Welcome to Todays Webinar September 15, 2020 Integrated Planning to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome to Todays Webinar September 15, 2020 Integrated Planning to Build a Thriving Academic Program Portfolio Part 2 of 3 Instructional Economics: Making Finance-Informed Academic Decisions Presenters in This Series Dr. Antoinette
2
Prof Emeritus, Former CFO Stanford University Steve Probst Senior Partner Gray Associates
Deputy Vice President, Educational Outreach & Student Services Arizona State University
3
ACADEMIC PROGRAM PORTFOLIO PLANNING: PREPARING TO THRIVE
INSTRUCTIONAL ECONOMICS: MAKING FINANCE- INFORMED ACADEMIC DECISIONS FROM ACADEMIC PROGRAM DECISIONS TO RESULTS: BUILDING AND MANAGING A ROBUST PROGRAM PORTFOLIO
August 27 2:00 pm EST September 15 2:00 pm EST October 1 2:00 pm EST
I. Introduction to Direct Instructional Economics II. Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs) III. Four Ways to Close a Financial Sustainability Gap
IV. Program Importance, Market Scoring, and Learning Quality
Agenda
5
COVID-19 has created big Financial Gaps for most Colleges and Universities.
Financial GAP
deficits and cash flow problems
departures from financial sustainability The processes and models we'll discuss today can help institutions quantify and close the gap.
Gray Proprietary
6
The challenge is not just to survive financially, but to survive as the healthy institution you want to be. Hiring freezes, early retirement offers, and furloughs; salary, benefits, and expense reductions Higher faculty and staff workloads; lower quality and service levels for students, faculty and
(”Squeezes, speedups, and cuts will force out dollars.")
Gray Proprietary
Alas, these actions just substitute one problem for another. They’re not sustainable solutions.
Changing your course and program portfolios can mitigate the squeeze and the speedup.
7 Gray Proprietary
8
Some basic ideas to remember…. § Programs are market-facing activities. They are are the drivers of revenue.
§ Courses deliver the academic outcomes promised by programs.
by admission targets).
prowess, help determine the quality of education.
§ Resizing the program portfolio can help restore financial sustainability.
consideration of …
Gray Proprietary
9
Three steps for restoring an institution’s Operational and Financial Sustainability.
Gap and apportion it between the Academic and Non-academic parts of the institution.
Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty, staff and the institution generally.
a Gap-Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact
Program importance (mission) ratings Market scoring Learning quality Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs)
...and the Processes and Tools for implementing them.
Gray Proprietary
10
Three Steps for making the Academic Fundamentals sustainable
Quantify the Financial Gap and apportion it between the Academic and Non-academic parts of the institution. Analyze Academic Operations and identify a Gap- Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty, staff and the institution generally. Analyze Non-Academic Operations and identify a Gap-Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty and the institution.
Program importance (mission) ratings Market scoring Learning quality Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs)
...and the Processes and Tools for implementing them.
Gray Proprietary
11
Quantify the Financial Gap and apportion it between the Academic and Non-academic parts of the institution. Analyze Academic Operations and identify a Gap- Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty, staff and the institution generally. Analyze Non-Academic Operations and identify a Gap-Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty and the institution.
Program importance (mission) ratings Market scoring Learning quality Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs)
Gray Proprietary
We’ll start with Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs), which provide the data needed for good decision making.
12
Indirect Support and Administrative Costs Direct Shared Costs (e.g. Academic Deans)
Course-Level Input
Direct Instructional Economics (e.g. enrollments, classes, unit costs, tuition)
Accounting System Department-Level Input
Gray Proprietary
13
$- $79 $104 $133 $172 $217 $266 $364 $531 $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Min 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Max
Course Percentile
Illustrative: Direct Instructional Cost per Student Credit Hour
$5,497
Median course costs $217 per SCH 1 in 5 courses costs at least $531 per SCH – 2.5x the median
Gray Proprietary
Instructional economics are critical for virtually all academic resourcing decisions.
(Hint: it's not because financial considerations should dominate decisions.)
14
§ All programs should further the university’s mission directly and/or by making money. § Making money feeds the cross-subsidy pool. § Cross subsidies support what markets won’t – advancing the mission.
Gray Proprietary
15
Basic structure of the Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs) that reduce the direct instructional economics concepts to practice.
Shared courses coupled with discrete sectioning produce interactions among programs that need to be considered.
Crosswalk between Program and Course Enrollments
Course Enrollments
Effects of changes…
Gray Proprietary
Key Variables Activity
counts and average class sizes
Financial
Data
IT systems
16
Three Steps for making the Academic Fundamentals sustainable
Quantify the Financial Gap and apportion it between the Academic and Non-academic parts of the institution. Analyze Academic Operations and identify a Gap- Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty, staff and the institution generally. Analyze Non-Academic Operations and identify a Gap-Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty and the institution.
Program importance (mission) ratings Market scoring Learning quality Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs)
...and the Processes and Tools for implementing them.
Gray Proprietary
17
Gap Closing Faculty Hires Course Scheduling Gen Ed Design Redesign
Courses Redesign of Program Curriculum
Gray Proprietary
18
The four options for changing course and program portfolios
(1) Prune existing courses (2) Resize existing programs (3) Redesign existing courses (4) Create new programs Change the Course Portfolio. Change the Program Portfolio. These alternatives influence mainly Cost. These alternatives influence Revenue and Cost. These actions won't produce results until at least the year after next. These actions will influence
starting next year. Course and Program Portfolios are the main drivers of academic
Cost-cutting is important, but the big money lies in the Program Portfolio.
Gray Proprietary
19
The four options for changing course and program portfolios
(1) Prune existing courses (2) Resize existing programs (3) Redesign existing courses (4) Create new programs Change the Course Portfolio. Change the Program Portfolio. These alternatives influence mainly Cost. These alternatives influence Revenue and Cost. These actions won't produce results until at least the year after next. These actions will influence
starting next year. Course and Program Portfolios are the main drivers of academic
Cost-cutting is important, but the big money lies in the Program Portfolio.
Gray Proprietary
20
Decades of course proliferation have produced tangled and inefficient course portfolios ("curricular sprawl"). Enrollment is no surrogate for margin or importance: don't just cut the small courses. Some courses have excess capacity,
displaced students go matters greatly.
+ +
Gray Proprietary
21
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-75 76-100 101+
Courses by Level and Class Size
100 Level 200 Level 300 Level 400 Level+
Number of Courses Number of Students
Note the vary large number of 400-level courses (dark blue) with 10 students or less.
Gray Proprietary
22
Gray Proprietary
5 10 15
Efficiency Gap Courses
Over-Efficent The Efficiency Gap = IDEAL CLASS SIZE minus ACTUAL CLASS SIZE. The Curricular Efficiency Index = 36% Cost saving if 100% efficiency were possible = 58% Courses that exceed their ideal class sizes (not shown) may put quality at risk and/or reflect unsustainable workloads.
23
One question is whether the resulting student-faculty ratio will be consistent with peer institutions.
Gray Proprietary
24
Gray Proprietary
Source: Gray Associates Academic Economics Benchmarking Consortium
STEM PROGRAMS: ILLUSTRATIVE
25
Gray Proprietary
Source: Gray Associates Academic Economics Benchmarking Consortium
STEM PROGRAMS: ILLUSTRATIVE
26
Course Contribution by Size (SCH)
Gray Proprietary
27
Sustain as a cash cow?
Subsidize? Share (Import)? Eliminate? Consolidate? Grow? Share (Import)? Redesign? Share (Import)?
Low Medium High Low or negative Medium High
Share (Export)?
Gray Proprietary
28
Gray Proprietary
29
The four options for changing course and program portfolios
(1) Prune existing courses (2) Resize existing programs (3) Redesign existing courses (4) Create new programs Change the Course Portfolio. Change the Program Portfolio. These alternatives influence mainly Cost. These alternatives influence Revenue and Cost. These actions won't produce results until at least the year after next. These actions will influence
starting next year. Course and Program Portfolios are the main drivers of academic
Cost-cutting is important, but the big money lies in the Program Portfolio.
Gray Proprietary
30
Gray Proprietary
Mission
Market
Margin
Size / Overlap
Academics
31
(10) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 (200) (100) 100 200 300 400 500 600
Market Rating Margin per Credit Hour
Key: Bubble area is proportional to program Size (credit hours generated). Darker fill indicates greater Importance (mission contribution). Overlap and Academics are not shown.
Gray Proprietary
32
Program Review Workshop E.g., a day-long retreat to judge importance, review the market and margin data, and decide which programs to grow, shrink, sustain, or stop. “We’ve made great progress! Now, how can we quantify the plan?”
* Blanks mean the workshop generated no preference.
Gray Proprietary
Program Students Mission Market Margin/CH Workshop 1
Business
288 3 40 $329 2
SCPS
486 2 5 $130 3
Mathematics
60 2 54 $335 4
Chemistry and Biochemistry
33 2 95 ($163) Shrink 5
Biology
171 3 100 $365 Grow 6
Communications
85 2 10 $366 7
Computer Science
86 3 60 $378 Grow 8
Sociology-Anthropology
39 2 50 $164 9
Education
136 3 25 $416 10 Engineering and Physics 153 2 45 $411 11 English 73 2 35 $285 12 Art 30 1 25 $71 Shrink 13 Interdisciplinary Studies 143 1 65 $312 14 Occupational Therapy 286 3 70 $510 Grow 15 History 21 2 40 $204 16 Political Science / Public Policy 48 1 60 $315 Shrink 17 Modern Languages 23 2 90 $44 Grow 18 Music 52 2 100 $134 Sustain 19 Philosophy 8 3 85 $241 Grow 20 Psychology 87 2 65 $386 Grow 21 Religious Studies 3 1 50 $296 Shrink 22 Social Work 35 1 18 $304 Shrink 23 Theatre 6 2 80 $69 Stop Sum/Weighted averages 2,352 2.40 50.28 $303
33
Test alternative portfolio actions for their effects on course enrollments, credit hour generation, and section counts… … which allows the prediction of revenues, costs, and margins for programs and courses.
Gray Proprietary
34
These are the fractions of student credit hours that overlap among programs in our test
Most programs share courses due to curricular design, gen-ed, and student preferences.
As noted earlier, shared courses coupled with discrete sectioning produce interactions among programs that should be considered when evaluating portfolio change.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1
Business
1.00 0.00 0.19 0.04 0.24 0.14 0.17 0.04 0.14 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.22 0.18 0.02 0.10 0.04 0.08 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.05 0.01 2
SCPS
1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3
Mathematics
1.00 0.24 0.17 0.13 0.45 0.08 0.22 0.26 0.25 0.20 0.46 0.05 0.07 0.18 0.10 0.16 0.03 0.18 0.00 0.07 0.02 4
Chemistry and Biochemistry
1.00 0.24 0.07 0.20 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.04 0.15 0.05 0.07 0.03 5
Biology
1.00 0.14 0.22 0.08 0.17 0.28 0.18 0.10 0.39 0.31 0.04 0.12 0.06 0.17 0.02 0.32 0.01 0.09 0.01 6
Communications
1.00 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.13 0.26 0.06 0.06 0.16 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.18 0.00 0.08 0.03 7
Computer Science
1.00 0.08 0.10 0.39 0.17 0.12 0.38 0.07 0.06 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.02 0.19 0.01 0.08 0.02 8
Sociology-Anthropology
1.00 0.04 0.04 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.18 0.13 0.05 0.20 0.02 0.13 0.04 9
Education
1.00 0.14 0.29 0.12 0.33 0.10 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.11 0.01 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.01 10
Engineering and Physics
1.00 0.11 0.08 0.30 0.14 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.01 0.15 0.00 0.06 0.01 11
English
1.00 0.25 0.36 0.07 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.04 0.22 0.01 0.14 0.07 12
Art
1.00 0.36 0.04 0.14 0.15 0.23 0.21 0.05 0.19 0.01 0.09 0.09 13
Interdisciplinary Studies
1.00 0.13 0.12 0.28 0.17 0.33 0.02 0.39 0.01 0.17 0.04 14
Occupational Therapy
1.00 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.04 0.01 15
History
1.00 0.16 0.23 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.10 16
Political Science / Public Policy
1.00 0.18 0.15 0.06 0.18 0.02 0.10 0.05 17
Modern Languages
1.00 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.02 0.10 0.15 18
Music
1.00 0.02 0.32 0.00 0.14 0.05 19
Philosophy
1.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.07 20
Psychology
1.00 0.01 0.22 0.03 21
Religious Studies
1.00 0.00 0.02 22
Social Work
1.00 0.03 23
Theatre
1.00
Base 5
Programs
Gray Proprietary
35
Select which program(s) to change. Decide on the direction and amount of change. Predict the change in revenue. Predict the change in section counts, and thus costs. Calculate the change in contribution margin.
Start by assembling data on the five program attributes discussed earlier. Continue circling: add new changes to the mix until the workshop is satisfied with the result.
The goal is to to identify the Margin improvements needed for financial sustainability while minimizing the adverse effects
Quality.
A Predictive Academic Resourcing Model will provide the needed activity, cost, and revenue estimates How much to:
reconfigure?)
Using judgment to determine the changes is fine. But finding the right combinations of enrollment moves is like finding a needle in a haystack.
Gray Proprietary
36
Directional indications will inform conversations about resizing.
Key to Actions Amount of Change
enrollment change (=0 here)
iteration (use smaller steps for modest short-term changes).
20%, or minus the base enrollment if it’s less than the step size. Rules of Thumb
enrollment for highest-margin “Grow” and unlabeled programs; cut them for the smallest-margin “Shrink” and unlabeled programs.
except using incremental instead of average margins.
Gray Proprietary
1
Business
288 $329 20 2
SCPS
486 $130 (20) 3
Mathematics
60 $335 4
Chemistry and Biochemistry
33 ($163) Shrink (20) 5
Biology
171 $365 Grow 20 6
Communications
85 $366 7
Computer Science
86 $378 Grow 8
Sociology-Anthropology
39 $164 9
Education
136 $416 20 10 Engineering and Physics 153 $411 11 English 73 $285 12 Art 30 $71 Shrink 13 Interdisciplinary Studies 143 $312 (20) 14 Occupational Therapy 286 $510 Grow 20 15 History 21 $204 16 Political Science / Public Policy 48 $315 Shrink 17 Modern Languages 23 $44 Grow 18 Music 52 $134 Sustain 19 Philosophy 8 $241 Grow 20 Psychology 87 $386 Grow 21 Religious Studies 3 $296 Shrink 22 Social Work 35 $304 Shrink (20) 23 Theatre 6 $69 Stop Cumulative margin change ($ thousands): $332 $255 Rules of Thumb Program Students Margin/CH Workshop
37
Directional indications will inform conversations about resizing.
Key to Actions Amount of Change
enrollment change (=0 here)
iteration (use smaller steps for modest short-term changes).
+/- 20%, or minus the base enrollment if it’s less than the step size. Rules of Thumb
enrollment for highest-margin “Grow” and unlabeled programs; cut them for the smallest-margin “Shrink” and unlabeled programs.
except using incremental instead of average margins. Optimizer
new LP procedure now in development.
Market; 50% Margin.
Gray Proprietary
1 iter. 6 iter. 1
Business
288 $329 20 20 58 2
SCPS
486 $130 (20) (20) (97) 3
Mathematics
60 $335 12 12 4
Chemistry and Biochemistry
33 ($163) Shrink (20) 5
Biology
171 $365 Grow 20 20 34 6
Communications
85 $366 (17) (17) 7
Computer Science
86 $378 Grow 17 17 8
Sociology-Anthropology
39 $164 (7) (6) 9
Education
136 $416 20 20 27 10 Engineering and Physics 153 $411 (20) (31) 11 English 73 $285 (15) (15) 12 Art 30 $71 Shrink (6) (6) 13 Interdisciplinary Studies 143 $312 (20) (20) (29) 14 Occupational Therapy 286 $510 Grow 20 20 57 15 History 21 $204 (4) (4) 16 Political Science / Public Policy 48 $315 Shrink (10) (10) 17 Modern Languages 23 $44 Grow 5 5 18 Music 52 $134 Sustain 19 Philosophy 8 $241 Grow 2 2 20 Psychology 87 $386 Grow 17 17 21 Religious Studies 3 $296 Shrink (1) (1) 22 Social Work 35 $304 Shrink (20) (7) (7) 23 Theatre 6 $69 Stop (6) (6) Cumulative margin change ($ thousands): $332 $255 $563 $1,338 Rules of Thumb Optimizer Program Students Margin/CH Workshop
2.38 2.40 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.48 2.50 2.52
Iteration =>
MISSION CONTRIBUTION
51.0 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
MARKET RATING
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
Iteration =>
CUMULATIVE MARGIN CHANGE ($000)
(10) (5) 5 10 15 20
CHANGE IN SECTION COUNTS
38
Gray Proprietary
Graphs from the Optimizer with the Rules of Thumb superimposed. Tabular Results
1 iter. 6 iter. Weighted avg. Importance 2.40 2.42 2.43 2.46 2.50 Weighted avg. Market 51.2 51.1 51.8 52.6 54.0 Revenue ($000) $35,452 $35,781 $35,677 $35,957 $36,991 Cost ($000) $15,507 $15,509 $15,480 $15,451 $15,709 Margin ($000) $19,943 $20,275 $20,198 $20,506 $21,281 Variable Rules of Thumb Optimizer Base Values
39
The four options for changing course and program portfolios
(All depend heavily on Academic Resourcing Models.) (1) Prune existing courses (2) Resize existing programs (3) Redesign existing courses (4) Create new programs Change the Course Portfolio. Change the Program Portfolio. These alternatives influence mainly Cost. These alternatives influence Revenue and Cost. These actions won't produce results until at least the year after next. These actions will influence
starting next year. Course and Program Portfolios are the main drivers of academic
Cost-cutting is important, but the big money lies in the Program Portfolio.
Gray Proprietary
40
(The instructional economic data will help identify candidate courses.)
Gray Proprietary
Systems thinking Learning science Quality principles Service science
§ Faculty lead the course redesign projects, ideally (now) with the aid of professional staff. § Most redesign projects reduce cost, and also produce better learning. § They will obtain a surprising amount of insight by looking beyond their immediate experience.
41
Asynchronous Teaching and Learning Synchronous
Work with course software Teaching Assistants Reporting sessions Papers or projects Interpretive seminars Motivating lectures Faculty Teaching Assistants
Source: Massy, Honoring the Trust, Figure 5.3
Gray Proprietary
Full-Time Faculty Full-Time Faculty
42
The four options for changing course and program portfolios
(All depend heavily on Academic Resourcing Models.) (1) Prune existing courses (2) Resize existing programs (3) Redesign existing courses (4) Create new programs Change the Course Portfolio. Change the Program Portfolio. These alternatives influence mainly Cost. These alternatives influence Revenue and Cost. These actions won't produce results until at least the year after next. These actions will influence
starting next year. Course and Program Portfolios are the main drivers of academic
Cost-cutting is important, but the big money lies in the Program Portfolio.
Gray Proprietary
43
Examine institutional priorities and competencies, plus market data, to identify a shortlist of new program possibilities. Develop a preliminary curriculum plan to identify the courses the new program's students would likely take. Use the Predictive Academic Resourcing Model to estimate the program's revenues, costs, and margins, taking course
capacity into account. Decide which program(s) to offer; refine the curriculum and marketing plan, recheck the economics, and prepare an implementation plan.
Gray Proprietary
44
Three Steps for making the Academic Fundamentals sustainable
Quantify the Financial Gap and apportion it between the Academic and Non-academic parts of the institution. Analyze Academic Operations and identify a Gap- Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty, staff and the institution generally. Analyze Non-Academic Operations and identify a Gap-Closing Strategy that minimizes the impact on students, faculty and the institution.
Program importance (mission) ratings Market scoring Learning quality Academic Resourcing Models (ARMs)
...and the Processes and Tools for implementing them.
Gray Proprietary
45
Gray Proprietary
High Medium Low
1
Business
3 2
SCPS
2 3
Mathematics
2 4
Chemistry and Biochemistry
2 5
Biology
3 6
Communications
2 7
Computer Science
3 8
Sociology-Anthropology
2 9
Education
3 10
Engineering and Physics
2 11
English
2 12
Art
1 13
Interdisciplinary Studies
1 14
Occupational Therapy
3 15
History
2 16
Political Science / Public Policy
1 17
Modern Languages
2 18
Music
1 19
Philosophy
3 20
Psychology
2 21
Religious Studies
1 22
Social Work
1 23
Theatre
2 Program
Mission Rating
worst items in the list of programs; assign them to the High and Low categories.
remaining items until none are judged as especially high or low.
items to the Medium
need not end up being of equal size.)
46
Gray Proprietary
47
There are few good learning metrics Teaching and learning quality are elusive concepts. But we now have good economic models There's a real danger that money issues will drive down quality. So, how can we give quality its due? We need concepts and data to push back against quality erosion.
Context for Assuring and Improving Educational Quality
Gray Proprietary
48
ACADEMIC PROGRAM PORTFOLIO PLANNING: PREPARING TO THRIVE
INSTRUCTIONAL ECONOMICS: MAKING FINANCE- INFORMED ACADEMIC DECISIONS FROM ACADEMIC PROGRAM DECISIONS TO RESULTS: BUILDING AND MANAGING A ROBUST PROGRAM PORTFOLIO \
August 27 2:00 pm EST September 15 2:00 pm EST October 1 2:00 pm EST
Gray Proprietary