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This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This presentation has been prepared by EDP Renovveis, S.A. (the "Company ; LEI 529900MUFAH07Q1TAX06) solely for use at the presentation to be made on October, 2017. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading
2 This presentation has been prepared by EDP Renováveis, S.A. (the "Company“; LEI 529900MUFAH07Q1TAX06) solely for use at the presentation to be made on October, 2017. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and
- restrictions. Therefore, this presentation may not be distributed to the press or any other person, and may not be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part for any other
purpose without the express consent in writing of the Company. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified by any of the Company's advisors. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States. No securities of the Company have been registered under U.S. securities laws, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of U.S. securities laws and applicable state securities laws. Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intends”, “estimate”, “will”, “may”, "continue”, “should” and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward- looking statements include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; developments of the Company’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of the Company’s competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company’s records and other data available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company or industry results to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements. The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice unless required by applicable law. The Company and its respective agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.
Notes: As of Jun-17: Installed capacity includes EDPR’s Equity consolidated: 177 MW in Spain and 179 MW in the US; Includes 85 MW of Solar PV;
3
#1 #3 #2 #3 #4
1,253 MW 2,371 MW 71 MW
Offshore under develop ment
418 MW 521 MW 144 MW 30 MW 4,811 MW 204 MW
Offshore under develop ment
406 MW 200 MW
4
Quality assets
Ongoing renewable competitiveness improvement…
Renewables are a competitive and cheap technology (wind LCoE -66% since 20091) to cope with the increasing energy demand and the need of a low carbon economy
Quality assets
…supporting increasing growth in main markets…
Solid specific market fundamentals, namely in the US despite new macro landscape, based on clear bipartisan support along with state level targets, coal shut-down plans and C&I2 increasing market
Quality assets
…with EDPR well positioned to benefit from its 2020 strategy
A strong renewable sponsor exposed to attractive markets, with clear competitive advantages supported by unique core competences on project development, PPAs origination & asset management (O&M strategy and low-risk profile)
(1) Source: Lazard´s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis from Jan-2017; (2) Commercial & Industrial companies
5
7
2016-2020 2016-2020 2016-2020
c.700
MW/year
>70%
till 2020
Solar & Offshore
Prioritize quality investments in our core markets High visibility on projects w/ LT contracts awarded Technological mix initiatives
>97.5%
availability
33%
in 2020
- 1%
CAGR 2015-20
Technical expertise to maximize production Competitive projects leading to a superior load factor Unique O&M strategy to keep lowering Core Opex/MW
€3.9bn
RCF up to €1.1bn €550m signed c.€600m new
€4.8bn
investments
Investing in visible growth opportunities Profitable assets generating robust Retained Cash Flow Asset Rotation strategy to keep enhancing value growth
- 1. Selective growth
- 2. Operational excellence
- 3. Self-funded business
8
Increasing 2014-17 Business Plan… …into a new with stronger capacity additions and technological mix Capacity Additions (MW; %)
Total of 3.5 GW capacity additions 65% 10% 15%
700 MW/year
2016-2020 North America1 Brazil Europe 10% Solar PV
Drivers
Wind Onshore: fully competitive technology Solar PV: Increasing its competitiveness
Capacity Additions (MW; %)
Total of 2 GW capacity additions
60% 20% 20%
500 MW/year
2014-2017 United States Emerging Markets Europe Projects with long-term visibility & low risk profile
Notes: (1) North America includes: US, Canada and Mexico
100% of PTCs value if installed until 2020
under safe-harbor conditions (5% capex invested in 2016)
9
Capacity additions (GW)
under negotiation/identified secured 2016 2018 2019 2017 2020 Full PTC ($23/MWh1) 80% PTC1 60% PTC1 (until 2022) Start of construction… 40% PTC1 (until 2023) 2021
Built TX; OH; NY 2016 429 Arkwright New York 2018 78 Meadow Lake V Indiana 2017 100 Quilt Block Wisconsin 2017 98 Red Bed Oklahoma 2017 99
Project Name CoD State 1.2 GW already secured >60% secured with non-utilities
Turtle Creek Iowa 2018 200
1.8 GW
2016-2020 60% Secured
Option to grow 3.1 GW
with safe harbor
Meadow Lake VI Indiana 2018 150
Production Tax Credits scheme phase-down EDPR strategy under “safe-harbour conditions” to maximize projects returns
(1) PTC value in 2015 of $23/MWh
MW …end of construction
>65%
Hog Creek Ohio 2017 66
10
MEXICO CANADA
100 MW Nation Rise Wind Farm 200 MW Eólica de Coahuila Completed 200 MW1 wind farm with 25-year PPA In operation 2016 project 100 MW wind farm in Ontario 20-year supply contract Under development 2019 project All projects with PPAs already awarded Platforms for future growth in promising markets
(1) In partnership with Grupo Bal, owner of Industrias Peñoles
11
Europe to represent c.15% of EDPR growth plan
+0.6 GW
Target 2016-2020
Capacity Additions (MW) Portugal Italy France Spain
Portugal
Completion of Ventinveste projects 20-year feed-in tariff
+0.2 GW
Spain
Projects awarded in Jan-16 very high load factor and low capex
<0.1 GW
France
Identified & pipeline projects feed-in tariff1
+0.1 GW
Italy
Auction based system with 0.2 GW
- f projects already awarded
+0.2 GW
(1) Projects which requested tariff in 2016 will be receiving a 15y CfD; projects that will request tariff in 2017 are expected to be granted a 20y CfD
> 45 % load factor
12
BRAZIL
120 MW Baixa do Feijão
project completed in 1Q16 awarded in 2011
+
263 MW
2017-18 projects awarded in 2013-15
+
New auctions opportunities 120 MW Baixa do Feijão 127 MW JAU & Aventura 137 MW Babilônia
Projects with PPAs already awarded
Increased profitability due to higher production and increasing auction prices
PPA price inflation linked mid/high double digit IRR
13
EDPR 2016-20 additions breakdown Different markets dynamics
United States The core growth market boosted by ITC extension Europe, Brazil & Mexico Developing options based on projects’ fundamentals
(1) ITC - Investment Tax Credit; (2) Comprises 3 solar PV projects in South Carolina with qualified facilities for the entire production over 15 years period
By technology (MW) 60 MW already under construction in the US (qualified facility for 15 yrs)2 Wind Onshore
+3.5 GW
2016-2020 Solar PV 10% 10% ITC 2016 2020 2021 … 2022 Full ITC (30% capex) 26% ITC 22% ITC Start of construction… … …end of construction
US: ITC scheme1
ITC scheme in place to benefit Solar technology 2023
14
FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM
Moray Firth CfD1 awarded in Sep-17 auction EDP/Engie joint-venture (77%/23%)
950 MW
Completion expected until 2022 MoU signed with CTG for partnership (c. 20%) Le Tréport
500 MW + 500 MW
Iles d’Yeu et de Noirmoutier Partnership with Engie allows de-risking and complementary skills Selected in May-14 for the development, construction and operation Offshore projects to represent less than 10% of total investment needs through 2020 and to be developed through partnerships with expected CoD after 2020
(1) CfD – Contract for Difference; awarded at GBP 57.5/MWh in 2012 real prices
PPA awarded CfD awarded
15
Delivering second-to-none metrics based on unique wind assessment know-how… …to maximize asset value
Predictive maintenance and O&M strategy key to reduce downtime Accretive contribution from US, Mexico, Canada and Brazil Technical Availability (%) Load Factor (%) 30% 2015 (P50) 2020E 97.6% > 97.5% 2015 2020E Growth supported by distinctive competences and accretive projects Production (TWh) 21.4 2015 2020E CAGR +3pp +10%
16
Cost Control Revenue Maximization
Ongoing implementation of innovative power enhancing products Comprehensive O&M strategy to increase efficiency Keep high levels
- f availability
Discipline over G&A costs
Maximizing operating wind farms output Reduction of downtimes by managing warehousing
- f critical components
Comprehensive cost control management Successfully implementation of M3(1) and Self-Perform (higher insourcing of services)
>97.5%
MW
~30%
retrofits IT Consulting Legal Travelling …
(1) Proprietary model (M3 - Modular Maintenance Model).
add vortex cut-out max uprate power
2020E
17
Strong focus on efficiency and cost control benefiting from economies of scale and… …supported by a superior and higher efficient O&M strategy… …leading to improvements in efficiency ratios Core Opex ~80% Levies & Other Core Opex1 per MWh
2015 2020E CAGR
- 3%
Core Opex1 per MW
2015 2020E CAGR
- 1%
Operating Costs breakdown (2016-2020)
(1) Core Opex - Supplies & Services and Personnel Costs
18
Portfolio by O&M contract type
~70% ~50%
2015 2020E Higher exposure to M3 and Self perform driven by full scope contracts expiration
Full scope M3 & Self perform
Unique O&M strategy at the end of initial contract warranty
(%; MW) lower costs Full Scope M3 & SP
100% 90%-70%
Insource more activities: preventative, logistics & small correctives Segregate & insource main maintenance activities Self-perform (SP)
EDPR ISP1 OEM2 EDPR
Segregating and keeping in-house high value-added activities, minimizing OEM dependency and increasing efficiency Modular Maintenance Model (M3)
OEM2
(1) ISP - Independent Service Provider; (2) OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer
EBITDA growth supported by new and accretive capacity additions along with increased efficiency
19
EBITDA growth (vs. 2015 Adjusted; € million) €1.07bn 2015 adj. 2020E CAGR Expected EBITDA growth drivers MW Addition Efficiency Other Items1 +11% CAGR +0.5% CAGR
- 3.5%
CAGR New MW in operation MW with higher profitability Ex-MW growth performance Opex efficiency O&M strategy US 10-yr PTCs expiration Tariffs and GC expiration
+8%
(1) Impact from PTCs (Production Tax Credits), GC (Green Certificates) and (FiT) Feed-in Tariffs expiration
20
Quality portfolio generating robust RCF1 Rigorous investment plan to deliver solid returns
Retained Cash Flow (€ billion) 6.8 3.9
EBITDA
Cumulative for 2016-2020
Interest & TEI costs Minorities Distributions Taxes & Other2 RCF
2016-2020
€4.8bn
Capex & Financial Investments
Onshore + Solar PV Offshore > 90% < 10% €120m/year
New Asset Rotation
(based on projects with PPAs)
Cumulative Asset Rotation
(including already signed in 2016)
up to €0.6bn
€1.1 bn
(1) Retained Cash Flow; (2) Other include Associates and Non-cash items
Source
- f Funds
Use
- f Funds
21
1 2
Self-funding Strategy (1) Accelerate value growth
Interests Dividends Operating Cash-Flow Asset Rotation Allowing the execution
- f additional market
- pportunities
with superior returns Crystallise projects’ NPV, capturing value created
IRR double-digit
Re-investing
IRR single-digit
Selling
>
&
Investment
(1) Illustrative and non-exhaustive
…and to maintain a self-funding strategy
22
Proceeds are re-invested in the development of quality and value accretive projects, enhancing its growth and accelerating value creation
(1) Including all cash-flows generated by the projects since inception; (2) also considers an additional 30 MW under development
In 2017 EDPR executed a minority sale transaction with CTG, related to certain assets in Portugal, at a multiple of €1.7/MW
Scope Implied EV/MW
€1.3m
€1.9m1
270 MW
49%
C$3.3m
C$3.3m1
30 MW
49%
$1.5m
$2.3m1
1,101 MW
36%
$3.1m
n/a
30 MW
49%
$1.7m
$2.4m1
1,002 MW
34%
€1.7m n/a 348 MW 49% of total 664 MW 54 MW 191 MW 71 MW €2.1m n/a 100 MW2
49%
CTG
- Higher than 700 MW target;
- +629 MW in NA; +120 MW in BR; +72 MW in EU
- Backed by scale, O&M strategy and cost control
- 97.7% of availability
- From young portfolio mostly exposed to PPA/FIT
- EBITDA (+12% adj. YoY) high cash conversion
- Executed 50% of 2016-2020 target (€1.1bn)
- Transactions executed at attractive multiples
- Benefitting from €2.3bn debt restructured/prepaid
- Net debt & TEI at €4.3bn
25
Capacity additions +820 MW
- 5% YoY
€698m RCF €550m proceeds 4.0% Cost of Debt
(Dec-2016)
Efficiency: Core opex/MW Cash generation Asset Rotation Debt optimization
EDPR distributed €0.05 dividend per share
26
By technology (MW) Built in 2016/1H17 & Secured
+3.5 GW
2016-20 Solar PV >70% 8%
EDPR 2016-20 additions breakdown with visible projects execution
Wind Onshore US Canada Brazil Growth supported by 1.7 GW of secured projects to be built in 2017-19, of which 633 MW under construction Portugal RoE Spain Built Name
ML V, QB, RBP, HC, PG Solar TC, ML VI, ARS Nation Rise JAU & Aventura Babilônia Ventinveste & other Auction projects Italian auction & other France & Belgium projects Capacity additions
CoD
2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2017-19E <2020E 2017-18E 2017-18E 2016
MW
423 429 100 127 137 235 93 141 59 820
(1) As of June-2017
27
2017 Outlook: Operational and Cash Generation targets
EDPR strategy execution set to deliver solid and profitable growth
- Avg. MW in Operation
Benefitting from 2016 new capacity additions; 820 MW instated in 2016
Load Factor
Positive impact from new projects & wind resource recovery (P50)
Selling price
New competitive projects w/ higher load factor; 95%
- f 2017 revenues fixed not exposed to market prices
+7-9%
YoY
c.32%
+5% YoY
c.€58
per MWh
Opex per MW
Keeping high efficiency levels; vs target -1% CAGR 15-20E
flat YoY
- 3% CAGR 15-17E
EBITDA (€ million) Retained Cash Flow (€ million) 1,171 2016 2017E 698 2016 2017E ~+10% +10-15%
28
(1) 2015 EBITDA and Net Profit adjusted by non-recurrent events; EBITDA 2015 Adjusted of €1.07bn; (2) Net Profit 2015 Adjusted of €108m
…a positive impact on accounting Net Income from 2017 onwards Update on D&A leading to…
Adjusted Net Income guidance
Higher assets’ useful life based on independent technical assessment EDPR’s portfolio is composed by young assets across 11 countries 30 years
- vs. 25 years
6.5 years
- f avg. life
EBITDA
CAGR 2015-20201
+8% €0.9bn
Retained Cash Flow
2020E
EDPR reiterates its key 2020 BP targets +16% CAGR 2015-202 (@ 25 years) D&A impact +€65-70m per year
30
(1) Ex-forex; (2) Based on status at Jun-2017; (3) RCF stands for Retained Cash Flow; +21% YoY if adjusted for 1H17 non-recurrent event
Quality assets Quality assets 97.8% availability
vs 97.9% in 1H16; benefitting from predictive maintenance and O&M strategy
96% of Revenues fixed for 20172
€60/MWh avg. selling price in line with guidance
34% load factor vs 33% in 1H16
100% of long-term average (P50)
Core Opex/Avg. MW -1% YoY1
backed by O&M strategy and scale
Quality assets Selective and profitable growth €719m EBITDA (+11% YoY)
EU 49% (-5% YoY); NA 49%; BR 2%
Quality assets Self-funding business €574m RCF3 (+41% YoY; +21% adj.)
from young assets exposed mostly to PPA/FiT
+707 MW installed YoY
annual target of 0.7 GW; 633 MW already under construction
>70% of 2020 target secured
target +3.5 GW of additions in 2016-20
Reported Net Profit €134m
- Adj. net profit €122m (+16% YoY)
€248m from minority sales
strategic partnership with CTG (PT assets)
€16m Net Debt & TEI decrease
growth financed from assets’ cash generation and minority sales (CTG)
Lower cost of debt at 3.9%
€2.7bn restructured & prepaid since 1Q16
31
707 MW added YoY and 633 MW already under construction In the 1H17 where added 21 MW of which 18 MW of wind in France and 3 MW of solar PV in Portugal
(1) Incl. equity consolidated: 177 MW in SP & 179 MW in the US
10.4 GW
Spain 23% Portugal 12% Rest of Europe 15% Brazil 2% North America 48%
Installed Capacity1 (EBITDA MW + Equity Consolidated)
Average Installed Capacity increased +8% YoY
Under Construction
+502 MW +428 MW +4 MW +79 MW
- +200 MW
YoY Additions
+633 MW +707 MW +127 MW
EDPR Availability1
32
1H17 39% 28% 36%
97.8%
34%
- 1.6pp
+2.7pp +6.5pp +0.7pp
D% YoY
- 0.1pp
Load factor at 34% (vs 33% in the 1H16) reflecting a normalized wind resource in the period (100% of P50) along with capacity additions with higher load factors, and avoiding 12 mt CO2 emissions. 1H17 vs. Average (P50)
Load Factor and Technical Availability
(1) Technical Energy Availability (TEA)
EDPR Quarterly Load Factor vs. long-term average (%)
Q17 Q16
+7%
- 7%
- 3%
- 11%
+1%
- 1%
- 1Q
2Q 3Q 4Q
100% 108% 100% 99%
13.3 +1.2 (0.0) 14.5 1H16 Capacity Growth 1H17
33
Electricity Production (TWh)
EDPR produced 14.5 TWh of clean energy in the 1H17 (+9% YoY), avoiding 12 mt of CO2 emissions Geographical output breakdown 1H17: 56% in North America, 42% in Europe and 2% in Brazil TWh r% YoY
- 5%
Impacted by outstanding wind resource in the 1H16 vs 1H17 (P50: 107% vs 99%)
+53%
Reflecting mainly the capacity additions with higher wind resource
+21%
Impact from capacity additions with above average load factors
+9% D Load Factor
€59.9 €59.9 1H16 1H17
EDPR Price Evolution (€/MWh)
34
Selling price stable YoY reflecting the higher price in Europe, which offset the mix effect (production vs price) of new capacity in Brazil 1H17 r% YoY1 €82.6 +4%
- Propelled by higher realized price in
Spain (+12% YoY)
- Poland: lower pricing (-4% YoY) due to
GC price evolution
R$224
- 16%
- Reflecting a different mix of a new
wind farm in operation
$46.5
- 0.1%
- US: PPA (-2% YoY; different mix
profile); Non-PPA (-3% YoY)
- CA flat YoY & MX avg price at $56
- (1) Evolution calculated in local currency
889 988 1H16 1H17
35
Increased YoY revenues supported by higher installed capacity, pricing and positive impact of forex translations,
- ffsetting the negative impact from lower load factor of previously installed capacity
Revenues (€ million)
+1% Quality assets: +8% Avg. MW YoY High availability: 97.8% New MW in operation: +€73m YoY Higher output: +9% YoY Higher NCF (34% vs 33% 1H16) with new MW
- 5% EU, +21% NA and +53% Brazil
Stable average selling price: €60/MWh Additions mix and higher Spanish price Positive forex translation (+€16m YoY)
Main drivers for Revenues performance
262 289 1H16 1H17
36
Opex (excludes Other Operating Income) (€ million)
+9% Core Opex/Avg. MW (€k)
(Supplies & Services and Personnel Costs) Core Opex(1) Levies & Non-recurrent
(1) Includes Supplies and Services and Personnel Costs
+1%
+€10m YoY: +MWs & property taxes timing
- 1% ex-fx
Core Opex per average MW ex-forex decreased 1% YoY, reflecting costs control Core Opex per MWh unchanged YoY at €14 (-2% YoY if fx adjusted) +9% 20.3 20.6 1H16 1H17
37
EBITDA per Region(1) (%)
(1) Includes hedges gains in Spain, Rest of Europe and US
648 719 1H16 1H17
EBITDA (€ million)
In the 1H17, EBITDA increased +11% to €719m (73% margin) and unitary EBITDA per MW in operation totaled €72k (+3% YoY)
€719m
Spain 18% Portugal 16% Rest of Europe 15% Brazil 2% North America 49% +11%
38
In July 2017 EDPR closed $370m of new Tax Equity structure (297 MW; US), representing the largest ever ticket closed with single investor
Financial Results1 €145m
- 21% YoY
Tax Equity
€1,129m Financial Debt Cost of Debt Ongoing reduction in interests costs benefitting from:
- €2.7bn restructured & prepaid 1Q 2016;
- Early amortization in Dec-16: $364m bearing 7.7%
cost with maturity scheduled for 2018/19;
- Fiscal benefits’ efficient utilization: +$0.4bn in 2H16;
- Benefitting from downward trend on TEI return;
Cost of TEI
(€0.4bn)
YoY
3.9%
(vs 4.4% Jun-16)
6.9%
in 1H17
€3,405m
Financial Debt Net Debt €3,130m
(1) Includes Share of profit of associates
1H17 EBITDA to Net Profit (€ million)
r€m YoY Change in depreciation schedule from 25 to 30 years despite high capacity YoY +€34m As a result of lower D&A costs +€105m Lower cost of debt after negotiations; & YoY comparison impacted by €22m 1H16 one-off +€39m Effective Tax Rate of 23%
- €28m
Due to assets’ life extension to30 years and CTG (IT & PL) & Asset Rotation (EU)
- €39m
Reflecting higher YoY Revenues, positively impacted by new MW, higher selling price and fx +€71m Net Profit totalled €134m (+16% adjusted YoY) +€75m
39
(1) Includes Share of profit of associates
134 459 719 108 71 145 260 D&A EBIT Taxes Minorities Financial Results EBITDA Net Profit
(1)
Assets’ life extension
40
1H17: Retained Cash Flow (RCF) (€ million)
719 +72 (27) (141) (49) 574 EBITDA LT receivables & cash adjustments RCF Dividends & interests to Minorities Current income taxes Interests, TEI, fees & derivatives
Quality assets delivering cash-flow generation mostly from PPA and Feed-in Tariffs Lower interests costs from €2.7bn restructured/prepaid since 1Q16 with cost of debt at 3.9% (vs 4.4% in Jun-16) RCF of €574m (+41% YoY) propelled by a non-recurrent event (+€83m; 1H17); RCF +21% YoY if adjusted by such event
RCF YoY increase on the back of operational and financial performance enhancing EDPR growth +41%1 +11%
Impacted by higher benefits realized in Tax Equity partnerships
(1) RCF +21% YoY increase if adjusted by a non-recurrent event in the 1H17; RCF is net cash-flow generated by operations and available to re-invest, distribute and pay debt principal
41
(1) Cash investments include Capex, Net financial investments and Changes in working capital related with PPE suppliers and Government Grants
1H17 from RCF to Debt and TEI variance (€ million)
Gross Debt €3.4bn 32% Loans with EDP 55% TEI €1.1bn 60% Other & TEI 45% Debt and TEI Currency Type 574 +248 (728) (44) (34) 16 RCF r Net Debt and TEI (reduction) Asset Rotation & CTG Cash Invest.1 Dividends to EDPR Shareholders Forex & Other
1H17 Debt and TEI Breakdown (%)
+41%
42
Solid cash generation from young assets with long-term contracts and delivering sound Net Profit Solid 1H17 with wind resource in line with expectations with +9% YoY GWh Top Line evolution benefitting from new MW, pricing and fx, along with O&M initiatives and cost control Delivering growth targets, with 633 MW already under construction (incl. 60 MW of Solar PV in the US) BP 2016-20 execution on track with 1H17 performance in line with FY17 guidance
Wind onshore is today amongst the cheapest and most competitive technologies
44
Levelised Cost of Energy1 (LCoE) (€/MWh, 2016)
Today 2020 2030 Today 2020 2030 (10%) (17%) (37%) Long-lasting technology with decreasing LCoE
Wind Onshore
Set to be a highly competitive technology
Solar PV Indexed LCoE2 (€/MWh)
76-86 92-100 95-117 61-106 50-70 69-98 90 -168
CCGT Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind
- nshore
Solar PV Wind
- ffshore
(22%)
Wind already competes with all sources of energy… …and Solar PV is set to increase its attractiveness
(1) EDPR Analysis for European Market, NCF: Onshore @ 27%-36% ; Solar PV-one axis tracking @ 23%-27%; Offshore @ 45%-50%; (2) Analysis for an average LCoE
Wind Onshore Solar PV Utility Solar PV C&I Solar PV Residential Wind Offshore 150 104 74 35 16
45
2016-20: Renewables Worldwide Additions1 (GW)
- OECD countries: (+) Transports’ electrification; (-) Energy efficiency
- Emerging markets: (+) Economic growth and infrastructure need
- Increasing energy imports in most of the developed countries
- EU imports more than 50% of its demand, while US only 15%
- Recent events have stressed the need to reduce dependency
Economy electrification Energy independence Regions with EDPR presence account for >65% of Wind and Solar PV (utility) additions
- New global agreement under COP21
- CO2 reduction targets in EU, US and China
- Replacement of old/retiring capacity (namely Coal)
Environmental concerns
+413 GW
Renewables2
Solid growth drivers in addition to its competitiveness
(1) IHS Global Renewable Market Forecast (2016); ex-China; (2) Incl. 34 GW of Solar CSP, Biomass, Geothermal, Small hydro & Ocean, not included in the graph
46
Europe short term opportunities to… …escalate medium term, supported by:
Short-term specific growth opportunities Expected additions in EDPR geographies
+24 GW
Solar PV (utility) Wind Onshore Wind Offshore
57% 27% 16%
2016-2020: Wind and Solar additions in Europe
- New governance based on national plans and EU coordination
- Competitive and sustainable energy (to replace retiring plants)
- Strengthen interconnection and improve energy security
Demand recovery and a common vision in Europe Regulation in Europe for renewables is evolving into ex-ante competition systems with long-term contracts (including: France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK)
- 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels
- ≥27% share of renewable energy consumption
EU 2030 targets
Source: IHS Global Renewable Market Forecast (2016)
47
EDPR’s strategy…
Good natural resources (load factor) Long-term contracts awarded thru competitive processes Strong renewable electricity demand
BRAZIL MEXICO
…for growth in selective countries with strong fundamentals
Wind the main growth driver Top-notch wind resource Inflation linked with local funding
+10% CAGR 15-20 c.50% Load factor Auctions
Mainly from wind onshore Competitive renewable resources Market recently re-designed
+15% CAGR 15-20 34%-45% Load factor Auction/PPAs
Source: IHS Global Renewable Market Forecast (2016) and BNEF
48
Wind competes for PPAs mainly in two different segments
- Several Sates need to comply with renewable quotas
- Market is based on REC systems and long-term PPA
1 RPS demand for new renewable builds 2
Wind vs CCGT: Levelised Cost of Energy
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gas price $/MBtu LCoE $/MWh Wind Load factor 23% 29% 34% 40% 46% 51% CCGT load factor @ 40% CCGT load factor @ 70% US shale gas price range
- Utilities need new long-term supply contracts
- In the windiest regions, wind and solar costs can beat
the price of a new CCGT Demand for new energy
EDPR analysis - Wind capex $2.0m/MW; No carbon tax considered; Gas prices are assumed flat in real terms
49
Wind vs CCGT: LCoE1
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Wind load factor Oil price $/bbl Recent oil prices LCoE €/MWh 23% 29% 34% 25% 21%
Wind Energy competes with the most efficient conventional technology Wind Energy Costs are unrelated to commodities, providing greater visibility
CCGT load factor @ 23% CCGT load factor @ 57% Legend:
(1) Source: EDPR Analysis, LCoE – Levelised Cost of Energy
51
Business case for renewables remains strong Wind energy provided 4.7% of the nation’s electricity during 20153 Industry Fundamentals
.New political landscape Production
Tax Reform
PTC phase-out approved in 2015 by a congress dominated by Republicans; New Treasury secretary supported current scheme in Senate hearings Wind is a competitive and cheap technology presenting an ongoing decrease of its LCoE (c.26% by 20251) Increasing demand drivers at State, Utility and C&I2 ; likely negative impact on CPP rollout but only in the next decade Clear positive impacts on job creation, local economy, industry and infrastructure development A key topic of the new Administration in functions (main consideration is the reduction of the current 35% federal tax rate) Bipartisan Support Technology Competitiveness Increasing Demand Pro-economic growth sector Tax Reform
pending final framework
=
likely positive
(1) LCoE source: IRENA Power to Change 2016; (2) Stands for Commercial and Industrial companies; (3) Source: AWEA
Main Drivers
52
$97 $60 $48 $46 $32 $136 $143 $78 $61 $62 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Nuclear Coal CCGT Solar PV Wind
Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison1 $/MWh
Source: (1) Lazard´s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis from Jan-2017; (2) Based on University of Texas: The Full Cost of Electricity of December 2016
$32
Expected reduction in wind LCoE of c.26% by 2025
Map of Lowest Cost Electricity Resource2 (unsubsidized; by region)
Wind Solar Utility Gas
$62 $61 $46
98 MW
(CoD 2017)
200 MW
(CoD 2018)
175 MW
(CoD 2017/18)
100 MW
(CoD 2016)
157 MW
(CoD 2016/17)
99 MW
(CoD 2017)
250 MW
(CoD 2016)
EDPR projects (secured 2016-18)
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RPS
Renewable Portfolio Standards Utilities´ Portfolio Demand Commercial & Industrial Entities
until 2030E; 49 GW since 2010
27 GW
Coal Retirement Utilities C&I
defined at state level RPS policies cover 55% of total US retail electricity sales 5 states increased quotas in 2016 (OR; IL; MI; NY; DC)
- fficially announced: coal-fired plants being shuttered
- ld & non-compliant w/ environmental constraints; independent of CO2 issues
23% of coal fleet retired or announced prior 2030 non-utilities companies incl. techs, industrials, cooperatives… fixed-long-term price protected from fuel price fluctuations 80 companies have pledged to move to 100% renewable power
29 states
+ DC
>50% PPAs
signed 2015
Source: (1) AWEA
54
Wind industry creates jobs, economic investment and clean energy across the country
Job creation Industry Local Economy Infrastructure
>500 wind manufacturing facilities
in 43 states
>600 manufacturing plants producing
goods for wind & solar across 45 states
Every state benefiting from wind
w/ manufacturing facility, wind farm, or both
Rural areas: land renting income
while enable agricultural and livestock farming
Source: AWEA; Business Insider; RTO Insider
Expected investments in transmission
lines and wind/solar to fuel economic growth Increases US
energy independence >300,000 Jobs
- n the wind/solar industry; more than coal
Wind and Solar jobs growing at a rate
12x faster vs the rest of the US
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A tax reform could potentially be overall positive, specially for solid sponsors, but it is still too early to fully assess its impacts
Asset Base New Projects
+$15m-$30m per year (Net Income) One-off positive impact in bottom-line
P&L Tax Provision
Reduction in the annual tax provision
BS Tax Assets & Liabilities
Liabilities (on future tax payments) higher than assets (related to tax losses carry forward) Lower tax rate would reduce 5y-MACRS’ value and lead to a lower tax equity funding along with investors’ lower tax appetite 100% capex expensing given the incremental time value benefit
A
Tax Equity market is attracting new investors every year and enlarging the supply base
C
Lower funding replaced by corporate debt at a lower cost (USD debt is issued in Spain – no impact on changes in interest deductibility)
B Analyzing the impact at EDPR of a potential reduction of Federal Tax Rate from 35% to 20%-25%
However to be potentially offset by…
56
0.4 1.8 3.1 +0.8 +0.6 +1.3 Visibility over PTC tax scheme Industry fundamentals driving solid ongoing demand (GW) EDPR is a strong sponsor with solid balance sheet and clear execution capabilities
1.2 GW secured >60% non-utility Option could be executed through the new “Build & Transfer” strategy, enhancing pipeline development >5 GW under continuous commercial efforts to secure PPAs Safe Harbor secured To be secured Additions SH1
- ption (100% PTC)
2020 target additions 2016 2017/18 secured
2016-20 EDPR target additions in the US
(1) Safe Harbor
IR Contacts
Rui Antunes, Head of IR, P&C and Sustainability Maria Fontes Pia Domecq Paloma Bastos-Mendes E-mail: ir@edpr.com Phone: +34 914 238 402 Fax: +34 914 238 429 Serrano Galvache 56, Edificio Olmo, 7th Floor 28033, Madrid - Spain
EDP Renováveis online
Site: www.edpr.com Link Results & Presentations: www.edpr.com/en/investors/investors-information/reports-and-results
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Oct 31st: 9M 2017 Results