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To What Extent Does Immigration Lead to Displacement Effects and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
To What Extent Does Immigration Lead to Displacement Effects and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
To What Extent Does Immigration Lead to Displacement Effects and Subdued Growth in Earnings for UK Workers Jessica Green Introduction Figure 1: Long-Term International Migration into and out of the UK 45% increase What Migration is a
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Figure 1: Long-Term International Migration into and out of the UK
45% increase
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Migration is a dominant topic within public debate
Why Why
Rising unemployment post recession yet historically high levels of immigration Lack of focus in public debate on the nature of labour markets dominated by migrants
How
Shed light on the nature of ‘low paid, low skilled’ labour markets
What
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Methodology
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Displacement Of Workers Short Run Dampening Of Wages
- Small but positive effect
- Negative impacts for the lower
end of the wage distribution
- Small, negative impact overall,
with the effect being most evident for low skilled workers.
- Very little effect on native
employment
- Negative relationship between
immigration and native employment during periods of negative growth
- Intermediate and lower skilled
experiencing the greatest effect
Literature Review
Labour economic theory details the impacts on wages and employment from a supply side shock of immigration; wages fall whilst native workers are displaced.
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i.
- Does immigration lead to displacement of native
workers; particularly for the lowest skill distribution group?
ii.
- Does immigration lead to subdued growth in native
wages; particularly for the lowest skill distribution group?
iii.
- Can immigration be solely responsible for the subdued
growth in wages at the lowest skill distribution group?
Research Questions
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Methodology
Time series analysis carried out over a 17 longitudinal period (2000-2016) which includes key policy decisions and macroeconomic factors, which may influence migration trends and labour market impacts. UK Employment Levels LFS Time Series Analysis UK Employment Rates – Skill Level OECD Time Series Analysis Skill-cell approach Median Earnings Levels – UK and Boston LFS ASHE Panal Analysis ‘Low skilled, low pay’ Median Earnings Levels – Boston and five comparable regions LFS ASHE Spatial Analysis ‘Low-skilled, low-pay’ i) i) ii) iii)
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Findings
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24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000 31,000 32,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands ('000) Employment Levels (UK born) Employment levels (Non-UK)
Source: ONS, (2017c). ‘Labour Force Survey – Employment level nationality ’, January 2000- December 2016 [accessed through ONS on 11/01/2017].
Employment Levels by Nationality
196% increase 5% increase
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Employment Levels by Nationality
Source: ONS, (2017c). ‘Labour Force Survey – Employment level nationality ’, January 2000- December 2016 [accessed through ONS on 11/01/2017].
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Employment Rates by Skill Level
Source: OECD, (2017). ‘Employment rates by place of birth and educational attainment (25-64’ 2005-2015 [Accessed 10th March 2017].
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 £
UK Boston
Source: ONS, (2017a). ‘Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings,’ 2000-2016 [accessed through NOMIS on 8/03/2017]
Nominal Median Earnings 2000-2016
50% increase 39% increase
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2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 100 200 300 400 500 600 Boston Daventry Oadby and Wingston Corby Adur East Dorset
Immigration level
Earnings (£)
Median Earnings Immigration Levels
Source: ONS, (2017a). ‘Annual Survey of hours and earnings,’ 2000-2016, and ONS, (2017b) ‘Census 2011’ [accessed from NOMIS on 20/02/2017]
Median Earnings and Immigration Levels 2011
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Source: ONS, (2017a). ‘Annual Survey of hours and earnings,’ 2000-2016, and ONS, (2017b) ‘Census 2011’ [accessed from NOMIS on 20/02/2017]
Median Earnings and Immigration Levels 2011
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
- Growth in employment levels; displacement effects difficult to prove
- Boston identified as a ‘low-skilled, low-pay’ labour market; prone to slow growth in
earnings
- Five similar regions
- Differing levels of immigration
- Similar adverse effects from the recession
- No clear indication that high immigration levels are associated with slow growth
in wages resulting from the EU enlargement
- The nature and characteristics of ‘low-pay, low-skill’ which attract migrants should be
considered as a key influencer in wage determination.
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Future Research
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- Outcomes of BREXIT
- Incorporating non EU migration into analysis
- Investment in training and education for low-skilled natives
- Reviewing outcomes of policies for low-skilled workers
Future research and Policy Recommendations
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