Fordham University – New York – 22 February 2010 Understanding Copenhagen: U.S and E.U. Negotiation Positions and the Landscape for Future Negotiations The Copenhagen Accord on Climate Change: A legal analysis Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Framework Background The Copenhagen Accord • Some legal issues • The EU’s Position Next steps and conclusions Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
United Nations Convention on Climate Change (1992, in force 1994, 194 countries): Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC (1997, in force 2005, USA not Party) • sets legally binding targets for the reduction of GHG emissions (-5.2%) by industrialised countries (Annex I) within commitment periods E.g. EU: -8% by 2008-2012 as compared to 1990 (base year) • Introduction of three flexible mechanisms (international emission trading, CDM, JI) • Parties need to implement national climate change policies and measures Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Article 3.9 Kyoto Protocol « consideration of commitments for subsequent periods at least seven years before end first commitment period » 2005 Ad Hoc Working Group on further commitments by Annex I Parties (AWG KP): • Aggregate and individual emission reduction targets • ‘other issues’? (flexibility mechanisms, LULUCF, potential consequences) Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
2007: Bali Action Plan (after Convention Dialogue) Focus on: 1. Mitigation (+ shared vision/long term global goal) 2. Adaptation 3. Finance 4. Technology 5. Capacity Building Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action (AWGLCA): conclude in 2009 Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Negotiated by around 30 countries during the last 2 days, at heads of state level From all UN regional groups, LDCs and the alliance of small island states, covering more than 80 % of the global CO2 emissions Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Covering all UN regional groups, LDCs and the alliance of small island states: Algeria Japan Australia Republic of Korea Bangladesh Lesotho Brazil Maldives Mexico China Norway Colombia Russian Federation Ethiopia Saudi Arabia Sweden South Africa European Commission Spain Germany Sudan France UK Grenada US India Indonesia Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Recognition of 2 C objective Recogniton of need for peaking A review to be completed by 2015, with a reference to exploring pathways to remain below 1.5 Celsius global temperature increase •No targets that can deliver that at present •No peaking year [E.U.: before 2020] •No global mid-term or long term reduction targets [E.U. -50% by 2050] Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Mitigation: Economy-wide emission reduction targets for developed countries [E.U.: -20-30%* to 1990] o USA on board? Mitigation action by developing countries o de facto differentiation between developing countries • to be enlisted by February 1, 2010? • Aggregate number/ overall level of ambition? • No explicit common accounting rules for developed countries, only common reporting (pledge-and-review approach). Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Transparancy + accounting is rigorous, robust and transparent -Meaning that...? Ex ante? + Measurement, reporting, verification (MRV) for developed countries based on existing guidelines Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Transparancy ++ MRV for developing countries: Low-emission development strategy National Communication every 2 years, including inventories, with an international follow up process Unsupported actions MRV-ed domestically but results will be included in National Communications; Supported actions MRV-ed internationally Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Finance: ++ significant commitment by developed countries to provide new and additional financial resources + 30 bn $ fast-start for 2010-2012 [E.U.:7.2bn ] + 100 bn $ by 2020 Variety of sources, both public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance Prioritized for vulnerable developing countries, e.g. The LDCs, small island developing states and Africa. ++ institutional mechanisms + Copenhagen Green Climate Fund + High Level Panel Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
+ Register to record supported actions and the support itself, be it technology, finance and capacity building ++/- Establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support, but also response measures +/- Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer (not specified) +/- Mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and other uses (REDD) (not specified); Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
- Very weak on market mechanism and nothing explicit on sectoral trading mechanisms -> linking of cap-and-trade systems? - No reference to international aviation and maritime transport -> IMO and ICAO? - No reference to F-gases -> Montreal Protocol? + No references to trade, IPR or historic responsibility Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
The Copenhagen Accord does not meet the criteria of an international agreement as defined by the Vienna Convention, CA is not (internationally) legally binding no explicit language referring to a process to deliver this : continuation of Kyoto Protocol?? COP15 did “ take note” of the Copenhagen Accord, it didn’t adopt it (consensual process, and Venezuela, Columbia, Cuba and Tuvalu blocked) - Possible solution for the way forward is Article 7(2)(c) of the Convention, which allows the COP to facilitate, at the request of two or more Parties, the coordination of measures adopted by them Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Expression of association and submission of targets and/or actions to be seen (by 31 January 2010) Who may submit? Formalities? EU calls for other countries to associate and plegdes “20-30%” target “immediately operational?” supplemented with COP implementing decisions Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Copenhagen Accord is a step forward compared to stalemate in AWG LCA and AWG KP. Deserves strong support, stepping stone to a more ambitious future. Those negotiating need to be ready to fill in targets/actions before by February 1, 2010 Need to consider follow up process under the UNFCCC, AWG LCA and KP track? How to ensure the outcome becomes legally binding? Other processes that will be important: Major Economies Forum, US legislative debate EU internal: Decarbonisation vision 2050 Prof. Barbara Pozzo Università degli Studi dell’Insubria Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
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