The Complexity of Achieving Stability in Sirte, Libya COL Nate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the complexity of achieving stability in sirte
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The Complexity of Achieving Stability in Sirte, Libya COL Nate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 16, 2022 269 likes •402 views

The Complexity of Achieving Stability in Sirte, Libya COL Nate Prussian Advisor: Dr. Natalia Mirovitskaya 23 March 2018 Agenda Why this matters Evolution of research Methodology Context of the problem The Problem

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COL Nate Prussian Advisor: Dr. Natalia Mirovitskaya 23 March 2018

The Complexity of Achieving Stability in Sirte, Libya

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Agenda

  • Why this matters
  • Evolution of research
  • Methodology
  • Context of the problem
  • The Problem
  • Stakeholders Analysis
  • Main causes
  • Policy Recommendations

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Evolution of Research

This paper conducts a stakeholder’s analysis of Libya from the perspective

  • f USAFRICOM. The paper then recommends preliminary steps toward

stability and order in Sirte, based on the understanding gained through the use of a stakeholder’s analysis.

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Methodology

  • Secondary Sources: Literature review
  • Recent history of Libya – Since Qaddafi
  • International Humanitarian Law
  • Underpinnings of stabilization
  • Phases and programs
  • Primary Sources: Interviews
  • 22 current and recently deployed USSOCOM personnel

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Context of the Problem

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Context of the Problem

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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The Problem

Libya can’t extricate itself from its national crisis. Too many factors are pulling it apart, and there is no entity unifying the country nor efforts toward stability. Without a unified approach leading to stability there is a predictable outcome, Libya will slip further into chaos and city-state warfare.

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Stakeholders Analysis

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

  • 54 Stakeholders
  • 21 Represented
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Main Causes

  • People of Sirte ostracized
  • Lack of internal and external political unification
  • Ineffective humanitarian programs
  • Perceived indifference toward the situation
  • Economic predation

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Policy Recommendations

  • Gain access to Sirte
  • Bolster ERW programs
  • Coordinated NATO security training
  • Establish HA coordination mechanism

supporting the GNA

  • CMOC established in Tripoli
  • Direction, monitoring, coordination
  • US legitimacy to the GNA
  • Coalition

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu

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Policy Recommendations

  • Tribal engagement
  • Start with Qaddafah and Warfallah
  • Commit to a long-term and increasingly senior engagement
  • Promote the idea the GNA must be inclusive to these tribes
  • Key to mitigating the spawn of jihadism

COL Nate Prussian Army War College Fellow – Duke University Nathan.Prussian@duke.edu