The UKs productivity growth challenge Dave Ramsden Deputy Governor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the uk s productivity growth challenge
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The UKs productivity growth challenge Dave Ramsden Deputy Governor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 16, 2023 182 likes •274 views

The UKs productivity growth challenge Dave Ramsden Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Babraham Hall, Cambridge 23 rd February 2018 1. UK GDP growth Annual average growth, per cent 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

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The UK’s productivity growth challenge

Dave Ramsden Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Babraham Hall, Cambridge 23rd February 2018

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  • 1. UK GDP growth

Sources: ONS and Bank of England

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2 4 6 8 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 1-2% Outturns February 2018 Inflation Report projection Annual average growth, per cent

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  • 2. UK business investment cycles

Vertical axis is indexed to 100 at time 0. Horizontal axis shows the quarters prior to, and since, the peak level of business investment. * Dashed blue line shows the MPC’s February 2018 Inflation Report projection Sources: ONS and Bank of England 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

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4 12 20 28 36 44 52 1989Q3 1979Q3 1973Q1 2007Q4*

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  • 3. UK annual productivity growth (GDP per hour worked)

Source: ONS

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1 2 3 4 5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Annual growth, three-year moving average, per cent

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  • 4. Sectoral contributions to productivity growth

Sources: ONS and Bank calculations * Annual averages. Sectoral output per hour is calculated as gross value added divided by hours worked.

Contributions to hourly labour productivity growth*

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SLIDE 6
  • 5. News-based policy uncertainty indices

Source: "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com * Constructed using newspapers from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

250 500 750 1000 1250 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 UK Europe* US Indices, 1997-2010 = 100

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  • 6. UK annual productivity growth (GDP per hour worked)*

*Diamonds show the MPC’s February 2018 Inflation Report projection (three year moving average) Sources: ONS and Bank of England

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1 2 3 4 5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Annual growth, three-year moving average, per cent

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  • 7. The MPC’s February 2018 GDP projection*

* Based on market interest rate expectations, other policy measures as announced Sources: ONS and Bank of England

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  • 8. The Bank and new technologies