Treasury Presentation to TBAC
Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2014 Q2 Report
Table of Contents I. Fiscal A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays p. 6 D. Treasury Net Nonmarketable Borrowing p. 7 E. Cumulative Budget Deficits p. 8 F. Deficit and Borrowing Estimates p. 9 G. Budget Surplus/Deficit p. 10 II. Financing A. Sources of Financing p. 12 B. OMB’s Projections of Net Borrowing from the Public p. 14 C. Interest Rate Assumptions p. 15 D. Net Marketable Borrowing on “Auto Pilot” Versus Deficit Forecasts p. 16 III. Portfolio Metrics A. Weighted Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding with Projections p. 20 B. Projected Gross Borrowing p. 21 C. Recent and Projected Maturity Profile p. 22 IV. Demand A. Summary Statistics p. 27 B. Bid-to-Cover Ratios p. 28 C. Investor Class Awards at Auction p. 32 D. Primary Dealer Awards at Auction p. 36 E. Direct Bidder Awards at Auction p. 37 F. Foreign Awards at Auction p. 38 2
Section I: Fiscal 3
Source: United States Department of the Treasury Year over Year % Change -50% -25% 25% 50% 75% 0% Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Corporate Taxes Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Quarterly Tax Receipts Non-Withheld Taxes (incl SECA) Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Withheld Taxes (incl FICA) Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 4
Monthly Receipt Levels (12-Month Moving Average) 120 100 80 $ bn 60 40 20 - Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Individual Income Taxes Corporation Income Taxes Social Insurance Taxes Other Individual Income Taxes include withheld and non-withheld. Social Insurance Taxes include FICA, SECA, RRTA, UTF deposits, FUTA and 5 RUIA. Other includes excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs duties and miscellaneous receipts. Source: United States Department of the Treasury
Eleven Largest Outlays 500 450 400 350 300 $ bn 250 200 150 100 50 0 HHS SSA Defense Treasury Agriculture Labor VA Transportation OPM Education Other Defense Civil Oct - Mar FY 2013 Oct - Mar FY 2014 6 Source: United States Department of the Treasury
Source: United States Department of the Treasury $ bn (35) (25) (15) 15 25 35 (5) 5 Q1-03 Q2-03 Q3-03 Q4-03 Q1-04 Q2-04 Q3-04 Q4-04 Foreign Series Q1-05 Treasury Net Nonmarketable Borrowing Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 State and Local Govt. Series (SLGS) Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Fiscal Quarter Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Savings Bonds Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 7
Cumulative Budget Deficits by Fiscal Year 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 $ bn 600 400 200 0 October November December January February March April May June July August September FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 8 Source: United States Department of the Treasury
FY 2014-2016 Deficits and Net Marketable Borrowing Estimates In $ Billions CBO's Analysis Primary of the Dealers 1 CBO 2 President's Budget 3 OMB 4 FY 2014 Deficit Estimate 528 492 506 649 FY 2015 Deficit Estimate 510 496 509 564 FY 2016 Deficit Estimate 548 536 548 531 FY 2014 Deficit Range 460 - 800 FY 2015 Deficit Range 400 - 850 FY 2016 Deficit Range 375 - 900 FY 2014 Net Marketable Borrowing Estimate 650 757 772 920 FY 2015 Net Marketable Borrowing Estimate 589 545 579 689 FY 2016 Net Marketable Borrowing Estimate 622 599 611 665 FY 2014 Net Marketable Borrowing Range 500 - 820 FY 2015 Net Marketable Borrowing Range 375 - 750 FY 2016 Net Marketable Borrowing Range 425 - 825 Estimates as of: Apr-14 Apr-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 1 Based on primary dealer feedback on Apr 21, 2014. Estimates above are averages. 2 Table 1 of the "Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2014 to 2024" 3 Table 1 of the "An Analysis of the President's 2015 Budget" 4 Table S-1 of the "Fiscal Year 2015 Budget of the U.S. Government" 9
Budget Surplus/Deficit 500 2% 0% 0 (2%) (500) (4%) (1,000) (6%) (1,500) (8%) (2,000) (10%) (2,500) (12%) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fiscal Year Surplus/Deficit in $bn (L) Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (R) OMB’s Projection Projections are from Table S-1 of OMB’s “Fiscal Year 2015 Budget of the U.S. Government.” 10
Section II: Financing 11
Sources of Financing in Fiscal Year 2014 Q2 January - March 2014 January - March 2014 Fiscal Year to Date Bill Issuance Net Bill Issuance 60 Issuance Gross Maturing Net Gross Maturing Net Net Coupon Issuance 205 4-Week 293 293 0 773 793 (20) Bills Subtotal: Net Marketable Borrowing 265 13-Week 367 422 (55) 789 812 (23) Bills 26-Week 334 325 9 701 665 36 Bills Ending Cash Balance 142 52-Week 66 75 (9) 138 150 (12) Bills Beginning Cash Balance 162 CMBs 115 0 115 196 55 141 Bills Subtotal: Change in Cash Balance (20) Bill Subtotal 1,175 1,115 60 2,597 2,475 122 Net Implied Funding for FY 2014 Q2* 285 January - March 2014 Fiscal Year to Date Coupon Issuance Issue Gross Maturing Net Gross Maturing Net 2-Year 96 107 (11) 192 216 (24) COUPON 2-Year FRN 41 0 41 41 0 41 FRN 3-Year 90 97 (7) 180 195 (15) COUPON 5-Year 105 101 4 210 184 27 COUPON 7-Year 87 0 87 174 0 174 COUPON 10-Year 66 28 38 132 59 73 COUPON 30-Year 42 0 42 84 0 84 TIPS COU 5-Year TIPS 0 0 0 16 0 16 TIPS COU TIPS COU 10-Year TIPS 28 27 1 41 27 14 30-Year TIPS 9 0 9 16 0 16 Coupon Subtotal 564 360 205 1,086 680 406 Total 1,739 1,475 265 3,683 3,155 528 12 *Assumes an end-of-March 2014 cash balance of $142 billion versus a beginning-of-January 2014 cash balance of $162 billion. By keeping the cash balance constant, Treasury arrives at the net implied funding number.
Sources of Financing in Fiscal Year 2014 Q3 April - June 2014 April - June 2014 Fiscal Year to Date Bill Issuance Assuming Constant Coupon and Average Bill Issuance Sizes as of 03/31/2014*: Issuance Gross Maturing Net Gross Maturing Net Net Bill Issuance (195) 4-Week 416 423 (7) 1,189 1,216 (27) Net Coupon Issuance 206 13-Week 364 367 (3) 1,153 1,179 (26) Subtotal: Net Marketable Borrowing 11 26-Week 325 367 (42) 1,026 1,032 (6) 52-Week 96 98 (2) 234 248 (14) Treasury Announced Estimate: Net Marketable Borrowing** (78) CMBs 0 141 (141) 196 196 0 Implied: Decrease In FY 2014 Q3 Net Issuances (89) Bill Subtotal 1,201 1,396 (195) 3,798 3,871 (73) Fiscal Year to Date April - June 2014 Coupon Issuance Issue Gross Maturing Net Gross Maturing Net 2-Year 96 106 (10) 288 322 (34) 2-Year FRN 41 0 41 82 0 82 3-Year 90 98 (8) 270 293 (23) 5-Year 105 110 (5) 315 294 21 7-Year 87 0 87 261 0 261 10-Year 66 27 39 198 86 112 30-Year 42 0 42 126 0 126 5-Year 5-Year TIPS 18 17 1 34 17 17 10-Year 10-Year TIPS 13 0 13 54 27 27 30-Year 30-Year TIPS 7 0 7 23 0 23 Coupon Subtotal 565 359 206 1,651 1,038 613 Total 1,766 1,755 11 5,449 4,909 540 *Keeping issuance sizes and patterns constant for Nominal Coupons, TIPS, and FRNs as of 03/31/2014, while using an average of ~1.45 Trillion of Bills Outstanding consistent with Treasury’s guidance of the FRN program replacing some Bills issuance. **Assumes an end-of-June 2014 cash balance of $130 billion versus a beginning-of-April 2014 cash balance of $142 billion. Financing Estimates released by the Treasury can be found via the following url: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart- 13 center/quarterly-refunding/Pages/Latest.aspx
OMB's Projections of Borrowing from the Public 1,000 80% 920 689 587 527 621 665 611 611 545 636 591 800 75% 600 70% 400 % of GDP $ bn 200 65% 0 FY 2014 - 2024 Cumulative Total 60% $ bn % Primary Deficit (220) -3% (200) Net Interest 5,800 83% Other 1,426 20% Total 7,006 (400) 55% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fiscal Year Primary Deficit Net Interest Other Debt Held by Debt Held by Public as a Percent of GDP - RHS Public Net of Financial Assets as a Percent of GDP - RHS OMB’s projections of net borrowing from the public are from Table S-13 of the “Fiscal Year 2015 Budget of the U.S. Government.” Data labels at the top represent the change in debt held by the public in $ billions. “Other” represents borrowing from the public to provide direct and 14 guaranteed loans.
Recommend
More recommend
