The Federal Home Loan Bank CFA Society Dayton January 8, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Federal Home Loan Bank

CFA Society Dayton January 8, 2019

Darren Kuntz Michael Spencer

2

Darren Kuntz has worked in the banking industry since

• 1995. His primary roles prior to joining the Federal Home

Loan Bank of Cincinnati focused on interest rate risk and fixed income portfolio management. Darren joined the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati in 2003 as an Assistant Portfolio Manager in the Treasury department. In 2018, he was promoted to First Vice President, Assistant Treasurer and is responsible for balance sheet

• management. Darren received his Bachelor of Science in

Finance from Northern Kentucky University and a Master

• f Business Administration from the University of

Cincinnati. Michael Spencer has worked in the banking industry since

• 2009. His primary roles, prior to joining the Federal Home

Loan Bank, focused on the fixed income markets and interest rate risk. Michael joined the Federal Home Loan Bank in 2015 as a Financial Analyst in the Marketing department developing advanced level financial and market for FHLB Members. In 2016, he was promoted to Insurance and Sales Officer. In his current role, Michael is the primary relationship manager for the FHLB Insurance Company members assisting with funding strategies and balance sheet analytics. Michael received his Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from the University of Notre Dame.

Darren Kuntz Michael Spencer

FHLB Cincinnati

Market Update

FOMC Projected Rate Increases

• FOMC raised the Fed Funds Target Range 3 times in 2017, followed by 4 increases in

2018.

• FOMC has only increased the Interest paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) by 20 basis

points each of the past two interest rate increases – De-couples the top end of the Fed Funds Target Range from IOER – Effective Fed Funds Rate and IOER are converging – Effective Fed Funds Rate and IOER remain near the top of the Target Range.

4

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Federal Funds

Bottom of Taget Effective Rate IOER Top of Target 2.10% 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.50% 2.60% 2.70% 2.80% 2.90% January-19 April-19 July-19 October-19

Fed Funds Futures Implied Rates

9/28/2018 12/31/2018

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

• Federal Reserve continues to reduce the size of its balance sheet by allowing

Treasuries and Agency MBS to mature without reinvestment.

• Over $400 Billion has matured since the beginning of 2016.
• Combined with rate increases, FOMC is reducing accommodative monetary policy.

5

$3,800 $3,900 $4,000 $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 $4,500 $4,600 1/4/2016 4/4/2016 7/4/2016 10/4/2016 1/4/2017 4/4/2017 7/4/2017 10/4/2017 1/4/2018 4/4/2018 7/4/2018 10/4/2018

Billions

Federal Reserve Total Assets

Inflation In Line?

• Inflation remains near FOMC’s target of 2.0%.
• 5 year real yields moved into negative territory in 2010, remaining there for much of

the next 5 years.

• The 5 year real yield has been positive for all of 2018.

6

• 3.00
• 2.00
• 1.00

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

5 Year Real Yields

5Y T-note - 5Y TIP Implied Inflation

Inverted Yield Curve

• Treasury Curve has recently inverted, a typical sign of an upcoming recession.
• 5 year Treasury yield fell below 3 year Treasury yield in early December. It has since

returned to higher level.

• Spread between 10 year Treasuries and 2 year Treasuries has narrowed from over 50

basis points, to less than 20 basis points in the last 12 months.

7

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 2Y UST 3Y UST 5Y UST 7Y UST 10Y UST

Treasury Yield Curve

12/31/2018 12/29/2017 12/30/2016 (1.00) (0.50)

• 0.50

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Percentage Points

Yield Curve Steepness

5Y UST - 2Y UST 10Y UST - 2Y UST 10Y UST - 3mL

Credit Stress Metrics

• Investment grade spreads measure the difference between the yield on US Treasury bonds

and debt of lesser quality such as corporate bonds. The IG CDS Index measures the cost of the credit default swaps on investment grade entities.

• Investment grade spreads have widened materially from the start of the year driven by trade

concerns, higher corporate leverage, a potential slowdown in global growth, and tightening

• f monetary policy by the Federal Reserve
• Investment grade spreads typically track stock market performance and are often viewed as a

leading economic indicator.

8

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1/4/2018 2/4/2018 3/4/2018 4/4/2018 5/4/2018 6/4/2018 7/4/2018 8/4/2018 9/4/2018 10/4/2018 11/4/2018 12/4/2018

Investment Grade CDS Index

Bank Asset Sensitivity

Net Interest Spread Analysis

• Fifth District Bank and Thrift members remain asset sensitive, to a small degree.

– Yield on earning assets has increased 36 basis points since the beginning of the change in monetary policy. – The cost of funds has risen 23 basis points over the same time period. – Result is Net Interest Spread increase of 13 basis points over the last 11 quarters.

• Increase in spread of 13 basis points is significantly less than the over 200 basis points of short term rate increases pursued by

the FOMC.

• Short term liabilities (deposits) are repricing in line with long term assets (loans) muting the increase in Net Interest Spread

– Flattening yield curve is detrimental to net interest spread.

10

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

All Fifth District Banks and Thrifts

Yield on Earning Assets Cost of Funds Net Interest Spread Fed Funds Target Range (Top)

Banks, Thrifts, S&L Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

• Yld. on Earn. Assets

4.16% 4.17% 4.17% 4.14% 4.14% 4.21% 4.28% 4.30% 4.31% 4.42% 4.52% Cost of Funds 0.51% 0.51% 0.52% 0.51% 0.50% 0.52% 0.55% 0.57% 0.59% 0.65% 0.74% Net Int. Spread 3.65% 3.66% 3.65% 3.63% 3.63% 3.69% 3.73% 3.73% 3.72% 3.77% 3.78%

Net Interest Spread Drivers

• Most asset yields are little changed over the last 11 quarters.

– Yield on loans has risen 17 basis points during this time period, compared to Fed Funds increases of 200 basis points. – Yield on Securities has fallen 14 basis points since the FOMC began increasing the Fed Funds Target Range, and securities balances as a percentage of total assets has declined. – The increase in Net Interest Spread is being driven entirely by increased loan yields and volumes.

• The cost of interest bearing deposits has increased 27 basis points over the trailing 11 quarters.
• Deposit betas continue to lag the FOMC, but have increased rapidly in 2018, at times outpacing loan betas.

11

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

All Fifth District Banks and Thrifts

Yield on Loans Cost of Int. Bear. Dep. Yield on Securities Fed Funds Target Rate (Top)

LIBOR Reform

What is LIBOR?

• LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)

started In 1986 as a standardized rate for many types of financial instruments – Currently utilized for derivatives, business loans, securitizations, and debt issuance – Intended to represent the rate at which banks can borrow money from each other (unsecured interbank funding)

• Maturities from overnight to one year

submitted by panel banks (approx. 20 of the largest banks in the world)

• FHLB Cincinnati issues Advances,

purchases investments, executes derivatives, and issues debt indexed to LIBOR

• LIBOR is also the benchmark curve for

valuing the balance sheet

• Unregulated until September 2012

– Now regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the U.K. – Administered by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

• Approximately $200 trillion of global

financial contracts are indexed to US Dollar LIBOR with $350 trillion in total contracts tied to LIBOR

13

Why is LIBOR being reformed?

• LIBOR is becoming less relevant and trusted

– Many contributing banks were found to have been manipulating LIBOR – Post crisis financial reform has decreased the amount of unsecured interbank funding (on which LIBOR is based)

• Current overnight Fed fund market trading volume of $50 to $60 billion per day (down from $125 to $150 billion

pre-crisis)

• Banks are required to fund themselves with a larger portion of long-term debt

– There is a material subjective component to daily LIBOR submissions

• Alternatives have been developed that are gaining momentum

14

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 3/6/2016 6/6/2016 9/6/2016 12/6/2016 3/6/2017 6/6/2017 9/6/2017 12/6/2017 3/6/2018 6/6/2018 9/6/2018 12/6/2018

Daily Fed Funds Volume

When is LIBOR being reform?

• FCA (LIBOR regulator in U.K.)

announced in July 2018 the potential to declare LIBOR unfit for use after 2021 – July 2017 FCA announced submitting panel banks will not be required to quote LIBOR past 2021 – Benchmark regulation in the E.U. requires a reference rate to be representative of the market

• The capital markets will strongly

influence the timing as robust alternative reference rate markets evolve (swaps, futures, debt etc.)

15

2008/2009 – LIBOR manipulation reported to Fed and financial media 2012/2013 – LIBOR regulator FCA is formed The Wheatley Review calls for LIBOR reform 2014 – ICE becomes LIBOR administrator Financial Stability Board issues report on reforming interest rate benchmarks 2017 – FCA states that panel banks are not required to submit LIBOR post 2021 2018 – Prudential Regulators issue roadmap to alternative reference rate transition Fed publishes SOFR SOFR indexed debt issued

LIBOR Reform Timeline

16

Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR)

• SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)

– Rate has strong support from the Prudential Regulators through the Alternative Reference Rate Committee (ARRC) of the Fed – Rate is set daily based on overnight Treasury repurchase agreement rates (secured borrowings for financial institutions) – transparent and transaction based

• Financial institutions include securities dealers, banks, REITS, insurance companies, and GSEs
• Overnight Treasury repurchase agreement trading volume $800 to $900 billion
• Results are “trimmed” to eliminate duplicates and “special” trades

17

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 1/4/2016 2/4/2016 3/4/2016 4/4/2016 5/4/2016 6/4/2016 7/4/2016 8/4/2016 9/4/2016 10/4/2016 11/4/2016 12/4/2016 1/4/2017 2/4/2017 3/4/2017 4/4/2017 5/4/2017 6/4/2017 7/4/2017 8/4/2017 9/4/2017 10/4/2017 11/4/2017 12/4/2017 1/4/2018 2/4/2018 3/4/2018 4/4/2018 5/4/2018 6/4/2018 7/4/2018 8/4/2018 9/4/2018 10/4/2018 11/4/2018 12/4/2018

3 Month LIBOR Vs 3M Avg SOFR

3M LIBOR 3M Avg SOFR Spread (RHS)

SOFR Debt Issuance

18

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 2018

Millions

2018 SOFR Debt Issuance

Fannie Mae Federal Home Loan Banks Freddie Mac Other Issuers

What is FHLB Cincinnati watching?

• Financial market liquidity for

LIBOR, OIS, and SOFR indices

• Evolution of financial contract

language – fallback language, coupon lockout, average coupon rate

• Market consensus on how to treat

legacy investments and derivatives

– When to trigger LIBOR to SOFR – How to adjust legacy LIBOR rates 19

Thank You