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The US shifting its energy policy what are the implications? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The US shifting its energy policy what are the implications? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The US shifting its energy policy what are the implications? Effects in oil and gas markets Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) 19.10.2017 American stock market moved up significantly since the election day 8 th
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What does Trump mean for the global oil market?
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XL Keystone Open up federal land and
- ffshore
Increased export Russia Iran Venezuela North Korea
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Increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula
Source: Google maps
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China net importer of oil and main trigger of global oil demand growth
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20 40 60 80 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 in % 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1Q2005 4Q2005 3Q2006 2Q2007 1Q2008 4Q2008 3Q2009 2Q2010 1Q2011 4Q2011 3Q2012 2Q2013 1Q2014 4Q2014 3Q2015 2Q2016 1Q2017 4Q2017 Mb/d South Korea Japan China
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Trump new sanctions on Venezuela – but many loopholes especially for oil trade
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 jan-84 aug-85 mar-87
- kt-88
maj-90 dec-91 jul-93 feb-95 sep-96 apr-98 nov-99 jun-01 jan-03 aug-04 mar-06
- kt-07
maj-09 dec-10 jul-12 feb-14 sep-15 apr-17 Thousand barrels per day
Venezuela Crude Oil Production
Source: IEA, BP
50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 jan-2004 nov-2004 sep-2005 jul-2006 maj-2007 mar-2008 jan-2009 nov-2009 sep-2010 jul-2011 maj-2012 mar-2013 jan-2014 nov-2014 sep-2015 jul-2016 Thousand barrels per day Thousand barrels per day US Product import, lhs US Crude import. lhs US Export product. rhs
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US still highly dependent on imported crude
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Thousand barrels per day Norway Mexico Canada Venezuela Saudi Arabia US total
Source: EIA
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Trump Boarder Adjustment Tax (BAT) could slow the oil demand growth going forward
35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115
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USD per barrel
Current forecast Forecast with BAT
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US coal production has picked up by 15% in 2017
Source: EIA
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US metallurgical export dependent on steel production in China
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10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 2011-10-01 2012-03-01 2012-08-01 2013-01-01 2013-06-01 2013-11-01 2014-04-01 2014-09-01 2015-02-01 2015-07-01 2015-12-01 2016-05-01 2016-10-01 2017-03-01 2017-08-01 Index
Thermal coal/Steam coal used to fuel power plants Metallurgical (or «met») coal, has a higher carbon content and used primarily to make steel. Source: IEA and Bloomberg
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North America’s share of metals demand limited
10% 10% 7% 10% 8% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
China Europe North America Asia ex China Others
- North American consumption
corresponds to only c. 10%
- f the global demand
- China still dominates global
metal’s market with c. 50% share of the total demand
- Any major shift in metals
demand or prices is highly likely to require Chinese influence
- Almost no matter Trump does
will have only limited, temporary or slow impact on global metals demand and prices
Source: Wood Mackenzie, World Steel Association, World Gold Council, Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
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US natural gas export boosted by the shale revolution – no signs that the US will put the breaks on yet
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US natural gas exports have risen sharply
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Source: EIA
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Norway and Russia will face stronger competition in the European market from a growing US LNG supply
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Other East Africa Russia West Africa Australia North America North America Russia Australia Other West Africa North Africa Indonesia Malaysia Qatar Demand Highly likely and 'likely' pre-FID Operational, under construction or post-FID
Source: BNEF, Poten & Partners Forecast
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Trump a victory for the oil market?
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Source: Political cartoon
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Last hurricane landfall in Texas was Ike in 2008 - there have ben many changes to the us oil industry since then
- Gulf of Mexico accounts
for nearly 20% of US crude production
- 426k b/d production shut
down or 25% of Gulf oil
- utput
- 26% natural gas
production closed in
- 112 platforms and 5 rigs
evacuated
- Shale oil production
makes the US less vulnerable than it was after Katrina, Rita, Ike
- Platforms, rigs, refineries
and pipelines have been reinforced after Katrina
- Delay crude/product
shipments
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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology – growing interest by both democrats and republicans
Source: Dagens Næringsliv and Aker Solutions
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US oil production soon to reach new highs
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1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 nov10 apr12 sep13 feb15 jul16 kb/d
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara
Source: EIA
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US crude export continues to rise after Obama removed the ban
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More flexible US shale oil had changed the price setting dynamics in the market – OPEC’s dominance is fading
Price Quantity Supply t0 Supply t1 Demand
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Source: Tine, SelfPlan, The Economist, Spiri, Automotive.com,
Battery technology Ampere: Electric battery ferry
Disruptive technologies will change our demand for oil radically – with or without Trump’s permission
Car-sharing andautonomous vehicles 3D printing Electris Truck Hyperloop
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China considers to ban sales of petrol cars like Norway, France and the UK
Source: Bloomberg, The Observer
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Costs of producing solar and wind power are falling sharply
Kilde: BNEF, CNBC
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Distruptive technology will increase competition in the transport sector and the demand curve will shift
Price Quantity Supply t0 Supply t1 Demand t0 Demand t1
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So who’s won the first round – fossil or green energy?
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Thank you!
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