Theme/Design Motivation Perception of Trump administration’s “American Retrenchment” • NATO – “Obsolete” • NAFTA – “Cost U.S. millions of jobs” • Trans Pacific Partnership – “Bilateral deals are far more efficient, profitable and better for OUR workers.” • World Trade Organization – “If they don’t shape up, I would withdraw from the WTO” • United Nations – “"America will always choose independence and cooperation over global governance, control and domination." …We reject the ideology of globalism.” 2018 2017 2018 Argues that the Foreign policy Historical narrative liberal international primer… concerned of struggle & order set-up after about the state of challenge, and how WWII has made the world order, and America prevails world prosperous prospect it is getting because of an and Peaceful. worse. optimistic soul.
Drivers of Change Geo-Economic: Continued trends will have more to do with each country’s internal politics than any external obstacles place in their path Geo-Political: As the leader and principle International Order Institutions: enforcer of the international order, U.S. More than changing, there are a foreign policy and behavior drives the growing number of new institutions, trajectory of international order. and competition for legitimacy. Other factors: Demographic trends, migration patterns, relative military power, technology, populist & Ideological movements 2
US Foreign Policy Track Jacksonian Nationalist Introverted, populist/nationalist Minimalist/pragmatic foreign relations Unilateralist tendency Aggressive if challenged (Dishonored) Transactional Punitive tendency National Honor / Reputation “Total victory” once committed (and “Swagger”) (Honor/credibility) Realist State based power balance Restraint Non- intervention in domestic Act (military) to restore politics (gross human rights balance violation caveat) Nuclear deterrence Prefer “partner first” approaches Liberal Hegemony Universal individual liberty Interventions Democracy Social engineering Capitalism Regime change Tolerance 3
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