The Changing Poli-cal Economi mies of Migrant Smu muggling - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Changing Poli-cal Economi mies of Migrant Smu muggling Networks in Africa: New Challenges and Ne New Ri Risks

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime www.globalinitiative.net

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Introduction

• 1. Research:
• Interviews in West Africa, East Africa, Horn
• f Africa, East Africa, Yemen, Turkey, and

Europe, 2012-2016 Extensive existing field research 2012-16

• 2. Analysis:
• Market Dynamics & Actors
• 3. Policy Implications:
• Sketching an Integrated Response

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

What is a Smu muggler?

Bridging cultures, languages and institutional divides Specialised knowledge and capital A range of services are

• fgered in “hub” towns

Crossing political or geographic borders Within safe regions

• A smuggler helps a migrant cross

boundaries:

• Geographic
• Poli7cal
• Physical
• Cultural
• Smugglers don’t create their markets,

but they do shape and expand them.

• Many types of actors are involved in

a smuggling market

These boundaries can change and can be changed

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Two typologies of mi migrant smu muggling

• 1. Pay as you go
• 2. Full-package

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

3 Smuggling Systems

Hor Horn of Africa System n of Africa System A: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia B: Dadaab, Kenya C: Khartoum, Sudan D: Ethiopia / Sudan border Sahel System Sahel System E: Agadez, Niger F: Sebha, Libya

Sudan/Eritrea Border Eastern Sudan

Med Coastal System Med Coastal System G: Zuwara / Tripoli, Libya H: Alexandria, Egypt

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

System: Horn of Africa

Libya Egypt DRC

Ke Key Actors Pric Price e Mark Market C t Conso nsolida-o lida-on n Vi Viol

• len

ence ce

Government prompted and enabled, through corrup-on and abuse of power. Fragmented market, many players, very few dis-nct players emerge. Eritreans and Sudanese seem dominant in the

• rganised networks.

Widespread involvement of the community. Par-cularly focused around refugee camps. Very low. A few big players running networks, but a massive industry. Prices are high to leave the most repressive source states: Eritrea, Sudan. Travelling around the region is rela-vely cheap. Significant regional dispari-es depending on specific borders and the current environment. Trips across the Sahel towards Europe cost several thousand dollars, more once extor-on costs have also been factored in. Protec-on / systems of extor-on developing. Within the region, violence is rela-vely low, though the prac-ces of forced or exploita-ve labour and sexual are commonplace. Instances of organ trafficking and extreme abuse are rumoured and have occurred historically. Violence against migrants from the region (e.g. ISIS) have caused widespread concern.

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

System: Sahel

Libya Egypt DRC

Ke Key Actors Pric Price e Mark Market C t Conso nsolida-o lida-on n Vi Viol

• len

ence ce

Toubou Toureg Local Libyan mili-a groups Increasingly controlled by the Toubou, displacing Toureg off key routes, limited space for new actors given terrain. Prices have fallen no-ceably, and it is only quan-ty that is sustaining the levels of profits in the market. The migrant trade is taxed by the panoply of local control zones. Protec-on systems are far more developed in Libya than elsewhere. Use of violence and exploita-on such as forced labour is commonplace but not extreme. The journey itself is inherently dangerous and has a high mortality rate that smugglers do liYle to offset.

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

System: Mediterranean Coast

Libya Egypt DRC

Ke Key Actors Pric Price e Mark Market C t Conso nsolida-o lida-on n Vi Viol

• len

ence ce

Libyan mili-a groups Eritrean networks Vast system of brokers Egypt: facilitated by state

• fficials, local corrup-on.

Lead by Arabs, Egyp-ans / Pales-nians / Syrians. Libya: as complicated as Libya’s poli-cs, and plays into financing poli-cally linked and neutral mili-a groups. Average 2000 depar-ng a day from various points. Rising organisa-on of the Eritrean networks in Libya. Connec-on between Libyan and Egyp-an networks. Prices from Libya are falling to very low levels to make the crossing, but extor-on driving the price up for migrants. Egypt, includes higher end services, as well as pay as you go. Corrup-on costs a higher percentage than elsewhere. Highly violent, militarised and commodi-sed in Libya. This is having a deterrent effect on demand. In both locali-es, it is the migrant who is criminalised rather than the smuggler.

• 3. Towards an Integrated Response

Poli%cal Will / Capacity Market Consolida%on Libya Ethiopia Niger Turkey Ethiopia Full Package Pay as you go Greece Turkey Egypt

Opportunities for engagement

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA Eritrea Sudan

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Analyzing the Industry

Egypt

Price Quan%ty

D S S: Supply of Smugglers D: Demand for Smuggling Services

Size of the Smuggling Industry

Price Quantity

D1 S1 D2 S2 S: Supply of Smugglers D: Demand for Smuggling Services

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Impact of Security Strategies

Price Quantity

DEA S

S: Supply of Smugglers DEA: Demand for Smuggling Services amongst primarily economic migrants

DR

DR: Demand for Smuggling Services amongst refugees DWA: Demand for Smuggling Services amongst primarily economic migrants

DWA QR QEA QWA

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Shifting the Demand Curve

HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA HUMAN SMUGGLING FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA

Integrated Responses

• Thanks. Questions?

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