Washington County Consolidated Plan Kick Off December 2018 Emily - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Washington County Consolidated Plan Kick‐Off

December 2018

Emily Starbuck Economist & Workforce Analyst

LOCAL STRENGTHS

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Portland Metro Washington County Multnomah County Clackamas County

Washington County Leads Regional Employment Growth

Seasonally adjusted. Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Estimates, Apr. 2008 to Oct. 2018

18% 15% 13% 9%

Washington County Has Lower than Average Unemployment

Seasonally adjusted. Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Apr. 2008 to Oct. 2018

4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Portland Metro Washington County Multnomah County Clackamas County

Washington County is Younger, More Diverse, and More Highly Educated

Indicator Portland MSA Washington County Multnomah County Clackamas County Median Age 38.2 36.9 37.3 41.6 Median Household Income $71,931 $80,946 $63,974 $79,878 Percent People of Color 26.8% 34.2% 30.4% 18.2% Percent with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (25+ years) 40.3% 45.8% 45.4% 38.4%

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 1-year estimates, tables S0101, S1903, S0501, S1501

Washington County Has Highest Average Wages in the State; Second Highest Wage Growth in Metro Area

Inflation adjusted. Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012 & 2017

$51,117 $68,168 $57,173 $51,724 $40,552 $38,808 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Oregon Washington Multnomah Clackamas Yamhill Columbia 2017 Annual Average Wage Real Wage Growth 2012 ‐ 2017

AREAS OF WEAKNESS

28% of County Households are Low Income

• 61,312 households
• 138,476 people
• Lower than Multnomah

County – 39% low income

• On par with Clackamas

County – also 28% low income

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, 2017 1‐year estimates for Washington County

Extremely low income, 7% Very low income, 7% Low income, 14% Not low income, 72%

Low Income Residents are More Diverse and Less Highly Educated

Indicator County Average Low Income Residents Median Household Income $80,946 $34,380 Percent People of Color 34.2% 43.2% Percent with a Bachelor’s Degree

• r Higher (25+ years)

45.8% 28.1% Labor force participation rate (age 25‐54) 85.1% 74.2% Percent under 18 23.3% 26.0% Percent 65 or older 12.9% 17.9%

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, 2017 1‐year estimates for Washington County

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-year estimates

Race & Poverty

Census tracts where people of color make up 34%+ of population

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-year estimates

Race & Poverty

Census tracts with the county’s highest poverty rates Downtown Hillsboro, 45% Durham/ Rivergrove, 33% South Hillsboro, 30% Downtown Beaverton, 24% Forest Grove, 23%

48% 43% 32% 37% 23% 24% 28% 31% ‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 <$20k $20‐30k $30‐40k $40‐50k $50‐65k $65‐75k $75‐100k >$100k White People of Color

People of Color Make Up 32% of Full‐time Workforce, But Are Overrepresented in Lower Income Tiers

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 1-year estimates, Washington County

Over 32% People

• f Color

Under 32% People of Color

CURRENT OPPORTUNITIES

$1,868 $1,522

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Oct‐11 Apr‐12 Oct‐12 Apr‐13 Oct‐13 Apr‐14 Oct‐14 Apr‐15 Oct‐15 Apr‐16 Oct‐16 Apr‐17 Oct‐17 Apr‐18 Oct‐18

Single Family Multifamily

Median Rents Stabilizing in 2018

Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), Oct. 2011 to Oct. 2018, Washington County

Fastest‐Growing Occupations in the Portland Area Provide Opportunities at All Education Levels

Occupation 2017‐2027 Projected Growth Rate Entry‐Level Education Home health aides 36.1% Less than high school Health specialties teachers, postsecondary 31.5% Master’s degree Software developers, applications 31.0% Bachelor’s degree Medical assistants 29.9% Postsecondary training Physical therapists 29.6% Doctoral or professional degree Market research analysts & marketing specialists 28.6% Bachelor’s degree Financial managers 27.0% Bachelor’s degree Personal care aides 23.7% High school diploma Massage therapists 23.2% Postsecondary training Transportation, storage and distribution managers 22.7% Bachelor’s degree

Occupations with at least 1,000 employed in 2017 Source: Oregon Employment Department, 2017-2027 Occupational Employment Projections, Portland Tri-County

FUTURE CHALLENGES

8% 12% 17% 23% 10% 8% 17% 6% 10% 5% 14% 7% 20% 18% 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000 Natural resources and mining Information Private educational services Transportation, warehousing, and utilities Other services Wholesale trade Construction Financial activities Retail trade Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Government Health care and social assistance Professional and business services 2017 Employment 2027 Employment

Slower Projected Growth in a Core Industry

Source: Oregon Employment Department, 2017-2027 Industry Employment Projections, Portland Tri-County

Total projected growth: 12.7%

‐10% 0% 0% 0% 8% 4% 18% 2% ‐5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Paper manufacturing Wood product manufacturing Primary metal manufacturing Transportation equipment manufacturing Machinery manufacturing Fabricated metal product manufacturing Food manufacturing Computer and electronic product manufacturing 2017 Employment 2027 Employment

Slower Projected Growth in a Core Industry

Source: Oregon Employment Department, 2017-2027 Industry Employment Projections, Portland Tri-County

Total projected growth: 5%

Through 2025, 16% of Oregon’s Population Growth Will Be in Washington County

Washington County +63,000 (10.5%) Multnomah County +53,000 (6.5%) Clackamas County +41,000 (9.8%)

Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, 2018 Preliminary Estimates & Cycle 1 Population Forecast