22 nd September 2020 The Impact of Covid-19 on Commercial Aviation Supply & Demand Rob Morris – Global Head of Consultancy 1 cirium.com
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The impact so far Fleet implications and recovery scenarios Agenda Supply side considerations 6 cirium.com
The impact so far 7 cirium.com
The impact on global traffic is like nothing ever experienced before – a one in one hundred year event? The June scenario implies that 60% 2021 global traffic volume will be around the same as 2014 40% 20% Year-on-Year Change 0% -20% -40% -60% 9 years, 7.2% CAGR 6 years, 6.9% CAGR 10 years, 6.6% CAGR -80% Traffic (RPK) Capacity (ASK) Source: Ascend by Cirium Analysis of IATA Data, IATA 2020 / 2021 forecasts updated June 2020 cirium.com 8
IATA original predictions expected slower growth in 2020, but then the Black Swan landed and reliable projections became impossible 10% 0% 2020 Predicted / Achieved Growth -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Africa Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America North America Europe Global Predicted Traffic Growth Predicted Capacity Growth Year to Date Traffic Year to Date Capacity Source: IATA (forecast is Dec-19, amended to -48% in Apr-20), 2020 to June cirium.com 9
2020 global capacity projected to be down 50% cumulatively over 2019 to end September and October 10% IATA’s December 2019 forecast for 0% Cumulative capacity change year-on-year 2020 global capacity growth was +4.7%, revised in June 2020 to -40.4% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 07-Oct 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct Source: Cirium Schedules, data filed 20 th September 2020, easyJet May 2020 manually adjusted cirium.com 10
Global capacity down around 60%-80% April-August on a daily basis over 2019, recovering through September to around -58% by end month, October indicating strong recovery but likely to worsen due to short-term adjustments 10% End September outlook deteriorated from - 0% 39% six weeks ago to -59% this week, Daily capacity change year-on-year note end October is impacted by airport -10% slot issues where waiver is not agreed for winter season yet -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 07-Oct 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct Source: Cirium Schedules, data filed 20 th September 2020, easyJet May 2020 manually adjusted cirium.com 11
China domestic schedule recovers to positive year-on-year growth in September, US domestic schedule stable for October, other regions showing recovery but impacted by slot issues so will decline once waivers are restored 20% Daily capacity change year-on-year (rolling 7-day 0% -20% average) -40% US Domestic -60% Trans-Atlantic Intra-Europe -80% Intra-Asia China Domestic -100% 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 07-Oct 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct Source: Cirium Schedules, data filed 20 th September 2020, easyJet May 2020 manually adjusted cirium.com 12
Single-aisle aircraft tracked broadly stable on a weekly basis, twin-aisle edging up, respectively at 68% and 46% of fleet tracked at start of year 16,000 Single-Aisle Twin-Aisle 14,000 9,599 single-aisle aircraft Global aircraft tracked daily 12,000 tracked on 18 th September vs 14,083 on 3 rd January 10,000 8,000 6,000 1,861 twin-aisle aircraft 4,000 tracked on 18 th September vs 4,070 on 3 rd January 2,000 0 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep Source: Cirium utilisation data, commercial passenger jets, utilisation data for aircraft tracked on a daily basis only cirium.com 13
Utilisation still down significantly over start of year, single-aisle declining marginally again and now around 7.0 hours per day globally, twin-aisle stable at just under 10 hours globally 14 Single-Aisle 13 Twin-Aisle 12 Fleet average daily flight hours 11 Twin-aisle down on average 26% since start of year 10 9 8 7 6 Single-aisle down on average 25% since start of year 5 4 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep Source: Cirium utilisation data, commercial passenger jets, utilisation data for aircraft tracked on a daily basis only cirium.com 14
Recovery in China to exceed 85% of daily flight hours, but other regions lagging significantly 1.4 2020 Daily Flight Hours (rolling seven-day average, 1.2 1.0 indexed to 1 st January) 0.8 0.6 USA 0.4 Europe China 0.2 Asia ex China 0.0 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 01-Apr 08-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 06-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 03-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep Source: Cirium utilisation data, commercial passenger jets, utilisation data for aircraft tracked on a daily basis only cirium.com 15
Fleet implications and recovery scenarios 16 cirium.com
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