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Distance to change: LCA as a conserving/innovative tool the case of the green prestigious project “AMAGER BAKKE”
PRESENTATION AT LCM 2017; ENERGY AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS; CHALLENGES AND METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS SØREN LØKKE
the case of the green prestigious project AMAGER BAKKE PRESENTATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
the case of the green prestigious project AMAGER BAKKE PRESENTATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Distance to change: LCA as a conserving/innovative tool the case of the green prestigious project AMAGER BAKKE PRESENTATION AT LCM 2017; ENERGY AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS; CHALLENGES AND METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS SREN LKKE A vision of an
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The case in five points
- Incineration plant worn out
- Meanwhile: waste strategy becomes resource strategy
- Copenhagen Municipality: new plant needs to be ‘not too big’,
- The public company insists in building a large capacity plant
and succeeds
- With finished plant, waste volumes low, waste-import
necessary for plant economy. WHAT role did LCA play?!
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Events in the AMAGER BAKKE project
EVENTS IN DECISION PROCESS ASSESSMENT DOCUMENTS LOBBY PROCESSES
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EVENTS IN DECISION PROCESS ASSESSMENT DOCUMENTS LOBBY PROCESSES
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EVENTS IN DECISION PROCESS ASSESSMENT DOCUMENTS LOBBY PROCESSES
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The general system modelled in the relevant screenings
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Devil in the details…
- Modelling of avoided Heat and electricity: what future?
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Devil in the details…
- Modelling of avoided Heat and electricity: what future?
Incineration scenario 1 Incineration scenario 2 Incineration scenario 3 Scenario- name
Danish Average district heating Natural Gas district heating CPH district heat network
Substituted electricity
Country average marginal supply according to the Danish Energy agency. Predominantly coal: 960 g CO2/kWh & 720 kg CO2/Ton waste Concealed calculation on specific Copenhagen marginal: 1031 g/kWh & 719 kg CO2/Ton waste
Substituted district heat
Country average marginal supply according to the Danish Energy agency. Predominantly coal: 200 g/kWh & 415 kg CO2/Ton waste Natural gas: 240 g CO2e / kWh & 500 kg CO2/Ton waste Concealed calculation on specific Copenhagen marginal: 20 g CO2 /kWh & 190 kg CO2/Ton waste
Substituted metal
Assumed transported to Sweden with a net avoided 2.4 kg CO2 per kg metal & 60 kg CO2/Ton
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Devil in the details…
- Modelling of avoided Heat and electricity: what future?
- Avoided electricity production: 1 kg CO2/kWh – is it reasonable to model
avoided electricity as pure coal?
- Actual electricity mix (containing constrained technology) gives approx.
0.5 kg CO2/kWh
- Long term marginal is in Denmark is 80% wind 7% wood 13%
photovoltaic, giving a very low marginal supply (current tech: 9 g CO2/kWh)
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Devil in the details…
- Modelling of avoided Heat and electricity: what future?
- Avoided electricity production: 1 kg CO2/kWh – is it reasonable to model
avoided electricity as pure coal?
- Actual electricity mix (containing constrained technology) gives approx.
0.5 kg CO2/kWh
- Long term marginal is in Denmark is 80% wind 7% wood 13%
photovoltaic, giving a very low marginal supply (current tech: 9 g CO2/kWh)
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Devil in the details…
- Modelling of avoided heat and electricity: what future?
?
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Actions not taken…
- EIA does not contain LCA-information even though:
A EIA shall demonstrate, describe, and evaluate the plant's direct and indirect effects on:
- human beings, fauna and flora
- soil, water, air, climate and landscape
- material assets and cultural heritage, and
- the interaction between these factors
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Actions not taken…
The EIA of Amager Bakke states: “At Amagerforbrænding utilized heat from incineration for production of electricity and district heating, which is distributed and resold to customers. In addition to the direct CO2 emissions from waste incineration facility thus also contribute to CO2
reductions at the same time in the form of electricity and district
heating, displacing similar works on conventional
power plants”
Faulty lifecycle thinking
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Return to the modelling (being slightly unfair)
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Return to the modelling
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Waste generation Low quality waste Incineration Bottom ash
Electricity Production Heat Production Metal Recycling Electricity Production Heat Production Metal Production
Avoided production
High quality waste
Preventing waste, Design for reuse, Design for recycling
Recycling
Plastics/composites Metals Bio fuels / biomaterials Plastics Metals Biomaterials
Avoided production
A more comprehensive approach…
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Conclusions
- LCA is (wrongly) reduced to
“cover-decision-makers-back”.
- LCA conclusions are used in arguments beyond assumptions
validity.
- LCA should become integrate part of EIA.
- Scenario modelling & Consequential decision-supporting
approach obligatory
- LCA is strong for system-analysis & proof of concept – so do it!
ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS
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