Threats and Analysis Bruno Crpon J-PAL Course Overview 1. What is - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Threats and Analysis Bruno Crépon J-PAL

Course Overview 1. What is Evaluation? 2. Outcomes, Impact, and Indicators 3. Why Randomize and Common Critiques 4. How to Randomize 5. Sampling and Sample Size 6. Threats and Analysis 7. Project from Start to Finish 8. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Scaling Up

Lecture Overview A. Attrition B. Spillovers C. Partial Compliance and Sample Selection Bias D. Intention to Treat & Treatment on Treated E. Choice of outcomes F. External validity G. Conclusion

Lecture Overview A. Attrition B. Spillovers C. Partial Compliance and Sample Selection Bias D. Intention to Treat & Treatment on Treated E. Choice of outcomes F. External validity G. Conclusion

Attrition A. Is it a problem if some of the people in the experiment vanish before you collect your data? A. It is a problem if the type of people who disappear is correlated with the treatment. B. Why is it a problem? A. Loose the key property of RCT: two identical populations C. Why should we expect this to happen? A. Treatment may change incentives to participate in the survey

Attrition bias: an example A. The problem you want to address: A. Some children don ’ t come to school because they are too weak (undernourished) B. You start a school feeding program and want to do an evaluation A. You have a treatment and a control group C. Weak, stunted children start going to school more if they live next to a treatment school D. First impact of your program: increased enrollment. E. In addition, you want to measure the impact on child ’ s growth A. Second outcome of interest: Weight of children F. You go to all the schools (treatment and control) and measure everyone who is in school on a given day G. Will the treatment-control difference in weight be over-stated or understated?

Before Treatment After Treament T C T C 20 22 20 20 25 27 25 25 30 32 30 30 Ave. Difference Difference

Before Treatment After Treament T C T C 20 22 20 20 25 27 25 25 30 32 30 30 25 25 27 25 Ave. Difference 0 Difference 2

What if only children > 21 Kg come to school?

What if only children > 21 Kg come to school? Before Treatment After Treament 32% T C T C 20 22 20 20 25 27 25 25 23% 23% 30 32 30 30 A. Will you underestimate the impact? 14% B. Will you overestimate the impact? 9% C. Neither D. Ambiguous E. Don’t know A. B. C. D. E.

What if only children > 21 Kg come to school absent the program? Before Treatment After Treament T C T C 22 [absent] [absent] [absent] 25 27 25 25 30 32 30 30 27,5 27,5 27 27,5 Ave. Difference 0 Difference -0,5

When is attrition not a problem? 60% A. When it is less than 25% of the original sample B. When it happens in the same proportion in both groups C. When it is correlated 25% with treatment assignment 10% D. All of the above 5% E. None of the above 0% A. B. C. D. E.

Attrition Bias A. Devote resources to tracking participants in the experiment B. If there is still attrition, check that it is not different in treatment and control. Is that enough? C. Good indication about validity of the first order property of the RCT: A. Compare outcomes of two populations that only differ because one of them receive the program D. Internal validity

Attrition Bias A. If there is attrition but with the same response rate between test and control groups. Is this a problem? B. It can C. Assume only 50% of people in the test group and 50% in the control group answered the survey D. The comparison you are doing is a relevant parameter of the impact but… on the population of respondent E. But what about the population of non respondent A. You know nothing! B. Program impact can be very large on them,… or zero,… or negative! F. External validity might be at risk

Lecture Overview A. Attrition B. Spillovers C. Partial Compliance and Sample Selection Bias D. Intention to Treat & Treatment on Treated E. Choice of outcomes F. External validity G. Conclusion

What else could go wrong? Not in evaluation Targe get t Total al Popula lati tion on Popula lati tion on Treatment Group Evaluation Random Sample Assignment Control Group

Spillovers, contamination Not in evaluation Targe get t Total al Popula lati tion on Popula lati tion on Treatment  Treatment Group Evaluation Random Sample Assignment Control Group

Spillovers, contamination Not in evaluation Targe get t Total al Popula lati tion on Popula lati tion on Treatment  Treatment Group Evaluation Random Sample Assignment Control Group

Example: Vaccination for chicken pox A. Suppose you randomize chicken pox vaccinations within schools A. Suppose that prevents the transmission of disease, what problems does this create for evaluation? B. Suppose externalities are local? How can we measure total impact?

Externalities Within School Without Externalities School A Treated? Outcome Pupil 1 Yes no chicken pox Total in Treatment with chicken pox Pupil 2 No chicken pox Total in Control with chicken pox Pupil 3 Yes no chicken pox Treament Effect Pupil 4 No chicken pox Pupil 5 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 6 No chicken pox With Externalities Suppose, because prevalence is lower, some children are not re-infected with chicken pox School A Treated? Outcome Pupil 1 Yes no chicken pox Total in Treatment with chicken pox Pupil 2 No no chicken pox Total in Control with chicken pox Pupil 3 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 4 No chicken pox Treatment Effect Pupil 5 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 6 No chicken pox

Externalities Within School Without Externalities School A Treated? Outcome Pupil 1 Yes no chicken pox Total in Treatment with chicken pox 0% Pupil 2 No chicken pox Total in Control with chicken pox 100% Pupil 3 Yes no chicken pox Treament Effect Pupil 4 No chicken pox -100% Pupil 5 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 6 No chicken pox With Externalities Suppose, because prevalence is lower, some children are not re-infected with chicken pox School A Treated? Outcome Pupil 1 Yes no chicken pox Total in Treatment with chicken pox 0% 67% Pupil 2 No no chicken pox Total in Control with chicken pox Pupil 3 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 4 No chicken pox Treatment Effect -67% Pupil 5 Yes no chicken pox Pupil 6 No chicken pox

How to measure program impact in the presence of spillovers? A. Design the unit of randomization so that it encompasses the spillovers B. If we expect externalities that are all within school: A. Randomization at the level of the school allows for estimation of the overall effect

Example: Price Information A. Providing farmers with spot and futures price information by mobile phone B. Should we expect spillovers? C. Randomize: individual or village level? D. Village level randomization A. Less statistical power B. “ Purer control groups ” E. Individual level randomization A. More statistical power (if spillovers small) B. But spillovers might bias the measure of impact

Example: Price Information A. Actually can do both together! B. Randomly assign villages into one of four groups, A, B and C C. Group A Villages A. SMS price information to randomly selected 50% of individuals with phones B. Two random groups: Test A and Control A D. Group B Villages A. No SMS price information E. Allow to measure the true effect of the program: Test A/B F. Allow also to measure the spillover effect: Control A/B

Lecture Overview A. Attrition B. Spillovers C. Partial Compliance and Sample Selection Bias D. Intention to Treat & Treatment on Treated E. Choice of outcomes F. External validity G. Conclusion

Sample selection bias A. Sample selection bias could arise if factors other than random assignment influence program allocation A. Even if intended allocation of program was random, the actual allocation may not be

Sample selection bias A. Individuals assigned to comparison group could attempt to move into treatment group A. School feeding program: parents could attempt to move their children from comparison school to treatment school B. Alternatively, individuals allocated to treatment group may not receive treatment A. School feeding program: some students assigned to treatment schools bring and eat their own lunch anyway, or choose not to eat at all.

Non compliers What can you do? Not in Can you switch them? evaluation Targe get t No! Popula lati tion on Participants Treatment group Evaluation Random No-Shows Sample Assignment Non- Control group Participants Cross-overs 28

Non compliers What can you do? Not in Can you drop them? evaluation Targe get t No! Popula lati tion on Participants Treatment group Evaluation Random No-Shows Sample Assignment Non- Control group Participants Cross-overs 29

Non compliers Not in You can compare the evaluation original groups Targe get t Popula lati tion on Participants Treatment group Evaluation Random No-Shows Sample Assignment Non- Control group Participants Cross-overs 30

Lecture Overview A. Attrition B. Spillovers C. Partial Compliance and Sample Selection Bias D. Intention to Treat & Treatment on Treated E. Choice of outcomes F. External validity G. Conclusion