The Growth-Employment-Poverty Nexus in Latin America in the 2000s - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Growth-Employment-Poverty Nexus in Latin America in the 2000s Guillermo Cruces Gary S. Fields CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP, CONICET and IZA Cornell University, IZA and WIDER David Jaume Mariana Viollaz Cornell University and CEDLAS-FCE- CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP UNLP

Motivation • Interest in the links between growth, employment, and poverty. • Main questions: o Has economic growth resulted in economic development via improved labor market conditions in the 2000s? o Have these improvements halted or been reversed since the Great Recession of 2008? o How do the rate and character of economic growth, changes in the various employment and earnings indicators, and changes in poverty and inequality indicators relate to each other?

Analytical Framework (Fields, 2016) Transmission Policy Action Channel Outcome Variable Employment C A A Economic growth Poverty and other policy and other outcome Social actions variables B D programs

In this research Transmission Policy Action Channel Outcome Variable Employment C A A Economic growth Poverty and other policy and other outcome Social actions B variables programs D

Our outputs • 17 WIDER working papers : o 16 country papers o 1 cross-country paper • A book: “Growth, employment and Poverty in Latin America” published by Oxford University Press in July 2017.

Data sources • Microeconomic data from SEDLAC (CEDLAS and World Bank) for 16 countries, from 2000 to 2012/2013: o More than 150 household surveys, 5 million households and 18 million people. o Comparable time series for a wide range of labor market, poverty and income inequality indicators. • Aggregate macroeconomic indicators from WDI (World Bank) and data on social expenditure from ECLAC (United Nations).

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Labor market indicators and Evaluation criteria Change from Welfare improving Labor market indicators (Y ik ) initial to final year change Employment and earnings indicators Unemployment rate ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings occupations ∆Y ik Increase Shr of paid employees ∆Y ik Increase Shr of self-employment ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of unpaid workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of low-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-earnings sectors ∆Y ik Increase Shr of low-educated workers ∆Y ik Reduction Shr of high-educated workers ∆Y ik Increase Shr of workers registered with SS ∆Y ik Increase Real monthly labor earnings ∆%Y ik Increase Poverty and inequality indicators 2.5 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction 4 USD-a-day poverty rate ∆Y ik Reduction Gini hpci ∆%Y ik Reduction Gini labor earnings ∆%Y ik Reduction + Index of improving changes (Z i ) (1/K)∑Y ik Increase

Changing Labor Market Indicators and the Rate of Economic Growth in Latin America during the 2000s

Changing labor market indicators and economic growth • Q: From beginning to end, how GDP per capita and LMI changed?

Unemployment and GDP in Latin America during the 2000s 130 45 Unemployment 119 120 40 117 GDPpc GDPpc GDPpc 110 35 100 30 90 88 25 80 77 70 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Labor earning and GDP in Latin America during the 2000s 130 45 119 120 40 GDPpc GDPpc GDPpc 110 Mean Labor earnings 109 35 101 100 30 90 88 25 80 70 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012