There is no I in Communty Modelng AMS Conference on Broadcast - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology June 13, 2019

There is no “I” in Communty Modelng

– Forecasts are made by people:

• Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).
• Service Centers within the National Centers for Environmental

Prediction (NCEP). – Models provide guidance.

• Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models.
• Most models are run at NCEP.

– More than 20 major simulation codes. – More than 1600 support codes and scripts. – Billions of data ingested daily. – Millions of products delivered daily.

• Sharing with world wide partners:

– DoD, ECMWF, UK Met Office, JMA, …

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

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Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years

Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems

Forecast Lead Time

Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits

Maritime L i f e & P r

• p

e r t y S p a c e O p e r a t i

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s R e c r e a t i

• n

E c

• s

y s t e m E n v i r

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m e n t E m e r g e n c y M g m t A g r i c u l t u r e Reservoir Control Energy Planning C

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m e r c e H y d r

• p
• w

e r Fire Weather H e a l t h A v i a t i

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Spanning Weather and Climate

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• Short-Range Ensemble
• Global Forecast System
• North American Mesoscale
• Rapid Refresh
• Regional Hurricane
• Waves
• Global Ocean
• Space Weather
• Bays
• Storm Surge
• Global Dust
• Fire Wx
• Ozone
• Wave Ensemble
• Land DA
• HRRR
• Tsunami • Nearshore Wave
• National Water Model
• Dispersion (smoke)
• North American Ensemble Forecast System
• Climate Forecast System
• Global Ensemble Forecast System
• North American Multi-Model Ensemble System

NOAA’s Operational Numerical Model Guidance Suite

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FVCOM) SELFE)

Strategic Vision

Roadmap

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Starting from the quilt of models and products created by the implementing solutions rather than addressing requirements …. … we will move to a product based system that covers all present elements of the productions suite in a more systematic and efficient way

Strategic Vision

Key Elements

• Focus on products supporting mission requirements
• Unified modeling and data assimilation

– Coupled, ensemble based, reforecast and reanalysis – Including pre- and postprocessing, calibration, verification validation – Use NGGPS as a foundation to evolve a unified modeling system

• Focus on community modeling
• Evidence-driven decisions
• Same standards for all who contribute
• Transparent and robust governance

– Service requirements – Technical requirements / solutions – Collaborative prioritization and decision making

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Community-Based Development

The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is a comprehensive, community-based Earth modeling system, designed as both a research tool and as the basis for NOAA’s operational forecasts.

Transitioning at the UFS System Level

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System Architecture

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ESMF/NUOPC/NEMS architecture enables unified global coupled modeling and DA Consistent with broader NOAA (UMTF) and US vision (National ESPC)

Q3 FY 2019 FV3-GFS

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

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Improvements over operational GFS (GFSv14) in retrospective runs

✓ (significantly) Improved 500-hpa anomaly correlation (NH and SH) ✓ Intense tropical cyclone deepening in GFS not observed in FV3GFS ✓ FV3GFS tropical cyclone track forecasts improved (within 5 days) ✓ Warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation improved ✓ Multiple tropical cyclone centers generated by GFS not seen in FV3GFS forecasts or analyses ✓ General improvement in HWRF ✓ New simulated composite reflectivity output is a nice addition ✓ Some indication that fv3gfs can generate modest surface cold pools from significant convection ✓ Improved ozone and water vapor physics and products ✓ Improved precipitation ETS score (hit/miss/false alarm)

GFSv15

On the watch list

✓ Can be too progressive with synoptic pattern ✓ Precipitation dry bias for moderate rainfall ✓ Hot 2m temperatures in the mid-west ✓ Some degradation in track forecasts at days 6-7 in the Atlantic

Two-pronged unification towards S2S and Regional

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

Q2 FY 2020 GEFSv12 to 35 days

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

Q1 FY 2022 Fully Coupled S2S

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

Q4 FY 2022 FV3-based stand-alone

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

Q4 FY 2023 Regional nests (in ||)

Strategic Vision Fig. 2

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Thank You for Your Time. Questions?