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WH WHEN N EXP XPER ERTS TS TALK LK, , DO DOES S ANY NYONE ONE LI LIST STEN? EN? THE LIMITS OF EXPERT INFLUENCE ON PUBLIC OPINION ERIC MERKLEY UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTATION FOR THE SPPGA APRIL 10, 2019 PROBLEM Pu

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WH WHEN N EXP XPER ERTS TS TALK LK, , DO DOES S ANY NYONE ONE LI LIST STEN? EN?

THE LIMITS OF EXPERT INFLUENCE ON PUBLIC OPINION

ERIC MERKLEY UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTATION FOR THE SPPGA APRIL 10, 2019

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SLIDE 2

PROBLEM

Pu Publi lic opin inion ion is is far offside fside exper erts s on a wi wide de range ge of is issues es of scie ience ce and econ

  • nom
  • mic

ics

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SLIDE 3

PROBLEM

Why?

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SLIDE 4

PR PROB OBLEM EM #1: : NE NEWS WSROOM OOM BIAS

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SLIDE 5

MEDIA BIAS AND COVERAGE OF EXPERTS

  • Epis

isodi

  • dic

c frami ming ng  little attention to expert consensus

  • Fals

lse e bala lance ce  citation of contrarian experts

  • Conflict

flict  citation of polarizing information sources

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SLIDE 6

ISSUE SELECTION

Liberals Against Experts Mixed/None Conservatives Against Experts Science GMOs; nuclear safety Vaccines Climate change Economics Rent control Trade protectionism; farm support Immigration; Federal Reserve; road pricing

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SLIDE 7

METHODS

  • Manual coding of 3,147 articles
  • Coded for:

Expert message related to consensus (Y/N)

Consensus Cue (Y/N)

‘False balance’ (Y/N)

Polarizing opponents and allies (Y/N)

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SLIDE 8

FINDINGS

1) 1)

Message ages of expe pert t co consensu sus s are ve very y unco commo mon

  • Only 22% of relevant news stories have a message from an expert related to an

area of consensus

  • Rare to have a clear signal of consensus (2%)
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SLIDE 9

EXPERT MESSAGES AS % OF RELEV EVANT ANT COVERAGE

20 40 60 80 % of relevant stories Vaccines Climate change GMOs Federal Reserve Average Immigration Trade Nuclear Power Farm Support Rent Control Tolls Expert Message Consensus

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EXPERT MESSAGES AS % OF TOTAL AL COVERAGE

20 40 60 80 % of relevant stories GMOs Vaccines Climate change Average Federal Reserve Trade Rent Control Nuclear Power Farm Support Tolls Immigration Expert Message Consensus

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FINDINGS

2) 2)

False balance isn’t that common

  • Only 22% of stories have ‘false balance’
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SLIDE 12

PREVALENCE OF ‘FALSE BALANCE’ (%)

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FINDINGS

3) 3)

Bala lance nce tends s to refle lect ct pola larizi izing ng poli litical ical co confli lict ct

  • 42% of stories with a polarizing political opponent
  • 48% of stories have a polarizing ally aligned with the expert community
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SLIDE 14

PREVALENCE OF POLARIZ ARIZING ING SOURCE CES S (%)

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SLIDE 15

PR PROB OBLEM EM #2: : PO POLITICA TICAL L PARTY E Y ELITE TES

WITH DOMINIK STECULA

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OUR ARGUMENT

Parti tisans ans le learned ned their ir posit itio ions ns on c cli limate e sci cience ce from m poli litic ical al eli lites

  • Communicated through the mass media
  • In-group vs. out-group cueing
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SLIDE 17

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are party ty eli lite messages ages in in t the news media ia co correla lated ed wit ith aggregat egate e le leve vels ls of cl clim imate e skepti tici cism sm after er co controll

  • llin

ing g for other r factor ctors? s?

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SLIDE 18

DATA

17 majo jor r news source ces, , 25,0 ,000 0 news storie ies

  • National and regional newspapers
  • Broadcast news (ABC, CBS, NBC)
  • Cable (CNN, Fox, MSNBC)
  • Associated Press
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SLIDE 19

PARTY Y CUES S IN NEWS CONTENT OVER TIME (%)

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ANNUAL (LEFT) AND QUARTERLY (RIGHT) CLIMATE SKEPTICISM

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AGGREGATE POLARIZATION

  • Partisan Climate Change Threat Index (PCCTI) from Carmichael and Brulle

(2017)

  • Quarterly from 2001-2014
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PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT BY PARTY Y (LEFT), POLARI ARIZA ZATION TION (RIGHT)

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FINDINGS

  • Most consistent predictor  messages from Democratic elites
  • Evidence of out-group and (to a lesser extent) in-group cueing for Republican

party supporters

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EFFECT OF PARTY CUE ON CLIMATE SKEPTICISM

  • .1
  • .05

.05 .1 .15 Effects on Linear Prediction

Strong D Weak D Lean D Indep Lean R Weak R Strong R

Democratic Cue

  • .1
  • .05

.05 .1 .15 Effects on Linear Prediction

Strong D Weak D Lean D Indep Lean R Weak R Strong R

GOP Cue

  • .1
  • .0

.05 .1 .15

Strong D Weak D Lean D Indep Lean R Weak R Strong R

Polarization

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SLIDE 25

PROBL OBLEM EM #3 #3: ANT NTI-INT INTELLEC ELLECTU TUAL ALISM ISM

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ANTI-INTELLECTUALISM

Anti-int intel elle lectu ctual alis ism: m: a generalized mistrust of experts and intellectuals rooted in a suspicion of scholarly and intellectual pursuits.

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HYPOTHESIS

Anti-int intel elle lectu ctual alis ism m li limit its the persu suasi asiven eness ess of exper ert t co consensus us cu cues

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.1 .2 .3 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Anti-intellectualism (0-1)

DATA AND MEASUREMENT

  • Survey of 3,600 American citizens gathered

from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk)

  • Battery of trust questions for various types
  • f experts (e.g. scientists, economists,

doctors, etc.)

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MEASUREMENT

Measur ured ed le leve vel l of agree eement ment wit ith four r statemen ements ts rela lated ed to the foll llowi wing ng is issues:

  • Climate change (80%

% suppor

  • rt)

t)

  • Nuclear power (48%

% support) t)

  • GMOs (46%

% support) t)

  • Fluoride (53%

% support) t)

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PERSUASIVE EFFECT OF CONSENSUS CUE ACROSS ANTI-INTELLECTUALISM

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IMP MPLI LICA CATI TIONS ONS

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IMPLICATIONS

  • Need

d to take the in informati rmation n envir ironm nment nt serio iousl sly

  • Limits of ideology-driven motivated skepticism – not the only

motivation and too static to explain over time changes

  • Limits on effectiveness of consensus as a persuasion tactic?
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EXPERT MESSAGES AS % OF TOTAL AL COVERAGE

20 40 60 80 % of relevant stories GMOs Vaccines Climate change Average Federal Reserve Trade Rent Control Nuclear Power Farm Support Tolls Immigration Expert Message Consensus

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SLIDE 34

PREVALENCE OF POLARIZ ARIZING ING SOURCE CES S (%)

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IMPLICATIONS

  • Need to take the information environment seriously
  • Lim

imit its of id ideolo logy gy-dri riven en motiv ivat ated ed skepti ticis cism m – too stati tic c to expl plai ain

  • ve

ver r tim ime e ch change ges

  • Limits on effectiveness of consensus as a persuasion tactic?
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SLIDE 36

PARTY Y CUES S IN NEWS CONTENT OVER TIME (%)

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IMPLICATIONS

  • Need to take the information environment seriously
  • Limits of ideology-driven motivated skepticism – not the only

motivation and too static to explain over time changes

  • Lim

imit its on effecti ectiven eness ess of co consensu sus s as a persuas uasio ion n tact ctic ic?

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PERSUASIVE EFFECT OF CONSENSUS CUE ACROSS ANTI-INTELLECTUALISM

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Tha Thank nk You

  • u!

Contact: eric.merkley@ubc.ca www.ericmerkley.com