs. Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 69 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 $3,418,000 $3,671,000 $3,477,000 $3,813,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$504,000 $310,000 $646,000 Projected Income Replacement 63.7% 67.9% 71.9% 68.0% 73.0% Change vs. Stay the Course
8.2% 4.3% 9.3%
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 2 Yrs.
4% & Delay
Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 69 68 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% Projected Account Balance $3,167,000 $3,418,000 $3,671,000 $3,477,000 $3,813,000 $4,038,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$504,000 $310,000 $646,000 $871,000 Projected Income Replacement 63.7% 67.9% 71.9% 68.0% 73.0% 77.2% Change vs. Stay the Course
8.2% 4.3% 9.3% 13.5%
45 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $330,000 RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Retirement Age 67 Employee Contribution % 3.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
Replacement Ratio 62.4% Change vs. Stay the Course
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Retirement Age 67 67 Employee Contribution % 3.0% 5.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 $2,317,999 Change vs. Stay the Course
Projected Income Replacement Ratio 62.4% 63.7% Change vs. Stay the Course
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Retirement Age 67 67 67 Employee Contribution % 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 $2,317,999 $2,366,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$98,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 62.4% 63.7% 64.8% Change vs. Stay the Course
2.4%
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 Employee Contribution % 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 $2,317,999 $2,366,000 $2,447,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$98,000 $179,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 62.4% 63.7% 64.8% 67.0% Change vs. Stay the Course
2.4% 4.6%
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 3 Yrs. Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 70 Employee Contribution % 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 $2,317,999 $2,366,000 $2,447,000 $2,854,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$98,000 $179,000 $586,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 62.4% 63.7% 64.8% 67.0% 77.2% Change vs. Stay the Course
2.4% 4.6% 14.8%
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 2% Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 3 Yrs.
4% & Delay
Retirement Age 67 67 67 68 70 70 Employee Contribution % 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% Projected Account Balance $2,268,000 $2,317,999 $2,366,000 $2,447,000 $2,854,000 $3,007,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$98,000 $179,000 $586,000 $739,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 62.4% 63.7% 64.8% 67.0% 77.2% 80.1% Change vs. Stay the Course
2.4% 4.6% 14.8% 17.7%
58 years old Saving horizon 33 years (joined RPB at 34; retires at 67) $1.2 million RPB balance* Contributions: 15% employer / 3% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Retirement Age 67 Employee Contribution % 0.0% Projected Account Balance $1,792,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
Replacement Ratio 61.0% Change vs. Stay the Course
64 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $1.4 million RPB balance* Contributions: 13.4% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 4% Retirement Age 67 67 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 4.0% Projected Account Balance $1,792,000 $1,820,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
Projected Income Replacement Ratio 61.0% 61.8% Change vs. Stay the Course
64 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $1.4 million RPB balance* Contributions: 13.4% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Retirement Age 67 67 68 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% Projected Account Balance $1,792,000 $1,820,000 $1,925,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$133,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 61.0% 61.8% 64.6% Change vs. Stay the Course
3.6%
64 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $1.4 million RPB balance* Contributions: 13.4% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 3 Yrs. Retirement Age 67 67 68 69 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Projected Account Balance $1,792,000 $1,820,000 $1,925,000 $2,216.000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$133,000 $424,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 61.0% 61.8% 64.6% 73.4% Change vs. Stay the Course
3.6% 12.4%
64 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $1.4 million RPB balance* Contributions: 13.4% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Stay the Course Increase Contribution 4% Delay Retirement 1 Yr. Delay Retirement 3 Yrs.
4% & Delay
Retirement Age 67 67 68 69 70 Employee Contribution % 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% Projected Account Balance $1,792,000 $1,820,000 $1,925,000 $2,216.000 $2,279,000 Change vs. Stay the Course
$133,000 $424,000 $487,000 Projected Income Replacement Ratio 61.0% 61.8% 64.6% 73.4% 75.1% Change vs. Stay the Course
3.6% 12.4% 14.1%
64 years old Saving horizon 37 years (joined RPB at 30; retires at 67) $1.4 million RPB balance* Contributions: 13.4% employer / 0% employee
*as of 8/30/18
Age Stay the Course Increase Contrib. 2% Increase Contrib. 4% Delay Retirement 1 Year Delay Retirement 2 or 3 Years Maximize Income Replacement Ratio Result
45 64% 68% 72% 68% 73% (2 yrs) 77% (Increase cont. 4%, Delay 1 yr) 13% better 58 62% 64% 65% 67% 77% (3 yrs) 80% (Increase cont. 4%, Delay 3 yrs) 18% better 64 61% Negligible 62% 65% 73% (3 yrs) 75% (Increase cont. 4%, Delay 3 yrs) 14% better
Actions Outcomes
Active Retired
x
x
x
(lower income replacement ratio) x x
x x
x x
KEEP IN MIND: