The Age of Food: feeding the world in the era of peak people JULIAN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Age of Food: feeding the world in the era of peak people JULIAN CRIBB FTSE HORTICULTURE NEW ZEALAND CONFERENCE 2015 ROTORUA, JULY 28, 2015 Food will change ... Food will change more in the next 100 years than it has in the last
JULIAN CRIBB FTSE HORTICULTURE NEW ZEALAND CONFERENCE 2015 ROTORUA, JULY 28, 2015
Food will change more in the next
100 years than it has in the last 1000
2100 menu ‘unrecognisable’ to
today’s consumer
Change driven by: fierce supply/demand pressures global scarcities changing climates growing health and social
impacts
new science & technologies
200,000 more people/day More babies + longer lives Rich eat 35,000 more meals Population >11 bn by 2100 Meat demand soaring in NICs Food demand +100% by 2060s
‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’ ‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak Phosphorus’ ‘Peak fish’ ‘R&D drought’ ‘Capital drought’ ‘Climate extinction’
Disappearing rivers Vanishing lakes Groundwater mining Shrinking glaciers
“By 2030, demand for water could be 40% greater than supply available” – UN Report, 2015.
‘As a typical meat-eating,
beer-swilling, milk-guzzling Westerner, I consume as much as a hundred times my own weight in water every day.” Fred Pearce
Average human uses 1386 t
water / year Food Litres to grow Slice of bread 40 litres Tomato 13 litres Cup of coffee 140 litres Glass of milk 200 litres Egg 135 litres Glass of wine 120 litres Kilo of grain 1.5 tonnes Cotton T-shirt 4 tonnes 1 kg chicken 6 tonnes 1 kg grainfed beef 15 tonnes 100,000 t a lifetime
Sources: Lindlahr 1914, USDA 1963, 1997.
By 2050... 7.7 billion will live in cities Total urban area = China Urban water use 2800 cu kms Cities cannot feed themselves
By 2030...
Food & oil prices are in lockstep Food and oil prices: locked together:
Peak phosphorus
5 < 30-50% of world’s food is currently wasted or lost post-harvest Sources of artificial fertilisers will be scarce by 2050 >
“The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s
reached .” - FAO
90% of fisheries ‘fully-fished or
Source: FAO SOFIA 2014
World sea fish catch Peak fish
35 R&D stagnation
World food R&D spend
Stagnant crop yields
Every meal costs the Planet:
2 people in 3 now die of a diet-
related disease (The Lancet, 2012)
Food kills 6x more people than
tobacco
75% of healthcare costs linked to
chronic disease
1.4bn overweight/obese Diabetes: world’s 7th largest killer
by 2030 (WHO)
Food deaths are
F
Holocene climate is extinct 5o of warming : 50% less food? Arable farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2o Rising risk of regional famines
+ 4-5o C warming by 2100
To more double global food output with:
management
MiljoGartnieret, Norway Blue Farms, Sydney
Farmed fish Wild fish
By 2050 water plants (algae) will be the world’s largest crop: health food, stockfeed, transport fuel, plastic, textiles, chemicals, paper etc
http://foodplantsinternational.com
2011: first synthetic sausage 2013: first synthetic hamburger 2020: health profiled ‘meat’
Food Year in every junior school on
Teach respect for food: how to eat for
OR?