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Wage convergence in south-eastern European countries KODA AUTO University September 2019 Countries analyzed Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Albania Other countries for comparison Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland Spain,

  1. Wage convergence in south-eastern European countries ŠKODA AUTO University September 2019

  2. Countries analyzed • Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Albania Other countries for comparison • Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland • Spain, Portugal • Germany 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 2

  3. Indicators for evaluation • development of total labor cost per hour in industry in 1998–2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 • development of total labor cost per hour in the automotive industry in 2008–2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey only) • development of the ratio of the country’s total labor cost per hour in industry to Germany’s one in 1998– 2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 • comparison of the development of total labor cost per hour in industry and of GDP per capita in 1998–2018 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 3

  4. Data All data – in nominal value, in euro • Albania – low availability of data, impossibility to create forecasts • Turkey – time series 2007–2018 • Romania – time series 2000–2018 • other countries – time series 1998–2018 • automotive industry – data for 2008, 2012 and 2016 only Data sources • Eurostat • national statistical offices 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 4

  5. Note • In countries with their own national currencies, the development of their total labor cost in euro depends on fluctuations in their exchange rates. In particular, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the euro is highly volatile. • Forecasts are created using exponential smoothing. 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 5

  6. Exponential smoothing Adaptive approach to fitting time series Calculation of each fitted value is based on all available past observations The trend is locally linear, its slope is gradually changing. Its parameters are estimated by weighted least-square method where the weights exponentially decrease towards the past, i.e. more recent observations are weighted more heavily than distantly past observations. Forecast at time t for time t + h + = + ⋅ ˆ Y a b h t h t t Minimization ∞  − − α 2 j [ Y ( a jb ] − t j t t = j 0 ( )( ) = α + − α + Recurrent calculation of parameters a Y 1 a b − − t t t 1 t 1 ( ) ( ) = β − + − β b a a 1 b − − t t t 1 t 1 a 0 b 0 Starting values and are obtained by fitting several initial observations with a straight line. < α < < β < 0 1 0 1 Smoothing constants 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 6

  7. Total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 7

  8. TLC Bulgaria 10 9 8 7 EUR per hour 6 Data Upper 95% 5 Forecast 4 Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 8

  9. TLC Romania 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data 8 Upper 95% Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 9

  10. TLC Turkey 9 8 7 6 EUR per hour Data 5 Upper 95% 4 Forecast Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 10

  11. TLC Czech Republic 25 20 EUR per hour 15 Data Upper 95% Forecast 10 Lower 95% 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 11

  12. TLC Slovakia 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 12

  13. TLC Hungary 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 13

  14. TLC Poland 16 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 8 Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 14

  15. TLC Spain 35 30 25 EUR per hour Data 20 Upper 95% Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 15

  16. TLC Portugal 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 16

  17. TLC Germany 60 50 40 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 30 Forecast Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 17

  18. Total labor cost (TLC) per hour in the automotive industry (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 18

  19. TLC Bulgaria (adjusted for automotive industry) 10 9 8 7 EUR per hour 6 Data Upper 95% 5 Forecast 4 Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 19

  20. TLC Romania (adjusted for automotive industry) 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data 8 Upper 95% Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 20

  21. TLC Turkey (adjusted for automotive industry) 12 10 8 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 6 Forecast Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 21

  22. The ratio of the country’s total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry to Germany’s one (in %) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 22

  23. TLC Bulgaria / TLC Germany Ratio 20 18 16 14 12 Data Upper 95% % 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 23

  24. TLC Romania / TLC Germany Ratio 30 25 20 Data Upper 95% % 15 Forecast Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 24

  25. TLC Turkey / TLC Germany Ratio 25 20 15 Data Upper 95% % Forecast 10 Lower 95% 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 25

  26. TLC Czech Republic / TLC Germany Ratio 60 50 40 Data Upper 95% % 30 Forecast Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 26

  27. TLC Slovakia / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 27

  28. TLC Hungary / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 28

  29. TLC Poland / TLC Germany Ratio 35 30 25 Data 20 Upper 95% % Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 29

  30. TLC Spain / TLC Germany Ratio 80 70 60 50 Data Upper 95% % 40 Forecast 30 Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 30

  31. TLC Portugal / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 31

  32. Comparison of total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry and of GDP per capita (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 32

  33. TLC, GDP – Bulgaria 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 33

  34. TLC, GDP – Romania 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 34

  35. TLC, GDP – Turkey 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 35

  36. TLC, GDP – Czech Republic 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 36

  37. TLC, GDP – Slovakia 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 37

  38. TLC, GDP – Hungary 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 38

  39. TLC, GDP – Poland 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 39

  40. TLC, GDP – Spain 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 40

  41. TLC, GDP – Portugal 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 41

  42. TLC, GDP – Germany 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 42

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