[PPT] - The Health and Related Economic The Health and Related Economic PowerPoint Presentation

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The Health and Related Economic The Health and Related Economic Benefits of Attaining Healthful Air in Benefits of Attaining Healthful Air in the San Joaquin Valley the San Joaquin Valley

Jane Vise Hall and Victor Brajer Jane Vise Hall and Victor Brajer The Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies The Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies California State University, Fullerton California State University, Fullerton Frederick W. Lurmann Frederick W. Lurmann Sonoma Technology, Inc. Sonoma Technology, Inc. 2006 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Symposium 2006 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Symposium December 6, Bakersfield, California December 6, Bakersfield, California

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SJV Air Quality Status SJV Air Quality Status

Ozone

Ozone

Ozone NAAQS

Ozone NAAQS Exceedances Exceedances are frequent are frequent

SJV is classified as a “Serious”

SJV is classified as a “Serious” Nonattainment Nonattainment Area for 8 Area for 8-

hr NAAQS

hr NAAQS

New Air Quality Management Plan, due in

New Air Quality Management Plan, due in 2007, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 2007, will try to achieve compliance by 2013

Major Issue

Major Issue – – No downward trend in recent No downward trend in recent years years

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3 Source: SJVUAPCD

Days Above the Federal 8 Days Above the Federal 8-

hr Ozone

hr Ozone Standard in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Standard in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

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SJV Air Quality Status SJV Air Quality Status

PM

PM

Daily and Annual PM2.5 NAAQS are

Daily and Annual PM2.5 NAAQS are exceeded in the SJV exceeded in the SJV

Area is classified as “Serious”

Area is classified as “Serious” Nonattainment Nonattainment for PM2.5 for PM2.5

New Air Quality Management Plan, due in

New Air Quality Management Plan, due in 2008, will try to achieve compliance by 2013 2008, will try to achieve compliance by 2013

Compliance with the PM2.5 NAAQS will be

Compliance with the PM2.5 NAAQS will be more difficult than with the PM10 standards more difficult than with the PM10 standards

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Annual Average PM2.5 in SJV Annual Average PM2.5 in SJV

5 10 15 20 25

Stockton Modesto Merced Clovis Fresno - 1st St. Fresno - Hamilton Visalia Corcoran Bakersfield - Golden St. Bakersfield - Calif. Ave Bakersfield - Planz

Location

Concentration (ug/m3) . 2002 2003 2004 NAAQS

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98 98th

th Percentile 24

Percentile 24-

hour average

hour average PM2.5 Concentrations PM2.5 Concentrations

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Stockton Modesto Merced Clovis Fresno - 1st St. Fresno - Hamilton Visalia Corcoran Bakersfield - Golden St. Bakersfield - Calif. Ave Bakersfield - Planz

Location

Concentration (ug/m3) 2002 2003 2004 NAAQS

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Exposure Approach Exposure Approach

Baseline Air Quality Baseline Air Quality

2002

2002-

2004 Measurement Data in and

2004 Measurement Data in and Around SJV Air Basin Around SJV Air Basin

Create Spatial Maps of Ambient Air

Create Spatial Maps of Ambient Air Quality Data Quality Data

Hourly Ozone Maps

Hourly Ozone Maps

Daily and annual PM2.5 Maps

Daily and annual PM2.5 Maps

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Exposure Approach Exposure Approach

Future Air Quality Future Air Quality

Determine Design Values (3 yr averages)

Determine Design Values (3 yr averages)

Project future year concentrations that

Project future year concentrations that comply with standards using Rollback comply with standards using Rollback Population Population

2000 census data

2000 census data gridded gridded and adjusted and adjusted to reflect the 2004 population to reflect the 2004 population

Grid, county, age and race/ethnicity

Grid, county, age and race/ethnicity breakdown breakdown

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NAAQS Reduction Requirements NAAQS Reduction Requirements

65.5 65.5 73.2 73.2 6 6 PM PM2.5

2.5 24

24-

hr

hr – –Previous Previous 35.5 35.5 73.2 73.2 6 6 PM PM2.5

2.5 24

24-

hr (

hr (µ µg/m g/m3

3)

) 15.5 15.5 20.6 20.6 6 6 PM PM2.5

2.5 Annual (

Annual (µ µg/m g/m3

3)

) 85 85 116.7 116.7 40 40 Ozone 8 Ozone 8-

hr (ppb)

hr (ppb)

Future Future Value Value Design Design Value Value Background Background

NAAQS NAAQS

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Gridded Gridded Population Population

Grid System SJV Air Basin 2000 Population Density

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Ambient Air Quality Monitor Locations Ambient Air Quality Monitor Locations

PM2.5 Ozone

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Spatially Mapped Annual Average PM2.5 Spatially Mapped Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations for 2002 Concentrations for 2002

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Exposure Approach Exposure Approach

Regional Human Exposure (REHEX) Model Regional Human Exposure (REHEX) Model

Computes frequencies of population exposures on a

Computes frequencies of population exposures on a spatial grid spatial grid

These REHEX simulation are for ambient exposures.

These REHEX simulation are for ambient exposures. They do not account for the modifying effects of They do not account for the modifying effects of buildings and vehicles, indoor sources, or human buildings and vehicles, indoor sources, or human time time-

activity patterns on personal exposures.

activity patterns on personal exposures.

Results computed for averaging times associated

Results computed for averaging times associated with exposure with exposure-

response functions

response functions

– – 1 1-

hr daily maximum

hr daily maximum – – 5 5-

hr daily maximum

hr daily maximum – – 8 8-

hr daily maximum

hr daily maximum – – 10 AM 10 AM – – 6 PM 6 PM – – 24 24-

hr average

hr average – – Annual average Annual average

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Persons Persons-

days per Year of Exposure to 8

days per Year of Exposure to 8-

hr Ozone

hr Ozone Above Various Concentration Thresholds Above Various Concentration Thresholds

10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 8-hr Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration Threshold (ppb) 2002 - 2004 Baseline Future 8-hr NAAQS Attainment

8-hr Ozone NAAQS

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Persons Persons-

days per Year of Exposure to 24

days per Year of Exposure to 24-

hr PM2.5

hr PM2.5 Above Various Concentration Thresholds Above Various Concentration Thresholds

10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 24-hr Average PM2.5 Concentration Threshold (ug/m3) Person-days per year above threshold . 2002 - 2004 Baseline Future 24-hr NAAQS Attainment

24-hr PM2.5 NAAQS

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Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above Various Concentration Thresholds Various Concentration Thresholds

10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration Threshold (ug/m3)

2002 - 2004 Baseline Future Annual NAAQS Attainment

Annual PM2.5 NAAQS

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Person Person-

days per Year of Population Exposure to 8

days per Year of Population Exposure to 8-

hour

hour Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations above 85 ppb Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations above 85 ppb

2002 – 2004 Baseline Future NAAQS Attainment

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Person Person-

days per Year of Population Exposure to

days per Year of Population Exposure to 24 24-

hour PM2.5 concentrations above 35

hour PM2.5 concentrations above 35 µg/m3 µg/m3

2002 – 2004 Baseline Future NAAQS Attainment

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Persons Exposed To Annual Average PM2.5 Persons Exposed To Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations Above 15 µg/m3 Concentrations Above 15 µg/m3

Future NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline

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Person Person-

days of Exposure to 8

days of Exposure to 8-

hr Ozone

hr Ozone above 85 ppb (in millions per year) above 85 ppb (in millions per year)

10.8 Tulare County 0.04 3.4 Madera County 4.6 Merced County 2.6 Kings County 2.1 Stanislaus County 0.3 San Joaquin County 0.04 19.7 Kern County 0.21 25.5 Fresno County 0.29 69 SJV Air Basin With NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline Region

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Person Person-

days of Exposure to 24

days of Exposure to 24-

hr PM2.5

hr PM2.5 above 35 µg/m3 above 35 µg/m3 (in millions per year) (in millions per year)

0.10 14.8 Tulare County 0.02 5.9 Madera County 6.6 Merced County 0.03 5.6 Kings County 0.83 15.3 Stanislaus County 0.01 10.7 San Joaquin County 1.37 31.4 Kern County 1.23 36.3 Fresno County 3.59 126.6 SJV Air Basin With NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline Region

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Persons Exposed to Annual Average Persons Exposed to Annual Average PM2.5 above 15 µg/m3 (in thousands) PM2.5 above 15 µg/m3 (in thousands)

102 364 Tulare County 135 Madera County 148 Merced County 41 134 Kings County 155 Stanislaus County 180 San Joaquin County 194 584 Kern County 183 785 Fresno County 521 2,486 SJV Air Basin With NAAQS Attainment 2002 – 2004 Baseline Region

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Days per year Above Concentration Days per year Above Concentration in 2002 in 2002-

2004 by Racial/Ethnic Group

2004 by Racial/Ethnic Group

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 8-hr O3 > 85 ppb 24-hr PM2.5 > 35 ug/m3 Days per Year Above Concentration All White Black Hispanic Other

Ozone PM2.5

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Days per year Above Concentration Days per year Above Concentration in 2002 in 2002-

2004 by Age Group

2004 by Age Group

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 8-hr O3 > 85 ppb 24-hr PM2.5 > 35 ug/m3 Days per Year Above Concentration

All Ages Children <1 yrs Children 1 yr Children 2-4 Yrs Children 5-17 Yrs Children 18-21 Yrs Adults 22-29 Yrs Adults 30-64 Yrs Adults >64 Yrs

Ozone PM2.5

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Days per year Above Concentration Days per year Above Concentration in 2002 in 2002-

2004 by County

2004 by County

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 8-hr O3 > 85 ppb 24-hr PM2.5 > 35 ug/m3 Days per Year Above Concentration

SJV Air Basin San Joaquin County Stanislaus County Merced County Madera County Kings County Tulare County Fresno County Kern County

Ozone PM2.5