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USA SA Hy Hybri brid d an and El Electri ctric c Vehic icles les Mark arket t an and R&D &D Act ctiv ivity ity Mark rk S. Smith th Progra ram Manager, , Techno hnology ogy Integra rati tion n Vehicl cle e

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SLIDE 1

1 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

USA SA Hy Hybri brid d an and El Electri ctric c Vehic icles les – Mark arket t an and R&D &D Act ctiv ivity ity

Mark rk S. Smith th Progra ram Manager, , Techno hnology

  • gy Integra

rati tion n Vehicl cle e Technol nolog

  • gies

s Office ce

September 17, 2019

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SLIDE 2

‹#›

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

OUR UR WAY Y OF LIF IFE

TRANSP SPOR ORTATION ON IS IS FUNDAME MENTAL L TO TO

50% of the weight and 37% of the value of goods are moved less than 100 miles between origin and destination

Technologies and fuel choices are expanding Transportation costs are high— second only to housing expenses

In 2018, USPS shipped 6.2 Billion packages – up from 4 Billion in 2014

3 Trillion Vehicle Miles 11 Billion Freight Tons

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SLIDE 3

3 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

Transportation Fuel Type (2018)

(Total consumption: 28.4 trillion Btu) Petroleum (91.6%)

Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, edition 37 (January 2019), Table 2.03 *”Renewables” include hydro-electric, geothermal, wind, solar, and bio-mass energy.

Petroleum Dominates Transportation Fuel Use

Tra ranspor nsportation tation En Ener ergy gy Consumption nsumption (2018) 8)

Natural Gas (3.1%) Electricity (0.3%) Renewables* (5.0%)

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SLIDE 4

4 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

VMT MT, , Petrol

  • leum,

eum, and d Emi missio sions ns (19 1975 75–20 2017)

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has increased about 150% over the past 40 years, but Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions have decreased about 40% Advanced Vehicle Technology and Regulations have played a major role in this trend.

THE CHALLENGE

  • 240 million LDV on the

road in the U.S.

  • 16M LDVs annual sales
  • 10-15 years for annual

sales penetration

  • 10-15 years to turn over

fleet

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

VMT Petroleum/GHG Petroleum/GHG (per mile)

VMT, Petroleum and/or GHG, Indexed to 1975=1.0 Year

Sources: Petroleum and GHG from EIA Monthly Review http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly VMT from AFDC http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10315

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SLIDE 5

5 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

HE HEV Sale les s (19 1999 99–20 2018) 8)

  • 60 models available
  • 343,219 sold in 2018
  • 5% decrease over 2017

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hybrid d Electric ctric Vehicle cle Annual al Sales s by Model

Year Sales (thousand vehicles)

Source: Argonne National Laboratory Data

2018 Others Lexus ES Hybrid Kia Optima Ford C-Max Hybrid Toyota Avalon Lexus NX Hybrid Honda Insight Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Toyota Highlander Lexus RX 450h Honda Accord Toyota Camry Kia Niro Toyota RAV4 Ford Fusion & Milan Toyota Prius

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SLIDE 6

6 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

HE HEV Ma Mark rket Share re (20 2013 3 vs vs. . 20 2018) 8)

  • Over 2013–2018, HEV

sales shrank from 495,535 to 343,219 (31% loss).

  • Toyota still held the top

market share in 2018 (45%), but it was smaller than in 2013 (58%).

  • In 2018, Toyota, Ford

and Lexus accounted for about 73% of the HEV market (down from 82% in 2013).

HE HEV V Mark rket Share are (by y Automa

  • maker)

r)

2013 Sales (495,535)

Toyota (58%) Ford (15%) Honda (4%) Hyundai (4%) Kia (3%) Lexus (9%) Others (2%)

2018 Sales (343,219)

Source: Argonne National Laboratory Data GM (5%) Toyota (45%) Ford (19%) Honda (10%) Hyundai (5%) Kia (9%) Lexus (9%) Others (1%) GM (3%)

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SLIDE 7

7 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

PEV V Sale les (20 2011 11–20 2018) 8)

50 100 150 250 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sales (Thousand Vehicles)

  • 52 models available
  • 361,315 sold in 2018
  • 85% increase over the 2017 sales (195,581).

Year

U.S. . Plug ug-in in El Electr tric c Vehicl hicle e (PEV EV) ) Sales es by Model del

350 300 200

Source: Argonne National Laboratory Data

2018

Others Kia Niro Plug In Mitsubishi Outlander Plug In BMW X5 BMW i3 Chrysler Pacifica Plug-in Hybrid Ford Fusion Energi BMW 5-Series Plug in Nissan Leaf Chevy Bolt Chevy Volt Honda Clarity Plug-in Tesla Model S Tesla Model X Prius PHEV Tesla Model 3

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SLIDE 8

8 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

PEV V Ma Mark rket Share re (20 2018) 8)

PEV V Mark rket t Share are (by y Automak

  • maker)

er)

2018 Sales (361,315)

  • In 2018, 52 PEV models were

available for sale in the U.S.

  • Tesla held the top market

share (53%)

  • The 2018 PEV sales leaders

represented 70% of sales

– Tesla Model 3 (139,782) – Prius PHEV (27,595) – Tesla Model X (26,100) – Tesla Model S (25,745) – Honda Clarity Plug-in (18,602) – Chevrolet Volt (18,306) – Chevrolet Bolt (18,019)

  • Sales were 85% more in 2018

than in 2017.

Tesla (53%) GM (10%) BMW (6.8%) Ford (2.6%) Nissan (4.1%) Toyota (7.6%) Others (15.8%) Source: Argonne National Laboratory Data

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SLIDE 9

9 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

In Indu dustr stry

  • Tesla became the top seller of luxury cars in the U.S.

– From January to November 2018, Tesla Model 3 sold about 114,160 units.

  • GM plans to double its allocated resources for EVs and

autonomous vehicles in 2019-20.

  • Ford plans to spend $11 billion on 40 PEVs over 2018 -2022.
  • Mazda vehicles mix, by 2030, will be HEVs 95%, PEVs 5%.
  • Daimler will develop >10 PEVs by 2022, with associated

charging infrastructure (“ecosystem”).

  • Volvo will have five new full EVs in its lineup by 2021.
  • Electric scooters debuted in cities across the U.S. (Bird, Lime).

– Smartphone apps for rental.

  • MD/HD vehicle manufacturers are entering the EV market.

– Daimler deployed its first all-electric truck. – Volvo Trucks plans to begin demonstrations of all-electric VNR heavy- duty trucks.

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10 ‹#›

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

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SLIDE 11

11 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

Pol

  • lic

icy y Act ctiviti ivities es

FEDERAL L (U.S. . Depar artm tment ent of Energy) gy)

  • $19 million to 12 cost-shared projects focused on batteries and

electrification technologies to enable extreme fast charging.

  • $80 million for early-stage research of advanced vehicle technologies.
  • New initiatives

– Next-Generation “Low Cobalt/No Cobalt” Cathodes ($24 million over 3 years) – Battery Recycling Prize ($5.5 million) – Lithium-ion Battery Recycling R&D Center ($15 million over 3 years)

STATE

  • California Executive Order B-48-18

– all state entities to work with the private sector and government to put at least 5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on California roads by 2030.

  • Electrify America: $200-million investment in zero emission vehicle

(ZEV) infrastructure as well as education and awareness in California

  • Maryland Bill SB 1234

– requires a percentage of its light-duty vehicles fleet purchases are to be ZEVs.

  • EVolve NY: New York Power Authority

– Committed up to $250 million (through 2025) for various EV initiatives.

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SLIDE 12

12 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

Ch Charg rging ing St Stati ations

  • ns avail

ailable able

* Excluding private chargers, data from the U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, accessed January 7, 2019. http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html

Nu Number er of Charging ng Stations

  • ns

Chargers 2017 2018 Change AC Level 1 Chargers 1,300 (2,604) 1,031 (2,029)

  • 21% (-22%)

AC Level 2 Chargers 15,639 (38,264) 19,008 (48,818) +22% (+28%) Fast Chargers 2,232 (6,267) 2,620 (9,626) +17% (+54%) Supe perchar charge gers (inc ncl.

  • l. in Fast

Chargers) s) 394 (2,831) 594 (5,413) +51% (+91%) Tot

  • tals

als 17,219 (47,135) 20,959 (60,535) +22% (+28%)

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SLIDE 13

13 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

U.S .S. . Ele lect ctric ric Ch Charg rging ing St Stati ations

  • ns

Source: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html

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SLIDE 14

14 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

St Stat ate-le level el Di Distr tribution ibution of

  • f Ch

Charg rging ing Stati ations

  • ns
  • California leads other states in the number of charging stations by an order of

magnitude

Source: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data

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SLIDE 15

15 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

DO DOE Batt tteri eries es & & Ele lect ctri rificat ication ion Prog

  • gra

ram

Resources  VTO Annual Merit Review Report

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/downloa ds/2018-annual-merit-review-report

 R&D Annual Progress Reports

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/annual- progress-reports

 R&D Roadmaps

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/1 1/f34/US%20DRIVE%20Partnership%20Plan %20with%20ADDENDUM_NOV%202016.pdf

 R&D Highlights (USCAR)

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/0 4/f61/2018_U.S._DRIVE_Annual_Accomplish ments_Report.pdf

FY 2019 ($163.4M)

Electric Drive

 Power Electronics  Electric Motors  Traction Drive Systems

($22.2M)

Grid & Infrastructure

 Modeling & Simulation  Grid Integration  Cybersecurity

($31.1M)

Battery R&D

 Materials R&D  Battery Development  Advanced Processing

($110.1M)

Structure, Budget, and Information Resources

 Extreme fast-charging  Low Cobalt/No Cobalt  Battery Recycling R&D Center  Battery Recycling Prize

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SLIDE 16

16 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

Batt tter ery y Co Cost Red educti uction

  • n

$197

Cost per kWh for modeled battery down from $1000/kWh in 2008.

 Results based on

prototype cells & modules meeting DOE/USABC performance targets.

 Detailed USABC

battery cost model used to estimate the cost of PEV battery packs assuming that 100,000 batteries are manufactured annually.

System Cost ($/kWh)

$0 $200 $600 $500 $400 $300 $100

Year

2014 2020 2022 2024 2012 2016 2018 2026

4V, NMC

$197/kWh

4.7 Volt

Graphit hite/ e/High igh Voltage age NMC

4.2V, 10%Si

Silic icon/

  • n/High

igh Voltage age NMC

4.7 Volt, 30%Si

2028 2030

Lithiu hium-Me Metal al or Lithium hium/Sulfu ulfur

$320/kWh (5x excess Li, 10%S) ~$80/kWh (1.5x excess Li, 75%S)

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SLIDE 17

17 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY

Que uesti tions?

  • ns?

Mark Smith

mark.smith@ee.doe.gov https://afdc.energy.gov